2019 NBA Draft — Ranking the Centers

Jaxson Hayes, Bol Bol, and Goga Bitadze are tantalizing, but which one is the best center prospect in the 2019 NBA Draft?

THE 2019 NBA DRAFT IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER, and that means it’s officially time to put together big boards and final rankings. We’re going to divide prospects and rank them by position, then put together a final big board at the end. Today we start with centers.

No position is changing more rapidly in the modern NBA. Gone are the days of Shaq and Hakeem patrolling the paint, and teams no longer build around a franchise big man. More and more teams are going the opposite direction, grabbing a bunch of options in free agency or cheap draft picks and seeing what sticks, cobbling together center minutes among the many 7-foot options. That greatly changes the value of centers as draft propositions, and the changing role of a big man should inform our rankings in a huge way.

I spent some time thinking about the different roles played by centers in the modern NBA and put them into four buckets: offense-first, defense-first, rim runners, and balanced. Be sure to read that piece on draft theory if you haven’t yet. Let’s zoom out a bit and look a bit more at the value of centers in the modern NBA draft, then analyze and rank this year’s top nine prospects. Below are my rankings for the other four position groups:

Center draft value in and outside the lottery

First, an aside on center hits and misses from this decade’s drafts.

I was curious how likely it is to get a “steal” at center later in the draft, outside the lottery. I was also curious what the hit rate looked like for center lottery picks. Looking back at the drafts since 2011, these are the players I’m calling steals, along with their draft pick. I bolded full-time centers and italicized fours that play some center:

Recent draft steals

2011 — Kawhi Leonard 15, Nikola Vucevic 16, Tobias Harris 19, Jimmy Butler 30, Chandler Parsons 38

2012 — Jae Crowder 34, Draymond Green 35, Khris Middleton 39, Will Barton 40

2013 — Giannis Antetokounmpo 15, Rudy Gobert 27, Robert Covington undrafted

2014 — Jusuf Nurkic 16, Gary Harris 19, Clint Capela 25, Spencer Dinwiddie 38, Nikola Jokic 41

2015 — Larry Nance Jr. 27, Montrezl Harrell 32, Josh Richardson 40

2016 — Caris LeVert 20, Pascal Siakam 27, Dejounte Murray 29, Malcolm Brogdon 36, Fred VanVleet undrafted

2017 — John Collins 19, OG Anunoby 23, Kyle Kuzma 27, Derrick White 29, Monte Morris 51

2018 — Landry Shamet 26, Mitchell Robinson 36

So what can we learn from that list of draft steals this decade?

Uh… drafting is hard. That’s my biggest takeaway. There is no clear archetype to target late in the draft. There’s no single position that’s a steal more or less often. There’s no team scooping up all the value picks. If you see any better conclusion or pattern I’m missing, I’m all ears in the comments.

Heck, a lot of the values on this list weren’t even values for a good while, some of them never for the team that drafted them. Maybe some of them weren’t draft steals at all; maybe they’re just hard workers who found the right environment and became good players. Even the 2015 and 2016 breakouts didn’t really happen until just this season. There’s 32 “steals” on that list. Seven of them are centers, about what you’d expect considering there’s five positions, and six more are fours, again about expectation.

It is interesting that five of the seven centers are non-U.S. prospects, so there’s that. And if you add in the fact that most of the fours listed above also play some center, it becomes apparent how (relatively) easy it is to find useful center minutes outside the lottery. But that got me thinking. What about inside the lottery? These are the big man lottery picks over the same time frame. I’m including centers along with fours that spent some time at center.

Recent center lottery picks

2011 — Enes Kanter 3, Tristan Thompson 4, Jonas Valanciunas 5, Bismack Bioymbo 7

2012 — Anthony Davis 1, Thomas Robinson 5, Andre Drummond 9, Meyers Leonard 11, John Henson 14

2013 — Cody Zeller 4, Alex Len 5, Nerlens Noel 6, Steven Adams 12

2014 — Joel Embiid 3, Julius Randle 7, Noah Vonleh 9

2015 — Karl-Anthony Towns 1, Jahlil Okafor 3, Kristaps Porzingis 4, Willie Cauley-Stein 6, Frank Kaminsky 9, Myles Turner 11

2016 — Dragan Bender 4, Marquese Chriss 8, Jakob Poeltl 9, Thon Maker 10, Domantas Sabonis 11, Georgios Papagiannis 13

2017 — Jonathan Isaac 6, Lauri Markkanen 7, Zach Collins 10, Bam Adebayo 14

2018 — Deandre Ayton 1, Marvin Bagley 2, Jaren Jackson Jr. 4, Mo Bamba 6, Wendell Carter Jr. 7

Egads! That’s 38 centers taken in the lottery in the last eight drafts, an average of almost five per season. Put another way, over one-third of the lottery picks this decade have been used on centers. What are we doing!? We all watch modern basketball and see the impact of the center fading further and further. Why are we drafting so many centers so high? Is it because it’s so clear and easy to recognize their one definite skill — being gigantic?

The players in bold above are the draft picks teams were definitely really happy with looking back, while italics represent busts. I didn’t judge the past two draft classes yet. Out of 28 center lottery picks between 2011–18, I see only 8 of them that paid off, a paltry 29% hit rate. But it’s even worse than that. Three of the hits were Brow, KAT, and Embiid, understood by anyone watching as the clear #1 talent in each of their drafts. Take those names out and only 5 of 25 other center prospects ended up being great picks, just 20%. Compare that to the italicized busts, where 11 of the non-#1 center picks were basically disasters for their team, a full 44%.

Drafting is really hard, and there are busts at every position. But this decade, taking a center that’s not the clear #1 talent in the draft yields something like a 1-in-5 chance of success and a near 50–50 chance at completely missing. Woof. Look again at the names from the last two drafts that it’s too early to make a call on: Isaac, Markkanen, Z.Collins, Bam, Ayton, Bagley, JJJ, Bamba, WCJ. The numbers suggest only two of those picks will end up being viewed as a success while four of them will wash out entirely.

It’s interesting too that even the successful center picks outside the #1 prospect group don’t exactly blow you away. That’s Drummond, Adams, Porzingis, Turner, and Sabonis. The jury’s still out on Kristaps pending health, but none of the others are franchise guys. You might get an occasional All-Star appearance but none of them are making All-NBA. Compare those successes to the centers found outside the lottery: Vooch, Gobert, Nurkic, Capela, Jokic, Harrell. That group is clearly better.

Maybe it’s just a fluke that we keep finding star centers late in the draft, but it certainly appears that we are not very good identifying center prospects in the lottery. This data would make me extremely leery of investing a lottery pick in a big man going forward unless the player is the clear #1 talent. There’s just too high a bust rate among centers and too many successes later in the draft. It’s a good position to swing on later, especially on a more unknown non-U.S. prospect, and that seems like a much better pick investment than the lottery. Maybe that means I occasionally miss on quality players like Andre Drummond or Myles Turner, but it also means missing out on a litany of busts. At the very least, a team should consider trading their lottery pick down and taking two or three bites at the big-man apple later in the draft. Or perhaps they should just use their lottery pick on a guard or wing.

This year Zion is the clear #1 pick, and whether he’s a “center” or not is not relevant here. Outside of him, there’s no center that’s even close to a “sure thing” enough for me to overlook the data above, so I’m leaving them outside the lottery and taking chances later, opting for smaller players earlier with a bigger number of paths to providing value.

Okay, enough preamble on centers and draft value. Let’s get to this year’s notable prospects. We’ll start at the top with the draft’s safest center pick, who may not have the pizzazz or upside look of some of the other prospects, but he’s an international with plenty of pro success and looks a likely hit.

TIER I — THE SAFE STARTER

1. Goga Bitadze, Georgia

Profile

Goga is the latest Euro center prospect, and you might have noticed that an extremely high percentage of the league’s top centers are coming from outside the U.S. lately. Bitadze took huge strides forward in the Adriatic League this year, where players like Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic got their start. He’s a big-bodied center with good instincts, fluid athleticism for his size, a growing jump shot, and a lot of defensive potential.

Scouting analysis

I’m a late adapter to Bitadze because he’s an international prospect and there’s not a ton of game footage available for scouting. That generally means I’m more conservative rankings international players, and Goga is my only international player with a first-round grade this year (including likely lottery pick Sekou Doumbouya). Even still, he grades out as my top center prospect, so that should tell you what a safe prospect he may be.

I wasn’t excited about Bitadze early on because I thought he had no chance defensively based on the highlights and footage I saw from last year. He looked slow-footed and unathletic and the jump shot was nonexistent. I looked at Bitadze and saw Enes Kanter, a nice Euro post player that couldn’t contribute much else. But then I watched this year’s film and everything changed. Goga looks spry now. He’s moving far better laterally, helping him defend in space and on the perimeter, and he’s starting to shoot. He’s made serious strides and is still yet to turn 20.

Goga is still going to struggle to switch onto great guards, but that remains true of most centers. He’s a good paint defender with outstanding block numbers for his age, and his slimmed-down frame helps him hang on defense. But it’s Goga’s team defense that is more impressive. He has a natural feel for the game and great awareness so his defensive position is strong and makes up for the lack of athletic explosion. Bitadze is a strong rebounder and his raw offensive skill set is rounding out. He’s dribbling and passing better, and his soft touch near the rim is turning into a splashy jumper. Goga is crafty and his quick improvement this year shows a high level understanding of the game. He’s comfortable with the ball in his hands now and can finish near the rim or attack on the roll.

NBA expectations

Bitadze doesn’t have that one standout ability. He doesn’t have the passing of Jontay, the body of Jaxson, or the WTFness of Bol. He’s just well-rounded and average or above at everything. And it turns out that is really valuable, especially among centers. Bitadze looks like he could fall into the “balanced” bucket of NBA centers, which makes him an unexciting but useful piece, a likely NBA starter, and a guy that holds his value in the postseason.

He’s unlikely to be an offensive star — few centers have more than a negligible offensive impact — so Goga is a bet on defensive IQ, positioning, and rim protection. If he’s an average defender, mostly useful in the post, then he might peak as something like Jonas Valanciunas. If he turns out to be a plus defender, he can be more like Jusuf Nurkic — a good player on defense alone the last few years, and the second best Blazer now that he’s good on offense too. Think Marc Gasol or Brad Miller as a high-end outcome.

Are you excited yet? Not until you see what Gasol is doing in the NBA Finals past his prime at age 34, still a difference maker with his basketball savvy and balanced skills. We’re talking about a decent likelihood of a +1/+2 type player who ends up giving you a decade of 30mpg seasons as the 5th to 10th best center in the league. That’s not sexy but it’s valuable. Because there are so many fungible centers in the NBA, I don’t want to take one in the lottery unless they have superstar talent. But there’s a very reasonable path for Bitadze to end up a top-5-to-8 player in this draft.

Best team fits

The great thing about centers in the balanced bucket is that they fit on just about any team. The problem is figuring out which team needs a center, since the NBA is so overstocked. Bitadze makes sense to Atlanta, Washington, or Charlotte in the back half of the lottery, probably a day one starter for all three. I really like him to the Celtics or Spurs, an obvious fit for a smart team that would use him well (and it’s always complimentary if you pick Boston or San Antonio as a great fit for a prospect). If Goga slides, Philly, Portland, and Brooklyn would all be great landing spots. Bitadze isn’t an exciting draft night pick, but he’s probably going to be a good one.

TIER II — THE OFFENSIVE SAVANT

2. Jontay Porter, Missouri

Profile

Jontay Porter is unquestionably my favorite big man in the draft. All that stuff we said about not picking a center in the lottery? I’d have thrown it all out for Jontay, a special, gifted passer with a preternatural feel for the game. He reclassified a year ago, heading to Missouri early to play with his brother Michael (yes, that MPJ). Jontay nearly entered the draft with him but opted to come back, then tore his ACL and MCL and missed the entire season. If that wasn’t bad enough, he tore the ACL a second time in March. He’s still only 19 years old but the injury red flags are huge. Jontay is short for a center with a small wingspan and a lack of strength and elite athleticism. He doesn’t look like a successful center. So why do I think he is one?

Scouting analysis

The body is not great. Porter is 6'11" with a 7'0" wingspan, and he’s not a good NBA athlete. He’s not fast and not a great leaper, and he’s going to need to improve cut body fat and add core strength. Watch Jontay Porter for a minute and you think this guy has no chance defensively as a big man. He looks too slow to guard fours and too small to protect the rim. But watch closer and you’ll see a player who makes up for a lack of athleticism with an immense understanding of basketball. Porter reads things well on defense and is always in the right spot. He has good hips and moves well laterally, and he moves his feet well in defense and can usually stay in front of the attacker. He also talks well on defense, organizing his team, and he ranked 95th percentile in rim protection last year even with the body disadvantages. Watch Jontay closely and you’ll see he’s not only not a bad defender; he may actually be a good one.

You won’t need to watch so closely on offense. Porter has a generational level gift understanding and processing the game. He makes every teammate on the court better. Porter will immediately be one of the best passing big men in the NBA. He makes quick decisions and moves the ball quickly, setting up his teammates. Like Nikola Jokic, he’s the hub of the offense, everything flowing through him. Porter sets good screens and spaces the offense well. He has a smooth, easy shooting stroke, making 36% of his 110 threes and 75% from the line, certainly looking like a player that will hit NBA threes in time. Imagining him in the pick-and-pop with a great guard is just wow. Put him in the Draymond role popping or making quick decisions and playmaking downhill and he could shred defenses with his read and pass abilities.

The skill level is good, but it’s that incredible feel for the game that gets me so excited — especially when you consider Porter did all this as a young 18-year-old that should’ve still been in high school. To already have that sort of feel for the game on both ends at 18 is unfathomable. There are maybe two or three players in the entire draft that wowed me more often. You know how you watch a young player look overwhelmed on a big stage and talk about the game “slowing down” for them? The game is already slow for Jontay Porter. It’s in slow motion, and he’s picking it apart one play at a time.

NBA expectations

We’ll want the ball in Jontay’s hands, with the offense running through him in the high post. Think Al Horford, or Jokic if the passing and offensive ability really hit. Jokic is the dream outcome. Think +3 or better on offense and more useful defense than you’d think, something in the +2 or +3 DBPM range thanks to IQ and quality rim protection and team defense. That’s an All Star, and it’s a superstar if the offense hits the high end. Even if the defense turns out to be below average, Porter can still be a useful offense-first player if the shooting, spacing, and passing are utilized correctly.

Of course, Porter will have to get on an NBA court for that to happen. I’m not privy to the injury reports teams have on Porter. Maybe there are serious red flags about him ever being healthy enough to play professional ball. But torn ACLs are common in the NBA and not debilitating long term the way another leg or foot injury could kill a big man. Naysayers point out Michael’s injury too, along with his two sisters who retired from basketball with injuries. They see an injury history. I see a family pedigree of athleticism and basketball. MPJ’s back injury has literally nothing to do with Jontay tearing an ACL. It’s not relevant.

Best team fits

Before Porter tore the ACL a second time, I had him top five on my draft board. The injury pushed him just outside my lottery. He’s still my favorite big man in the draft, but I’m accounting for some risk there. Boston has three picks between 14 and 22, and I can’t think of a better fit than using one to redshirt Jontay and let him rehab his knee a year watching Al Horford and preparing to step into his role long term. San Antonio is another obvious fit, and they could take him at 19 or at 29. Portland and Brooklyn fit near the end of the first. If Jontay slides into the second, I’d be happy with just about any team taking him. If Porter is as good as I think, you don’t fit him into your system. You build your entire system around him.

TIER III — THE RIM RUNNERS

3. Jaxson Hayes, Texas

Profile

Jaxson Hayes is a prototypical rim runner. He’s long and wiry, with defensive upside to die for. Hayes is a hair under 7-feet (technically lots of hairs, with his Sideshow Bob ‘do) with a big wingspan and long reach. He averaged 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in 23 minutes a game. Hayes posted great efficiency and advanced metrics, a defensive monster and a lob threat that finished almost everything near the rim. He also just turned 19. Two years ago, Hayes played six minutes a game as a junior in high school. Then he grew 10 inches and became a potential lottery pick, the portrait of upside.

Scouting analysis

Few first-round players are more hit or miss. Some games were a complete miss. Hayes is clearly still learning the game. For all his size, he doesn’t always know what to do with it yet and often gets into foul trouble, crippling his impact. Hayes had 4+ fouls in exactly half his games — remember 5 is DQ in college — and played 25 minutes or less in over half of them. You can’t play defense on the bench. There are a lot of really cheap fouls, too, lots of arms coming down on a shooter trying for a block.

Hayes had disappointing Combine measurables. His height and wingspan are good not great for a center, and his strength and weight are poor. He’s quick and changes directions well but has an average leap. That matches what you see on the court, where his athleticism isn’t particularly explosive. He can’t just overwhelm with his size or leap, and the second jump is hit or miss. None of these things are bad, he’s just not a physical freak like Mo Bamba.

On offense, Hayes is going to be an incredible lob threat. He hit 73% of his shots and times his jump well and rolls naturally to the rim. He has amazing hands, catching everything in sight. Hayes grew up playing football and his dad was a tight end, and you see it on lobs. He’ll be a menace on the right team. But there’s almost nothing else there offensively right now. He sets nothing screens because he isn’t strong enough, so NBA teams will go right through them and knock him off his roll. He can dribble once or twice in the post and occasionally lays off a nice pass (only 9 assists all season), but if he’s not rolling to the rim or running in transition, he has no idea what to do on offense and often just stands there. Hayes made 74% of his 100 free throws but the form is a bit odd. According to The Stepien, Hayes made only 16 field goals away from the rim all season. He didn’t hit a single jumper. Of course, he also shot an absurd 85% at the rim, with 82% of them assisted. Hayes scored 90th percentile or better off cuts, in transition, and as the roll man. If he gets the ball near the rim, it’s going in. But there’s not much else on offense.

Defense is where you get excited for Hayes. He simply does things that guys with his body aren’t supposed to be able to do, with quickness, agility, and body control that just shouldn’t be possible at 7-feet. That’s where the flash plays come in. A couple times a game, Hayes does something superhuman. He is agile enough to switch on the perimeter, quick enough to mirror and stay in front of guards. He’s an excellent on-ball defender and has a good chance of erasing you if you try to score on him.

What worries me is the mental side, especially off ball. Hayes is a natural on-ball but it feels like he reacts rather than anticipating in team defense. He should be an incredible help defender, but he’s often a half step slow getting over, and he does a lot of ball watching. He seems overly worried about his own guy and obsessed with blocking shots, trying to swat everything. He gets a lot of them, but he also gets out of position and into foul trouble, and he can be a sucker for pump fakes or lay-offs. His weak positioning means he’s not affecting as many shots as he ought to with his length and shot-blocking ability. Teams are still getting to the rim and attempting twos just as often, whether Hayes is on the court or not. It feels like he has been taught specific concepts and you can almost see him processing the game in real time, and that offsets his natural abilities. An optimist thinks about what that looks like once he learns everything, but I prefer to bet on the mental side I already see. I know Brandon Clarke will be a great defender because he anticipates so well and is always a half step ahead. Hayes is too often a half step behind, and even his length and athleticism can’t always make up that full step difference.

Rebounding is also a problem. Hayes is a really poor rebounder. Part of the problem is that he’s always leaping for blocks, getting himself out of position for the rebound. Part of it is just strength. Hayes gets pushed around on the boards. There are so many times he gets a hand on a rebound but can’t reel it in. He gets overwhelmed physically by stronger players and rarely gets around textbook box-outs, and it doesn’t feel like he fights hard for position. Hayes averaged just 3.3 defensive rebounds per game, with only a 12.5% overall rebounding percentage. That’s really, really bad for a center. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton says Hayes is one of the worst rebounding centers in his database. He gets bodied off so many rebounds. I also have some concerns about his motor and his conditioning. If Hayes is going to play few minutes, I at least want constant energy and hustle, but I didn’t see that, and his minutes were often restricted to short bursts even when he wasn’t in foul trouble.

NBA expectations

Add it all up and you have a super tantalizing, super confusing prospect. It’s easy to get excited about the top-5 percentile outcome for Jaxson Hayes. It looks a lot like Rudy Gobert, a Defensive Player of the Year, and Hayes could be even better defending the perimeter with his incredible natural agility. I’ve seen him in the top-5 on many big boards. I get it.

In the end, I just couldn’t get there. It’s partly because Hayes’s strengths catching lobs and blocking shots fit the rim runner role so clearly, and my study shows that rim runners are very difficult investments, often taking a high pick and years of development with a lower ceiling outcome. Hayes feels like a second-contract guy. Even if he does reach that top-5 percentile outcome, it might not be for the team that drafts him, and it almost certainly won’t be on the valuable rookie contract.

The NBA is a superstar league, but you can’t always take a home run swing. I’m happy to gamble on Hayes late but I don’t think he’ll be there. I definitely see a higher upside here than Claxton or Bitadze if everything hits, but everything is just so many things, and it’s too much for me to bet on.

Best team fits

Hayes needs a young team willing to wait and develop him. Atlanta has been a popular destination, and they could certainly use his lob catching and defensive abilities. Teams like Washington and Charlotte make sense in theory just because they’re essentially blank slates going nowhere fast. Think of a team that uses a rim runner — they can probably work as a fit with Jaxson Hayes. It just might take a few years to get there, if it ever does.

4. Nic Claxton, Georgia

Profile

Nic Claxton is a blank canvas. He’s a long, bouncy dude that can grab and go, and he often played point center for an awful Georgia team that gave him no help at all. Claxton led the SEC in rebounds and blocks. Recruited as a wing, Claxton grew from 6'2" as a high school freshman to 7'0" now at age 20. He’s a wiry player and a springy athlete with all the potential in the world, but it’s going to take some time and a lot of development to get there.

Scouting analysis

Claxton is an NBA athlete with a rim runner body, long and lean. He’s quick with a big leap, and his athleticism pops. He plays with a ton of energy, very active on both ends of the court. Claxton has a ton of defensive potential, the rare player quick enough to guard the perimeter and athletic and big enough to protect the rim. He also shows good ability to mirror the attacker, a key defensive skill for a switchy big man. Claxton looks like a guy that could guard all five NBA positions for stretches if he grows his understanding of the game. The natural defensive ability is there. He guards like a wing — remember, he used to be one — that’s still learning to defend as a big man.

Offensively, Claxton is raw but intriguing. His body and athleticism make him a natural lob threat, completing the rim runner archetype, but there’s more there. Claxton can shoot, at least I think he can. The form is choppy at times but also confident, which makes me feel better. Claxton can really dribble. He’s quite comfortable on the ball, especially for a player with his skill set at his age. He can grab and go off the glass, and he often initiated the offense for a terrible Bulldogs team that played him out of position and didn’t give him any guard help. I’m intrigued to see what Claxton can do in a real offense. The shooting numbers will improve when he gets better looks, and the offensive impact will be better when he’s playing a more natural center role.

Rim runners are defined by their limitations. Claxton feels like he could be a rim runner plus… a rim runner plus defensive versatility and switchability, plus some handle and creation, plus potential shooting and spacing.

NBA expectations

Claxton is a project. He’s going to spend his rookie season in the G League, and the mental part of the game is a long ways away. His body isn’t ready either. What does he look like if he hits? Think JaVale McGee with a shot. Take your typical rim runner and add a three and a more versatile defensive package, maybe a younger Tyson Chandler with a modern offensive game. That’s what you’re hoping Claxton turns into. Right now, Claxton is Anthony Randolph, for better and for worse. Let’s hope for more of the better.

Best team fits

There’s not really a best fit for Claxton since he’s going to take a few years and NBA teams turn over so often. He should go to a team that can afford to use a pick on a developmental project because the team is young anyway and/or in need of a home run swing. Atlanta could make sense at 17. Cleveland or Brooklyn could take a swing late in the first. Milwaukee would be intriguing if Claxton fell to 30. There aren’t a ton of great first-round fits because most of the teams picking late aren’t in a position to wait on Claxton. Many of the teams at the top of the second make sense if he falls that far.

TIER IV — THE ENIGMA

5. Bol Bol, Oregon

Profile

Bol Bol is probably the most unique player in the draft, and that’s saying something in a draft with Zion Williamson. Manute Bol’s kid has his father’s body, standing 7'2" at only 208 pounds with a ridiculous 9'8" standing reach, meaning he can stand flat-footed and graze the rim with his fingertips. Add to that the shooting touch of an angel and this is a basketball unicorn in the truest sense. The best version of Bol Bol could break the NBA — a one-man zone that can swat shots on one end, then pull up from 30 on the other. Think Kevin Durant, but taller.

Scouting analysis

Okay, now welcome back to planet earth, where there is no taller Kevin Durant. Bol Bol is a unicorn, and unicorns aren’t real. I’m not sure Bol is a real NBA player either. Bol played only a month of college basketball before missing the rest of the season with a Navicular fracture in his foot. Hey, remember that one NBA big man with the foot or leg injury that never came back to bother him throughout his career? Me neither. Super tall dudes with foot injuries are the horror stories in the NBA annals.

And the thing is, I didn’t believe in Bol even before the injury. I just don’t believe he can stay on an NBA court. Like his father, Bol’s lanky frame is not going to put on much weight or strength. He has a super high center of gravity and gets completely pushed around in the post and on the boards, and he his poor hips and a really difficult time changing directions. He’s not strong enough or quick enough to get by a screen or guard on the perimeter either, so his one defensive function is being super tall in the paint and affecting shots.

Bol can dribble and, boy, can he shoot. He made 52% of his 25 threes, and despite the small sample, the shot definitely seems real. But again, that jumper feels like his one go-to skill. Bol is over reliant on the jumper and ends up shooting a fadeaway a lot because he has a slow release and isn’t physical so he constantly gets pushed off his spot. Bol is also a super slow decision maker and his body language often looks lazy or disinterested. I’ve seen coaches and scouts question how much he wants to play basketball, and he has a reputation of skipping practices and an inconstant motor.

NBA expectations

It’s fun to dream about Bol Bol because we’ve all created Bol Bol on NBA 2K. You know, when you think it’d be funny to give your created player max height with minimum weight and strength plus Stephen Curry’s shot? Congratulations, you just made up Bol Bol. Only it doesn’t work in real life.

I think Bol is African Zhou Qi, a Rockets player I love watching at NBA Summer League, another giant prospect that can hit threes. But while I love Zhou, I also only get to watch him at Summer League. His body doesn’t hold up so he’s constantly hurt, and he strikes me as sort of a ginormous wing. Bol is supposed to be this elite defender but guys are going to drive it into him and either hurt him, get him in foul trouble, or posterize him. Bol’s top 0.01% outcome is Rudy Gobert with a 3. His better comps are Thon Maker, Zhou Qi, Mo Bamba, John Jeanne, and Isaiah Austin, none of which has made an NBA impact, and two of whom couldn’t play in the NBA because their bodies were so ginormous they literally had a genetic disorder. Bodies like this aren’t made to hold up to the rigors of an NBA season. They just aren’t.

Bol has an awesome statistical profile but did it in nine non-conference games. Maybe he’ll somehow stay healthy and maybe he’ll add enough strength to stay on the court and maybe that profile is the real deal. If it is, I’ll just have to be wrong. I’m out.

Best team fits

There’s been talk of Bol Bol in the lottery. Even in a weak draft, I can’t get even close. I wouldn’t take him in the first at all with two exceptions: one is a very late first for a team like Cleveland with nothing to lose and a home run swing. The other is Milwaukee, where Bol could take the Brook Lopez role, dropping to rim protection on defense and poppping 35-foot jumpers on offense. That was a new role that turned BroLo from a journeyman into a star this year, and if Bol has any chance of succeeding in the NBA, that’s what it will look like.

TIER V — THE SECOND ROUND TARGETS

6. Bruno Fernando, Maryland

Profile

I really like Bruno Fernando. He’s super talented. He’s polished, with good footwork and a nice array of post moves. He has surprising passing ability out of the post and looks like he could develop a useful shot. He’s stout in defense and blocks some shots. In the 90s, I honestly think Bruno Fernando is a lottery pick. There’s just one problem: it’s 2019, and centers are different now.

Scouting analysis

Fernando feels like bargain bin Deandre Ayton. I wondered all year why Ayton supporters weren’t more into Fernando. I was never in on Ayton, but his talent is undeniable. So is Bruno Fernando’s. He’s a good rebounder and an improving passer. He wasn’t asked to shoot much but looks comfortable from 15 or 20 feet, so it’s reasonable to expect him to hit threes before long. He calls for the ball in the post and commands double team or punishes defenses that don’t send help. That all sounds like Ayton, right? Just Ayton is a few inches bigger and a bit better at all those things, a little more natural with more touch, though I do think Fernando has a better feel for the game.

Fernando makes resounding blocks at times but his post defense is disappointing and he gets out of position in space in team defense. I’m not sure Fernando will be playable defensively, which severely limits his NBA upside. I expect him to fall into the low end of the Offense-First centers bucket, and that’s the problem at the end of the day.

NBA expectations

Fernando is good and obviously very talented. I just can’t find a great role for him in the modern NBA, outside of playing 20 backup center minutes. That’s useful enough, more so in the regular season, but it’s not a skill I can spend a first-round pick on.

7. Daniel Gafford, Arkansas

Profile

Gafford nearly came out in last year’s draft and looked like a lottery pick much of the year. Instead he returned to school and didn’t really get any worse; he just also didn’t get much better. Now Gafford is a year older and the same old rim runner he was a year ago, without much additional skill. He went back to improve his stock, didn’t really improve at anything, and fell to the second round in a much worse draft.

Scouting analysis

The rim runner skills are there — he’s a stud athlete with good size and huge leaping ability. He’s going to block shots and and he’s going to catch lobs, but there’s little else there. Gafford hit 79% of his shots at the rim this year but was 34% on short-mid twos and made only seven shots all season outside 10 feet. He doesn’t move his feet well in the post or on defense, and his size is good but doesn’t feel imposing. Gafford is simply a cookie cutter rim runner.

NBA expectations

If you need an athletic 6'11" dude to run the court, he’s your guy. There just may not be much else there. Still, he’s readier with those skills than Jaxson Hayes or Nic Claxton and might be a better value play late in the second than one of those guys in the top 20.

TIER VI — POST-DRAFT DART THROWS

Naz Reid, LSU

Sometimes you tune into a game and struggle to figure out which prospect you’re supposed to be watching. That’s never the case with Naz Reid. He leaps off the screen, a physically imposing specimen with all the tools. Reid is comfortable shooting behind the arc and an excellent passer, and he has strength that swallows opponents in the post at times. Physically, Reid is a bit smaller than you’d like at 6'9" and he’s not quick on his feet. He has a high center of gravity and doesn’t get into a crouch or move well on defense.

The mental part of Reid’s game is what kills me. I hate his motor and IQ, or lack thereof. He plays with fake energy, “hustling” when it makes him look good, floating in and out of games. I don’t see natural feel or understanding of the game; rather Naz can be a black hole, looking lazy or selfish. He has poor body language and his teammates look exasperated when he makes mental mistakes so I know I’m not alone. Reid had a terrible Combine too, one of the worst athletes measured.

There is a metric ton of natural talent here, but I want nothing to do with it. Naz reminds me of Boogie Lite, with all the offensive talent and all the frustrations multiplied further. He’ll never be even average defensively at center, so his upside is a bench four in the mold of Julius Randle. Not interested. I’d rather pick up UCLA’s Moses Brown undrafted.

Tacko Fall, Central Florida

You remember Tacko Fall as the 7'7" giant that looked set to break into a million pieces against Zion Williamson in the NCAA tournament. I don’t buy it. Fall doesn’t have the athleticism or agility to do more on defense than stand by the rim and protect it, and he doesn’t have an offensive role either. He can’t run or jump, can’t change directions or move laterally, pretty much can’t do anything even remotely NBA-athletic. Just being ginormous isn’t enough. Tacko Fall is an extraordinary human being but a gimmick basketball player. ■

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow for plenty more NBA Draft content to come. If you’ve missed anything, here are my profiles of the four best players in the 2019 draft…

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