2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW

2019 NBA Eastern Conference Team Win Over/Under Picks

All 15 East picks from least to most confident, with the Knicks, Wizards, and Hornets as best bets…

THE 2019–20 NBA SEASON IS ONLY TWO WEEKS AWAY, AND THAT MEANS IT’S TIME TO TAKE STOCK AROUND THE LEAGUE. The East is still terrible. The Toronto Raptors won the championship but lost Kawhi Leonard. The Brooklyn Nets signed Kevin Durant but won’t have him this year. The Bucks, Celtics, and Pacers got worse. The 76ers got yet another makeover.

The East is always interesting because it’s so wide open. Last year the Magic made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons. This year, the Bulls and Hawks are dreaming big. The East’s upper middle class appears wide open, too. The entire conference looks different than last spring.

So which East teams will go over their projected win total, and who will go under? Let’s run through all 15 Eastern Conference teams and make some picks, in order from least to most confident. Don’t forget to check out the Western Conference over/under picks if you missed them…

THE STAY AWAYS

15. Detroit Pistons 37.5 — OVER

This is right where Detroit’s been the past three seasons, with 41, 39, and 37 wins, and it’s about where they should be again, on the edge of the Eastern playoff race. Every team ahead of them took a meaningful step forward, and none of the teams behind them did except for Miami. Yet again, the Pistons are just good enough to hover around .500 and flop out in the first round.

Derrick Rose, Markieff Morris, and Joe Johnson should add some heft to the bench rotation, and Blake Griffin might well have turned in his best all-around season last year. He also played his most games since 2014 and ended the season hurt. Will Blake stay healthy enough to play most of this season? That’s essentially what you’re betting on here.

14. Miami Heat 43.5 — OVER

The Heat won 44 games two years ago, bookended by 39 last season and 41 in 2017. The Heat return a lot of the same components from the last few seasons but upgrade Josh Richardson to Jimmy Butler, who struggles to fit in around real talent but who thrives as the best player on a mediocre team.

Hassan Whiteside’s absence is addition by subtraction, and Bam Adebayo could be a leading Most Improved Player candidate in his place. Miami should also get a lot more from Goran Dragic, who played only 36 games last year after an All-Star campaign in 2018. And don’t rule out the Heat making one more big move sometime this season for someone like Chris Paul or Kevin Love. They have every reason to push for the playoffs.

13. Boston Celtics 49.5 — OVER

The Celtics will certainly look different. Kemba Walker is in for Kyrie Irving, while Al Horford hasn’t been replaced at all. Horford was the more important Boston player and will be replaced by some combination of Enes Kanter, Robert Williams, rookie Grant Williams, and others.

The Celtics won 49 games last year, but it was a year from hell with all sorts of injuries and locker room discontent, and a thinner roster could actually mean more minutes and better defined roles for Boston’s best players. This feels like a team Brad Stevens can really sink his teeth into, and you can bet he’ll find a way to get them playing good defense even without Horford.

Kemba, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown all played together for Team USA, and in the past, that’s given players a nice boost heading into a new season. Forgotten man Gordon Hayward is two years removed from his horrific injury and could be in for a big bounce-back year, and the Celtics added some talented rookies. Stevens will get the most out of this roster. In the end, this is a bet on him making this work.

12. Brooklyn Nets 44.5 — OVER

The Nets were the big free agency winners, adding Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant for nothing more than salary cap room, but they’ll only get one of those guys on the court this year. Irving effectively replaces D’Angelo Russell, and the Nets did a nice job adding veteran depth like DeAndre Jordan, Garrett Temple, Taurean Prince, and Wilson Chandler.

They also add an in-house breakout candidate in Caris LeVert, who seemed on the verge of an All-Star campaign last fall before injuries derailed his season and left him playing only 40 games. Improved play from LeVert and Irving plus a deep bench and strong coaching make the Nets a clear Eastern playoff team, even without Durant.

GOOD BUT ARE THEY GOOD ENOUGH?

11. Milwaukee Bucks 57.5 — UNDER

The Bucks had the best record in basketball at 60–22 and return most of the core pieces. Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Eric Bledsoe are all back after signing big time extensions. Giannis Antetokounmpo won the MVP and nearly led the Bucks to the Finals, then said that he’s only played at 60% of his capacity. The only key losses are Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic, both of whom played muted roles last regular season.

All of that should mean plenty more wins for the Bucks, who look a clear favorite atop the East. So why under? Because 58 wins is a lot, no matter how good you are. Only four teams won 60 games the last three seasons, and none of them repeated. The Bucks should win a lot again, but they might not even have to, and they’ll have their sights set on bigger targets this season.

10. Orlando Magic 41.5 — OVER

While almost every other team underwent a summer makeover, the Magic return mostly the same roster. They’ll start the same five guys, and the only real addition of note is veteran Al-Farouq Aminu. Orlando found themselves in the second half last year and closed as one of the East’s best teams with an improved defensive effort and a monster year from Nikola Vucevic.

They bet on themselves after making the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons, re-signing Vooch and Terrence Ross to big contracts. Vucevic will have a hard time replicating his breakout numbers, and D.J. Augustin is coming off a career year, too. But where those two step back, Orlando could see improvements from other young talents like Jonny Isaac, Aaron Gordon, Mo Bamba, or even Markelle Fultz.

9. Philadelphia 76ers 54.5 — OVER

The Sixers could go way over this line. They could also struggle to mesh, play through injuries, and fall well short. For the umpteenth time in the past few seasons, the 76ers have undergone major changes. Jimmy Butler is gone no sooner than he came, and J.J. Redick has left too. Josh Richardson takes his place on the wing, and Al Horford was the surprise summer signing and gives the Sixers twin towers in Horford and Joel Embiid.

The Sixers will start four players that could contend for All-Defense. That defense will travel and that alone should give the Sixers a good shot at 55 wins. Joel Embiid may be the DPOY favorite and might still put everything together for an MVP campaign. Ben Simmons could end up in the mix too, if the jump shot rumors are real and he finds a better offensive role without Butler in the way.

There are a lot of ways for Philly to go over this number. We’ll see if it works in the playoffs, but they could be a regular season monster.

8. Toronto Raptors 46.5 — UNDER

The Toronto Raptors are NBA champions! But that ‘are’ will quickly become ‘were’ once the games start and the Raps have to play without Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Toronto didn’t bring in anyone of note, so they’ll rely on OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet to step into much bigger roles and rebuild the bench on the fly.

Toronto won 58 last year, so just how many wins is Kawhi Leonard worth? With all the recent player movement, we have plenty of data on star wings leaving teams. Jimmy Butler left the Bulls and saw them drop from 41 to 27 wins, and his Wolves departure saw them drop from 47 to 36. The Spurs lost Kawhi and dropped from 61 to 47 his injured season. These star wings are worth 12 to 14 wins, and that’s not even accounting for the loss of Danny Green. Toronto may stay in the playoff race, but 47 wins is a bridge too far. Don’t count out a fire sale and a reset if things start to go south.

THE VERY SOLID PLAYS

7. Indiana Pacers 48.5 — UNDER

Everyone is treating this like the same old Pacers, and that couldn’t be further from the truth. Outside of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, this is almost an entirely different team. Bojan Bogdanovic is gone after a career year, replaced by Jeremy Lamb, and Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are replaced by Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell. Those both feel like downgrades, and so is the swap of Thaddeus Young to T.J. Warren.

Victor Oladipo still has no timetable in his return from a quad injury. He could top out around 50 games and probably won’t be 100%. He played only 36 games last year, so it will probably end up a mostly even swap. Indiana lost a lot of defense, depth, and grit on this team. The bench could struggle to hold up until Oladipo is back, too. This is not a borderline 50-win team.

6. Chicago Bulls 32.5 — OVER

The Bulls are headed in the wrong direction. They won 22 games last year after winning 27 and 32 the previous seasons, so over-32.5 would be a sizable step in the right direction. This is largely the same roster Chicago had last year, but their key players all missed a lot of time. Leading scorer Zach LaVine missed 19 games. Young bigs Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. played 52 and 44 games, respectively. Chicago’s best player, Otto Porter, played only 15 games after the Bulls acquired him.

Chicago returns only 42% of its starts from a year ago. They also add grown men Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young to the rotation, plus exciting rookie guard Coby White. The Bulls are ready to take the next step, and they’re done tanking. They may even have a playoff shot in the watered-down East. Could Chicago be this year’s Eastern version of the Kings?

5. Cleveland Cavaliers 24.5 — UNDER

This Cavs season is all about figuring out their two young star guards, rookie Darius Garland and sophomore Collin Sexton. Garland is a virtual unknown against top competition after missing almost his entire freshman season at Vanderbilt. Sexton was horrible early last season before unsustainable shooting pushed him to a strong finish. Cleveland has labeled these two as their new Dame and C.J. pairing. Even if that’s true, it’s going to take time.

Garland and Sexton are 19 and 20. Young handlers almost always struggle in the NBA, and Cleveland is turning the team over to those two. They may also let rookie Kevin Porter Jr. handle some. These are the only potential Cleveland building blocks, and the Cavs need to find out what they have in these guys. A healthier season from Kevin Love will help, but teams with bad, young point guards just don’t win in the modern NBA. The Cavs owe their first-round pick to Atlanta if it falls outside the top 10. Cleveland has every incentive to play their youth and lose as much as they can, and they will.

4. Atlanta Hawks 34.5 — UNDER

For the first time in forever, there is palpable buzz about an Atlanta Hawks team. Sophomore guards Trae Young and Kevin Huerter lead the way, a junior Splash Brothers in the making. Now Atlanta added its two forwards of the future, drafting De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the top 10 as a defensive stopper and a wing shooter. That intriguing quartet makes Atlanta interesting and fun, and we didn’t even mention future All-Star John Collins.

But it doesn’t make them good yet. Youth takes time, and these guys are going to have to learn how to win. They’re also going to have to learn how to play defense. Young was predictable awful on that end last year, and Collins is almost as bad and at a more important defensive position.

An over-34.5 bet means contending for the playoffs in the East, and while the Hawks certainly have no reason to tank, there are at least nine East teams clearly better than them. This is a growing season, and the kids are going to lose as they grow. But they’ll be fun to watch.

THE BEST BETS

3. Charlotte Hornets 23 — OVER

This is the lowest line on the board, even lower than terrible Knicks and Cavs teams, but this is a very different roster from those two. Charlotte’s young guys will mostly come off the bench, but their starting lineup features a bunch of functional veterans who would actually be useful on most NBA teams, guys like Nic Batum, Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

This team won 36 to 39 games each of the past three seasons, and this is mostly the same team but with Terry Rozier in place of Kemba Walker. Kemba was the heartbeat of this team, but is he really worth 15 wins? Jeremy Lamb is gone too, but the Hornets will find scoring elsewhere. Charlotte isn’t reallya market that can tank, and these veterans will put in a yeoman’s effort and grind out some unexpected wins. This is not the worst team in the NBA.

2. Washington Wizards 28.5 — UNDER

How many Wizards can you name besides Bradley Beal? This is a terrible roster and not a particularly young one. The John Wall contract hangs over the entire franchise, and Ish Smith and Isaiah Thomas replace his minutes. Youngsters Rui Hachimura, Troy Brown, and Thomas Bryant should get big minutes, too.

The Wizards are a steaming pile of meh. They won 32 last year and actually played well after a Beal leap. But remember they actually got 32 games from Wall last year, so they’re losing those too. This team has no shot at the playoffs and might pull the plug and tank, especially if the long rumored Bradley Beal trade finally comes to fruition. This could easily turn out to be the worst team in the NBA.

1. New York Knicks 27.5 — UNDER

Death, taxes, and the Knicks line set way too high because the public will always bet it. This line was bad when it opened, and it’s actually gone up since then. Why exactly do people think the Knicks will be good? New York wanted hoped to come away from this summer with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Zion Williamson. Instead they got R.J. Barrett and like 17 veteran power forwards. Julius Randle, Taj Gibson, and Marcus Morris are all competent players, but this Knicks core is still a bunch of unproven youngsters.

Kevin Knox and Dennis Smith Jr. were terrible but are the core of this team’s future, so they’ll get heavy minutes again. They’re joined by Barrett, a talented rookie who makes a lot of bad decisions and will need time to grow. DSJ and Barrett should have the ball in their hands a lot, and that will keep the Knicks losing. New York won 17 games last season. What exactly about this roster is 11 wins better? Enjoy your free money. ■

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