2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW

Which NBA Centers Will Suddenly Start Hitting Threes This Season?

7-foot Brook Lopez starting hitting three pointers virtually overnight. Which NBA big men will be next?

NBA CENTERS WERE NEVER SUPPOSED TO BE ABLE TO SHOOT THE BALL. Centers are giants, usually hovering around seven-feet tall. They’re the behemoths that traditionally dominate the paint, dunking on opponents and swatting anyone that dared to enter their territory. It used to be rare that an NBA big man could hit an outside shot too, so rare that we started calling anyone who could a “unicorn.”

But in today’s NBA, there are unicorn big men on almost every team. Some of them are stretch fours and fives, guys who get a paycheck every two weeks because they’re tall and can shoot the rock. But more and more, NBA big men are expanding their game beyond the arc, even guys who spent the first 25 years of their lives never even attempting threes.

Look no further than Brook Lopez, who made exactly three threes the first nine years of his career before hitting an absurd 187 of them last year for the Bucks. Lopez averaged shooting 19.7 feet from the rim for the season. And he’s just one of many big men who had added a three-point shot almost overnight, which can only leave you wondering who will do it next.

We’re not talking about the obvious big men shooters like Karl-Anthony Towns or Kristaps Porzingis, nor Joel Embiid or Marc Gasol or Al Horford. If you already made at least one three per game previously, you’re out. No, we’re looking for guys like Alex Len, Justin Dedmon, Nikola Vucevic, and BroLo, guys who don’t shoot threes for the better part of their basketball lives and then suddenly start hitting them overnight.

So what NBA big men could follow in their footsteps this season? These 10 fit the bill…

Robin Lopez, Milwaukee

Why not start with the most obvious choice?

For the first eight seasons of Brook Lopez’s career, he made 3 threes. That’s three total in 487 games. Then the Nets told him to shoot threes, and suddenly BroLo hit 433 threes the next three seasons at 35%, including 187 last season alone bombing for the Bucks.

So what were the warning signs for BroLo? He’s always been an excellent free-throw shooter, at 79% for his career. He also always showed range away from the rim, taking almost a third of his shots from the mid-range and hitting 41% of them, a strong number. Look at BroLo’s shot chart in 2016. He made only two threes but hit about 65 more shots that were only a couple feet away.

Enter his twin brother and new teammate, Robin. Robin has made 76% of his career free throws. He’s only taken 21% of his shots from mid-range but hit 40% of them. Like his brother, RoLo is a confident, competent shooter, especially from the top of the arc. So why not follow in Brook’s footsteps and start shooting threes?

RoLo has 11 career makes in 11 NBA season… but he’s already 2-for-8 this preseason. Both of those numbers are significant. RoLo is taking threes now, and he’s making a few of them. Could Milwaukee suddenly have twin 7-foot shot-blocking bombers on their hands?

Deandre Ayton, Phoenix

Ayton scored 1159 points last season and shot 75% from the line. Guess how many three pointers he made as a rookie. Did you guess zero? Because that is somehow the answer, in a crime against coaching and development.

Ayton attempted only four threes, all of them at the buzzer, and Phoenix coaches reportedly wanted him to avoid threes and focus on building his game from the inside out. What year is this? Ayton is never going to be a great defending big man, so his path to #1 pick value is by becoming unstoppable on offense, and in 2019, that absolutely must include shooting.

And the thing is, Ayton can shoot! Look at this shot chart. Ayton is comfortable shooting the ball, and 75% at the line is outstanding for a big man. Let the man take two steps out and hit the jumper, for the love of all unicorns!

Alas, Ayton has yet to attempt a three-point shot this preseason. Sigh.

LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio

Aldridge has to be the most obvious can-he-shoot big man in the entire NBA.

Dude has literally made a living hitting shots from a couple feet inside the arc. LMA is a seven-time All-Star and five-time All-NBA player with a solid chance at the Hall of Fame. How has no one ever done him the favor of telling him to take a step back and add the three to his game? Is there any better way to extend his career?

Aldridge shot a career best 44% last year between 16 feet and the arc. He’s literally shooting better as he ages. All it would take is one summer shooting threes and he’d start hitting 2.5 a game. Especially in San Antonio, of all places, king of the shot doctors.

Why do the Spurs hate three pointers so much? Don’t tell me this dude can’t shoot:

Marvin Bagley, Sacramento

Bagley developed quickly as a rookie. He averaged 13/7 before the All-Star break but leapt to 18.5/9 after the break, using his athleticism to amp up the Sacramento attack. Bagley has immense raw talent and is at his best anywhere around the rim where he has always had terrific touch.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that Bagley has already started shooting threes too. It happened so subtly, you might not have even noticed. Through Bagley’s first 50 games, he hit 16 threes, only once making more than one in a game. But he made 13 in his final 12 games, including 2+ makes in five games down the stretch. He’s made 3-of-9 this preseason, so he clearly plans to keep shooting.

Bagley was billed as a modern Amare’ Stoudemire coming out of the draft. How good would Amare’ have been if he could hit threes too?

Domantas Sabonis, Indiana

Expecting a different Pacers big man? Sabonis has made only 22 threes in two years with Indiana, though he’s shot 41% behind the arc doing it. You’ve seen Sabonis play. He’s comfortable handling the ball and spends plenty of his time away from the basket, and he hit 39% of his long twos last season and 72% of his free throws. He’s clearly comfortable shooting.

And his future in Indiana might depend on it. The Pacers have already had some trouble playing Sabonis together with Myles Turner, and now they spent another draft pick on European center Goga Bitadze. Sabonis is in the last year of his rookie deal. Indiana has Turner on a cheap extension and Bitadze on a rookie deal. Which one of the three big men is most expendable? The easiest way for Sabonis to show is value for Indiana is by adding a stretch component to his game.

Arvydas Sabonis hit 40 threes a year his first few seasons in the NBA, so like father, like son? Domantas made 51 threes his rookie season in Oklahoma City, so the shot is there, and he’s taken eight already this preseason. It’s coming.

Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota

It’s hard to remember now, but a few years ago, Dieng was a pretty similar player to Sabonis, at least in playing style. Never a great rim protector, Dieng is a true four and made his living further from the basket with a nifty jumper and a lethal mid-range game. Dieng shoots 50% for his career on shots between 10 and 16 feet, and he’s made just under 45% of his long twos the last four seasons. Add in 79% from the line, and Dieng has all the makings of an obvious three-point shooter.

So why has Dieng never been pushed to shoot behind the arc? Blame Tom Thibodeau and a prehistoric Minnesota offense that failed to learn 3>2… until now. Gersson Rosas and the new Wolves world order has the team jacking threes like never before. Dieng has barely even managed to find playing time the last few years, turning into one of the worst, deadest contracts in the league. Could Minnesota resurrect his value by turning him into a stretch four?

Larry Nance, Cleveland

You’re starting to see the pattern by now, so let’s not belabor the point. Nance is a career 70% free throw shooter and has made 40% of his long twos. He’s also on a slightly bloated contract that needs added value to redeem it… added value like a three.

In the first 225 games of Nance’s NBA career, he made 26 threes. Then he hit 20 in Cleveland’s final 24 games, and he’s already taken 11 threes this preseason. Add in a semi-reliable three and Nance might just transform from bad contract into useful trade chip.

Pau Gasol, Portland

Fun fact: Pau Gasol leads the NBA in three-point percentage over the past three seasons (minimum 100 attempts). He’s 105-of-237 in that stretch, an incredible 44.3%, atop a leaderboard loaded with the league’s best shooters. Real shame the Spurs have yet to learn that 3>2, or the Bulls before them, for that matter.

Fun fact #2: Pau isn’t retired and could actually be a difference maker for a Blazers team in need of big man production with Jusuf Nurkic out til February. Maybe they’ll let him shoot.

Cody Zeller, Charlotte

If a t(h)ree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it still make a sound?

Contrary to popular belief, Charlotte actually has some quality basketball players. They just don’t have any great ones. Cody Zeller is one of the quality ones, at least when he’s healthy enough to stay on the court.

Zeller is a 74% free throw shooter but has been mercurial at best from the mid-range for his career, and he’s made only 10-of-38 threes in his six-year career. But preseason basketball can actually tell us something, and Zeller has already attempted 11 preseason threes. That’s enough volume to tell us he’s trying, even if he only made two of them.

Grant Williams, Boston

It’s probably cheating to include a rookie on this list, but it’s my list, so sue me.

Grant Williams was a two-time SEC Player of the Year and consensus All-American at Tennessee. He has an incredible basketball IQ, is a pitbull on defense, and makes approximately 93% of his jumpers from the elbow. And yet, no one wanted to draft him because he’s too small and can’t shoot threes, with only 30 makes in three college seasons.

Oops. Williams has always had outstanding touch around the rim and made 76% of his college free throws, and sure enough, he immediately started taking and making threes at NBA Summer League. This preseason he’s 5-of-12 behind the arc, a robust 42%. Pretty good for a guy who can’t shoot.

Honorable mention to fellow rookie Bruno Fernando, whose Maryland coaches never allowed him to shoot when he clearly has a great touch. Atlanta turns every center they touch into a shooter, so it’s only a matter of time.

BONUS — 10 Big Guys Already Making Threes that We’re about to Start Noticing

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee

Giannis isn’t really a traditional big man but plays like one much of the time, so we’ll include him here if only because it’s worth noting that the MVP suddenly started hitting threes last season without anyone even noticing. From February 6 forward, Giannis made 34.5% of his 3.7 threes a game and continued that into the playoffs at 32.7% on 3.7 attempts. The increased willingness to shoot and competence to make them are both significant. For reference, LeBron is 34.3% on 4.2 attempts a game for his career. If opponents have to start respecting Greek Freak’s shot too, it’s all over.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis

Jackson quietly had an excellent rookie campaign but played only 58 games before being shut down injured. JJJ made 51 threes at 36% last year and hit 7-of-18 this preseason, and he’s already trending toward becoming an elite defender. How long til The Ringer adds him to their unicorns list?

Maxi Kleber, Dallas

Think of Maxi Kleber as a German version of Jaren Jackson Jr., a 3-and-D big man that already hit 77 threes last year at 35%. Kleber played only 21 minutes a game in his second NBA season but was one of the better Mavericks with the team’s best on/off differential. As folks start to pay more attention to Dallas this season with Doncic and Porzingis, they’re sure to notice Kleber, too. By the way, don’t be shocked if Boban shoots a few threes too.

Mo Bamba, Orlando

We only got 766 minutes of Bamba his rookie season, but he looks healthy now and should get more playing time. Last summer we watched clips of the 7-foot-1 Bamba draining threes, and he did hit 21 in season. This preseason he’s already 6-of-13. He’s definitely going to shoot.

Zach Collins, Portland

Collins has already been shooting some for the Blazers. He made 35 threes as a rookie and 40 more last season, though he’s hit only 32% of his attempts so the shot is still rounding into form. Collins is a 72% free throw shooter, but he has really nice touch around the rim, so the shot should continue to develop it. This year, Collins should start at the four and could end up being Portland’s third go-to scorer on offense until Nurkic returns. If he starts making threes more regularly, he could even end up a Most Improved Player candidate.

Georges Niang, Utah

Niang has always been able to shoot and do a little bit of everything else ever since his Iowa State days. He just hasn’t had the chance to show it much in the NBA. Niang has played only 641 minutes in three NBA seasons, but that could change this year on a thin Utah bench that may need his scoring. Niang jacked 24 threes in five preseason games, so he knows his role.

Moe Wagner, Washington

Could the Wizards turn Lakers cast-off centers into competent stretch bigs in back-to-back seasons? They did it with Thomas Bryant a year ago, and it’s already looking promising for last year’s #25 pick Wagner, who the Lakers discarded for cap room they didn’t need. Wagner is actually leading the Wizards in scoring this season at 16.2ppg, and that includes 6-of-17 from behind the arc. Good thing the Lakers don’t need a stretch big.

Chris Boucher, Toronto

Everyone has their eye on OG Anunoby, Terence Davis, and Matt Thomas as the next breakout Raptors star. My money is on Chris Boucher, who is already awesome. Boucher was the G-League MVP last year, averaging 27 points and 11 rebounds a game with an ungodly 4.1 blocks a game on top of it. If that’s not enough to grab your interest, he also hit 62 threes in 28 games. Boucher has yet to log much real NBA time but looks like he could make the Opening Day roster. He could be the next Toronto international big man to explode.

Dragan Bender, Milwaukee

Yeah, that guy. Bender was the #4 pick just three summers ago but has already been left for dead, and for good reason, if you’ve ever watched him on a basketball court. Maybe he’ll find a second life in the Bucks BroLo role, dropping to protect the rim on D and gunning like a shooting guard on offense. Bender hit 7-of-13 threes this preseason. He will have to beat out the Brothers Lopez to see the court, but keep an eye on him in garbage time.

Bruno Caboclo, Memphis

Yeah, that guy, Part II. Caboclo is now two years away from being two years away from totally forgotten, but while no one was looking, Caboclo reinvented himself as a center and was shockingly competent in 800 Grizzlies minutes last year. That included 48 threes in 34 games at an impressive 37% clip. Just one more name to watch in Memphis. Take that for data. ■

All stats and shot charts from Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.

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