The Minnesota Timberwolves could end up winners in the Jimmy Butler trade

Philadelphia got the best player, but Minnesota may have made the best long-term move in the modern NBA

Our long national nightmare is over. The Jimmy Butler saga has finally ended. After a long standoff with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Tom Thibodeau, Butler was finally traded Saturday to the Philadelphia 76ers for Robert Covington, Dario Saric, and cap filler. Jimmy Butler is a Sixer. He joins Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to give Philadelphia one of the league’s most fearsome trios, and Minnesota is an obvious loser after a saga gone awry.

But not everything is as it seems in the modern NBA, and we often get these big trades wrong. Oklahoma City was a clear winner in the Paul George trade, right up until they weren’t. The Pelicans didn’t win the Boogie trade, and maybe Minnesota didn’t win the Butler trade a year ago after all.

But what if they did? And what if they won this deal too? Philadelphia is the immediate winner in a Butler deal with an obviously raised ceiling, but could Minnesota win the deal in the end? The Timberwolves may have made the better long-term move in the modern NBA. Here are five reasons Minnesota might win this trade when all is said and done…

1. The impending Jimmy Butler contract will be bad, bad, bad

It was pretty obvious Butler had no intention of staying in Minnesota and signed any extension, but the initial deal was made with the expectation that he would stay long-term. But there’s reason to believe that could’ve doomed the team for years to come.

Butler is 29 and has his eye on a five-year max contract which would pay him something in the range of $190 million for his age 30 to 34 seasons. It’s telling that Butler pushed so hard to get out of town now instead of just waiting for free agency. Anyone could’ve signed him next summer, but only the team with Butler on the roster as he enters free agency can add that fifth year. If Butler gets the full max as expected, he’ll make over $43 million at age 34. Woof.

That’s Philadelphia’s problem now. That $43 million will be spent on a player well past his prime in a season in which Ben Simmons is 27, Joel Embiid is 29, and the Sixers should be in peak contention. Instead they’ll be spending over 35% of their cap room on a player who may not even be starter-caliber.

Butler has already dealt with a history of nagging injuries. He’s missed at least 15 games in all but one season as a starter and has struggled to play a huge minutes load, something both he and the team knew all too well. The most recent injury was a meniscus tear, an injury that tends to be associated with chronic knee problems as the meniscus erodes and leaves bone-on-bone issues.

Butler has been Tom Thibodeau’s workhorse, and we already know what happens to those workhorses: they break. Luol Deng was the player most similar to Butler for Thibs. He started breaking down at age 28 and was completely washed by age 31. Joakim Noah began declining at age 29 and was useless from age 30 forward. Derrick Rose didn’t even make it that far. None of those players ever made an All-Star team after age 28. Jimmy Butler just turned 29. He has already played over 15,000 minutes. Rose, Noah, and Taj Gibson are all just short of 18k for their careers. That 15k is by no means a death knell for an NBA career, but Butler’s injury history combined with his Thibs usage throw up some serious red flags.

Part of what made Jimmy Butler so valuable these past few years was his contract. Clearly a max-level player, Butler was making under $20 million every season. Now it’s time for Butler to get his. Instead of being increasingly underpaid as his talents grow, he’ll be increasingly overpaid as his talents and athletic abilities wane.

Assuming Butler gets his max, he’ll make around $33 million next season. Robert Covington and Dario Saric will make under $15 million combined. Minnesota didn’t just trade Butler for Dario and RoCo — they also got $18 million in cap space. Minnesota will still be around $109 million if Jeff Teague opts into his deal, which likely puts them over the cap. But even if he doesn’t opt out or the team doesn’t choose to save almost $10 million by stretching Gorgui Dieng, the difference saves Minnesota ownership millions of dollars and keeps them out of the luxury tax. A 2019 roster with a Butler max extension would’ve gone well over $125 million. There’s no assurance Minnesota would have even done that.

In year two of Butler’s max deal, he’ll make over $35 million. Covington will be at $12 million. Saric will need to sign an extension that starts then. If you assume something like 4 years for $55 million — and one great thing about Saric is that he does the little undervalued things that should typically keep him on a bargain deal — that’s probably around $12 million for Saric. You still get two starters for the price of one, plus an additional $11 million leftover.

By the final year of Butler’s max, he’d make over $43 million at age 34. The history of Thibs players suggests he may not even be playing real minutes at that point, let alone a star player worthy of a max deal. That’s over a third of the cap in what could be dead money, right as Simmons, Embiid, Wiggins, and Towns are all at their prime. Would you rather be paying 34-year-old Butler $43 million or Saric $15 million with an additional $28 million to spare? It’s a pretty obvious choice.

Jimmy Butler is a great player, maybe top-10 player in the league — right now. He might not be by the time his extension kicks in next year. Halfway through his deal, Philadelphia will be paying almost $40 million a year to its third best player, and by the end they’ll be in salary cap hell.

Losing Butler hurts right now. But keeping him on a max deal could’ve hurt a lot more for a lot longer.

2. Jimmy Butler never fit this Minnesota team or timeline properly anyway

I was all for the Butler trade when it happened. I didn’t love the pieces Minnesota was giving up, and Butler was a top-10 player who could change everything. Worst-case scenario, I argued, Butler gave two good years and got Minnesota into the playoffs, Towns and Wiggins learned and grew a lot, and Butler walked. Turns out the worst-case scenario was worse.

Still, as the dust settled on the deal for Butler, I was left wondering what exactly the plan was — not just for that but for the other big free agent moves, with the money splashed on Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson. The combined moves fractured this team’s timeline. Minnesota was never supposed to be at its best with 23-year-old Wiggins and Towns. Those two guys are the franchise, and this was always going to be the long game, even more so in a league that includes LeBron James and these Warriors. Minnesota was never going to come close to winning a title with this iteration of the team, but they could have a chance later once KAT and Wiggins develop. Butler, Teague, and Taj were never going to be part of that team.

Jimmy Butler is at his best right now, and logic says he will only get worse going forward as he ages and as injuries continue to catch up. Unfortunately, any players at the back end of their prime just aren’t as valuable right now. You can only win so much in this Warriors era. That’s the value of Towns and Wiggins — they’ll be able to win later. Butler never fit that timeline.

Even in the short-term, this never fit right. Jimmy Butler is at his best as the best player on offense. If you built a perfect Butler team, what would it look like? You’d want a team similar to Butler’s old Chicago teams. You’d want a nasty defensive center, good defenders all around, and players that shoot and space well on offense without needing the ball. Does that sound like Minnesota? Not even remotely. Jimmy Butler needs the ball in his hands, and that meant less touches for Towns and Wiggins. Minnesota fans had grown more than weary with Butler’s repeated hero ball in crunch time.

That’s Philadelphia’s problem now. Philly’s defense certainly fits the scenario just described. The Sixers will be filthy defensively — but they already were. It’s the offense that could be a worry. Haven’t we already seen trouble for a talented young center who suddenly doesn’t get enough touches? What about a talented young handler who’s best with the ball in his hands and not particularly useful off the ball? Philadelphia somehow has even less shooting than Minnesota, and that’s not even considering the Markelle Fultz problem. Butler raises Philly’s immediate ceiling but he’s likely to hurt Simmons and Embiid’s development. He’ll also take the salary of multiple starters on a team that already has two max players. He’ll need to be a locker room leader on a team full of young players, and he’ll need to figure out how to age in reverse since Philly’s championship window begins in a few years once the Warriors fade and Simmons and Embiid’s primes hit.

Doesn’t all of that sound awfully familiar? Good luck with that, Philly.

3. The new Minnesota timeline fits much better

Towns and Wiggins are 23. Saric is 24. Talented rookie Josh Okogie is 20. Covington is 28. These players are all on the same timeline.

Fast forward three years. The Warriors are dead. The Rockets are no more. LeBron can’t possibly still be LeBron. Now teams like the Nuggets and Jazz top the West, while the balance of power has finally swung East as Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee battle for league supremacy.

At that same time, Towns and Wiggins will be 26, just entering their primes. Saric will be 27. Covington will be 31, still useful. Okogie will be 23, the same age as Wiggins and KAT now. That team could really contend, and in a much more contend-able West.

The Butler trade also makes Minnesota worse this year — and that’s a good thing. The best way to improve a young team is by adding cheap, young talent. Minnesota is unlikely to make the playoffs. They were a long shot once the Butler mess started, and a 4–9 start only digs a bigger hole. Best case scenario, the Wolves rally to snag one of the final spots and lose in the first round again. But it’s a lot more likely Minnesota finishes out of the playoff race and ends up with something like the 12th pick in the draft. That’s another potentially good player, and another one that will fit the right timeline. Minnesota can count its blessings that they made the playoffs last year and already gave up the pick they owed in the Adreian Payne deal. Now they get to keep this year’s pick, and it’s suddenly looking valuable.

Honestly, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for this team to bottom out further. The West is loaded. Isn’t it possible Minnesota could be like the third worst team in the West? That could mean the #7 or #8 pick, instead of picking around 20th as Wolves fans might have assumed entering the season. In last year’s draft, that means getting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Kevin Knox instead of Aaron Holiday or Chandler Hutchison. In 2017, it meant getting Justin Patton instead of Lauri Markkanen. Too soon?

Maybe the Wolves would’ve been better off never making this deal at all. After all, don’t Zach LaVine (age 23) and Markkanen (21) fit this timeline pretty well? Didn’t the Wolves just trade LaVine, Markkanen, and Kris Dunn for Covington and Saric, and isn’t that clearly a loss?

No, and no. First of all, Minnesota didn’t just get Covington and Saric. They also got a season of Jimmy Butler at a bargain price and made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons. Ask any Wolves fan — that was not nothing. And secondly, are you sure you wouldn’t do that trade? LaVine can score but is one of the worst defenders in the league. He’s basically Andrew Wiggins, and now he’s getting paid like it. Minnesota would have either been screwed financially or let LaVine walk for nothing. Markkanen made 36% of his threes last year. Saric made 39% and is a better passer and defender. Dunn is just a guy. Covington fits better next to Towns and Wiggins than any other name mentioned, and Saric might already be as good as Markkanen’s median outcome.

Butler, Markkanen, and LaVine have more talent, but Covington and Saric may fit a winning basketball team better.

4. The new Wolves actually fit the modern NBA

Any Timberwolves discussion starts with Towns and Wiggins, no matter what you think of either player. So what sort of guys fit best around them?

It’s hard to build a better fit than Robert Covington. Covington is as good a wing defender as anyone in the league. He was First Team All Defense last year and can guard most players one to five. Covington is a true 3-and-D guy. He’s made 37% of his threes the last two seasons and he’s a low usage player who won’t take touches away from Wiggins or Towns. Covington will space the offense and stay out of the way, then wreck the opponent’s best player on defense. He’ll do the things Minnesota has been asking Wiggins to do and the things Butler was never willing to do.

Most seem to consider Dario Saric an afterthought. I beg to differ. At times, Saric was the straw that stirred Philadelphia’s drink on offense. Their offense was at its best when he was. Saric is a classic Euro player who can do a bit of everything. He’s a good handler and strong passer for a big man, and he should get more of a playmaking role in Minnesota. He plays with emotion and does a lot of the little energy things you want from a modern four.

And he can shoot. That seems to be disputed by many because Saric has made only 30% of his threes this year. Nonsense. Saric is 21-for-70. One hot night — say five more makes — and Saric is a 37% shooter. Shooting stats mean very little this early. Saric shot 40% behind the arc his final season in Europe, 30% as a rookie on a garbage Philly team in which he was asked to do way too much, then bounced back to 39% last year. That 39% on 399 attempts is far more telling than 70 shots this year. Saric is a career 83% free throw shooter. The guy can shoot. Heck, there’s about a 1-in-15 chance that a 40% shooter could sit at only 30% through 70 threes. Flip a coin four times. Did you get four tails in a row? Eh, it happens sometimes. History and math tell us there’s a far better chance Saric is a good shooter than a bad one.

Wiggins and Towns are both making 40% of their threes this season. Teague and Rose can shoot. For the first time ever, Minnesota can play lineups with five shooters out there. That’s modern 2018 basketball.

With a modern offense, think of the space Wiggins will have to operate in. He’s at his best driving to the basket and creating in space. What will Towns look like in space? More space means more room for him to operate in the pick-and-roll where he’s already deadly, and it should give him more room to operate in the post, where he’s admittedly struggled this season.

Covington and Saric fit modern team-building better too. You can’t have three max guys in the modern NBA unless they are a truly special trio. Miami pulled it off with LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, but don’t forget how barren the roster was around those guys. The Warriors have done it with their core. But most of the time it’s too hard to have three max guys — especially when one of them clearly isn’t a max-level player. You need bargain contracts, like veterans on long, cheap extensions or role players on rookie deals. You need some guys that dominate the ball and others that are best fitting a role.

Minnesota will pay Wiggins and Covington $36 million this year. LaVine and Trevor Ariza got paid $20 million and $15 million as free agents this summer. Wiggins and Covington are better for the same price. Covington’s cheap price tag mitigates the negative value of Wiggins’s monster max deal.

Minnesota should take this one step further. If they’re not going to contend this year, they should trade their other veterans. Taj would be a coveted trade chip. Anthony Tolliver’s shooting is valuable. Teague could be intriguing to teams like the Pistons, Magic, Suns, Knicks, or Clippers. Dealing these players clears more cap and nets another young player or pick. When you don’t have to win now, there are a lot more options.

Welcome to the modern NBA and the modern world of team-building. Now the Wolves just need a coach and a GM to join them there.

5. The trade helps Wiggins and Towns the most

Towns had his best offensive season as a sophomore, before Butler joined the team, averaging 25 points and 12 boards on 18 field goal attempts a game. He’s under 20ppg on 14 FGA the rest of his career.

He was even better the second half of that sophomore season, when LaVine went out with a torn ACL. In 31 games, Towns averaged 29 points and 13 boards on absurd 60/41/87 shooting splits. Those numbers are just silly. He did that with more touches and more opportunities on offense. No Butler and no LaVine means Towns finally has those chances again, by default.

The trade could help Wiggins even more. Wiggins is never going to be a great defender, but now he has Okogie and Covington to protect him on defense. On offense, the deal means more time on the ball for Wiggins, and in an offense that is spaced out better. Wiggins is at his best with the ball in his hands attacking, just like Butler. He’s improving as a shooter, actually hitting 40% of his threes on a career high 5.3 attempts per game. But he’s attempted fewer twos and free throw attempts than ever, and the best version of Wiggins is one that gets into the paint and draws fouls, getting to the line for efficient scoring opportunities. If Wiggins keeps his newfound shooting and finds his handling and foul drawing game again, he’ll look a lot better.

Like Towns, Wiggins’s best career stretch also came in those 31 games in 2017 without LaVine or Butler around, in which he averaged 26ppg and drew over seven free throws a game. Even if Wiggins doesn’t blossom into a max player, his counting numbers are almost certain to improve, and that will only increase his potential trade value if Minnesota decides to move on. Wiggins will either be more valuable or he’ll at least look more valuable. Both of those are wins for Minnesota.

They’ll never try it under Thibs, but what would a Minnesota lineup look like with Wiggins as the nominal point guard? Can I interest you in a Wiggins, Okogie, Covington, Saric, Towns lineup? The offense runs through Wiggins and Towns, and three role players compliment them and play defense. That team is big and long, and that lineup could do some damage.

The immediate future in Minnesota is darker, and not just because of Daylight Savings and winter. But there’s a lot of reason to find optimism in this Minnesota trade long-term. Wolves fans just need to be patient and take the long view. It’s entirely possible they’ll find themselves the winners of this deal with the help of a little time and perspective.

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