Lessons to Be Learnt for Indian Politics in 2021 From Bihar 2020 Elections
Bihar Elections 2020 elections saw a tight fight between NDA and MGB. RJD became the largest party but BJP-JDU alliance has captured the power in the state. Nitish Kumar is the CM.
Bihar is the third largest state in India in terms of population and electorally in the number of Lok Sabha constituencies. Another important fact about the state is that it is the only state in the Hindi heartland area that has never seen BJP becoming the Single largest party or has led an alliance government till 2020. It was ruled by NDA alliance with JDU being the major party and BJP being the minor party. This was also the first major state election to be held after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Election tally of 2020
NDA has been declared the winner with seats and these being the largest alliance. In NDA, BJP is the largest party and JDU is the second-largest party. It also has a few small partners like HAM. Nitish Kumar of JDU as announced is the CM. He will be the CM for fourth consecutive time, which is indeed a credible achievement in Indian Politics.
MGB has come in a close second with seats and RJD being the largest party not only in the alliance but also in the entire election.
Comparison with 2015
Implications of this election
BJP is the formidable force in Hindi Heartland
Once held by Congress, BJP is no more a junior party but a senior leader, even much bigger than the Congress. Other than Punjab, entire North India is under BJP command. It is so big that even traditionally strong parties- SP, BSP etc. find it really hard to even give a formidable fight in the elections. Until this election, Bihar was the only state that BJP didn’t have a good performance till now. Just as we expected BJP is now the number one party in the state rivalling all the traditional parties like JDU, RJD, LJP etc. Being the largest party in the ruling alliance, BJP will have more power than CM Nitish Kumar of JDU technically that even his closest friend Sushil Kumar Modi is not even the Deputy CM. BJP will continue to steer the North Indian Political landscape.
BJP is in no need of allies
BJP from no own will try to control and sideline Nitish Kumar and JDU to gulp up their success and vote bank. This will automatically make BJP invincible. LJP which stood against JDU in the elections but not against the BJP has helped BJP a lot more than the MGB.
This is a clear example of Mr Modi’s and Amit Shah’s success in building the BJP not only the highest level but also improving the onground base and cadre. BJP has almost completed entire North India and next aim will be on West Bengal which will go to polls mid-next year. As usual BJP’s brahmastra in WB will be religious polarisation as there is a large Muslim population. It will rake up topics like CAA, NRC, termites etc to create a Hindu-Muslim voter divide and the situation will favour BJP.
Nitish Kumar is no more the King
Until a few months back, he was the strongest leader and the person with the highest rating and ofcourse decline of Lalu Prasad Yadav was evident. From 2019 Lok Sabha, elections Narendra Modi is the star of BJP and you might not even be shocked when I say that BJP doesn’t fight elections with a CM face except in Haryana and Maharastra. So today, Nitish Kumar may be popular with the old generation but the youth of Bihar wants a new face. Up to an extent, youth have faith in BJP but are able to differentiate between state and national elections.
He and his party are under extreme pressure from BJP and he is just a puppet CM.
Migrant population
When we talk about Bihar, we talk about the migrant population and how they have been working across India. Due to pandemic and lockdown that followed, it is pretty clear that they are back in the state and have made their reverberations feel in the polling. When they are asked about their miseries and so-called migrant crisis, they tend to blame Nitish Kumar, who is the CM than PM Modi. We will discuss more the topic in the Youth section.
The Youthquake
Another important aspect of the state is its Youth Population. It is one of the youngest states in India and thus determines what the youth wants. Coming to this years’ election, much of the youth population were they’re in the state itself to vote. Majority of them were migrants in other states, especially in the developed west and south. It was unfortunate for them to get back home due to sudden lockdown. At the same time a large amount of population where still back at home in Bihar. Their biggest demand for this election was “Employment and Jobs”. This was evident when we saw the fall of popularity of incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and the rise of new Gen leaders like Chirag Paswan and Tejasjwi Yadav. Every time JDU tried to go back to the Lalu’s Jungle Raj, the new generation will reply- “Don’t drag is back 15 years, we need to move forward, we need jobs, we need a bright future.” Also it is pretty clear that they are very well able to differentiate between the National and State elections. They had voted overwhelmingly for Modi in 2019 but had looked for alternatives this time. It was Chirag Paswan, Tejaswi Yadav, Pappu Yadav, Pushpam Priya Chaudary etc.
Chirag Paswan and LJP
A young and inspiring leader who lost his father who was a political stalwart in Bihar(passed away a few days before the elections) was claimed to be the kingmaker of this election. Analysts claimed that LJP, the party which will decide who will rule Bihar. Despite being part of NDA, Chirag Paswan severed its ties with the JDU in the state and decided to fight independently. But the twist here is that LJP contested against only JDU but not BJP. So technically speaking LJP was cutting votes of JDU wherever it contested. Conspiracy theories began to run, that it was BJP who still has a secret alliance with the LJP and it wants to cut JDU’s votes, bring down Nitish Kumar so that BJP can rule by itself. It was also pretty clear that LJP aimed straight at Nitish Kumar at the same time kept on endorsing Modi. Some people also claim that LJP will tie-up with BJP for a post-poll alliance and capture power in Patna without JDU.
He and his party were up to an extent successful in portraying the face of Young Bihar as well be an alternative to Nitish’s JDU. By far, it looks like people still aren’t convinced of him and thus LJP could win only two seats. Also, the death of his father Ram Vilas Paswan was a jolt to the party and it didn’t even get sympathy votes.
In the majority of the seats it contested, it looks like it hampered JDU’s prospectus and was successful in cutting votes and reducing its tally. LJP turned out to be just a suicide party this time, how it took down JDU with it. In future, it looks like Chirag has a bright future and his youthful image can grab a lot of people to it and even ally with BJP and be part of the ruling government.
Congress party
Irrespective of the opinion you have about the party, we can understand and conclude that this is the worst performance by the party in the state and the biggest loser of this election. Along with killing itself, it also brought down the tally of the MGB, thus creating the loss for the alliance. How? It had demanded 70 seats to contest and had won only 19. Thus, it lost in potential 51 other seats which could have been won by the other parties like the RJD or Left front. That is the major complaint all the allied parties had about Congress. It asks for a big share but can’t even give a good battle or show some basic seriousness. We can see this state of congress party in almost all the elections in all the states. The party now has lost its leadership, ideology, vision, aspirations, energy, ability, and the need to fight.
Left front
We know that the left front is dying across India. Except for (my) state of Kerala, Left front is almost dead. Even in Bengal and Tripura, BJP has successfully uprooted it. The left front comprises of CPI-M, CPI, CPI-ML, RSP etc. In Bihar elections, we can see that Left together has gained around 19 seats. That’s a big boost and revival for the party which has a lot of national importance. It has performed well in rural and tribal areas. Its performance has been much better than that of the Congress party. This is also where the cadre of Left parties has helped to gain support and ride for victory. The party hopes that this is a sign of revival and it will help the party in Bengal too.
Tejasjwi Yadav and RJD
As far as the MGB is concerned, Tejaswi is the most important part of the same. We can also portray him as the main opposition face. Even though he may not replicate his’s father Lalu Prasad’s political model, at the 11th hour he has gained massive momentum and even was portrayed to win. His capability to attract crowd and rally for change has attracted the youth towards it. Employment was his main weapon against the ruling party and we can see it succeed. Despite him not able to capture the power and albeit all the exit polls predicted his victory. His party RJD has secured the most number of party seats and becoming the single largest party. From this election, it’s pretty clear that he will be the main face of RJD in future and a prospective CM candidate.
Read about Left front triumph in the state of Kerala
Rise of Assaduddin Owaisi
A strong leader from Hyderabad, South India who claims to be the main leader of the Muslim Minority. His party AIMIM has contested the Bihar elections and won 5 seats, officially opening the account of AIMIM in North India. As per the experts, his party has divided the minority votes which has helped the BJP in several seats. Even opposition MGB alliance had accused him of acting like BJP’s B team and contributing to their loss.
When asked about the same, on Rajdeep’s TV show, he reacted strongly against the Congress party. He has criticised the so-called secular parties who have betrayed the minorities just by taking their votes. He claims he will contest elections in UP as well. Shekhar Gupta in his National Interest made an observation regarding Owaisi rise and his politics. He believes that Indian Muslims have never voted for a Muslim oriented party except for IUML in Kerala. The rise of Owaisi proves that he has portrayed his party as a party to rescue Indian Muslims and their trust in secular parties have diminished over the years.
It is pretty clear that just like any Indian citizen, even Owaisi has the right to contest elections. The MGB parties can never claim that he is just doing it for cutting votes. These parties are just not introspecting their loss and why they are losing votes. Even the way how Congress has been trying to be soft Hindu hasn’t worked anywhere.
Exit polls
This was a big shock for all the major polls, who had predicted a massive victory for the MGB alliance. Also, we must understand that MGB was trailing heavily at first and it was Tejaswi who revived the alliance and brought a real fight against the Ruling JDU and also was able to overshadow Chirag Paswan as the principal opposition. Exit polls have gone wrong and this will be a lesson to the pollsters and political scientists to keep in mind.
Hopefully, 2021 will be interesting for political scientists, enthusiasts and mostly to you voters. Indian politics is indeed versatile. Hope all political parties will learn some lesson from Bihar elections of 2020 and will work to achieve what they wish for. Upcoming elections in 2021 will be West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam.
Lessons Learnt
Since the lessons should stay crisp and clear, here is the summary of the article-
- BJP is the no. 1 party in Hindi Heartland and North India
- Modi is the topmost leader in India and there is no one to match his charisma
- Modi-Shah duo is invincible
- BJP no more needs the help of allies to win the elections
- Nitish’s wave is fading and is now a puppet CM
- Chirag Paswan has led to the downfall of JDU
- Youngsters know what to ask for and they have let their voice heard.
- Congress party underperformed and is now being isolated by allies.
- Left-front is growing back and is reviving
- Tejaswi Yadav is the face of RJD and primary opponent for BJP
- Owaisi is making inroads into North India and is rewriting the politics there
- Exit polls can go wrong
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Originally published at https://infodailybyjrp.blogspot.com on January 2, 2021.