2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW
NBA Predictions, Tiers, and 2019-20 Season Preview
The NBA season is finally here! Let’s put some order to things, rank all 30 teams in nine tiers, and pick an MVP and a champ!
THE 2019–20 NBA SEASON IS FINALLY HERE! It was a long and wild summer that saw almost over $3 billion in new contracts and almost half of the NBA rosters overturned, but we made it. LeBron and Brow are really Lakers, Kawhi and PG are really Clippers, the Toronto Raptors are really champions, and they’re all tipping things off to start the season tonight.
So what all do you need to know about every NBA team heading into the new season? Let’s rank all 30 teams by tiers and break down their chances for the 2019–20 season, then pick an MVP and a champion. And let’s not waste any time either. In the words of the immortal Joker…
2019–20 NBA SEASON PREVIEW PIECES
- 10 important new faces in new NBA places and how they’ll look
- One Most Improved Player candidate from all 30 teams
- East and West win total over/under picks
- One intriguing new lineup to watch from every team
- Which NBA big men will suddenly start hitting threes this year?
- Unpacking the details from all the big summer free agent signings
TIER IX — BRING ON THE PING PONG BALLS
30. Cleveland Cavaliers 29. New York Knicks 28. Memphis Grizzlies
These three teams have one thing in common — they’ll all spend the season with an offense run by young handlers. For Memphis, it’s Ja Morant. For the Knickerbockers, it’s Dennis Smith, Elfrid Payton, Frank Ntilikina, or hopefully some R.J. Barrett. Cleveland’s got Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, plus maybe some Kevin Porter Jr.
And look, this is not a vote against any of those players long-term. The problem is they’re almost all 22 and under, and point guard has the steepest learning curve in the NBA, with most not really peaking until around age 25. Young handlers make a ton of mistakes, and that filters down to the entire team. It’s like an NFL team with a bad quarterback. It just ruins everything.
The Cavs are awful. Their defense is going to be atrocious. Kevin Love is the only thing going for them on offense, and it ain’t 2014 anymore. The Knicks have 17 power forwards but no semblance of a real NBA team or a future plan, but you can bet they’ll keep the cap clear in 2021 for all the free agents that won’t sign there.
Poor Memphis doesn’t deserve to be grouped group with those two. Their D should be solid, but the offense is a work in progress. The Grizz will be one of my favorite young teams to watch with Morant, Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr., and others, but they’re clearly the worst team in a loaded West and someone has to lose games.
TIER VIII — DEFINITELY BAD BUT NOT AWFUL
27. Charlotte Hornets 26. Phoenix Suns 25. Washington Wizards
The Hornets, Suns, and Wizards are definitely bad enough that they won’t be mistaken for a playoff contender but just-not-terrible-enough to avoid having the best odds for the #1 pick in next spring’s lottery. Yay?
I continue to believe the Hornets are more bad than awful. Charlotte doesn’t have a #1 or a #2, maybe even a #3. But they do have like eight legit NBA rotation players and depth at every position. Last year’s team went 39–43. This team replaces Jeremy Lamb with Malik Monk and Dwayne Bacon, which is fine, and Kemba Walker with Terry Rozier, which is, uhh, a downgrade. But is it really a 20-win downgrade? I don’t buy it. Charlotte is a team of adults that will make you earn your win and beat you when you don’t show up.
Can Phoenix advance to at least that stage? The Suns have won 19, 21, 24, and 23 games the last four years. The Warriors won more games than that in 2015–16 alone. Let’s not pretend the Suns will suddenly become competent overnight. Phoenix has a bottom-3 defense three years running. Can we at least get out of the bottom-5 there and try all year? I don’t ask for much.
The Wizards are a giant nothing burger, and I’m sad we are wasting a year of Bradley Beal’s prime on this 27-win season.
TIER VII — THE PLAYOFF DREAMERS
24. New Orleans Pelicans 23. Detroit Pistons 22. Atlanta Hawks 21. Sacramento Kings 20. San Antonio Spurs
All I want for Christmas is a healthy Zion. Honestly, I don’t even need that. Just please Santa baby, don’t let him Philly his rookie season, and don’t let this be the start of a long injury history. The Pelicans may already be buried by the time Zion does play with all that youth and a brutal early schedule, and the more they lose early, the less incentive to rush him back.
I really want the Hawks and Kings to be good, too trust me. Trae Young and De’Aaron Fox are super fun. Marvin Bagley and John Collins are springy. Buddy Hield and Kevin Huerter can shoot the daylights out of the ball. Weird, I never noticed until this very moment how similar and fun these teams are. But that also means similarly fast but inefficient offenses and young defenses that will finish bottom 10. These are those Teams You Don’t Want to Play in the spring, but we’re a year away on both.
Blake Griffin played 75 excellent games last year but averaged 55 the previous four seasons. Detroit is baaarely a .500 team with him playing All-NBA ball. Any injury or regression and the bottom falls out.
And then there’s the Spurs. There’s just no rational reason the Spurs should make the playoffs for the 783rd straight season. They’re not good on D. They have the worst shot profile in the NBA by a wide margin. DDR and LMA are stuck playing 90s ball. If this team had any other jerseys and any other coach, they’d be picked unanimously outside of the playoff picture. Instead, I’ve resigned myself to this looking idiotic when the Spurs win 47 games and keep someone interesting out of the playoffs. Pop is a sorcerer.
TIER VI — GUNNING FOR THAT 8 SEED
19. Chicago Bulls 18. Minnesota Timberwolves 17. Dallas Mavericks 16. Oklahoma City Thunder
Two of these teams make the playoffs. One will be the Bulls, thanks to the magic of the East. Chicago will be far healthier than last year, added two professionals in Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young, and has a roster that just makes sense, as long as Jim Boylen doesn’t turn into Thibs II. Chicago isn’t good yet, but they don’t have to be in the East to make the playoffs.
I expect an absolutely monster year from Karl-Anthony Towns as the focal point of the offense, at last. Add in healthier campaigns from Robert Covington and Jeff Teague, and this team will hang around and be better than you think. The Thunder have a playoff-caliber starting lineup. If they keep Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari all year and get 135 healthy games out of them, they’re a real playoff threat. They might well go youth movement at some point, but for now, we’ll assume the best.
And then there’s Luka, Kristaps, and a bunch of well-fitted but over-extended role players in Dallas. Who is the third best Mavs player? Is it Maxi Kleber or Delon Wright? Is it Boban? These pieces all make sense, but is it enough for Rick Carlisle (probably), and are Doncic and Porzingis ready (maybe not)?
TIER V — DEFINITE PLAYOFF EXPECTATIONS
15. Orlando Magic 14. Brooklyn Nets 13. Miami Heat 12. Indiana Pacers
You could almost convince me to swap this tier below the previous one. These are high-floor-low-ceiling teams. One of them will win an Eastern playoff series and get devoured in the second round. Another will miss the playoffs altogether. And if we’re being honest, it probably comes down to health.
I’m really not sold yet on Orlando. They have by far the worst guard play in the NBA among real teams, and it’s a guards league. Brooklyn minus KD is very meh. Miami has been the same thing every year since LeBron left, and Jimmy Butler loves to be the big fish in a mediocre pond. The Pacers are the team I like by far the best, assuming they get a relatively healthy Victor Oladipo back in time. But they’re also most at risk until he’s back.
These all feel like 38 to 46 wins, playoff contention with the help of a little geography, and ultimate irrelevance in the big picture.
TIER IV — TEAM CULTURE
11. Toronto Raptors 10. Portland Trail Blazers
This tier is, more than anything, meant to show the gap between the top of the league and everyone else. But let’s also appreciate two wonderful NBA organizations. The Toronto Raptors are NBA champions. Let’s say it one more time before the season starts: the Toronto Raptors are NBA champions.
Neither of these teams is measurably better than the teams below them fighting for the same playoff spots, but I’ll put them confidently in the playoffs either way. Toronto will make it there unless they choose not to, and Dame will get Whiteside, et al, in line. The Blazers have more upside than downside if they can get Jusuf Nurkic healthy and trade some of their contracts for another piece in February.
TIER III — BETTER AT LEAST WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES
9. Golden State Warriors 8. Utah Jazz 7. Boston Celtics
The Warriors dynasty is dead. I’m sorry you had to find out this way. It’s not just Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston are gone too, and this roster is seriously lacking on both ends. D’Angelo Russell doesn’t fit anything this team has done well in the past. There are few shooters and only one defender. There’s negative depth. Golden State might start Marquese Chriss and Glenn Robinson Jr. on opening night to baptize the new Chase Center. Life comes at you fast.
Maybe Steph drags them to the edge of the playoff race, Klay comes back, and the Ws are the team everyone tries frantically to avoid the last week of the season, jostling for playoff positioning. But I think there’s a very serious chance Golden State misses the playoffs entirely. The defense is going to be awful, even with Draymond. The offense will be top 10 on Steph alone, as long as he stays healthy, but far from elite. The Warriors, like the others in this tier, have a better chance of missing the playoffs than making the Finals.
I can’t talk myself into the Jazz. They made a huge swing to improve the offense adding Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, and that should improve spacing and help Donovan Mitchell be more efficient. But it came at the expense of defense and depth. Rudy Gobert will not have much help, and he’s also coming off 81 games and a long FIBA run. If Gobert misses 25 games, can this team survive? I think the defense could really drop off, and I see a lower ceiling and a lower floor for the Jazz than most. Theoretically they should have a top-10 offense with a still-top-5 defense. But is the offense improved enough, and can Rudy do everything on his own with so many liabilities around him? Utah wanted offense, but I feel like they made a deal with Thanos. What did it cost? … Everything.
I get a lot more excited about the Celtics. The team just makes sense this time around. Sometimes you have too many pieces. These pieces fit, and everyone will have a clearer role. Kemba will replace Kyrie just fine, and I trust Brad Stevens to get creative to replace the center minutes Al Horford left behind. Boston is absolutely the third best team in the East, and I think they’re closer to second than to everyone else.
TIER II — THE FAUX CONTENDERS
6. Houston Rockets 5. Denver Nuggets 4. Milwaukee Bucks
These teams can win a title — but only if the three ahead of them falter. I actually have these three teams at the top of the regular season standings. But, in the words of the immortal Draymond Green, these feel like 82-game teams, not 16-gamers.
Russ and Harden will work just fine in the regular season but not when it counts. It’s as simple as that.
Denver is really, really good. Nikola Jokic is great and will be on most MVP ballots. I have no nits to pick. They just aren’t quite championship caliber unless enough of the other contenders around them falter.
As for the Bucks, they’re going to win a ton of regular season games, Giannis might well defend his MVP, and none of that will matter if they get to May and try to play Wes Matthews, George Hill, Ersan Ilyasova, and Kyle Korver real playoff minutes in the year of our Lord 2019. The Bucks might have a top-3 offense and defense in season, but they’ll miss Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic when the games matter most.
TIER I — THE 2020 NBA CHAMPION
3. Los Angeles Lakers 2. Los Angeles Clippers 1. Philadelphia 76ers
And then there were three. One of these three teams will be your 2020 NBA champion. And if I had to pick one, I’d give the 76ers the best odds.
Unlike the Bucks, I think Philly will actually be better in the playoffs, not worse. Their defense will be nasty, they’ll get more time from their starting five, and all that length and physicality will be a serious matchup problem against almost every opponent. The Bucks in particular have no answer for Embiid, and neither do the Clippers, for now.
Look, it’s a math game more than anything else. I have the Sixers as a sizable favorite against every East team, in more ways than one. Now you’re in the Finals, perhaps as the underdog, but if you have a 50% chance of making the Finals in the East and a 40% chance of winning it, that gives you a better title chance than any West team with only a 30% chance of getting there but being 60% favorites when they arrive.
The Lakers are a three-man team. LeBron has never played with someone as talented and in-his-prime as Anthony Davis. Yes, those two alone can and will beat most teams. Those two alone give them a top offense, and Brow plus Danny Green is the start of a good defense. All of the other pieces around them are rubbish, but LeBron teams are always different at the end of the season than how they begin. This team makes no sense, no sense at all… and it just doesn’t matter if you start with LeBron and Davis. Only the Spurs and Warriors have beaten LeBron four times in seven games this decade.
But the Clippers are my pick to win the title if all the dominoes line up. The team has one more big trade to make, and no one can match Kawhi and PG if they’re healthy in May and June. If everything falls according to plan, the Clippers should win the title. But when has the sentence “If everything falls according to plan, the Clippers” ever ended well before?
FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS
1. The Milwaukee Bucks finish with the best record.
2. The Milwaukee Bucks do not make the Eastern Conference Finals.
3. Zion Williamson does not win Rookie of the Year. (This was admittedly bolder when it was written, a week ago.)
4. The Warriors or Jazz miss the playoffs.
5. We won’t get the LA-LA playoff matchup we wait all season for.
REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS
Top 10 offenses
- Milwaukee
- Houston
- Denver
- Portland
- L.A. Lakers
- Golden State
- L.A. Clippers
- Utah
- Minnesota
- Boston
Top 10 defenses
- Philadelphia
- Milwaukee
- L.A. Clippers
- Utah
- Boston
- Miami
- L.A. Lakers
- Orlando
- Toronto
- Indiana
East playoff seeds
- Milwaukee
- Philadelphia
- Boston
- Toronto
- Indiana
- Miami
- Brooklyn
- Chicago
West playoff seeds
- Denver
- Houston
- L.A. Clippers
- L.A. Lakers
- Portland
- Utah
- Golden State
- Oklahoma City
FINAL AWARDS AND PICKS
Sixth Man of the Year
Montrezl Harrell
Most Improved Player
Rookie of the Year
R.J. Barrett
Coach of the Year
Mike Malone
Defensive Player of the Year
Joel Embiid
All-NBA
First Team: Harden, Steph, Giannis, Brow, Jokic Second Team: Dame, Russ, LeBron, Kawhi, Embiid Third Team: CP3, Luka, Butler, Siakam, KAT
MVP
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2. James Harden 3. Nikola Jokic
FINALS — Clippers over Sixers in 6 ■
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