2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW

2019 NBA Western Conference Win Total Over/Under Picks

All 15 West picks from least to most confident, with the Grizzlies, Kings, and Jazz as this year’s best bets…

THE NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GOT A COMPLETE MAKEOVER THIS SUMMER, AND IT’S MORE WIDE OPEN THAN EVER. The East is still terrible outside of a couple teams, but a full 14 West teams have their sights set on the playoffs this season, and as many as 6 or 7 of them could have a legitimate shot at a title.

The NBA world revolves around California this year, with the Lakers and Clippers as co-favorites, while the Warriors ain’t going away that easily. The Nuggets and Jazz are trendy sleepers, and the Rockets might have the best regular season record of them all. Add in a bunch of frisky sleepers and fun young teams, and the West is as stacked as ever.

So which West teams will go over their projected win total, and who will go under? Let’s run through all 15 Western Conference teams and make some picks, in order from least to most confident. Don’t forget to check out the Eastern Conference picks too, if you haven’t yet.

THE STAY AWAYS

15. Golden State Warriors 48.5 — UNDER

Honestly, who knows? All logical signs point to the end of the dynasty. Kevin Durant is gone, Andre Iguodala is gone, and Klay Thompson should miss 50+ games rehabbing his knee. We know the Warriors won without KD, but Klay and Iggy have always been part of their winning core.

The Warriors have D’Angelo Russell now but precious little otherwise until Klay returns. The center rotation looks weak, and they basically don’t have a small forward starter. Stephen Curry will have to carry way too much of the offensive load, and Draymond Green will have to do an awful lot on defense.

And you know what? Maybe they will. No one would put it past Steph or Dray, and the Warriors have shown they’re at their best when we count them out. If the Ws get Klay back and sneak into the playoffs, I’m open to anything. But until then, history is the only reason to believe in this team in the year ahead.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder 32 — OVER

It’s an entirely new OKC team, and not a terrible one, in truth. Chris Paul is still really good, and he’ll get plenty of help from Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Steven Adams. Those four are good enough to be a genuine playoff contender in the West. But is that what the Thunder want? Oklahoma City blew things up to save its future, but the present is murky.

If the Thunder try this season and stay relatively healthy, they could clear this win total by double digits. But they could also trade CP3 and Gallo, go young, and quickly fall to the bottom of the West. We just don’t know their intentions, which makes this one of the biggest question marks on the board. I don’t see a CP3 fit and suspect he’ll be on the team all year now. Chris Paul teams average 55 wins a season since he joined the Clippers. This team could be interesting.

13. San Antonio Spurs 45.5 — OVER

Death, taxes, and the San Antonio Spurs. Two years ago they lost Kawhi Leonard most of the season and won 47 games anyway. Last year they lost him for real, then lost Dejounte Murray for the year and improved by a game. This year, the team returns just about everyone. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are older, but Dejounte should be healthy and ready to break out, and he and Derrick White make up one of the more underrated young guard duos in the league. San Antonio simply will not die.

Popovich has this regular season thing figured out. He always gets the team to play defense (Murray’s return will do wonders), and he always gets the spare parts to play enough offense to make everything work. The under here would be the worst Spurs season since 1997, pre-Tim Duncan. Go with history.

12. Los Angeles Clippers 54 — OVER

The Clippers became the class of the West literally overnight, trading away Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a cadre of picks to acquire Paul George and the opportunity to sign Kawhi Leonard. Last year’s Clippers won 48 games, then essentially swapped swapped Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari for PG and Kawhi. Seems good.

And as great as Leonard was in his playoff run, it’s easy to forget how great Paul George was himself last year. He scored 28ppg and finished third in both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year races, despite dealing with a shoulder injury much of the year. That shoulder is still bothering him and could cause him to miss the start of the season, and the line has dropped from 55 to 54 to reflect some concerns.

This team cares far more about May and June than regular season wins. They know if they get to the postseason healthy, it won’t matter what seed they are. That’s the concern about the over. But Kawhi and PG can take turns carrying the team, and this team has more depth than you think and enough defense to win plenty of games on its own. The Clips also have the right chips to make one more big in-season trade. They’re coming, and they’re gonna be good.

THE WEST IS REALLY HARD

11. Denver Nuggets 52 — OVER

While the rest of the NBA blew up this summer, the Nuggets took a look around, remembered they led the West most of last season, and mostly stood pat. Denver returns basically its entire rotation, betting on continuity amidst so much change, and that should be good for a few extra early wins.

The Nuggets won 54 games last year and should really be better. Nikola Jokic looks primed for an MVP season and is still getting better at age 24. Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Monte Morris, and Malik Beasley are all 25 and under too, and so are new Nugget Jerami Grant and second-chance rookie Michael Porter Jr. This team might be deeper than any NBA team and there’s reason to believe every player should be better this season, other than Paul Millsap.

Grant is another reason to be optimistic about Denver. He’s the perfect fit as a 3-and-D forward next to Jokic. The Nuggets should get more from the wing too, where Harris and Will Barton struggled through injuries all last season while Porter missed the year altogether. We’ll see if Denver is ready for a playoff leap, but they should be a very good regular season team.

10. Dallas Mavericks 40.5 — UNDER

The West is so stacked this 40.5-line expects Dallas to finish at/above .500 and yet still five games out of the Western playoff race, with the Spurs and Blazers a full five games ahead of them for the 7- and 8-seeds. Still, an over here is a bet on Dallas to be in playoff contention into the spring, and it might be a year too soon for a team that won 33, 24, and 33 games the last three years.

This year’s team should certainly be better. It’s Year 2 for Luka Doncic plus the Mavericks debut of Kristaps Porzingis, while Delon Wright and Seth Curry have been added as specific fits around those two. Rick Carlisle always gets the most out of this roster and it’s no fun betting against Luka, but the West is loaded and .500 just seems too big an ask this year.

9. New Orleans Pelicans 40.5 — UNDER

It’s incredible to win 39 games, lose Anthony Davis, and see your projected win total go up. That’s a testament to an incredible Pelicans offseason under David Griffin, and New Orleans now has one of the league’s brightest futures, featuring Zion Williamson and a slew of young talents and future picks. But rookies don’t win much, not even superstar rookies.

New Orleans has a deep fun roster, featuring a genuine star in Jrue Holiday, quality veterans like Derrick Favors and J.J. Redick, and too many young players to name. The Pelicans are will be patient as this team learns, but learning means losing. Even with Davis playing at an MVP level for 48 games last year, New Orleans won only 39 games. The Pelicans might be the #1 League Pass team with their pace and youth, but they’re not a .500 team.

8. Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 — OVER

The Blazers are a bet on team culture and continuity… sorta. Dame and C.J. lead the way, but the rest of the lineup will look very different. Jusuf Nurkic was the team’s second best player a year ago, but he broke his leg and will miss most of the season. He’ll be replaced by Hassan Whiteside, while Kent Bazemore and Zach Collins look like they’ll be the new starting forwards. It’s harder than you think to replace Nurkic, Mo Harkless, and Al-Farouq Aminu.

Still, Dame and C.J. led this team to 53 and 49 wins the last two seasons, both times finishing as the West 3-seed. If Portland can hang in there early on, they should get a boost from a midseason return by Nurkic, and that may happen in more ways than one. If the team is confident Nurk is ready, they may also trade Whiteside with a young player or pick for someone like Kevin Love or Danilo Gallinari and make a strong playoff push. The under here is a bet on Portland missing the playoffs or coming close. They’re making the playoffs.

THE VERY SOLID PLAYS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves 35.5 — OVER

Last season was a nightmare for the Wolves. The Jimmy Butler saga killed team chemistry and started them off in a hole they never recovered from. Minnesota also fired Tom Thibodeau and dealt with major injuries all year to key players like Jeff Teague and Robert Covington. And even despite all that, the Timberwolves still won 36 games.

This year’s team should be better. Healthy seasons from Teague and RoCo will make a big difference, and the team added a ton of young talent and has finally embraced modern analytics so that will go a long ways. The new regime is looking to establish a winning culture, and Karl-Anthony Towns may be ready to take the next step with a team that is fully his own. Minnesota may not be ready to contend for the playoffs, but they’re being overlooked.

6. Los Angeles Lakers 51.5 — OVER

Lakers exceptionalism is back! The Lakers finally added Anthony Davis this summer after trading away all of their youngsters and picks for him, and LeBron and Brow make this team tantalizingly good. The rest of the roster is still a question mark. Danny Green is excellent, but there will be plenty of questions about the team’s veterans, shooting, and defense. But remember, LeBron teams never finish the season with the same roster they start with. There will be trade additions and buyouts, and this team will get better.

It’s already pretty good. The Lakers won 37 games last year, so is Davis worth an extra 15 wins? He honestly might be, but he’s not doing it on his own. LeBron played only 55 games last season but should be healthy and ready to go after his first summer off since high school. And lest you worry about the loss of guys like Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart, it’s worth remembering how much of last season they missed injured anyway, let alone whether they were even good yet. LeBron alone was worth at least 50 wins every season since 2008 until last year’s injury.

5. Phoenix Suns 29.5 — UNDER

The Suns under has long been one of the easiest bets on the board. This team won just 19, 21, 24, and 23 games the last four seasons. That’s only 87 wins in four years, or one win fewer than the Warriors had the 2015–16 season alone. Last year’s Suns were so bad that they finished 14 games back… from the 14-seed in the West! That’s not just bad. It’s awful.

Are these Suns really 11 wins better than last year’s team? Ricky Rubio will help, but 30 wins still depends on big steps forward from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, and at this point, I’ll have to see it to believe it. The Suns have a long-term plan, but 30 wins in the loaded West is a big ask for a team that’s been this bad this long. The offense should be better with a true point guard, but the defense will still be bad. Why is this roster winning 30 games in the West? Who are they beating?

4. Houston Rockets 53.5 — OVER

The Rockets and their analytics almost always hit the over, though they disappointed in the regular season last year with only 53 wins after a terrible start and fighting through injuries and a weak rotation all year. They return mostly the same roster but replace Chris Paul with Russell Westbrook. And that’s basically the entire conversation with this team.

In the regular season, Westbrook is a huge upgrade over CP3 if for no other reason than he’ll probably play almost 50% more minutes. Harden had to do way too much last year. Now one of those two will be on the court at all times, and imagine what one of them will do to an average bench unit for 16 regular season minutes each game. As thin as Houston’s bench is, all those extra Westbrook minutes are huge, and they make Harden’s minutes more rested and valuable too.

Mike D’Antoni has shown he can adapt his offense around the talent given, so expect this Russ and Harden marriage to work, at least in the regular season. It may or may not work in the playoffs, but it doesn’t have to for you to cash in on the over from two stars too good to not win 54 games together.

THE BEST BETS

3. Utah Jazz 54 — UNDER

Before the NBA exploded in July, the Jazz were every NBA nerd’s favorite sleeper. Utah won 50, 48, and 51 games the last three years. They finally made their big moves this summer, trading for Mike Conley and then doubling down in free agency to pay big for Bojan Bogdanovic. Those two plus another step from Donovan Mitchell could mean a much improved offense.

But what about the defense? As much as Conley and Bogdanovic improve the offense, they’re an even bigger drop defensively from Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors. Rudy Gobert is the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, but he can’t play D by himself. He’s also played only two full healthy seasons before last year, and each time, he played only around 60 games the following season.

Utah’s offense should be better, but at what cost? Are we sure this team is five games better than last year? If Gobert misses some time this year, as he often does, Utah could be closer to missing the playoffs than leading the West.

2. Sacramento Kings 38.5 — UNDER

The Kings shocked everyone last year, smashing their 26-win expectation and staying in the playoff race all season with 39 wins and breakout seasons from De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. Add in new veterans Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, and Cory Joseph along with a full season from Harrison Barnes, and many are picking the Kings to make the leap to the playoffs.

But growth isn’t linear, and the Kings are about to learn that with winning comes expectations. Teams will be ready for Sacramento this year, and the pace that surprised opponents early won’t be a shock this time. Last season’s 39 wins were already the most for Sacramento since 2006, and there are no free wins in the West. Once teams took the Kings seriously and prepared for them, they fell off quickly and ended up nine games out of the playoff race. It may be a step back this season before a further step forward.

1. Memphis Grizzlies 27 — UNDER

The future is finally here for Memphis. Out with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley; in with a new, exciting young core built around rookies Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke and sophomore Jaren Jackson Jr. The future looks bright for Memphis, but the present could be pretty bumpy.

It will be a steep drop from Conley to a rookie 20-year-old point guard. Morant will get his numbers, but most young handlers face a steep learning curve and make a ton of mistakes. Memphis is the worst team in a loaded West where every literally other team is trying to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies owe their pick to Boston unless it’s in the top-6, so they have every reason to lose late. At least 3–4 teams have finished with fewer than 27 wins every season this decade. Expect the Grizz to join them this season. ■

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