Ukraine

Blowing the Crimean Bridge — No Longer a Bridge Too Far?

With imminent delivery of the Naval Strike Missile, Ukraine might have a realistic prospect of blowing this key Putin prestige link between Russia and Crimea

Yes, the Ukrainian official Telegram channel is starting to hint at destruction of the Crimean bridge. So what’s new — bridges get blown every day in war don’t they?

A special bridge

But this is a special bridge, a bridge between Russia and the Crimea, a bridge Putin built after he annexed Crimea in 2014.

It’s called the Kerch Bridge and carries road and rail traffic (actually on two parallel bridges) across the Kerch Strait which joins the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.

There had been many plans over the years for a bridge, but after Putin annexed the Crimea in 2014 it was built relatively quickly in 4 years by the company run by Arkady Rotenburg, a crony of Putin’s. Now he must surely be concerned about the loyalty of many of his cronies, having lost them their fortunes in short order.

Maybe Putin thinks the concrete is suspect so he’s been focused on the land bridge through Mariupol and finally opened that up with the fall of the Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal steelworks after a tremendous defensive stand.

A key link

The Kerch bridge is a key link for Russia and Putin’s permanent symbol of the annexation of the Crimea — it is also known as the Crimean Bridge.

At 19 km in length it’s the longest bridge in Europe and the longest Russia has built.

Until now it’s been out of range of Ukrainian forces (other than highly valuable aircraft which would have to get through stiff Russian AA missile defences) at more than 120 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-held (and logistically accessible) territory. It’s doubtful that even an air-launched variant of Ukraine’s own Neptune could get that far (if such exists).

But it’s no longer a bridge too far

With the US announcement that it will be supplying Harpoon and Naval Strike Missiles to Ukraine (probably via a European ally), the bridge is no longer too far away from the mainland for Ukraine to attack it.

Harpoons have a range of about 120 miles (declared) for the air-launched variant and could not do the job. Neither could Ukraine’s Neptune, which sunk the Moskva.

However, the Naval Strike Missile (‘NSM’) has a range (declared) of 555 km (hi-hi-low profile which I assume means air launched). That’s about 350 miles.

In 2016, it was confirmed by the Royal Norwegian Navy that NSM also can attack land targets. — Wikipedia

Land, as in bridge.

Please excuse my crude graphic, but the pink area below shows that part of free Ukraine which is within 350 nautical miles of the Kerch Bridge.

My conclusion is that there is a huge area of Ukraine from which the air-launched variant of the NSM (known as the JSM) could hit the Kerch Bridge. However, it would take time to adapt Ukrainian aircraft to become NSM launch platforms.

First the Moskva, now the Kerch Bridge?

Losing the Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, was a major embarrassment for Putin. How stupid would he look if he lost the Kerch Bridge?

Resupplying forces in the Crimea would then be dependent on shipping/ferries across the Kerch strait, and on the thin land corridor he has established along the north coast of the Sea of Azov — which was why Mariupol was so important strategically.

Air shipments would also be possible, probably with heavy lift helicopters.

A rain of missiles?

This is all just speculation on my part of course, but a bridge of length 19 km would be very hard to defend against attack by NSMs. And any ferries used to trans-ship across the Strait would also be vulnerable to NSM attack although the Kerch Strait is narrow and it’s doubtful that US satellite imagery linked to Ukrainian missile command and control could respond within in a practical timeframe.

And it’s not like a river bridge which could be replaced with pontoon bridging equipment. The Kerch could take months to repair and it would surely be hit in several locations.

If an attack on the bridge was successful then we could possible see a concerted effort by Ukraine to breach the land corridor and effectively cut off Crimea.

Other benefits

The Russian blockade has already been pushed away from the coast and the NSM threat could push them even further out and provide an effective umbrella for Ukrainian coastal operations and for critical grain exports to resume.

And the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in the Crimea could also be under threat of the NSMs.

What will Putin do?

I may be way off base here, an armchair idiot, but if Putin sees that the Kerch Bridge is at risk he may well soften his position on a ceasefire.

The Russians have said that Ukraine is blocking ceasefire talks but Ukraine is adamant that it will not cede territory in any settlement.

The Crimea and its naval base at Sevastopol is crucial to Putin. Could we see a solution where the Crimea is retained by Russia (the status quo ante February 2022) and Russia withdraws back to the internationally recognised borders elsewhere?

That would clearly be difficult for Putin as he’d have trashed his armed forces for no gain.

And now there is talk in NATO about sending warships into the Black Sea.

🤔Estonia called for NATO ships to enter the Black Sea to lift the blockade of the Ukrainian seaports.

Riho Terras, the former Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces argues that allowing NATO ships to enter the Black Sea basin would be an efficient measure. This would allow to lift the blockade of the Ukrainian seaports and protect the commercial navigation. Riho Terras also argues that Russia would not dare to attack the NATO ships. — Telegram

That would be difficult as the Bosphorus is controlled by Turkey, which has closed the passage to warships. But Turkey is a NATO member. Yes, and they’ve been fence-sitting about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And they’re unhappy about Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO. So it’s all very complicated in a geopolitical sense.

We’re three months in to Putin’s ‘special military operation’ now, and I cannot see an end to this conflict in the next month, not unless Putin is deposed.

And if you’re really interested in the NSM/JSM then you can download the Kongsberg brochure here [pdf]. Prices are not quoted, but the word on the street is $2.2m a shot (Wikipedia).

It really is something to worry Putin.

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…missile madness

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