An Explanation of the Geopolitical Trends
US-China Relationship Is Still In A Trade Conundrum
Of course when talking about the United States-China relationship we should be looking closely at the issues surrounding raw materials because the future supplies are coming from the world’s most vulnerable areas. For instance, I wrote about the BRICS 2023 Summit explaining how expansion comes at the expense of food security. Many of the BRICS members are vulnerable to the global food crisis, and thus their domestic politics will be more volatile in the future. Raw materials scenarios are no exception.
France-China Investment Scenarios Are Getting Problematic
France and China is a different problem. France cannot ignore that the country must be more dependent on China for its economy and trade. However, French leaders can take a stronger stance on their raw materials position vis-a-vis a more problematic scenario for critical raw materials. China also needs France as one of its key export markets, so this will be a big test for how the two countries use leverage against each other for investments.
Russia-Ukraine Maritime Conflict Has Highest Risk
To understand the full picture of maritime conflict between Russia and Ukraine, read an analysis about what’s happening in the Black Sea right now. According to the latest news report, hi-tech naval drones are taking the conflict to a new level of intensity. Drones will allow Ukraine to carry out more precise attacks, while also targeting certain ships or infrastructure of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Read more about the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the analysis about what’s happening in the Black Sea.
Russia’s Airspace Control Is A Warning To Maritime Neighbors
Russia’s next move is to take control of the airspace around its maritime borders. This is basically a new phase of the maritime conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as more and more surveillance is being carried out around Russia’s maritime borders. This is absolutely in response to the escalating situation in the Black Sea, as the attacks on infrastructure are still disrupting grain and food exports to emerging markets.
Cyprus Plays An Important Role In East Med Energy Projects
Cyprus’s Aphrodite natural gas field is crucial to the country’s energy security in the near-term. That’s why it must use all of its power and influence to negotiate the best deal for the country’s national interests. This offshore development project will undoubtedly cause international issues, since Israel and Egypt are two of the main beneficiaries of the gas export scenarios. Turkey also has its own interests in a nearby offshore gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean. Since sanctions on Russian energy exports are causing countries to rethink industrial policies, this will be another issue of leverage between Russia and Turkey in the future.
In Areas & Producers, we are always wanting to put the global commodities in perspective, and for what it means to the geopolitical trends in any given regional context around the world. It’s important to know the role of the United States and China within the future scenarios for world events.
To know more about the future scenarios and geopolitical trends, read this full story in Areas & Producers: Future Scenarios & Geopolitical Trends For The Latest World Events.