How to Use March Madness History to Pick the Perfect 2018 Bracket

What can the ghosts of March Madness past teach us about this year’s tournament?

It’s March, and you’re looking for any advantage you can find to fill out the perfect March Madness bracket. Everybody reads KenPom now and anyone knows about advanced metrics and the Four Factors. So where can you find an edge now? Perhaps through the lens of the past.

The players change every year in college basketball, and so many wins and losses come down to a blown call or a 19-year-old’s mistake. The real star of the program is the coach, and school history and legacy give us a lot more data than just the few games this year. We can learn a lot by looking at a coach’s past performance, a team’s history in a seed range, and conference history. We can also help remove recency bias by taking a look back at preseason expectations and checking more than just the few weeks of games. Other hidden factors like time of day and location can play in, too.

History doesn’t always repeat itself — it’s March *Madness* for a reason — but the truth is that we can learn a lot about the future by looking into the past. So let’s stop messing around and give you everything you need to know to pick this year’s perfect bracket…

EAST REGION

(1) Virginia vs (16) UMBC

Virginia is really, really good. They play incredible defense and lost only twice on a loaded schedule in a brutal ACC, and they have absolutely earned their spot as the #1 overall seed in the bracket. But oh boy are there some major historical red flags.

Virginia is only 18–16 in the modern tournament, and we’ve seen iterations of this dominant defensive team fail miserably in the tournament time and again. Three times in the last four years, Virginia was a top 3 seed and they went just 6–3, eliminated by 4 Michigan State, 7 Michigan State, and 10 Syracuse. Last year’s 5 seed won once before getting blown out by 26 points. Virginia has only one win this century against a team seeded 7 or better. By seed expectations, they should have almost twice as many wins.

The optimist can find some silver linings. Those three losses to low seeds were against coaching legends Tom Izzo and Jim Boeheim, and they were all by four points or less. It’s March. Luck happens.

The pessimist sees a stylistic problem with Virginia. Their whole thing is slowing games down (slowest pace in the nation), playing outstanding defense (best ever in the KenPom era), and grinding wins out with smart, veteran players. But if you’re the best team in the country, you want more possessions, not fewer. Fewer possessions means less chances for your greatness to show separation. Fewer possessions means more chance. It means closer games and more opportunity for bad luck.

Virginia was unranked in the preseason, which makes them only the fourth team in history to go from unranked to AP #1 entering the tournament. The other three (1964 UCLA, 1966 Kentucky, 1979 Indiana State) all made the national championship game, but the first two only had to win two games to get there and the third one had Larry Bird.

Virginia is really good. They might be the best team. If we simulated 10,000 seasons or played best-of-7 tournaments, they’d probably be the champion. But the historical red flags are stacked against a run in 2018. That didn’t stop Villanova from defying odds two years ago. Can Virginia do it next?

UPDATE: Tuesday Virginia reported freshman sixth man jackknife De’Andre Hunter has a broken wrist and will miss the whole tournament. That’s a huge blow and will cost the Cavs a lot of versatility options.

(8) Creighton vs (9) Kansas State

Creighton’s biggest win ever was a 12/5 upset over Florida with Mike Miller’s buzzer beater, and most of their other success came from Doug McDermott. They’re 6–13 overall and 2–4 as a 6 to 8 seed.

Kansas State is 11–13 thanks to some good showings in the 80s but hasn’t done much since. Bruce Weber is 12–11 and does have some history with big upsets when he took 11 Southern Illinois to the Sweet Sixteen in his first tournament way back in 2002. He also led 1 Illinois to the finals. Neither of these teams looks a serious threat to Virginia in round two.

(5) Kentucky vs (12) Davidson

This four team sub-region may be the death of your bracket. Good luck choosing between Kentucky and Arizona, good luck deciding how far the winner should go in your bracket, and good luck if you overlook their first round games and miss the huge upset opportunity for both.

Kentucky has been incredible in the John Calipari era. Cal UK is 26–6 in seven appearances, nearly averaging a Final Four berth despite that including two 4s and an 8 seed. Cal UK is 16–0 when favored by at least two seeds, and they’ve made the Elite Eight in six of their seven tournaments and the Final Four in over half of them. In 14 years with Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari has only lost two times to a team seeded lower than 3.

This is the Calipari era, whether the NCAA likes it or not. Cal UK is a young team every year with a new roster that struggles early and pretty much always peaks in March, which frequently leaves them underseeded. Cal UK’s seed doesn’t matter. History says they’re a major threat from anywhere in the bracket, even though this is Calipari’s youngest team ever.

But they better not look past Davidson. This is a veteran team that plays slow and scores efficiently, and that’s a formula that could keep things close if the UK kids play Davidson’s game in their first outing. Watch out for the Atlantic 10. The last six A10 teams seeded 11 to 13 won at least one game in the tournament, all within the last decade. That’s Rhode Island 2017, La Salle 2013, Richmond 2011, and Dayton 2015, 2014, and 2009.

Calipari better have his kids ready if he wants to keep that pristine record as a favorite intact. If this team wasn’t called Kentucky, a bunch of freshmen against a dangerous underseeded Davidson team in a 5/12 game is the exact sort of upset you’d be looking for. Be careful.

(4) Arizona vs (13) Buffalo

Like Calipari, Sean Miller had been nearly immune to upsets… until the last few years. He’s 16–3 as a favorite, but all three of those losses have been in the past four years, two of them to 11 seeds. Miller is widely regarded as the best coach never to reach a Final Four, and his teams have a long list of heartbreaking losses to top 3 seeds: 2007 Ohio State and 2009 Pittsburgh with Xavier; 2011 UConn, 2013 Ohio State, and 2015 Wisconsin with Zona, all of them by an average of four points.

Arizona won their one national title as a 4 seed in 1997. They’re 11–5 as a 4 to 6 seed, though those six title-year wins disguise 11/6, 12/5, and 13/4 upset losses. Sean Miller and Derrick Williams led a 5 seed Zona team to the Elite 8 with a win over 1 Duke in 2011, if you’re looking for some recent hope. Arizona has the most talented player in college basketball and is a well coached very good basketball team. Is this their year?

They better not look past Buffalo in the first round. The Bulls made the tournament in 2015 and 2016 and lost by single digits both times, and five of the last nine MAC tournament teams have either won or kept the game to single digits. That includes 13/4 Ohio over Michigan in 2012 and 14/3 Ohio over Georgetown 2010. The MAC is almost always a dangerous opponent. In 20 times as a 12 to 14 seed, MAC teams have seven upset wins and seven more losses by seven or less. That’s a 70% chance of a close, dangerous game for the MAC. Now they just need to figure out how a roster with no one taller than 6'8" is supposed to guard real-life Nephilim DeAndre Ayton.

(6) Miami vs (11) Loyola-Chicago

Miami has only six appearances in the past two decades and only one upset win ever, a 6/3 win back in 2000. Jim Larranaga has a little history, memorably leading 11 George Mason to the Final Four, but his teams have often been blown out since. Larranaga tourney teams have lost by 20, 23, 10, 32, 18, 15, 3, and 24, an average defeat of 18 points. Don’t count on Miami for a long run, and when they lose, it may be ugly.

And it may be immediately, because Loyola is really good. This is Loyola’s first appearance since the inauguration of the modern tournament in 1985, and it’s almost always a good idea to consider a Missouri Valley Conference team for an upset bid. The last five MVC teams seeded 8 or lower have won at least one game, and six MVC teams this century have beaten a top 3 seed, all of them as a 7 seed or worse. If you’re looking for history’s favorite first round upset, you just found it.

(3) Tennessee vs (14) Wright State

This is Tennessee’s fifth time as a top 4 seed, and they were upset the previous four times by 3, 7, 8, and 12 seeds. They’ve made one Elite Eight and no Final Fours. Rick Barnes made the Final Four in 2003 but is a horrible 21–22 lifetime in the tournament, though he’s 18–8 as a favorite. The one thing Tennessee has on its side historically is that, in the Calipari Kentucky era, the best non-UK team is 20–8 and has underperformed its seed only once. That’s good news, but the Vols foul a lot, rebound poorly, and take a lot of bad shots.

They should be safe against Wright State. The Horizon League hasn’t won a game since Butler left, losing by an average of 14 points.

(7) Nevada vs (10) Texas

Nevada was in the preseason top 25 and has a pretty similar profile to Wichita State, so they may be a bit underseeded. They beat Rhode Island and Davidson and had close losses to Texas Tech and TCU. But history has not been kind to the Mountain West. Their 7 to 10 seeds are 9–15 with only one second round win (7/2 UNLV over Wisconsin in 2007) and six losses to top 2 seeds by an average of 18 points. Don’t be surprised if they impress in the first round but fall apart after.

Texas last pulled an upset in 2002, though they did have two 10 seed Sweet Sixteens in the 90s. They’re a disappointing 4–9 this century when they’re not a top 4 seed. Like Miami’s Larranaga, Shaka Smart is another coach you might talk yourself into after 11 VCU’s Final Four run, but Smart is 2–5 since and saw his team upset as 5, 6, and 7 seeds. Texas tied for second to last in the Big 12.

(2) Cincinnati vs (15) Georgia State

Cincinnati has only one Sweet Sixteen since 2001, and they haven’t made the Elite Eight since the 90s, when they got there three times. The last six times Cincinnati was a top 4 seed, they lost in the second round every time in 5/4, 8/1, 7/2, 6/2, 10/2, and 6/3 upsets. Mick Cronin is 5–9 lifetime. His highest seed ever was a 5, and that team lost in the first round. The AAC won a championship in its first year of creation while UConn and Louisville were still around, but the conference is just 3–7 since, and the three wins are against 8, 9, and 11 seeds.

Cincinnati plays awesome defense, forces turnovers, plays at a glacial pace, and sucks away an opponent’s will to live. But if you’re looking for a historical reason to love the Bearcats, there isn’t one.

The Sun Belt has a flurry of recent upsets over the past decade with three 12/5 wins and a 14/3, but they typically get crushed as a 15 or 16 seed and Georgia State was not their best team.

SOUTH REGION CONCLUSIONS

History is not on the side of any of the top 4 seeds, which could make for a wild and crazy South region. Tennessee is a slightly worse version of Cincinnati, who is a worse version of Virginia. The bottom half of this region could get messy, so jump on an underdog if you like one. Recent history loves John Calipari and Kentucky, but Arizona or Virginia could be in line to turn around bad luck. Pick one of those three horses and ride them a long ways, but good luck deciding which one.

WEST REGION

(1) Xavier vs (16) NC Central or Texas Southern

This is Xavier’s first ever 1 seed, though you might have forgotten they were a 2 seed just two years ago when they got upset by 7 Wisconsin in the second round. Xavier has the most wins in tournament history without making a Final Four, and this is their chance to be this year’s Gonzaga and change that. Chris Mack is 10–7, all with Xavier, with a history of nice upsets, but he hasn’t often been the favorite.

Xavier plays a tricky 1–3–1 zone defense, which has led them to be a more difficult play in even rounds with only one day of prep (though they lost in even rounds the last two years). There’s not much history can tell us here, though preseason (#17) and KenPom (#14) rankings suggest Xavier is probably more like a 4 seed than a 1. They’ll also likely be a crowd underdog in the West semis and regional final with Gonzaga somewhat local and plenty of UNC and Michigan transplants in Los Angeles.

The MEAC and SWAC are 6–56 all time. And that’s not even counting the SWAC’s brutal 1–8 record in play-in games which, of course, are all against 16 seeds. Ouch.

(8) Missouri vs (9) Florida State

Missouri is 16–19 lifetime and 3–7 as a 7 to 10 seed. Cuonzo Martin is 2–2. He did take 11 Tennessee to the Sweet Sixteen but benefited by not having to play the 3 seed, and he was upset 13/4 with California before bolting again. Of course, he’s never had Michael Porter Jr. before. Missouri lost #2 scorer Jordan Barnett to a DWI suspension, but Porter more than replaces that if healthy. Porter has played 25 minutes all season. Wouldn’t Missouri have been a 4 or 5 seed with him, if not better? There’s some opportunity here in the bracket’s weakest region, but it’s all on Porter doing something special.

Leonard Hamilton is one of the least successful coaches in modern March Madness history. He’s coached 29 seasons and made the Sweet Sixteen twice and never more, and that includes 2, 3, 3, 5, and 5 seeds. Look elsewhere before you pick Hamilton to make a run against guys like Chris Mack, Mark Few, John Beilein, and Roy Williams.

(5) Ohio State vs (12) South Dakota State

The Buckeyes are 32–18 all time but 10–10 when they’re not a top 2 seed. They’re 7–6 in this 3 to 6 seed range, underperforming despite a 1999 Final Four run as a 4 seed that beat 1 Auburn in Ohio State’s only real big upset ever. Chris Holtmann went 4–3 with Butler but has never beaten a seed higher than 8. Ohio State was crushed early in the season by Gonzaga and North Carolina, two teams they might have to beat in their own region to make a run. They’ve had a great season, but a long run may not be in the cards.

The Summit League is 1–10 all time, though the one win by North Dakota State was as a 12 seed. SDSU has made the tournament in four of the past six years with losses by 5, 8, 15, and 20. Mike Daum is one of the best players in the nation, but he’ll have his hands full against the gangly Keita Bates-Diop.

(4) Gonzaga vs (13) UNC-Greensboro

Gonzaga has a great tournament history, but until last year, they had been much better as an underdog. Gonzaga is an absurd 14–13 as a 6 seed or lower versus 15–7 as a top 5 seed, five of those wins coming last year. Don’t let recency bias convince you good Gonzaga teams always make a run; don’t forget the 9/1 loss to Wichita State in 2013 or the 10/2 loss to Nevada in 2004. Gonzaga has still made only three Elite Eights and just the one Final Four. Was last year’s run a breakthrough or just a one-year run with an awesome team?

Mark Few is 15–3 in the opening round (including an insane 7–1 as an underdog) but just 7–8 in the second round and 4–7 after that. That’s not terrible, considering how many underdogs he took into the second round and beyond, but it’s not particularly inspiring either. Don’t overlook Gonzaga’s Boise advantage opening weekend. Boise is only five hours from Gonzaga, and Gonzaga is the one true West team in the West region.

Greensboro is 0–2 lifetime in the tournament, but they do get to see a lot of good ACC and March basketball on their home court. Fun fact: Greensboro used to be a women’s college. The Southern Conference is 6–43 all time, though Steph Curry was half of those wins.

(6) Houston vs (11) San Diego State

Houston has a rich tournament history, but not in the modern tournament. They’re 0–4 in the modern tourney, and this is only their second appearance since 1992 and their best seed ever. The AAC is 3–7 since their inaugural year with wins against 8, 9, and 11 seeds. But Houston has Final Four coach Kelvin Sampson! Sampson is 12–12 lifetime with just three Sweet Sixteens, and he’s a putrid 5–10 as a 3 seed or worse, far below expectations. Think twice before you talk yourself into a long Houston run.

San Diego State is 6–9 but 0–4 as a double-digit seed. MWC double digit seeds are 1–20 all time. San Diego State was a bid thief no one was considering for the bracket. Why are they an 11 seed? This team beat Gonzaga in December but lost the game before to California, a team that went 2–16 in the awful PAC-12.

(3) Michigan vs (14) Montana

When you consider outstanding March coaches in the state of Michigan, you probably think of Tom Izzo first, but John Beilein has been really good too. Beilein is 6–7 as an underdog, and he’s 4–4 lifetime against top 3 seeds with those four losses by 13 points combined. Beilein took a 6 and 7 seeds to the Sweet Sixteen, another 7 seed to the Elite Eight, and a 4 seed to the title game. His tournament losses have been by 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7, and four of those were as an underdog. Beilein has his team ready and in every single game.

Michigan is 28–10 as a top 4 seed with three Final Fours and a championship. This team rolled through the Big Ten tournament, but how will they respond after a two-week layoff? One thing not in Michigan’s favor: they were unranked in the preseason, gathering just a few stray votes. Are they definitely great, or are they just a good team that got hot? It might not matter in March.

The Big Sky is 3–33 all time, and they’ve lost by double digits in 10 of their last 12 games, an average loss of 19 points. Montana has the Big Sky’s only win this century as a 12 seed in 2006.

(7) Texas A&M vs (10) Providence

Texas A&M is 8–8 with two Sweet Sixteens, both as a 3 seed. Billy Kennedy is 3–3 lifetime, with one big 13/4 upset when he was with Murray State. A&M doesn’t give us many historical lessons. They’re a stout D with a lot of size.

Providence probably should’ve won the Big East tournament and looks like the third best team in a conference where the top two both got 1 seeds, but that’s recency bias. The team’s offense is terrible and its defense is average, and the advanced numbers suggest Providence is a questionable at-large selection and probably should have had to win its tournament. The Friars had a memorable Final Four run in 1987 with Rick Pitino and an Elite Eight run in 1997 with God Shamgod, but they’re 1–7 otherwise. That one win is Ed Cooley’s only win, a buzzer beater in an 8/9 game. He’s 1–3.

(2) North Carolina vs (15) Lipscomb

North Carolina as a 1 seed is just about the safest bet in March, but this team lost 10 times including at home to Wofford, and they were a 6 seed in the ACC tournament. Roy Williams is 43–9 as a 1 seed with three national titles. As a 2 or 3 seed, he’s just 22–7 with three Final Fours, none of them at UNC. Carolina is 16–6 as a 2 seed in the modern tournament with one non-Roy Final Four, about at expectation. UNC isn’t necessarily bad as a 2 seed — they’re just not nearly as terrifying as a 1 seed.

Roy Williams is an incredible 46–8 in odd rounds with a week to prepare. But he’s 26–15 in even rounds with one day’s prep, including a suspect 18–9 second round record with three losses as a top 2 seed, all at Kansas. North Carolina will play their first two games in Charlotte with a heavy home crowd, and they’re the defending national champs. UNC has been the defending champion five times. They were upset in the second round twice, lost their opener once, missed the tournament completely once, and made one regional final. Ouch.

So which UNC do you choose to believe in? The one that crushed Michigan State, beat Duke twice, and beat up on Michigan and Ohio State and looks like this region’s de facto 1 seed? Or the one that lost Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, and Isaiah Hicks from a national title team without adding much freshman talent and the most losses ever for a 2 seed? Choose wisely.

But don’t pick them to lose to Lipscomb. They’re a fun story in their first berth ever, but the Atlantic Sun is 3–15 all time and Lipscomb plays a top 5 pace which spells death against all that UNC size and talent. Roy Williams is a perfect 27–0 in the first round.

It feels like the top 4 seeds are all about equal in this region, and there’s not much reason to believe in any of the other teams unless you want to talk yourself into a Michael Porter Jr. run. Xavier is the 1 seed. UNC is the de facto 1 seed. Gonzaga has the best statistical profile. Michigan is the hot team. All four have terrific coaches. History leans toward a Michigan-UNC game determining this region’s winner. Those teams met in November in Chapel Hill, and UNC went on a 34–7 run and led 68–39 at one point en route to a blowout victory. Their last meeting before that was the Chris Webber game. Could we get another classic?

EAST REGION

(1) Villanova vs (16) Radford or LIU-Brooklyn

Villanova is the “after” picture for Virginia’s “before.” Like Gonzaga last year, they finally broke through after years of heartbreak to win the whole thing in 2016, and now they’re one of the favorites to do so again.

Jay Wright is now 17–6 as a top 3 seed but that’s still an average of of under 2.5 wins, even after going 6–0 en route to a championship. Villanova has been a top 2 seed four consecutive years. They’ve made one Sweet Sixteen in that stretch, with 8/1, 8/1, and 7/2 upsets the other three times, and they were upset 10/2 the time before that in 2010. Yikes! Of course, 3 seed Nova made the Final Four the year before that. It’s all or nothing with these guys.

Villanova’s recent early losses have come against 8 Wisconsin, 8 North Carolina State, 7 UConn, and 10 St. Mary’s. These are all teams that slow it down, grind it out, keep it close, and hope to strike late. In 11 Villanova losses under Jay Wright, they’ve never scored more than 71 points. Only four of their wins have 71 or fewer points. This is the #1 offense in basketball, and they’re better than almost every team. Many of the teams that would’ve given them stylistic problems are in other regions this time — teams like Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Clemson, or Butler, a team they routinely struggle with in Big East Play. That team doesn’t exist in Villanova’s first three rounds. If you’re looking for a team that could beat them, think about Florida, Texas Tech, or Purdue in the Elite Eight.

The Northeast and Big South are a combined 1–49 all time, so at least we know Nova won’t be going home in the first round.

(8) Virginia Tech vs (9) Alabama

Va Tech is only 2–5 in the modern tourney, and this is their third appearance in the last two decades. Buzz Williams has a little more history, going 8–5 and taking two 11 seeds to the Sweet Sixteen. Virginia Tech is a high-scoring team that can catch fire, so they’re dangerous if the shots start falling.

Alabama has seen only one Sweet Sixteen since 1991, though they have a good history as a 7 to 10 seed at 9–7 with 8/1, 7/2, and 7/2 upsets in their favor. They’re a sloppy team that rebounds poorly and fouls a lot, but they play good defense and will go as far as Collin Sexton can carry the offense. This should be one of the more entertaining first round matchups, but both teams are severely lacking on one side of the ball against Villanova.

(5) West Virginia vs (12) Murray State

West Virginia is 18–11 over the past two decades, far outperforming seed expectations, and that includes a Final Four as a 2 seed. They’ve gone 11–8 under Bob Huggins. But Huggins has a long history and not a great one. He’s 17–6 in the first round but just 8–9 in the second with a quintet of memorable chokes with Cincinnati between 1997 and 2002. Huggins is an ugly 10–11 in even rounds, struggling when his teams have only one day to prepare. This is not your usual Press Virginia. The offense is better, but the defense is not as top notch as usual. And West Virginia got a horrible draw as Murray State, Wichita State, and Villanova are all matchup nightmares.

The Ohio Valley Conference is just 6–34 all time, but they’re 4–11 as a 13 seed or better with a pair of 13/4 upsets this decade, one by Murray State. The Racers also have a 14/3 upset and another two-point loss near-upset to their name. This is a team that starts a pair of point guards and handles the ball well, and that bodes well for their chances at a round one upset.

(4) Wichita State vs (13) Marshall

Wichita State is the new Butler, a loaded mid major who doesn’t feel like a mid major anymore. This was the #7 team in the preseason, so this is a talented team everyone expected to be good, though they’re probably slightly overseeded this time around.

Wichita is just a really tough March out. They’re 12–9 this century with only two teams seeded above 7, and those two both disappointed. Wichita has two 7 seed Sweet Sixteens, 10/7 and 11/6 first round upsets, and a 9 seed Final Four berth. And when they do lose, they lose to one of the elite teams in a close game. Their last five losses have been against four top 3 seeds and an 8 seed Kentucky that went to the Final Four and by an average of just six points. Wichita State starts four seniors and an NBA prospect in Landry Shamet. This team has not quite lived up to billing this year but they’ll be a very tough out.

Marshall has never won a tournament game. They’re a high-flying fast-paced team that runs every chance it can get, so this should be a fun game. Conference USA has been super hot lately, with 14/3, 15/2, and 12/5 upsets the last three years alone. If this were Middle Tennessee State, they’d be a favorite sleeper pick for a win or even two.

(6) Florida vs (11) St. Bonaventure

While no one was looking, Florida has quietly become one of the best March bets. As a 3 to 6 seed, the Gators are an impressive 28–11, almost 10 full wins above expectation. They’ve met or exceeded seed expectations nine of 12 times in that range including two 6 seed Sweet Sixteens, 3 and 4 seed Elite Eights, and 3 and 5 seed championship games. Last year in Mike White’s first tourney, Florida made the Elite Eight as a 4 seed, crushing 1 Virginia along the way. This is a team that’s used to March basketball.

It’s also a team that was preseason top 10 and super hot early in the season, stacking up wins against Gonzaga, Cincinnati, and Texas A&M before losing their way later and falling prey to a lot of bad luck and close losses, eight by six points or less. This is a veteran Florida team with guys who have made a sleeper run before. They’re streaky, so they could easily go out in the first round, but they’re also the sort of team that could streak all the way to the Final Four.

St. Bonaventure is 0–2 all time, and this is their best seed ever. Their two previous tournament berths were three and five point losses as a 12 and 14 seed, so they’ve gotten oh so close. As noted above with Davidson, the last six Atlantic 10 teams seeded 11 to 13 have won at least one game. The Bonnies are dangerous. They could easily make a Sweet Sixteen run if they get hot.

(3) Texas Tech vs (14) Stephen F. Austin

Texas Tech is only 5–9 in the modern tournament with two Sweet Sixteen berths. Their one other great team was a 3 seed that made it to the Sweet Sixteen before losing by two, so this has a chance to be their best team ever. Chris Bears is 1–1 with a 12/5 upset at Arkansas-Little Rock two years ago.

It’s tempting to think of Dallas as a huge home advantage for Texas Tech, but Texas is a huge state. Dallas is about as close to Texas Tech as Gonzaga is to Boise or Virginia Tech to Pittsburgh, and Stephen F. Austin is closer, so don’t put too much stock in that. Texas Tech relies heavily on two stud freshmen Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver, and they struggled down the stretch and make a lot of mistakes. They’re an upset candidate.

Stephen F. Austin scored recent 12/5 and 14/3 upsets in the last four years, but that’s their only tournament wins and Thomas Walkup ain’t walking through that door. This team forces the most turnovers in basketball, but Texas Tech plays against their own stingy defense every day in practice so they should handle the pressure.

(7) Arkansas vs (10) Butler

Arkansas is 8–12 as a 5 seed or lower with only one Sweet Sixteen. Mike Anderson has fared a little better. He’s 4–0 as a favorite and 5–8 otherwise, and he led a big 9/1 UAB upset over Kentucky in 2004 and got these Razorbacks close against eventual champ UNC in an 8/1 upset bid last year.

Butler is 21–11 this century, far outperforming expectations, and they typically don’t lose until they face a really good team. Their last six tournament losses have been to three 1 and three 3 seeds, and those losses were as 4, 5, 6, 6, 8, and 9 seeds and usually close. This is LaVall Jordan’s first tournament, but he was an assistant with Brad Stevens under the Todd Lickliter coaching tree, so this is the same old Butler. They’re stingy on D, efficient on offense, and always a tough tournament out.

If they get past Arkansas, a matchup against Purdue looms. These teams are only an hour apart and they hate each other, and Purdue’s Matt Painter is 1–4 against Butler. The one win was this season, but this is a team Purdue wants no part of. If these teams meet, throw the seeds out the window and get ready for a dog fight.

(2) Purdue vs (15) Cal-Fullerton

Like many of this year’s top seeds, Purdue does not have a lot of history on its side. Purdue has only two Elite Eights and no Final Fours in the modern tournament, and they have a history of coming up short in March. As a top 3 seed, Purdue is just 12–8, falling short of seed expectations all eight times with losses to 2, 3, 4, 6, 6, 8, 10, and 11 seeds. Last year’s 4 seed won a couple games before getting blown out by Kansas, and the year before, Purdue lost in the first round as a 5 seed. The history here is ugly.

Still, Purdue has a top five offense and a stout defense with lots of size and plenty of shooting. They lost only six games all year, and five of the losses were by four points or less. They’ll play the opening weekend in Detroit, but expect plenty of Butler and Michigan State fans to root the other direction. Can Purdue finally overcome its history?

They should be safe against Fullerton. The Big West is 1–19 all time, and Fullerton was a bid thief.

EAST REGION ANALYSIS

The 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this region are all a bit overrated, so Villanova has to like their path to the Final Four. History is not kind to any of the top seeds out East, while a trio of intriguing sleepers in Florida, Wichita State, and Butler have a lot of recent history on their side. This looks like Nova’s region to lose, but if they do lose it, it might be to one of the longer shots and not the typical top seeds.

A unique bracket methodology from Medium’s David Glidden

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Kansas vs (16) Penn

Kansas is 35–12 as a 1 seed. That might look good, but that’s an average of just 2.7 wins per appearance, which means 1 seed Kansas typically does not quite make the Elite Eight. Kansas did win the 2008 title as a 1 seed, but they’ve also racked up losses to 3, 4, 8, 9, 9, and 11 seeds from this spot in the last two decades alone to teams like VCU, Northern Iowa, UTEP, and Rhode Island.

Bill Self’s Kansas teams have been upset by 7, 10, 13, and 14 seeds in the last 12 years alone! Self is 28–5 in odd rounds with a week to prepare but just 15–13 in even rounds with one day. That includes an abysmal 2–7 record in the Elite Eight, and six of those games were as the favorite with only one win, a two-point squeaker over 10 Davidson. Bill Self in the Elite Eight is one of the surest things in basketball… for the other side.

Kansas was a preseason top five team, but they have six losses this year to teams that are double-digit seeds or out of the tournament completely. They have a heck of a home path through Wichita and Omaha to get to the Final Four, better than anyone in the country, but that hasn’t always helped them before. If you’ve made it this far into the article, you can’t possibly feel good about Kansas in round two or the Elite Eight.

Or maybe round one? The Ivy League has seven upset wins all time, including five this decade by Yale, Harvard, and Cornell. Of eight Ivy berths this decade, four of them won at least one time. Of course, Ivy teams usually aren’t 16 seeds like Penn is. The last time an Ivy was a 16 seed was 1989… when Princeton lost to 1 Georgetown by a point, 50–49. Penn is still a huge underdog, but this feels more like a 14/3 matchup than 16/1. If you’re looking for a long shot chance at the biggest upset in March Madness history, Penn is a team that could pull it off.

(8) Seton Hall vs (9) North Carolina State

This is Seton Hall’s fifth appearance since 1994, and they’ve lost four straight times. As a 7 to 10 seed, they’re 4–6, slightly above seed expectations, including one huge 10/2 upset over Temple. They were a preseason top 25 team so there’s some talent there.

NC State is 19–15 in the modern tournament despite only ever having three teams seeded higher than 5. Three times in the past 13 years, the Wolfpack have pulled off a huge upset and made a Sweet Sixteen run, including 8/1 over Villanova in 2015, 11/3 over Georgetown in 2012, and 10/2 over UConn in 2005. Kevin Keatts is 0–2 lifetime with losses the last two years by five and eight points as 12 and 13 seeds at UNC-Wilmington. NC State beat Arizona, Duke, and North Carolina already this year. The winner of this 8/9 matchup should give Kansas all it can handle in round two.

(5) Clemson vs (12) New Mexico State

Clemson has only one tournament win since 1997 and only two Sweet Sixteens. Five of their ten tournament losses have come to double-digit seeds, and they’re just 4–5 as a 4 to 6 seed, well below expectations. Clemson started out 16–3 before losing senior Donte Grantham to a torn ACL. They’re just 7–6 since and look like a prime candidate for an upset.

New Mexico State is 0–6 in the tournament this decade with an average loss by 13 points, though their two best seeds lost by three and four. They’ve lost nine straight tourney games and haven’t won one since 1993, and the WAC has lost 11 straight. History is not on the Aggies side. But this team did beat Miami and Davidson in December, and they’re a top ten rebounding and defensive team. This game will be low-scoring and close. New Mexico State should have a shot.

(4) Auburn vs (13) Charleston

Auburn is 12–7 all time, which is pretty good for a school that’s only ever had one seed above a 7 until this year. The Tigers have four Sweet Sixteens and one Elite Eight, but this is their first appearance since 2003. Bruce Pearl is 10–8 lifetime, about at seed expectation. He was on the wrong end of a 7/2 upset but also took 6 Tennessee to the Elite Eight in 2010. In the Calipari era, the best non-UK SEC team is 20–8 and has only underperformed its seed once. The committee thinks the best non-UK SEC team is Tennessee, but could it actually be Auburn? The Tigers haven’t been the same since losing starting forward Anfernee McLemore to injury.

This is Charleston’s first appearance this century. They are 1–4 all time with a 12/5 upset in 1997. The Colonial has a much stronger history, buoyed by Final Four runs by George Mason and VCU, but many of the top teams in the conference have left since those glory days. They’re 0–5 since the VCU era, though the last three CAA teams have lost by an average of just five points as 12, 13, and 14 teams. History tells us Charleston should be dangerous.

(6) TCU vs (11) Syracuse

TCU is 1–2 in the modern tournament, and their one win was in 1987. They haven’t even gone dancing since 1998. Jamie Dixon has a lot more experience, going 12–11 lifetime well short of expectations. That includes 8/1, 6/3, and 13/5 upsets, and Dixon’s teams have never exceeded seed expectation unless you count one 9/8 “upset.” TCU is missing point guard Jaylen Fisher to injury and has a brutal defense, so they either make shots or look ugly. They’re a prime candidate to be upset.

Syracuse has nothing on its resume to deserve inclusion into the bracket, but they could be dangerous nonetheless. Their slow tempo and outstanding defense is a tough tournament matchup, and Jim Boeheim is an incredible 20–10 in even rounds with only one day to prepare. That could play to Syracuse’s advantage in the first round too this year, since TCU won’t know its opponent in advance. Syracuse is 7–5 as a 6 seed or lower, of course including their miracle 10 seed Final Four run two years ago. The play-in winner should probably be the favorite against TCU.

(3) Michigan State vs (14) Bucknell

Tom Izzo is an incredible 47–19 in March Madness, all with Michigan State. He’s still far above seed expectations, even after the disastrous 15/2 upset at the hands of Middle Tennessee State in 2016. Izzo has made the Sweet Sixteen in 13 of 20 tourney berths, and he’s made seven Final Fours as a 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, and 7 seed. That’s a better than one-in-three chance that an Izzo team makes the Final Four, historically. Izzo is 26–14 in odd rounds and an absurd 21–5 in even rounds. If you have one day to prepare for Izzo, you’re losing.

As a 3 to 5 seed, Izzo is 17–6, almost double the expected win total. They’ve made the Sweet Sixteen all six such appearances and never underperformed seed expectations. Their six eventual losses were to Duke, UNC, and four teams that went on to play in the national title game.

Michigan State has a soft resume but excellent advanced numbers, one of two teams in the nation to rank in the top ten in both offense and defense on KenPom. They were the #2 team in the preseason rankings, and they’re one of two teams with two consensus NBA lottery picks. One possible Sparty bugaboo is turnovers. If they face a pesky defense with quick hands, they could lose their way. Otherwise, it’s Izzo and March, and you know what to do.

The Patriot League is 3–25 all time. That does include 15/2 and 14/3 wins over Duke and Kansas, so a Bucknell upset would not be totally unprecedented, but you can bet Izzo’s guys will be ready after their embarrassment two years ago.

(7) Rhode Island vs (10) Oklahoma

Rhode Island is 7–6 in the modern tournament, pretty impressive considering this is their highest seed ever. They upset Creighton in an 11/6 game last year and also have 8/1 and 11/3 upsets last century. Dan Hurley is 1–1, with that Creighton upset last year before losing by just three to a 3 seed Oregon team that would go on to make the Final Four. They appear to be overseeded, but a pesky defense that forces a lot of turnovers can cause problems for a team without great guard play.

Oklahoma is 2–6 as a 7 seed or lower. Lon Kruger is 20–17 with two Final Fours, but his teams have lost to a worse seed in five of his last six tournament appearances. Oklahoma’s Trae Young had the nation buzzing early in the year, but the Sooners fell apart late and have lost 11 of 15 heading into the tourney. They’re a one man team, but wow is that one man fun to watch. Davidson made their run as a 10 seed, and Trae Young is the college version of Steph Curry.

(2) Duke vs (15) Iona

Duke is dominant as a 1 seed, going 51–9 with four championships in 13 appearances. They’re only 36–14 as a 2 or 3 seed with one title, and their 2 and 3 seeds haven’t reached the Final Four since 1994. Since then, just one 2 or 3 seed Duke team has even made the Elite Eight. In the last six tournaments alone, Duke teams seeded in this range have been upset three times early on: 7/2 by South Carolina last year, 14/3 by Mercer in 2014, and 15/2 by Lehigh in 2012. Historically speaking, once Duke became “Duke,” they’re either a 1 seed or not good enough.

Coach K is 28–4 in the first round and 23–5 in the second. He’s 42–11 in even rounds with one day to prepare. Despite the recent upsets, Coach K has lost to a seed lower than 7 only three times in the past 22 years. That’s why those losses are so memorable, because they’re also super rare.

Duke was the preseason #1, and they’re one of two teams with a top 10 offense and defense and KenPom and one of two teams with two consensus NBA lottery picks. They’re the most talented team in the nation, and no one can match their ceiling when they start hitting shots, but there’s a reason they’re a 2 seed and not a 1. Can Duke’s talented young roster pull everything together for six straight wins?

They shouldn’t have to worry about Iona. The Gaels are 0–9 in the tournament, and the MAAC has never won a game with a seed this low.

MIDWEST REGION ANALYSIS

There are three college basketball giants in the Midwest, and you’re nuts to go with anyone else. A huge Duke-Michigan State rematch is looming in the Sweet Sixteen and would pit the nation’s top two preseason teams. Coach K is 3–1 in the tournament against Izzo, though he was the favorite in all four games. The winner of that game could get a matchup on short prep against Kansas and Bill Self’s terrible Elite Eight history. Both Duke and Michigan State have been maddeningly inconsistent despite all their talent, but either one of them could be the one cutting down the nets in April. Choose wisely.

FINAL FOUR PICKS

South

Virginia, Kentucky, or Arizona

West

Michigan, North Carolina, or Gonzaga

East

Villanova… or maybe Florida

Midwest

Duke or Michigan State

CHAMPIONSHIP PICK

Go with a team wearing blue. History is on your side.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, TV, pop culture, and life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here. Thanks to the Washington Post and KenPom for their incredible databases.