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our first rounds. But Jay Wright’s Wildcats would be only 2–5 with a line this high against 13 to 16 seed opponents. Radford plays the sixth slowest pace in the nation with an above average defense. They’re going to slow this thing down, and limited possessions should keep this line in check even if Villanova wins with ease.</p><h2 id="8479">Iona +20.5 vs Duke</h2><p id="d7a5">Outside of Grayson Allen, the rest of Duke’s key players are getting their first taste of March, and everything’s a little harder here, as they saw in the ACC tournament. The MAAC would be 30–8 all time against a 20.5-point spread. Iona likes to play fast, and that tempo could get them into trouble if Duke starts hitting shots, but they should stay close enough.</p><h2 id="bce0">Buffalo +9 vs Arizona</h2><p id="b022">Arizona is the last team remaining from the Conference of Champion(s?), but they’ve been hot and have potential #1 pick DeAndre Ayton ready to rumble. Ayton is five inches taller than anyone on Buffalo’s roster, and that could be trouble. But in the MAC’s 20 games as a 12 to 14 seed, the conference has won seven times and lost by seven or fewer another seven times. That’s a 70% cover rate on a line like this, so go with history.</p><h2 id="241c">North Carolina State +125 outright vs Seton Hall</h2><p id="2d92">Who can ever figure out these 8/9 matchups? Seton Hall was a preseason top 25 team and has been more consistent, but NC State has wins against Arizona, Duke, and North Carolina. This game feels like a coin flip, and coins should not give a +125 line. Play the odds.</p><h2 id="d4de">Penn +900 outright vs Kansas</h2><p id="e46d">Believe it!! 16 seeds are 0–132 lifetime, but Kansas is overrated and Penn is underseeded. The last Ivy League team seeded 16 came within a point of a win against Georgetown in 1989, and the Ivy has five double-digit seed wins this decade alone. Of course, Vegas has factored all of this in already. Kansas is just -1500 to win, compared to fellow 1 seed Virginia at -10000 in some books, so these odds are not in your favor. But think of the history. Don’t you want to be the one holding the historic winning 16 seed ticket?</p><div id="0a28" class="link-block"> <a href="https://readmedium.com/trade-in-your-march-madness-bracket-pool-for-a-fantasy-draft-college-basketball-hoops-ncaa-2018-a3b0d5c6ced5"> <div> <div> <h2>Trade in your March Madness bracket pool for a fantasy draft!</h2> <div><h3>Why not fantasy draft in March too??</h3></div> <div><p></p></div> </div> <div> <div style="background-image: url(https://miro.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:320/1*XPbszuaJE_vN7yxN8e_K3g.jpeg)"></div> </div> </div> </a> </div><h1 id="f767">10 Tournament Prop Bet Winners</h1><h2 id="6690">Florida +165 to make the Sweet Sixteen, +1800 Final Four, or +10000 national champions</h2><p id="44b0">If you’re looking for a lower seed to make a run, Florida is your team. Florida is 28–11 as a 3 to 6 seed, meeting or exceeding seed expectations nine of 12 times. They were a top-10 preseason team and beat Gonzaga and Cincinnati early before running into some tough luck in conference play. The Gators are a veteran team that made an Elite Eight run last year, they shoot and handle the ball, and they’re well-coached. Florida has a tricky opener but presents a difficult stylistic matchup for Texas Tech, Purdue, and Villanova, so they could make a deep run if things click.</p><h2 id="e119">Kentucky +800 Final Four or +2500 national champions</h2><p id="0198">Always bet on John Calipari in March. Cal coaches very young teams that often struggle early, but he always has them ready for the tournament and has proven that seeding just doesn’t matter for this team. Cal UK is 26–6 in seven tournaments with an incredible six Elite Eights and four Final Fours. All six losses have been by seven points or less, and four of the losses have been to a 1 seed or the eventual champion. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has figured things out, and Kentucky is going to be a tough play.</p><h2 id=

Options

"6387">Michigan State Final Four +235</h2><p id="62ce">When in doubt, pick Tom Izzo. Izzo as a 3 to 5 seed is 17–6 all time, way over seed expectations, and this was the #2 preseason team so they’re loaded with talent. Sparty is one of two teams that ranks in KenPom’s top ten in both offense and defense, and they’re one of two teams with two surefire NBA lottery picks. They’d be a favorite in another region, but the presence of Kansas and Duke in the Midwest push the odds in Sparty’s favor.</p><h2 id="9767">Butler Final Four +3000</h2><p id="2847">Can the Butler do it again? This is your best long shot Final Four team with yet another very Butler team. They play good smart basketball with an efficient offense, and they rebound well and protect the ball. Butler doesn’t beat itself, and its last six tournament losses are to three 1 and three 3 seeds. They’d have a rivalry matchup with Purdue in the second round, and they’re a terrible stylistic draw for Villanova and have given the Wildcats fits in recent years. The draw lines up well if Cinderella is ready to dance again.</p><h2 id="f306">Kansas misses Sweet Sixteen +225</h2><p id="6b85">Kansas is no stranger to being on the wrong end of upsets. As a 1 seed, they average just 2.7 wins, not even an Elite Eight berth, and that includes losses to 8 Rhode Island, 9 UTEP, 9 Northern Iowa, and 11 VCU. Bill Self’s Kansas teams have lost five times on opening weekend to a 7 seed or worse. Both Seton Hall and NC State are built to give Kansas a scare and, frankly, so is Penn. Every win will be a chore unless the Jayhawks just start hitting shots.</p><h2 id="6087">West Virginia misses Sweet Sixteen -130</h2><p id="d3bf">Bob Huggins is 8–9 in the second round lifetime with a flurry of choke jobs, and this has not been his best team, with a defense that isn’t quite up to par. This team still relies on forcing turnovers, and they got a brutal tournament draw. Murray State starts two point guards that should handle the pressure, and Wichita State is immune to pressure with four seniors and NBA prospect Landry Shamet. It’s very tough to see the Mountaineers winning both games, so this may be one of the better bets on the board.</p><h2 id="52d0">North Carolina +115 vs Duke wins or +1800 national champions</h2><p id="33c4">This is all about path. North Carolina is the de factor 1 seed out West. They play in Charlotte opening weekend and may then play a Michigan team they crushed this fall before facing Xavier or Gonzaga, two teams they’re just more talented than. Duke got a much tougher draw. They could likely face Michigan State and Kansas, two top-five preseason teams. Duke is the more talented team, but UNC has a much better path.</p><h2 id="e06c">ACC first-round winners under six +110</h2><p id="4752">You have to assume Virginia, Duke, and UNC win their games, so that means only two other ACC teams can win in the first round for this bet to hit. This is a bet against Clemson and Miami, two of the most vulnerable top seeds in the bracket. If both those teams lose, then it’s down to coin flip games for NC State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech plus a tired Syracuse team. If Clemson and Miami both lose, then three of those teams winning is a push and all four have to win to lose the bet. The ACC is top heavy.</p><h2 id="3202">Exactly one first-round buzzer beater +225</h2><p id="85e6">No math or stats here, just root for fun. Zero buzzer beaters if the favorite and six or more pays out +5000, but we’ll settle for just one buzzer beater winner.</p><h2 id="0edd">UConn women national champions -350</h2><p id="4f85">Because women play basketball too, and these UConn women are undefeated and absurdly good once again.</p><p id="a263"><i>Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i> <i>Thanks to the <a href="undefined">Washington Post</a> and <a href="https://kenpom.com/">KenPom</a> for their incredible databases.</i></p></article></body>

March Madness 2018

March Madness 2018 Betting Props and Best Opening Day Bets

Everything you need to dominate March Madness in Vegas, with Loyola and Texas Tech as Thursday’s best plays

March Madness is finally here, and that means 63 games of pressure-filled basketball from overworked and underpaid teenagers on the national stage with everything on the line. Your brackets are all filled out, but now it’s time to make some money back to cover all those pools you joined.

Everyone knows Virginia and Villanova are the best teams in the bracket, but what teams have the best odds to make the Final Four or win it all? And what are Thursday’s best bets as the games begin? Let’s find some answers.

Merry Christmas, everyone! Enjoy the games!!

How to Use March Madness History to Pick the Perfect 2018 Bracket

What can the ghosts of March Madness past teach us about this year’s tournament?

10 Best Bets for Thursday Games

Loyola-Chicago +110 outright vs Miami

This is pretty close to even odds despite being a 6 vs 11, and that’s because Loyola is probably just the better team. Miami is overseeded and never found its groove after Bruce Brown’s injury, and Jim Larranaga has been on the wrong end of a lot of March blowouts. The last five Missouri Valley teams seeded 8 or lower have each won at least one tournament game, and that includes a 10 and two 11 seeds the last two years alone. Loyola is the surest real upset of the first round. Don’t be surprised if they win going away.

St. Bonaventure +200 outright vs Florida

Florida is very good and a sneaky pick to make a deep run, but they’re streaky and this is a tough draw against a St. Bonaventure team that could’ve been a single-digit seed. The Bonnies already won the play-in game, and a play-in winner has won an additional game in every tournament since its inception. If that’s not enough, the last six Atlantic 10 teams seeded 11 to 13 have won at least one game. History is on the Bonnies’ side.

Kentucky -5 vs Davidson

Davidson is very good and a dangerous 12 seed. That St. Bonaventure stat works for Davidson in the Atlantic 10, too. But John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have been immune to upsets. Cal UK is 16–0 when favored by at least 2 seeds. Davidson will want to slow it down and give themselves a shot, but unless you think this is coming down to the final possession, Kentucky should do enough to cover.

Rhode Island -2 vs Oklahoma

You won’t make many friends rooting against Trae Young, but Young’s teammates are atrocious. Oklahoma lost eight of their final 10 and 11 of their last 15, and those impressive early season wins are long ago. Maybe Trae Young puts up 40 points and 10 dimes, but his teammates will probably give up 75 and lose anyway.

Texas Tech -11 vs Stephen F. Austin

Stephen F. Austin leads the nation forcing turnovers, and that probably works pretty well against Southland ball handlers, but Texas Tech is no Southland squad. Senior Keenan Evans should be calm and cool against opposing pressure, and NBA prospects Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver will give him any help he needs. Without the forced turnovers, SFA is just a sloppy team that fouls a lot. Texas Tech could run away with this one.

Radford +23.5 vs Villanova

Villanova won by 20, 20, 30, and 41 as a top 2 seed the last four first rounds. But Jay Wright’s Wildcats would be only 2–5 with a line this high against 13 to 16 seed opponents. Radford plays the sixth slowest pace in the nation with an above average defense. They’re going to slow this thing down, and limited possessions should keep this line in check even if Villanova wins with ease.

Iona +20.5 vs Duke

Outside of Grayson Allen, the rest of Duke’s key players are getting their first taste of March, and everything’s a little harder here, as they saw in the ACC tournament. The MAAC would be 30–8 all time against a 20.5-point spread. Iona likes to play fast, and that tempo could get them into trouble if Duke starts hitting shots, but they should stay close enough.

Buffalo +9 vs Arizona

Arizona is the last team remaining from the Conference of Champion(s?), but they’ve been hot and have potential #1 pick DeAndre Ayton ready to rumble. Ayton is five inches taller than anyone on Buffalo’s roster, and that could be trouble. But in the MAC’s 20 games as a 12 to 14 seed, the conference has won seven times and lost by seven or fewer another seven times. That’s a 70% cover rate on a line like this, so go with history.

North Carolina State +125 outright vs Seton Hall

Who can ever figure out these 8/9 matchups? Seton Hall was a preseason top 25 team and has been more consistent, but NC State has wins against Arizona, Duke, and North Carolina. This game feels like a coin flip, and coins should not give a +125 line. Play the odds.

Penn +900 outright vs Kansas

Believe it!! 16 seeds are 0–132 lifetime, but Kansas is overrated and Penn is underseeded. The last Ivy League team seeded 16 came within a point of a win against Georgetown in 1989, and the Ivy has five double-digit seed wins this decade alone. Of course, Vegas has factored all of this in already. Kansas is just -1500 to win, compared to fellow 1 seed Virginia at -10000 in some books, so these odds are not in your favor. But think of the history. Don’t you want to be the one holding the historic winning 16 seed ticket?

Trade in your March Madness bracket pool for a fantasy draft!

Why not fantasy draft in March too??

10 Tournament Prop Bet Winners

Florida +165 to make the Sweet Sixteen, +1800 Final Four, or +10000 national champions

If you’re looking for a lower seed to make a run, Florida is your team. Florida is 28–11 as a 3 to 6 seed, meeting or exceeding seed expectations nine of 12 times. They were a top-10 preseason team and beat Gonzaga and Cincinnati early before running into some tough luck in conference play. The Gators are a veteran team that made an Elite Eight run last year, they shoot and handle the ball, and they’re well-coached. Florida has a tricky opener but presents a difficult stylistic matchup for Texas Tech, Purdue, and Villanova, so they could make a deep run if things click.

Kentucky +800 Final Four or +2500 national champions

Always bet on John Calipari in March. Cal coaches very young teams that often struggle early, but he always has them ready for the tournament and has proven that seeding just doesn’t matter for this team. Cal UK is 26–6 in seven tournaments with an incredible six Elite Eights and four Final Fours. All six losses have been by seven points or less, and four of the losses have been to a 1 seed or the eventual champion. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has figured things out, and Kentucky is going to be a tough play.

Michigan State Final Four +235

When in doubt, pick Tom Izzo. Izzo as a 3 to 5 seed is 17–6 all time, way over seed expectations, and this was the #2 preseason team so they’re loaded with talent. Sparty is one of two teams that ranks in KenPom’s top ten in both offense and defense, and they’re one of two teams with two surefire NBA lottery picks. They’d be a favorite in another region, but the presence of Kansas and Duke in the Midwest push the odds in Sparty’s favor.

Butler Final Four +3000

Can the Butler do it again? This is your best long shot Final Four team with yet another very Butler team. They play good smart basketball with an efficient offense, and they rebound well and protect the ball. Butler doesn’t beat itself, and its last six tournament losses are to three 1 and three 3 seeds. They’d have a rivalry matchup with Purdue in the second round, and they’re a terrible stylistic draw for Villanova and have given the Wildcats fits in recent years. The draw lines up well if Cinderella is ready to dance again.

Kansas misses Sweet Sixteen +225

Kansas is no stranger to being on the wrong end of upsets. As a 1 seed, they average just 2.7 wins, not even an Elite Eight berth, and that includes losses to 8 Rhode Island, 9 UTEP, 9 Northern Iowa, and 11 VCU. Bill Self’s Kansas teams have lost five times on opening weekend to a 7 seed or worse. Both Seton Hall and NC State are built to give Kansas a scare and, frankly, so is Penn. Every win will be a chore unless the Jayhawks just start hitting shots.

West Virginia misses Sweet Sixteen -130

Bob Huggins is 8–9 in the second round lifetime with a flurry of choke jobs, and this has not been his best team, with a defense that isn’t quite up to par. This team still relies on forcing turnovers, and they got a brutal tournament draw. Murray State starts two point guards that should handle the pressure, and Wichita State is immune to pressure with four seniors and NBA prospect Landry Shamet. It’s very tough to see the Mountaineers winning both games, so this may be one of the better bets on the board.

North Carolina +115 vs Duke wins or +1800 national champions

This is all about path. North Carolina is the de factor 1 seed out West. They play in Charlotte opening weekend and may then play a Michigan team they crushed this fall before facing Xavier or Gonzaga, two teams they’re just more talented than. Duke got a much tougher draw. They could likely face Michigan State and Kansas, two top-five preseason teams. Duke is the more talented team, but UNC has a much better path.

ACC first-round winners under six +110

You have to assume Virginia, Duke, and UNC win their games, so that means only two other ACC teams can win in the first round for this bet to hit. This is a bet against Clemson and Miami, two of the most vulnerable top seeds in the bracket. If both those teams lose, then it’s down to coin flip games for NC State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech plus a tired Syracuse team. If Clemson and Miami both lose, then three of those teams winning is a push and all four have to win to lose the bet. The ACC is top heavy.

Exactly one first-round buzzer beater +225

No math or stats here, just root for fun. Zero buzzer beaters if the favorite and six or more pays out +5000, but we’ll settle for just one buzzer beater winner.

UConn women national champions -350

Because women play basketball too, and these UConn women are undefeated and absurdly good once again.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to the Washington Post and KenPom for their incredible databases.