How to Build the Perfect 2018 March Madness Second Chance Bracket

History predicted Virginia’s downfall. What can it tell us about the Sweet Sixteen and beyond?

Perhaps your March Madness bracket is busted or you’re joining a Second Chance bracket tournament. Maybe you’re narrowing down your Survivor pool options or heading to a weekend in Vegas. Heck, maybe you just want to impress your friends with some sweet hoops knowledge. Whatever the reason, you’ve come to the right place.

Last week, history gave us all sorts of red flags for #1 overall seed Virginia, told us to be worried about North Carolina in round two, and warned us of a possible Buffalo over Arizona upset. It also gave us a dangerous Syracuse sleeper and a huge upside Kentucky team. And sure, it gave us Michigan State too, but it wouldn’t be Madness if history taught us everything.

School history, coach performance, seed expectations, and preseason expectations can often tell us just as much about these upcoming games as the teams themselves. So what can we learn about the Sweet Sixteen and beyond as we build the perfect Second Chance bracket?

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Kansas vs (5) Clemson

It’s obviously pretty common for a Sweet Sixteen matchup featuring a 1 seed versus a 4 or 5 seed, but you should know that those 1 seeds are an impressive 69–22 historically in those matchups. That’s an impressive 76% win rate, including 10–0 by 1 seeds the last three years. If you look at just 1 vs 5 seeds, they’re an even more dominant 36–7, an 84% win rate. For comparison, that’s almost the exact same win rate historically of 3 vs 14 seeds in the first round.

Clemson is going to slow things down, play defense, and hope to steal this. They looked as hot as anyone opening weekend, but don’t forget this team was unranked in the preseason and is still only 9–6 since losing Donte Grantham. Bill Self is 29–5 in odd rounds with a week to prepare, but just 16–13 in even rounds with one day. He’s made nine Elite Eights but gone an awful 2–7 in them, including 1–6 as a favorite, and that one win was by two points as a 1 seed against 10 seed Davidson. The Elite Eight is Bill Self’s bugaboo. But Kansas is a clear favorite in this one.

(2) Duke vs (11) Syracuse

Historically, 11 seeds are 7–13 in the Sweet Sixteen. That’s not bad, but they’re just 2–12 against 2 seeds and the games usually aren’t that close. Only one play-in team has ever gone past the Sweet Sixteen. Syracuse already grinded out three close, ugly wins with a team most thought shouldn’t have made the tournament. They could win two more, but don’t bank on it. Over the last 25 years, 2 seeds against 4+ seeds are 28–3 in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke is the only remaining team with both a top ten offense and defense on KenPom. They’re also the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation, and that should crush the Syracuse zone. Don’t forget, Coach K has spent a few summers now watching Jim Boeheim teach the 2–3 zone, and he has his own team playing it now. Unlike that Izzo disaster, Duke will be ready for the zone.

MIDWEST ANALYSIS

This looks like the easiest bracket to predict. Clemson making the Final Four seems like a stretch for a banged up team without a ton of talent, and Brad Brownell would have to out-coach Bill Self and then Krzyzewski or Boeheim. Syracuse is just outmatched. It feels like we’re getting that Kansas-Duke matchup, and Duke should dominate the boards and head to San Antonio.

Duke 56% Kansas 28% Clemson 13% Syracuse 3%

EAST REGION

(1) Villanova vs (5) West Virginia

The seeding heavily favors Villanova here, with all the same numbers as the Kansas section above. Remember, 1 seeds in this matchup have the same win rate as a 3/14 first round game, and you should never pick an upset in that game unless you have a very strong reason.

Villanova is the nation’s #1 offense. They never turn it over, they take good shots, and they rebound well. West Virginia, as always, is all about forcing turnovers and making teams uncomfortable. And if any team in the nation should feel comfortable, it’s the one with likely National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson running point. If the Mountaineers can’t force turnovers, they could get into foul trouble instead, and they tend to let opponents get pretty good looks. This is a matchup that favors Villanova unless they get flustered or Brunson gets in foul trouble.

(2) Purdue vs (3) Texas Tech

You’d think 2/3 matchups are coin flips in the Elite Eight, but that has not been the case. Actually 2 seeds are an impressive 26–14 in such matchups, winning almost two-thirds of the time.

Purdue shoots a lot of threes this season and should shoot even more with Isaac Haas likely sidelined. They’ve been a poor rebounding team this season, and again that problem should compound without their big man. Texas Tech relies on their pesky defense to force turnovers, and they’re an excellent rebounding team. Those two things favor the Red Raiders, and it’s easy to imagine Tech’s talented freshmen Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver overwhelming Purdue with athleticism.

Keep an eye on the foul situation. Tech’s aggressive style tends to get them into foul trouble, while Purdue barely ever fouls and Tech scores a lot of its points at the line. How close the refs call this one will be a big factor.

This should be Friday’s best game. History favors the 2 seed, but the matchup tilts slightly in Tech’s direction.

EAST ANALYSIS

It looks like Villanova should head to the Elite Eight, but they’ll face a difficult stylistic test from Purdue or Texas Tech. Both opponents slow things down and play tough defense, and that’s the sort of team that’s given Nova problems in the past. In Jay Wright’s 11 tournament losses with the Wildcats, their highest point total is 71. Either of these teams could slow the game down, limit scoring, and pull off the upset to head to their first modern Final Four. In the Elite Eight, 1 seeds versus 2 and 3 seeds are just 35–32. It’s a coin flip. Villanova looks like the favorite out East, but only slightly.

Villanova 39% Purdue 26% Texas Tech 23% West Virginia 12%

SOUTH REGION

(5) Kentucky vs (9) Kansas State

This is one of two matchups featuring a 4 or 5 seed against an 8 or 9 seed. There’s not a ton of history here, but the 4 and 5 seeds are just 7–8 in such games. Typically 8 and 9 seeds that make it this far are major conference teams who’ve been up and down but have obviously peaked at the right time. That’s not necessarily true for Kansas State, the first ever 8 or 9 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen without beating a 1 seed. They outlasted an ugly game against 16 seed UMBC.

Kansas State’s Bruce Weber is 1–2 in the Sweet Sixteen, and his only significant upset win was an 11/3 upset with Southern Illinois in his first tournament. John Calipari is an incredible 18–0 when favored by two or more seeds. That plays to Kentucky’s advantage in both potential South games. Kentucky will also be a de facto home team in an Atlanta regional featuring two Midwestern teams and Nevada. Atlanta may be 90% blue. On top of that, Kansas State is a terrible defensive rebounding team that fouls a lot, and Kentucky is top 10 at offensive rebounding and drawing fouls.

Seed history says this matchup is even. But eye test, coaching history, location, matchup, and talent all favor Kentucky by a sizable margin.

(7) Nevada vs (11) Loyola-Chicago

We discussed 11 seeds with Syracuse; they’re just 7–13 in the Sweet Sixteen. But they’re an impressive 5–1 when they’re not playing a 2 seed, the expected draw. Three 11 seeds with this draw won not only this game but another one, the next against a 1 seed, and went on to the Final Four: 2011 VCU, 2006 George Mason, and 1986 LSU. And 7 seeds are just 1–3 as Sweet Sixteen favorites. None of that is worth a whole lot with such a small sample size, but it’s clear the seeding shouldn’t point us in either direction.

Nevada is the #1 handling team in the nation. They’ll bring a top 25 offense against Loyola’s top 25 defense, while Loyola finds good shots on offense and Nevada’s defense is just okay. Loyola could have a rebounding advantage, but this looks like a pretty tight matchup overall. Expect a close game that may just come down to late game execution.

SOUTH ANALYSIS

The seeding says this region should be a complete toss-up. Never in history have we seen the 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds all knocked out before the Sweet Sixteen in one region. But history doesn’t see how good this Kentucky roster is, and it doesn’t know that Kentucky’s seed just doesn’t matter in March. Calipari’s young teams tend to struggle early before rounding into form late, and this is his youngest team ever but they’ve hit their stride. Treat Kentucky like a 1 or 2 seed and view them as a big favorite in this region and the safest Final Four bet remaining. They’re just better than the other three teams.

Kentucky 62% Loyola 17% Nevada 13% Kansas State 8%

WEST REGION

(4) Gonzaga vs (9) Florida State

We already considered this seed matchup above in the Kentucky section, and it’s basically a coin flip. Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton is 0–2 in the Sweet Sixteen in three decades coaching. Mark Few doesn’t look much better for Gonzaga, just 2–5 in the Sweet Sixteen. But he’s 2–0 as a favorite, and three of those Sweet Sixteen losses are as a double-digit seed that already overachieved just to make it that far.

Gonzaga is the one West team and should have a solid location advantage (though you figure Michigan fans will travel and there will be plenty of L.A. transplants). The matchup favors the Zags. Florida State’s biggest strength is offensive rebounding, and Gonzaga is a much better rebounding team. FSU could struggle to score against a top Zags team, and Gonzaga should dominate the offensive glass. Duke is the only team left that’s top 10 in both offense and defense in KenPom, but Gonzaga is top 15 at each.

Again, like with Kentucky: seed history says this is a toss-up, but talent, coaching, location, and matchup favor Gonzaga.

(3) Michigan vs (7) Texas A&M

This is another time you should pause at the seeding before assuming too much. Historically, 3 seeds are 8–6 against 7 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen. That’s pretty close to a coin flip, so it doesn’t help us much here other than to tell us to throw the seeds out. On the entire left half of the bracket, the seeding is now even. Don’t pick based on seeds.

Texas A&M has only made one Sweet Sixteen in the modern tournament and lost by 14 two years ago. Michigan is 30–10 as a top 4 seed with three Final Fours and a championship, and John Beilein has been Mr. March lately with 4, 6, 7, and 7 seeds all outperforming expectations. His tournament losses have been by 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7. He keeps his team in the game.

Michigan is an awesome handling team, but that won’t be necessary against an A&M team allergic to forcing turnovers. Both of these teams rely on great defense and just enough offense, which should make this a tight low-scoring game. Michigan could force some turnovers, while A&M should have a solid rebounding and size advantage.

This is a very even matchup and may even slightly favor A&M on paper. It should be relatively low scoring and may just come down to who makes shots or executes late.

WEST ANALYSIS

This is the most wide open region, outside of Florida State, and it might come down to what you value most. Michigan has the experience and coaching advantage. Gonzaga has the best statistical profile. Texas A&M has the best NBA prospect and might be the most talented team with the matchup advantages. Any one of these teams could emerge, with an edge to Gonzaga since they have to win one less difficult game.

Gonzaga 37% Michigan 26% Texas A&M 23% Florida State 14%

FINAL FOUR PICKS

Midwest: Duke East: Villanova? South: Kentucky West: Gonzaga??

In the Final Four, 1 seeds against anyone other than another 1 seed are 20–10. That favors Villanova or Kansas, if they’re not facing each other. If Nova or KU reaches the title game, 1 seeds are 13–5 there against non-1 seeds. On the left side of your bracket, you’ll get two teams seeded 3 or lower. In Final Four matchups featuring two non-top-2 seeds, the better seed is 6–1. Typically, the higher seed wins in the Final Four.

The national championship appears likely to pit a top 2 seed from the right half of the bracket against a 3+ seed from the left. Top 2 seeds are 10–5 in the championship matchup against 3+ seeds. Since 1990, only five teams seeded 3 or worse won the title game. And only one of them beat a 1 seed to do it.

Despite all the craziness so far, history says Villanova and Kansas are still the favorites and that all the underdogs on the left half of the bracket are likely just lining up as championship game fodder against one of those two or Duke. And isn’t Duke the real Midwest 1 seed anyway? They have the best roster on paper along with the best college coach of all time. They can’t possibly blow this now, no matter how big a reverse jinx we put on them… right?

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to the Washington Post and KenPom for their databases.