What we learnt from the great Indian Election Drama!

This article pertains solely to the views of the writer and does not reflect our stand on this matter in any way. We strongly believe that every opinion counts, and hence provide a platform for expression of thoughts and ideas.

On the 23rd of May, the results of the biggest democratic exercise in the world that lasted for more than six weeks were announced. The Modi tsunami swept across the world’s largest democracy, taking the country by surprise.

This was the first party to come back to power with more than 300 seats after 1984. The National Democratic Alliance reached a record total of 350 seats decimating the divided opposition coalitions.

Election Campaigning

Election campaigning was very colourful and showed the strength of the power of money in electoral politics. Most of the speeches made by our leaders were quite ugly indeed with potshots thrown at each other-communal, casteist, as well as sexist. Let’s take a look into the slogans and catchy words used by various parties.

The most prominent slogan that dominated the entire narrative was the “Mein Bhi Chowkidar” by the ruling BJP. The counter slogan was “Chowkidar chor hai”. Both were quite powerful in attracting the masses but towards the final phase of the elections, deviated from the mainstream narrative.

While the Congress tried to counter the so-called capitalist government by introducing the Nyay scheme as well as promising jobs for the youth, Modi and BJP stressed on Nationalism, Pulwama and Strong government throughout the elections.

While Rahul Gandhi vs Smriti Irani in Amethi, Sunny Deol vs Sunil Kumar Jhakar in Gurdaspur, and Atishi vs Gautham Gambhir vs Aravind Singh Lovely in East Delhi were some of the interesting battles taking place, other interesting and nail-biting moments of the elections include Modi’s interview to actor Akshay Kumar, Rahul Gandhi’s contempt of court statement, BJP speeches on Rajiv Gandhi, Sabarimala issue, AAP-Congress Seat sharing issues and cancellation of nomination of ex BSF Tej Bahadur.

VVIP contestants

In addition to adding a couple of young faces, all parties tried to add Bollywood stars, sportspersons and strong veterans to their troop. While stars like Sunny Deol (Gurdaspur), Hema Malini (Mathura), Kiron Kher (Chandighar) who joined BJP won with ease, others like actress Jay Prada contesting Rampur and actor Suresh Gopi in Thrissur failed to make it, despite being in BJP.

In Congress along with top veterans, populist faces like Urmila Matondkar in Mumbai North, Priya Dutt in Central Mumbai, and Boxer Vijender Singh in North failed to make it too.

While the top gainers from the Congress party include Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli and Dr Shashi Tharoor in TVM, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari and Ravishankar Prasad among others from BJP tasted victory.

From other parties too, the strike rate was very high. While Akhilesh Yadav, Dayanidhi Maran and Kannimozhi of DMK, and Aasaduddin Owaisi from Hyderabad, won by a big margin, others like Kanhaiya Kumar, Prakash Raj, and Atishi lost their seats.

State wise Analysis

Pan India, it was Modi wave 2.0. Non-NDA parties couldn’t withstand its intensity anywhere but in the south. It was a complete whitewash of Congress in the Hindi heartland where it gained only one in MP, Bihar and UP each. Regional parties kept up their performance just as ever, except for Odisha and West Bengal where BJP made inroads. BJP also scored well in the Northeast and western India.

NDA allies other than SAD and AIADMK reaped massive harvest. LJP, Shiv Sena, and JDU made good news indeed. BJD, the ruling party of Odisha got elected for its fifth term in the state and kept a formidable force in Lok Sabha as well.

In the South, DMK under Stalin demolished the AIA DMK, and YSRCP under Jagan demolished TDP in both Assembly as well as Lok Sabha. UDF wave swept the state of Kerala. TRS had a huge setback in Telangana to Congress and BJP. JDS-Congress alliance was a big-time disaster giving BJP a big lead in Karnataka. Goa saw one seat going to Congress post-death of Parrikar. It also won Puducherry and Lakshadweep. RJD of Bihar and RLD of UP failed to get a seat and were the big losers of the election. AAP also failed in harvesting a seat in Delhi but also ended up losing 3 out of 4 it scored erstwhile in 2014.

Left Front was wiped out in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala but got two MPs in Tamil Nadu and one in Kerala. SP-BSP alliance never worked on the ground, just managed to gain 25 seats out of 80.

Looking into Kerala

The election here was massively fought on local issues namely Sabarimala and the Floods. BJP, although looked like it would make a big change, failed to capitalise on it. All its candidates lost by a massive margin. Never before had Kerala had got this much attention on National media.

UDF was the best gainer this time. 4 of its MLAs are now MPs. Even the Left forts of Palakkad, Attingal, Alathur, Vadakara and Kasargod fell.

One of the major reason for this victory was the immensely impressive candidate list, a historic list like never before with a mix of newcomers and old stalwarts, and that is why Kerala votes for LDF in assembly and UDF in Loksabha. The anti-incumbency of both centre and state helped UDF increase its amplitude. Rahul Gandhi’s candidature in Wayanad has also helped UDF increase its victory by many folds. Many of the issues were totally local and the issue of nationalism and national security couldn’t bring in any change in the minds of voters. A M Ariff was the sole winner of CPI M.

What went in favour of Modi?

The charisma of Narendra Modi matches none. He became a gigantic leader in the past six years, growing even above his own party. Even people who hated BJP but liked him were forced to go with him. A Vote for Modi meant a vote for India. He was successful in converting the parliamentary form of Indian elections to a presidential election, thereby giving rise to the question- Modi vs Who? and If not Modi then who?

The Modi wave which was in its lowest in the December 2018 elections was revived by the Pulwama terror attack and Balakot airstrikes. This went in favour of the ruling party. The narrative of requirement for a strong government, as well as a govt which takes quick and effective decisions along with giving free hand to Security forces, was created.

As per political analysts, BJP has two levels of functioning. The first one is the top level of political leaders and the second one A well-lubricated machinery of RSS-BJP foot soldiers, which no other organisation has. This one works much ahead of elections, carrying the word of BJP and Modi to each and every locality. This machine is backed up by Amit Shah-Modi duo, erstwhile known as Chanakya of present-day politics. Both of them single-handedly decide on poll arithmetics and give tasks to respective hierarchy on candidates to be chosen as well as totally the issues to be covered.

Then comes the twisting up of issues. The farmer’s distress, economic problems and unemployment just vanished in the air. The plain soft and hard Hindutva along with citizen amendment bill and Ram Mandir come into speeches and conversations. The opposition gradually loses the grip and the fight is now on sided with clear Victors.

The divided opposition was a boon to BJP. The anti-BJP votes were split into many constituencies favouring them (In a multi-polar First past the post elections, the first one to cross 35–40% of votes is the winner). Opposition leaders started to feel ambitious on their own terms and clashes grew. There was a lack of clarity in their speeches. They also failed to defeat BJP ideologically. Modi’s oratory skills were so impressive that through his speeches he was able to convince people that the entire opposition is the villain of this nation and they are working together to bring down the voters and Modi himself.

BJP also got its seat-sharing on time with its own allies. There was no clashes or cross jumping by.. The amount of money which was put in marketing and advertisement is immense compared to their opponents.In addition, BJP has the top IT cell in the country, with over 1200 whatsapp groups to spread information as well as twitter and FB pages to campaign.

Where did UPA and other parties slip?

• Fragmented opposition and splitting of votes along with rebels and infighting within parties.
• Left front was still a sinking ship. They literally lost much of their assets.
• No leader to project as the head of Opposition, mostly because many of them were equally ambitious. Lack of crowd attraction.
• The counter agenda was non-existent, most of it was creating an anti-Modi atmosphere which never worked. The main agenda was still confined to nationalism and strong government which was working as per the script of Mr Modi.
• No mobilisation or work on the ground. The ideologies of many parties were not compatible with each other. The ground workers couldn’t collaborate well. The voters were not convinced properly. The alliance could have been formed sometime before and tested properly beforehand.
• Dynastic politics- Gandhi, Scindia, Pawar, Patnaik, Badal, Paswan, Yadav, Gowda, etc are common surnames in Indian politics. Most of them belonged to regional parties which performed miserably. That must be why many father-son duos, as well as sons and daughters of many leaders, lost. Along with that many voters have lost the trust in them as they were turning inefficient and power hungry.
• Congress was the main party which faced massive defeat. It lost the majority of its seats while taking BJP head on. It lost 170 out of 186 seats on a direct fight. Rahul Gandhi and his leadership failed to acknowledge himself as the lone competitor to Modi. Even the states where they recently won MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan couldn’t help it reach a decent tally. People haven’t still forgiven them for UPA-2 misrule.

What can Congress do to get back?

Since 2010, the party is in a deep slumber. Along with UPA 2 misrule, the party is in total disaster. It showed some signs of recovery in 2017–19 but failed in Lok Sabha 2019. Despite having a good candidate set, they had nothing else to hold on to.

The first thing they should do is to bring in a leadership change. So-called dynasty support in the party should end. The old leaders should give space to leaders like Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia. Rahul Gandhi may or may not continue as Opposition leader but instead, he must focus on the younger generation. Now, he needs to focus on by-polls and upcoming state elections. Stitching of alliances must be done on time. Sitting MPs should be changed every 5–10 years.

Bring more attention to social media, youth-centric ideas, student-oriented problems, etc. Their campaign must be heard. The ground machinery must be significantly improved. The party also saw a big hit in secular ideals.

What is in for the government of the day?

The NDA has won with a big mandate indeed. They are yet to fulfil many of the promises they made in 2014. This time they have more challenges like rural distress, the jobs crisis, education and health. NDA also looks forward to gaining an upper hand in Rajya Sabha, by which it will be a complete Modi Rajya.

The government is also expected to keep up its good work in the economy and diplomatic relations. The first step itself was commendable where leaders of BHIMSTEC were invited for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony.

Conclusion

Whoever won this election, be it the government, MLA or MP, won with a big victory margin. That is the amount of trust the voters had in them. They need to work up to their expectations otherwise they will face the wrath of the masses in 2024. Now, we have over 43% of MPs with criminal records, which is a steep rise from 34% in 2014.

Governments will come and go, but this nation should stand tall — A B Vajpayee

You are the voter, and you are above any party. The party works for you and it’s not you, who work for the party. So stop blindly following any party. Accept suggestions and criticisms about the party you believe in and don’t turn them down as critics or anti-someone. For a healthy government, strong opposition is also necessary. A ruler without opposition is no better than a dictator, as seen in Syria, Turkey, Egypt, Russia and China. We can’t let India go undemocratic.