Analysis: What’s Happening In The Black Sea Right Now?

It’s not hard to find news reports about the Black Sea these days. Unfortunately, most of the news should come across as very negative. But, the Black Sea is also a very popular tourist destination in Eastern Europe.

A lot of the focus is on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and what it will be doing in the maritime domain to achieve its goals in the war with Ukraine. Germany’s media source DW recently wrote about the Black Sea’s role in Russia’s war on Ukraine to explain the maritime domain’s significance. An even more dramatic story is about the recent staging and landing operation carried out by Russian military forces in the Black Sea, where a helicopter and team of military personnel stormed a vessel, yelling: “Stop machine”.

Tensions in the Black Sea are heating up. Both Russia and Ukraine have made aggressive statements aimed at provoking each other.

Ukrinform released a statement on behalf of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stating that Russian ships passing through a newly proposed corridor for merchant ships will not be observed.

Even while Russian ships have allegedly sought to intimidate other merchant ships in support of Ukrainian trade around the Black Sea, they are reportedly based in the northeastern part of the Black Sea near Russian territory. See the map below:

You can see from the map above that Russia’s Black Sea maritime areas include Novorossiyk and Sochi.

Meanwhile, a lot of the merchant ships are being spotted at coastal areas around Bulgaria and Romania. See Varna and Constanta on the map.

It was also reported on 13 August 2023 that Russia fired warning shots, using automatic weapons from a naval vessel, at merchant ships operating in the Black Sea. These warning shots were followed up by a staging and landing manoeuvre carried out by Russian military forces.

These are very serious incidents. Although there have not been any casualties reported, it is the first sign of things to come as more and more merchant ships appear to be resuming activities on the Black Sea. It’s important to remember that the Black Sea is a vital trade route for all of the countries in this maritime area: Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania.

Bulgaria and Romania are increasing local production of naval ships and other facilities in response to these tensions. For instance, the Bulgarian Navy is building its first modern corvette at the MTG Dolphin Shipyard in Varna. According to a definition by Britannica a corvette is a small, fast naval vessel that ranks lower than a frigate. A corvette is easier to manufacture and maintain, which is important to ramping up large-scale production in a timely manner.

Romania’s navy also announced on 14 August 2023 that it will deploy a ship and helicopter to search for mines on the Black Sea coast. Mines are a constant threat from both land and maritime areas. In this case, mines in the Black Sea have been used to deter advancements by ships seeking to find other shipping routes for grains and other commodities from Russia and Ukraine.

There’s also this discussion about reviving legacy systems versus acquiring or building the newest/more advanced combat systems. The latter is an important discussion on the future of NATO.

I’ts not clear which countries are willing to invest in more advanced combat systems. This will also require thorough training and education programs between owners of the newest, more advanced combat systems and the buyers.

All of this is the most important aspect for effective maintanence, repair and overhaul (MRO) in the Black Sea maritime domain.

MRO is a concept that should be closely followed by anyone interested in military affairs. MRO allows countries (in most cases allied countries) to set up facilities for multinational aircrafts that promote defense cooperation between them. By setting up this engine manufacturing facility, it could mean that India will become a MRO hub for countries in the Indo-Pacific, like the United States, Australia and Japan.

To illustrate, Germany and India are reportedly in talks to co-develop advanced military submarines. This is definitely a turning point in the Indo-Pacific strategy being led by the United States to establish closer defense ties with countries such as India, Japan and Australia. The latter form “The Quad” — the four countries with significant interests in protecting the Indian and Pacific oceans under a quadrilateral framework of defense and security cooperation in the maritime domain.

The volatility in global commodities markets will surely exacerbate the situation between Russia and Ukraine — witness the Black Sea Grain Initiative — as many countries are likely to deepen its dependence on the two countries for grain and fertilizers in the future.

The ongoing effects from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in international politics have raised the issues on global food security throughout the developing world. The issues of concern here have been thoroughly analyzed and covered due to the devestating impacts to food security brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine is an important agricultural producer and exporter of grain and wheat to countries throughout Africa and the Middle East regions. Russia, on the other hand, is a very important fertilzer producer and exporter for which it has been using as political leverage over the Black Sea Grain Deal. This has given birth to a new concept in international affairs called “fertilizer diplomacy”.

This is also relevant to what’s happening in the Black Sea right, since militarization and re-building is commencing in support of Ukraine by its Black Sea neighbours, particularly Romania and Bulgaria.

Romania and Bulgaria are advancing their capabilities as NATO partners. On the Black Sea, the two countries already serve as key links for defense and security cooperation with other NATO members. Now, it appears that the two countries are expanding on their capabilities in arms deals and defense cooperation as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In this scenario the next two countries to watch are Georgia and Belarus.

Georgia has already experienced a Russian invasion of its two seperatist territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in 2008 when Georgia’s leader Mikheil Saakashvili tried to force them into Georgian control. They were previously considered to be autonomous regions of Georgia.

As for Belarus, the situation is a lot more complicated. Belarus is an important fertilizer producer and exporter of potash. Yet it also serves as a strategic location for Russia’s land-based military campaigns, with lots of exercises and training capacity for Russian military soldiers there.

Georgia and Belarus are important political questions for Russia’s future. This war between Russia and Ukraine, however, is increasingly focused on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. That’s why the maritime domain has become so important for what’s happening in the Black Sea right now.

If you want to know more about the relevant and recent events in the Russia-Ukraine war, follow the publication Areas & Producers.

The Weekend Brief (TWB) newsletter is looking at international issues affecting publicly-traded companies operating in the global markets (including stock markets) at the nexus of tech, industrials and global commodities. Please sign up for TWB newsletter by Areas & Producers.