2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW

Unpacking the Hidden Details Behind the NBA’s Newest 2019 Contracts

Not every newly reported NBA deal is as it seems. What’s hiding behind the numbers?

FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE SUMMER, WELL OVER $1 BILLION WAS SHELLED OUT TO NBA FREE AGENTS AROUND THE LEAGUE. In fact, Damian Lillard, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, Kevin Durant, and Kristaps Porzingis alone hit $1 billion in new contract money. That’s $1 billion to six players. Fourteen players signed nine-figure contracts, and 38 of them signed deals worth at least $10 million a year.

But not every contract is as it appears, and many times the details get lost in the reporting. Some deals are not fully guaranteed, others contain player or team options, and many of the contracts aren’t actually worth anywhere near the amount of money reported when the news breaks.

Let’s don our NBA-onomics hats and dig into the contract numbers for 10 newly signed free agents. For each signing, we’ll announce the headline you remember from the summer, then break down the real details below…

1. Clippers land Kawhi Leonard and Paul George!!

You already know what the Clippers paid for these two (technically for just PG), but it’s worth a reminder. In addition to stud prospect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and borderline All-Star Danilo Gallinari, L.A. also gave up first-round picks in 2021*, 2022, 2023*, 2024, and 2026 (two* via Miami) along with first-round swap rights in 2023 and 2025. Every one of those picks is unprotected, so they could be lottery, top-5, or better, and they’re still all going to OKC.

Of course, landing PG also helped the Clippers secure Kawhi in free agency, and if the two win even one title, no price will have been too high. The Clippers unequivocally won by landing PG and Kawhi.

But you might not have noticed that Leonard did not sign a full max. He signed a 3-year max instead, and that third year is a player option he’ll almost certainly decline in the mega free agency summer of 2021. George’s contract has the same time frame. That means the Clippers only have PG and Kawhi for two years before both are free agents again in 2021.

That doesn’t mean either will leave. But they can. It means the Clippers just mortgaged six years of their future — almost all of it after Kawhi and PG might have left — for a two-year title window. If all goes well, the Clippers win a title, both re-sign, and a dynasty is born. But things change quickly in the NBA, and we already know both these guys will leave a good thing behind.

Clippers are all-in on a two-year window with PG and Kawhi.

2. Nets sign Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant!!

Both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant left greener pastures to sign together in Brooklyn. Both are 4-year max deals with a player option at the end. But Kyrie’s contract is far safer than Durant’s.

First, not all max deals are equal. A player’s “max” changes based on how long he’s been in the league. Irving’s 4-year max is worth $136 million, starting at just under $32m. Durant’s max is $164 million, beginning at over $38m and reaching almost $44m that option year. That’s a significant difference.

It’s especially significant since Durant just tore his Achilles four months ago. That means Brooklyn’s paying $38 million for Durant to rehab this year. That effectively wastes Kyrie’s $32 million this year too, since it puts a clear ceiling on this season. Achilles injuries typically take a full year to return, and players almost always play below-peak in their return, so now the Nets are paying $40 million in Year 2 for a well-less-than-100% Durant.

In the absolute best case scenario, Durant gets totally healthy again and gives an elite top-5 KD-level performance in Year 3 at age 33 despite the fact that we have virtually no history of players returning to pre-injury form post-Achilles. In that scenario, Durant opts out after Year 3, so the Nets paid $120 million for one elite KD year and one at 75%. That’s a ton of money for what could be one real title shot, and that doesn’t even count the $100m they’ll pay Kyrie in that stretch.

And remember — that’s the best case scenario. Realistically, the Nets might never get top-5 KD. Maybe instead they pay $38m for rehab, $40m for 65 games at 75%, and $42m for 90% KD. That’s still one of the better potential outcomes. In a more grim scenario, Durant never really gets healthy, like many others with Achilles injuries before him. That scenario is the only one in which Durant picks up his $44m option in Year 4. In that scenario, the Nets blow $38 million on rehab and then pay $40, $42, and $44 million for 50–60 games a season of 75%-or-worse KD and the team is crippled a la John Wall, a contract with the same length and a player with the same injury.

That doesn’t mean the Durant deal is bad, nor that the Nets shouldn’t have done it. Just a reminder that this is a massive gamble. The Nets may only get one peak KD year for $120 million. They better hope that’s one of Kyrie Irving’s healthy years.

The Nets are paying $120 million for what will probably turn out to be only one year of peak Kevin Durant… if they get that at all.

3. Nets sign Kyrie and KD’s buddy DeAndre Jordan

This was a puzzler at the time when the Nets already have up-and-coming center Jarrett Allen, who might already be better than Jordan. But did you realize the Nets gave DJ $40 million? That’s 4 years guaranteed, with no outs, to a 31-year-old whose athleticism looked in distinct decline the last couple years.

When you pay so much for stars like Durant and Irving, it’s imperative to have cheap talent around them. Center is the easiest spot to fill in 2019, and the Nets already had two cheap ready-made centers on the roster in Allen and rookie Nic Claxton. The two will make $3.2m combined this year. Instead the Nets will pay an aging center $10m a year for his ages 31-to-34 seasons.

The Nets are overpaying a post-prime DJ $10m a year for 4 seasons.

4. Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris re-sign with East contenders!!

Milwaukee and Philadelphia look head and shoulders above the rest of the East this year, and that wouldn’t be the case if Middleton and Harris hadn’t re-signed. But do you realize just how much money they got? Both players signed 5-year max deals. Middleton’s contract is worth $178 million with a Year 5 option he’ll most certainly be picking up. Harris’s deal is a full $180 million with no outs.

Only two players in the entire NBA are owed more money than Tobias Harris and Khris Middleton. That’s Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson. Every other player is looking up at the tower of guaranteed money these two just got. Middleton made his first All-Star team this year. Harris has never made the All-Star team and likely never will. Neither is a top-25 player, but they’ll now be paid over $30m a year and almost $40m by Year 5 of the contracts, when they’re in their post-prime early 30s.

Maybe Philly and Milwaukee had little choice but to keep these guys at any cost. Just know that “any cost” was a huge overpay that could turn into franchise-crippling contracts in a couple years. In my free agency preview, I deemed these two each worth a 4-year $75m contract. That gives each one a marginal cost of over $100 million and makes them two of the five worst contracts in the NBA.

Middleton and Harris are vastly overpaid non-stars that could become franchise-crippling contracts.

5. Indiana Pacers sign away Malcolm Brogdon!!

First, that’s actually inaccurate. The Pacers didn’t sign Brogdon in free agency; they traded for him. Indiana gave up their 2020 first rounder for Brogdon, then signed him to a 4-year $85m deal. That’s a hefty price for a guy that was something like the fifth or sixth best Buck this season.

Brogdon turns 27 this season so there’s probably no untapped potential here. He’s averaged only 62 games a season with recurring injuries and missed most of Milwaukee’s playoff run this year. Indiana also signed Jeremy Lamb and has Myles Turner on a long extension, so they have all three guys for about $50 million the next four years (three in Lamb’s case). You can decide whether that’s worth it for three good-not-great complementary pieces.

Indiana traded a first and overpaid for a complementary player with injury history.

6. Kristaps Porzingis signs long extension in Dallas!!

Porzingis signed a 5-year max worth $158 million. Dallas was always giving KP that after trading two first-round picks plus Dennis Smith Jr. for him. But many expected this contract to come with a lot of protection for Dallas. After all, Porzingis has played 72, 66, 48, and 0 games in his four NBA seasons and hadn’t played a minute of NBA ball since February 2018. Maybe Dallas would only give Porzingis a 2- or 3-year deal, or perhaps they’d include partial guarantees based on games played, like Joel Embiid’s contract. Instead Dallas got no protection at all.

In fact, it’s a player-friendly deal, with Porzingis getting a player option in Year 5. At least if Dallas was going to take the full plunge, they could have guaranteed themselves five full years of Porzingis, assuming he’s the guy they hope. Instead, Dallas got no protection and all the risk.

The Porzingis contract is very player-friendly, with no protection for Dallas if the injuries continue.

7. Dallas signs all sorts of complimentary pieces around Porzingis and Luka Doncic!!

Dallas went out and got Delon Wright for 3 years $27m and Seth Curry for 4 years $32m. They added Boban Marjanovic for 2 years $7m and re-signed Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell for 4 years, $34m and $44m respectively. They also brought back Dorian Finney-Smith for 3 years and $12m.

Dallas is renowned for building smart, modern teams that make sense. Wright is a stud defender that can play off-ball, a perfect fit with Doncic. Curry is a knockdown shooter. Kleber and DFS are low-usage 3-and-D guys. Powell is a devastating roll man. Boban is Boban. All these pieces make sense in Dallas and they’re all on pretty reasonable contracts.

But they’re also owed over $40 million combined each of the next three years. That’s over a third of the cap to a bunch of unproven bench and role players, and combined with the Porzingis contract and eventual Doncic max, it means Dallas is pretty well locked into this roster. They better hope this works.

Dallas is all-in on this version of their team the next few seasons.

8. The Warriors re-signed Draymond and Klay and added D’Angelo Russell!!

Draymond was already signed, so his deal is an extension. It means he’s under contract for 5 years and $118 million, with a player option in the final season that Steph and Klay didn’t get. Draymond will make $18.5m this year, $22m next year, and almost $28m in Year 5. Unless Draymond’s body breaks down (and at his size, it will at some point), that’s incredible value for the league’s best defender.

Russell and Thompson signed max deals, but their maxes are very different. DLo’s deal is 4 years for $117 million. Russell is only 23, and point guards often don’t hit their best until about age 25. If he keeps progressing, that could be a great value. Even if he doesn’t, it’s a deal that makes sense.

As for Klay, he got the whole boat. Thompson’s deal is 5 years for $190 million, meaning he’s owed more money than all but one NBA player. Klay’s value to the Warriors has long been debated, but I’d argue he was closer to the 5th most valuable Warrior the last few years than the 3rd. Golden State will pay $33m this year for a mostly lost season as Klay rehabs his knee, then over $43m for Thompson’s age-33 season. I estimate a marginal cost of around $90 million for the Warriors on this bloated deal, potentially making it one of the five worst contracts in the entire NBA.

The Draymond and DLo deals make sense, but Klay Thompson is now one of the league’s most overpaid players.

9. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum sign mega extensions to stay in Portland long term!!

Portland was the West 3-seed a second straight season and made a run all the way to the Western Conference Finals this summer. Following their success, the Blazers bet on team culture and continuity, offering both star guards the max extension. In McCollum’s case, that extension puts him on a 5-year $157-million deal, ranging from about $28m this year to almost $36m Year 5. That’s a lot of money for a non-All-Star. Too much money.

Lillard made All-NBA and qualified for the super max, and Portland gave it to him. After Dame’s current 2-year $61m deal, he’ll make an estimated $196 million the following 4 years. That’s around $44m at age 31 and over $54m in 2024–25, when Dame will be 34. Lillard is owed $257 million the next 6 years. That’s $100 million more than what is owed all but nine other players in the NBA.

Dame is awesome. He’s worth any amount of money he can be paid — for now. But things can change. Just ask John Wall or Derrick Rose or Grant Hill or Penny Hardaway or… You get the picture. The Blazers owe $414 million to two players. They’ll pay Dame and C.J. over $86 million combined in 2024. That’s a massive liability, no matter how good the two are.

The Blazers are on the hook for a LOT of dough for two star guards.

10. The Denver Nuggets kept their team intact!!

The Nuggets were one of few contenders to mostly stand pat this summer, outside of a savvy trade for Jerami Grant. But the Nuggets quietly made a second move that will have a much bigger impact, giving Jamal Murray a full 5-year max extension as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal. Murray’s extension will pay him $168 million over 5 years, beginning at $29m and ending around $38m.

Murray is pretty good. He plays well with Jokic and has gotten better each year. He’s a leader on the court and broke out some in the playoffs. But the Nuggets had little need to give Murray that extension right now. If he takes another step forward this year as expected and looks worth the money, they could’ve given him the exact same deal next summer. All it does now is offer a speck of good will. But if Murray has a down year or doesn’t look worth that price, Denver could’ve saved a lot of money by waiting and offering a more frugal extension.

The deal locks Jamal Murray up through his age-28 season, so it basically covers his prime and tethers him to Jokic long-term. If it works and Murray develops into a star, Denver will have no regrets. But Murray wouldn’t be the first overpaid second banana a superstar gets stuck with.

The Nuggets acted too soon and unnecessarily offered Jamal Murray more than he’s worth right now.

10 more for the road…

Those are ten big ones, but there were a lot of other interesting contracts given out. Let’s bounce around for a few quick notes on 10 others…

11. The Knicks sign a million veterans.

New York signed a slew of veteran role players, most of them power forwards. Here’s a quick rundown and the amount they reportedly signed for:

• Julius Randle — 3 years, $57 million
• Bobby Portis — 2 years, $31 million
• Taj Gibson — 2 years, $18.5 million
• Elfrid Payton — 2 years, $16 million
• Wayne Ellington — 2 years, $16 million
• Marcus Morris — 1 year, $15 million
• Reggie Bullock — 2 years, $8 million

What’s interesting is only one of those reported contracts is fully guaranteed (the Morris deal). Portis has a team option in Year 2, and every other deal is really one year shorter than listed, with a partial guarantee in the final season ($1m for Taj, Elf, Ellington, and Bullock and $4m for Randle).

On the one hand, that makes these deals not as bad for New York. They had a ton of cap room and figured they might as well spend it. On the other hand, they had all that cap room because they pre-stretched Joakim Noah when they didn’t have to. They could’ve skipped Morris and Bullock, eaten Noah’s salary this year, and been done with it. Instead they’ll still owe Noah $6.3m each of the next two years. They’ll also have to pay all those partial guarantees. Even if they trade some of the veterans, those partial guarantees act as poison pills for the receiving team. That’s just the cost of doing business when you’re the Knicks and want someone to sign with you.

12. The Magic give Nikola Vucevic $100 million.

Vooch played like a max player last year but a $12m guy before that. This is a lot of money but a fair compromise. All the better that Orlando front-loaded this deal. Vucevic will make $28m this season, but his deal drops as low as $22m the final year. Aaron Gordon’s contract is declining too. The Magic are smartly keepingmoney available later when they might need it for a big name, and that makes both players more tradable down the line.

13. Eric Gordon’s 5-year extension is non-guaranteed in Year 5.

Gordon signed a big Rockets extension and is now owed almost $90 million over the next 5 years. But that final $21m salary at age 35 has no minimum guarantee… sorta. Gordon’s final season becomes fully guaranteed if he makes an All-Star team the next four years or if the Rockets win an NBA championship. Otherwise Houston can cut that final year at no cost. A creative bit of accounting for one of the league’s most creative teams.

13. The Suns keep Kelly Oubre… for a couple years.

Restricted free agency is tough. The Suns traded for Oubre and wanted to keep him, signing him to a 2-year $30-million deal that doesn’t make a ton of sense. Oubre isn’t worth the $15.6 million he’ll make this year yet, but that’s normal for young, still developing players. That’s why you sign youngsters to long deals, hoping to gain back-end contract value. Phoenix didn’t want to commit long-term to Oubre with Booker and Ayton max deals looming, but they ended up in the soggy middle: no long-term Oubre upside and paying too much in the short-term.

14. Bulls sign Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky to big 3-year deals.

Thad’s deal was 3 years for $41 million, while Sato’s is 3 for $30 million. And both those contracts are probably worth it. But in each case, Year 3 is non-guaranteed, so it’s more like Thad signed 2-years $26m and Sato 2-years $20m. Those are great deals, and that also makes both players trade chips a year from now when they can be traded as essentially expiring deals for a team looking to clear cap space for summer 2021 free agency. Or the Bulls can clear their own space for a free agent. Either way, it’s savvy accounting.

15. The Timberwolves made some quiet, astute gambles.

For years under Tom Thibodeau, the Wolves overpaid aging veterans, lacking depth and upside. Under new management, they quickly pivoted. Rookies Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid each agreed to deals each worth around $6m over 4 years, both fully non-guaranteed. Minnesota also signed Jake Layman to a 3-year $11m deal. Those are three low-cost looks at guys with upside. If none hit, it costs very little. But if even one of them becomes a good rotation player, that’s a dirt cheap player for a few years. These are the sort of gambles Gersson Rosas saw pay off in Houston as the Rockets built something special.

16. Every Lakers role player contract was too player-friendly.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, JaVale McGee, and Rajon Rondo all signed 2-year deals with a Year 2 player option. That gives each of them all the power, so it’s very likely the Lakers will be stuck with a couple contracts they don’t want next year. Even Quinn Cook got a $1m guarantee in Year 2. These are the guys the Lakers overpaid to surround LeBron and Brow, the ones they stretched Luol Deng to afford, which will cost them $5m each of the next two seasons. Isn’t the whole point of having LeBron and being the Lakers that everyone else is supposed to bend over backwards to play with you? You’d never know it from L.A.’s books.

17. The veteran Kings deals weren’t quite as rich as they looked.

The Kings gave Cory Joseph 3 years $37m, Dewayne Dedmon 4 years $40m, and Trevor Ariza 2 years $25m. But all three deals have a tiny guarantee in the final season, so it’s more like 2 for $25m for CoJo, 2 for $27m for Dedmon, and $12m once for Ariza. Not bad! Nemanja Bjelica’s deal from last summer is similar. The Kings can get out of the final year of all four deals for just $5.2m combined. No such luck on the bloated Harrison Barnes deal, though at least that one declines over four years.

18. Bojan Bogdanovic is the only long-term Jazz player.

The Jazz gave up a lot of draft capital for Mike Conley, then opened their wallets and signed Bojan for $73 million over 4 years, a shocking contract for a 30-year-old journeyman with one good season. Conley, Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Joe Ingles all come off the books in two seasons. In fact, Bogdanovic is the only Jazz player signed past summer 2021.

19. The Grizzlies overcommitted to veterans at the two positions they were already heavily invested in.

Memphis re-signed Jonas Valanciunas to a 3-year $45m deal. They also grabbed Tyus Jones in free agency, giving him $26m for 3 years. Both are overpays, but not egregiously so. The problem is they’re now paying $25m each of the next three seasons for backups. The Grizzlies just used top-5 picks on Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. Why not spend that money elsewhere instead of on veterans blocking your two most important franchise players?

20. Kemba Walker’s max looks good… for now.

Kemba is a great player that’s improved every season, and he is fully deserving of a max contract… right now. But Walker will be 30 next year, and under-6'0" guards have a really poor aging curve into their 30s. Even one injury can be devastating. Of course, you don’t need to tell Boston that. But Walker’s at the tail of his prime and can really only lose value. He’s most valuable right now in a year Boston probably won’t contend for a title. By the time they’re ready, he might be a negative contract instead of an asset. ■

Thanks to Keith P. Smith for his awesome salary cap spreadsheets.

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