Geopolitics
Global Threat Index October 2022
After a two month interlude, my geopolitical prognostication is even more gloomy, my gut is twitching…
I’ve been off the grid for a couple of months as I sailed around the top of Australia and learned a bit about Australia’s role in WWII. I even got into the bomb bay of a B52.
My access to world news was limited during that time, but my geopolitical mood steadily blackened as I received occasional small doses.
5 August 2022
That was the last time I curated a list of news stories which had pushed my personal global threat index up to...
What is it now, this subjective measure of mine, this gut estimate of the probability of WWIII — or something close to it — occurring?
Here are the stories that caught my eye and made my innards twitch.
Bad news first — and this one hot off the wires this morning:
Yes, the Black Sea, international airspace and Russia admits a technical problem led to the release of a missile near a UK RAF Joint Rivet elint plane. In Ukraine we’ve seen just how reliable Russian technology is, haven’t we?
Buzzing of Russian planes is quite common over the North Sea as they probe NATO’s air defence reaction times.
No doubt NATO does the same too, but accidental missile releases are seemingly rare. And accidental releases of nuclear bombs have been known to occur, even by the US. Lest we forget:
Ukraine round-up
The key aspect here is that in my two month absence Ukraine has gamely fought on, recovered some ground and has mightily embarrassed Putin.
But that surely has pushed up the threat index as Putin becomes more desperate:
Putin is running out of precision weapons
Putin is running out of senior commanders
…at home
and away…
I’ve no affiliation to that video and was unable to validate the claims.
And he’s firing a few commanders too. These jobs have shorter shelf lives than those of English Premier League football managers. Or UK Prime Ministers.
Putin is running out of friends
As the grinding Ukraine war continues and the massacres mount, more countries are slowly starting to distance themselves from him, although not reflected in the recent UN General Assembly vote.
And running out of troops
But Putin is making new friends
To be completed…
Putin’s bridges are being burned
This was the one that I’d been predicting since way back in May 2022. Putin’s pride smashed.
We saw his reaction — a blitz on Kyiv and wider areas of Ukraine.
His missile count is going down…
And up:
Putin sources new weapons
He’s woefully short of missiles.
️Now Iran plans to Supply Russia with Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar Short-Range Ballistic Missiles — The Washington Post
These missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 and 700 km, respectively. Accuracy is unknown, although they surely cannot be worse than Russia’s own?
Oil and rubles (does he have any gold?) may be the currency, but I’m sure that Iran will have driven a hard diplomatic bargain as well.
And he desperately decrees martial law
Putin could blow a dam
Ukraine is suggesting that Russia is preparing a false flag operation to blow the Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper river near Kherson and say it was done by Ukrainian forces.
Israel unlikely to supply Iron Dome air defence system to Ukraine
This is a reflection of the reality of geopolitics.
Iron Dome is a joint US-Israel arms project and, as such, Israel has a veto on its supply to Ukraine by the US.
The reason is that supply of the system to Ukraine might damage Israeli-Russian diplomatic relations.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Israel has to work closely with Russia to preserve some semblance of political balance in the Middle East. Yes, the place where Putin has helped Assad destroy his own country of Syria.
So, no Iron Dome for Kyiv.
This is surely a mad, mad world we live in.
Far East round-up
China
Not to be forgotten — Xi Jinping has changed the law in China to allow him to run for another — third — term. That’s a page out of Putin’s playbook.
Do you remember when the Chinese Communist Party criticised the personality cult that had developed around Mao Zhedong? Well, here we go again…
Yes, the Russians did that too, when Kruschev’s secret speech demolished the cult around Stalin. But guess what Putin’s done…
And China is upping the ante in the Taiwan Strait, yet again:
Is Xi Jinping seeing a window of opportunity while the West is focused on Ukraine? Will he chance an attack on Taiwan? The pressure is notching up.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping’s eyes are open to a possible Russian intervention in Kazakhstan as President Tokayev is increasingly distancing Kazakhstan from Moscow:
President Xi Jinping’s statement last month indicated that Beijing would “resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defense of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and oppose “interference by any forces” in its internal affairs.
North Korea
Geopolitics is becoming less stable by the day and Joker Jong Un continues to stir the witches brew with missile tests:
Another nuclear test is anticipated as he is being pushed out of the headlines by other dictators.
The good news
The United Nations
There is none. I wish I could write something positive, but Al Jazeera’s analysis of the recent vote on Russia’s annexation of the Ukraine indicates minor changes in abstentions/against.
Still, one brave man stood up:
Martial law
Yes, Russian martial law (albeit limited) is good news in its way despite the fact that it’s a sign of desperation by Putin. It shows that his forces are being depleted, but more importantly, it’s saying something to the Russian people.
And they are certainly not stupid.
What’s the final score?
It’s worse, for sure.
As I said in August, I’m in no hurry to push the number up, but move it must.
In simple terms, I see the world geopolitical stage as more shaky now than I did two months ago.
The failure of the Russian military in Ukraine and the embarrassment of the Kerch Bridge knockdown is putting Putin under tremendous pressure. Will he push the red button on a small tactical nuke and open Pandora’s Box?
A bleak winter is ahead in Ukraine and maybe even the world, but I hope we will get through it.
Except one man.
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…an unwelcome future
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