We Watched It So You Didn’t Have To

De’Aaron Fox makes the leap as the Kings finally beat the Spurs

Fox was the best player on the court as Sacramento ended a 14-game losing streak to San Antonio

A wild NBA weekend highlighted by the Jimmy Butler trade gave way to a quieter League Pass night Monday. The Raptors and Pelicans stole the headlines, but a fascinating matchup between two above-.500 teams out West caught my attention as the Sacramento Kings hosted the San Antonio Spurs.

It was a close back-and-forth game throughout as De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield led the way for the Kings while DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge were up to their usual shenanigans for the Spurs. San Antonio’s starters struggled to keep up with Sacramento’s pace, but their bench kept it close until Fox and the Kings pulled away late for a 104–99 victory. It was Sacramento’s first win in 15 games against the Spurs. Every game is a data point, and we watched it so you didn’t have to. Here’s what we learned…

1. There was only modern forward-looking team on the court, and it wasn’t the Spurs

This is a different Kings team than the one we saw last year (or didn’t see, if you were lucky). This team runs and guns. They get the crowd fired up. Sacramento pushes and spaces in transition and scores in mini-avalanches. They’re fun. The Kings are fun again.

The Spurs are boring. And not the kind of boring like with Tim where they played fundamentals and D and churned out 58 wins like clockwork. They’re just regular boring now. They are slow and deliberate and downright uninteresting. I’m not sure I’ve ever taken so few notes about a team when doing one of these reports.

The Spurs have always been the smart team in the room. They don’t foul or turn the ball over, they defend, they’re deep, and they don’t beat themselves. That used to be good enough. But enough teams have caught up to modern NBA trends that I’m not sure it is anymore. The Spurs don’t run. They don’t shoot threes. They no longer defend well. They don’t draw fouls or force turnovers. They don’t really do anything of note, unless you find long twos particularly noteworthy. I felt like I was watching the 90s Knicks at times.

The Kings push at every opportunity. They’re second in the NBA in pace, second in transition points with almost 23 per game. The Spurs are dead last with only seven. That’s eight extra easy buckets per game for Sacramento.

The Kings have modern spacing, finally. They’re starting Buddy Hield and Nemanja Bjelica, and both get out and run at any opportunity, instinctively drifting wide in transition for three. That’s opening up lanes for De’Aaron Fox, and he’s the heart and soul of this team, pushing the pace and slicing into the defense with the newfound space.

Two teams played Monday night, and only one of them had a modern NBA identity. If the San Antonio Spurs lose that battle against the Sacramento Kings, something has gone horribly wrong.

2. De’Aaron Fox has made a leap and looked like the best player on the court

De’Aaron Fox wasn’t good last season, but that’s not particularly newsworthy. Rookie point guards aren’t supposed to be good, and he didn’t have much talent to work with. It wasn’t notable that Fox wasn’t doing well, but it was noteworthy how he wasn’t doing well. It’s like the Kings had no idea who they’d drafted. They played the slowest pace in the league and tried to turn Fox into a half court player. He didn’t have the green light to push the pace, didn’t have the opportunity to use his quickness to cut to the rim.

All of that has changed.

Fox is both the reason for and primary beneficiary of Sacramento’s increased pace, from 30th to 2nd in the league. With Fox out there, the Kings run at every opportunity — off turnovers, sure, but also off make or miss. They push the ball forward and are aggressive at even a half-chance if it presents itself. Fox is this team’s metronome, and his motor ticks faster than anyone’s.

It’s impressive how far Fox’s shot has come already. He made 3-of-4 threes and is now shooting 44% behind the arc on a decent number of season attempts. And it’s not just that he’s making them; he’s shooting confidently now. He doesn’t hesitate on an open three, and he takes the 16-foot pull-up with confidence too. Fox is much more aggressive on offense. He’s a scorer now, a modern point guard. He’s always looking for a chance to use his quickness, and the game has slowed down for him. He’s seeing lanes, noticing guys as they’re about to get open instead of once they already are and it’s too late.

And of course, Fox is at his best in transition. He’s so fast any glimmer of space turns into an opportunity, and his decision making has improved a lot. Fox is making quick, usually correct decisions in transition. All of that was on display as Fox helped the Kings pull away late. It was Fox’s quick transition read assists that added to the lead, a key steal and a rebound that showed up on the other end, and a dagger jumper to put San Antonio away.

Fox finished with 19 points and 7 assists, plus 2 steals and a block. He’s a pest defensively. He’s finishing well at the rim and making an especially impressive 53% from 3-to-16 feet. He and Buddy Hield combine to shoot 43% on almost nine three-point attempts per game. They look like a real NBA back court. Fox still had four turnovers, pushing a little too fast at times. He’s making only 68% of his free throws, a worrisome sign for the improved shooting, though it’s certainly encouraging that his free throw rate has almost doubled.

De’Aaron Fox has taken a leap. It looks like the Kings finally have a franchise player to build around.

3. Both of these teams are probably worse than their records look

Both the Spurs and Kings would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but neither looks likely to stay there.

That’s not much of a surprise for the Kings, who were expected to be one of the worst teams in the West. They’re 8–6 but have a bunch of wins over forgettable teams and convincing losses to upper-echelon squads. They’re 2–6 against teams that look like playoff teams, 6–0 against the rest.

The Kings have an identity now, and they’re fun to watch, but if you actually list out the things they do well, you run out quickly. They run well, they force turnovers, they shoot well, end of list — and one of those is probably a lie. The Kings’ are third best in the NBA at 39% behind the arc, but they’re bottom five in threes attempted and will probably fall back to earth soon. Their 54% on twos is third worst in the league, and 68% at the line is dead last.

The Kings are at their best when they force turnovers and push in transition. But when the game slows down, they’re still unimpressive. The half-court offense is stagnant, waiting for Fox or Buddy to find something. The Kings are bottom seven in rebounding, and the defense still looks bad. They’re allowing the most three-point attempts in the league but opponents are making only 33% of them, sixth worst in the league. History tells us that will even out; if you give up that many looks, they’re going to start to fall.

Sacramento is bottom five in free throws allowed. Their repeated fouling in the third quarter kept the Spurs in the game with easy baskets. The Kings lead the league in turnovers forced, but the half-court offense and defense leave a lot to be desired. It makes sense that they’re struggling against good teams. The Kings offense thrives in chaos, when they can run off a miss or in transition. Good teams will score on their poor defense and take that away.

The Kings aren’t good yet, but they’re moving in the right direction.

The Spurs don’t look great, in part because their offense just doesn’t make much sense. San Antonio is making 38% of its threes — that’s good! — but shooting the second fewest in the league. They’re hitting 83% at the line but bottom ten in free throws attempted. Instead, they’re taking a ton of twos and making only 47% of them. That ranks dead last, and it’s not hard to see why. While the rest of the NBA is trying fewer twos and only taking the easy ones, the Spurs continue to go the other direction. They’re taking over 10% more of their shots from the mid-range than any other NBA team. That’s astounding.

San Antonio has seven guys making 40% of their threes, but they’re not shooting enough. The starters made only four threes against the Kings who allow more 3PA than any team in the league. You may recall DeMar DeRozan finally learning how to shoot threes last year. DeRozan has made five threes for the Spurs. He’s 5-of-25. Both of those numbers are a problem.

The Spurs rank in the top half of the league in both offense and defense, but there’s little reason to believe they’ll stay there. They’ve played a soft schedule thus far, boosting their offensive numbers with the help of facing a lot of terrible defenses — the Kings, the Wolves, twice against the Lakers.

San Antonio isn’t using math in their favor. They’re not shooting enough threes. They’re not getting freebies at the line. They’re bottom three in steals and blocks, and they’re not scoring in transition. Of course, they also don’t turn the ball over or foul the opponent, so that helps limit opportunities. But that alone isn’t enough. It might work for Virginia basketball in the ACC, but it’s no longer good enough in the modern NBA.

Most worrisome of all is the defense. San Antonio lost its best three defenders from a year ago, after all. Pop can coach all he wants, but effort and IQ can only defend so much. The Spurs guards aren’t getting any ball pressure (get well soon, Dejounte Murray), and San Antonio gave up easy open looks at the rim and behind the arc all night. Their old guys might be able to slow the game down in half-court offense, but they can’t keep up on D.

Neither of these teams looked like a real playoff threat Monday night. But at least one of them appears to be moving in the right direction.

10 more takeaways…

1. Marvin Bagley is struggling big time

Well, this is frustrating. One year after wasting Fox’s abilities all season, the Kings are doing the same with Bagley. Instead of playing him with their run-and-gun point guard in space, they’re asking him to be a second big on the bench unit, looking for him to create his own offense out of the post. And Bagley is predictably terrible at that. He gets the ball in the post and stalls, turning the wrong direction, making slow decisions, twice getting an offensive foul. He’s shooting threes, which is good, but the shot doesn’t look good out of his hand. Bagley is active on the boards, his best trait for now, but he looks lost most of the time. He had a 66 offensive rating. He’s a long ways away, but the Kings certainly aren’t helping him.

2. Bogdan Bogdanovic is still the Kings best all around player

The most impressive thing about Sacramento’s early winning is they’ve done most of it without their best player. That’s Bogdan Bogdanovic, who just looks like a guy that “gets it.” He’s excellent with the ball in his hands, a good passer who reads the pick-and-roll well and creates easy looks for teammates. Bogdan Squared is the de factor point guard for the bench unit, and he led the team with 22 points. He’d play for any team in the league.

3. Buddy can really score

Hield looks like a real scorer at the two. He found his groove last year against second units, but it’s working against starters, too. Buddy’s shot has translated in a big way. He’s made 43% of his threes as a King, and he can get an open look coming off screens or find his own shot. He’s arrived as a scorer, leading Sacramento at just under 19ppg.

4. DeMar DeRozan is confusing

Three players in the NBA are averaging 25/6/6: LeBron, KD, and DeRozan. Pretty good list to be on, but I’m not sure he lives up to the numbers. DDR had 23 points and 8 dimes, but it was a quiet 23 and 8, and I didn’t see a ton of creation as much as just having the ball in his hands a lot. DeRozan is taking 46% of his shots on long twos (from 10 feet to the arc) and making 49% of them. That’s good for now but it’s almost 10% above his career average, and once it inevitably fades, DeRozan’s efficiency will too. Only 5-for-25 threes all season is a problem. That’s like one bad J.R. Smith night.

5. LaMarcus Aldridge is trending down

Aldridge had a monster bounce-back season last year but appears to be trending in the wrong direction. He put up 14 and 18 but was a game worst -18 and struggled to keep up with Sacto’s pace. Aldridge is making a career low 45% of his twos, his shooting down at every level. The Spurs offense needs a lot more from a guy that was All-NBA caliber only a few months ago.v

6. Willie Cauley-Stein’s offensive usage continues to baffle

I remember watching the Kings last year thinking it was odd how many touches Cauley-Stein got, assuming it was because of coaching, tanking, and a lack of talent. Well, the touches are still there, and I can’t figure out why. WCS has improved his finishing, and he’s a nice passer, but there are still way too many times (read: more than zero) when the Kings dump the ball into the post and expect Willie to do something. He’s way too aggressive on offense and too much of a ball stopper at times. Cauley-Stein is essentially second on the team in shots attempted, tied with Fox. WCS, WYD?

7. Harry Giles is not ready yet

This was the best game of Giles’s young NBA career, setting career highs in both points (12) and rebounds (6) in 16 minutes. Of course he also had three turnovers and five fouls, aka one mistake every two minutes out there. Giles is fine. He’s solid in the post, though with a massive usage rate. He averages nine fouls and five turnovers per 36 which is… grabs calculator, mashes keys, carry the one… real bad. Giles played in the G League the day before this game. Looks like he’ll be back there soon.

8. The Kings bench unit is ugly

Sacramento’s bench unit was Frank Mason, Bogdanovic, Justin Jackson, Bagley, and Giles. As they checked in, my notes read, “Kings bench is gonna get murdered,” and lo, they did. San Antonio’s bench is still an advantage, with crafty players like Patty Mills, Rudy Gay, and Marco Belinelli making an impact. The Kings bench kept San Antonio in the game.

9. The starting lineups were weird

As the lineups flashed, I read the names Bryn Forbes, Dante Cunningham, Iman Shumpert, and Nemanja Bjelica. Is there such a thing as watcher’s remorse? Bjelica belonged but the other three offered very little. I’d start Fox, Buddy, Bogdanovic, Bjelica, and Bagley. They’ll get murdered defensively and on the bench, but they are anyway. Give Fox shooters and spacing, put two playmakers out there, and give Bagley a chance at his best position to succeed.

10. The Spurs are a bottom five League Pass team

They’re slow and plodding and unimaginative. Go ahead, tell me five NBA teams you’d rather watch. I’ll wait.

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