Brandon Clarke’s defense alone is worth a top-5 draft pick

Clarke’s incredible combination of athleticism, defense, and natural feel for the game give him superstar upside — even if he doesn’t fit the usual mold of a top-5 pick

ONE YEAR AGO, FEW BASKETBALL FANS HAD EVEN HEARD OF BRANDON CLARKE. Clarke was not a major recruiting target and began his career at San Jose State, where he started only three times as a freshman for a terrible 9–22 team. The following season Clarke moved into a starting role. The Spartans still finished below .500 but Clarke put up 17 points, 9 boards, and almost 4 stocks (steals + blocks) a game. That summer he decided to transfer and sat out all last season, practicing each day against Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie as he watched his new Gonzaga teammates lock up a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament before a disappointing early exit.

This year, Brandon Clarke finally got his turn on the big stage, and he did not disappoint. Clarke was arguably the second best player in college basketball this year, and by the numbers, he was closer to Zion Williamson than the rest of the field. Clarke matched the 17 and 9 he put up at San Jose State, adding 4.4 stocks a game and hitting an absurd 69% of his shots. He literally blocked more shots than he missed this season. Clarke improved his shooting and finished the year with insane efficiency metrics, including 70% true shooting. He blocked over 11% of opponent twos — that’s better than 1-in-9 for the entire season. If you need a comparison, Zion Williamson put up 23 and 9 with 3.9 stocks a game, a 6% block rate, and 70% true shooting. Zion had one of the greatest college seasons of all time, and Clarke nearly matched him.

Of course, the comparisons between Zion and Clarke stop there. Zion Williamson is a Happy Meal under 300 pounds and an athletic freak sent from outer space to dominate the NBA, and he won’t even turn 19 until after the draft. Clarke is 6'8" with a neutral wingspan, weighing in barely over 200 pounds, and he’ll turn 23 in a few months. Clarke is a full four-year college experience older than Zion Williamson.

But Brandon Clarke doesn’t have to be Zion to be a great top-5 draft pick. There’s only one Zion after all. Clarke just needs to be better than everyone else. And he very well might be.

If you tuned in to any Gonzaga game this season, you noticed Clarke. He leaps off the screen and was by far my favorite player to scout this season. I just couldn’t stop watching Clarke. He’s a bundle of energy, constantly in motion, always a half-step ahead on both ends with elite instincts and feel for the game. Clarke is constantly making plays and looks like the perfect 4th or 5th starter on an NBA team, a guy who does all the little things on a title team.

I watched around 15 Gonzaga games this year, plus some old footage from his time at San Jose State, so let’s take all that game film and put together a scouting report on Clarke. We’ll start with the offense, then get to the good stuff on defense before wrapping up with a look at Clarke’s NBA projection and why I think he’s such an outstanding prospect — maybe even the #2 prospect in the entire draft class.

Offensive instincts and feel for the game

Let’s start with Clarke’s offense, the worse half of his game. But worse doesn’t necessarily mean bad, and I think there’s a lot more to work with here than most are giving Clarke credit for. Clarke’s strongest abilities on offense are the same two he has on defense — elite athleticism and out-of-this-world instincts and IQ. Those two combined just give him such a leg up on so many others players he shares the court with.

Clarke has such a natural feel for the game. He is constantly in motion, always putting himself into good position. Sometimes that means getting into quick interior position and knowing how to get a good seal in the post. Other times it means diving to the rim off a screen or getting to the right position in semi-transition. Clarke absolutely crushed Baylor’s vaunted 2–3 zone in the NCAA tournament, constantly positioning himself in weak spots in the zone and finding an endless supply of easy buckets with great natural off-ball movement into space. He was a one-man wrecking machine on both ends. I also noticed how much better Clarke was sharing the court with Killian Tillie, a shooter, than with Rui Hachimura, who likes to play close to the basket. Clarke will benefit greatly from NBA spacing, with all the more room to slide around and get into dangerous scoring positions on offense.

If Clarke can add some strength to become a real screen threat, he could be a devastating roll guy off the pick-and-roll. The 6'8" is irrelevant there. Clarke can easily get up to finish anything within a mile of the rim, and though he may not be able to screen the biggest centers effectively, he’s going to fly past them with his quickness and agility. He punished bigger, slower centers repeatedly in conference play.

Clarke is a quick decision maker, trusting his reads appropriately. He takes a lot of shots early in the shot clock, which might normally be a concern, but in Clarke’s case it’s a recognition of a good shot when he sees one, making the defense pay. Remember, this guy shot 71% on twos and blocked more shots than he missed this year. We can trust that Clarke knows a good shot when he sees one.

Clarke is constantly in motion, and he’s going to run defenders ragged in the NBA. He’ll pounce if the defense falls asleep for even a second, and he’ll be all the more devastating if he has a smart point guard to get him the ball in advantageous positions, like Josh Perkins did at Gonzaga. Clarke does a great job making himself available on dives, always ready for the ball and establishing good post position. That off-ball movement also helps provide spacing for his teammates and was a huge factor in Rui Hachimura’s big offensive season.

Clarke’s good decision making comse out in his passing, too. He punishes the occasional double team, and he’s a nice high-low passer with quality interior-passing ability. He makes quick reads and has an innate ability to recognize what the defense is giving him, and he knows how to take it or put his teammates in position to do the same.

Clarke is also a major threat in transition. You’re going to see a lot of Pascal Siakam comparisons for Clarke and probably a lot of other guys until we recognize what a unique and great player Siakam is. Unless both of his arms grow four inches, Clarke is not Siakam, whose wingspan is seven inches longer. That plus 20 pounds makes Siakam a totally different defender. But on offense, especially in transition, the comparison is apt. Did you see how Siakam killed the Warriors in transition in Game 1 of the Finals? Clarke has the same athleticism and decision-making strengths and will be similarly devastating making quick reads in transition. Like Siakam, he can grab and go off a defensive rebound, finishing in space. In Gonzaga’s toughest conference game at St. Mary’s, Clarke twice grabbed a defensive board and drove the full length of the court through the defense to finish, taking over on the the road to knock out the Gaels.

Clarke is a terrific rebounder. Again, instincts and athleticism to the rescue. He just has impeccable timing. He grabs so many rebounds at their peak, where no one else can get them. He’s an especially devastating offensive rebounder, vacuuming up almost 14% of his team’s misses. Clarke had at least three offensive rebounds in 10 of Gonzaga’s final 11 games. That’s almost as good as a steal or a block, an extra possession for the offense — and it’s often even better since that extra possession begins with the ball in the hands of your high IQ superfreak athlete right by the basket.

Shooting limitations

So that’s a lot of good news on Clarke’s offense. What are his limitations?

The most obvious limitation, of course, is his shot. Isn’t that the case with just about every prospect? Clarke made only six threes in his collegiate career, an irrelevant 25% on 24 attempts. He took a real step forward at the line this year, improving from 57% free throws at San Jose State to 69% at the line with Gonzaga. Clarke’s shot was the biggest improvement to his game in his year away. He totally remade an ugly shot and actually has a pretty nice shooting form now. The free throw stroke looks solid, and Clarke seems confident in his pull-up jumper, even if he doesn’t go to it that often. Sometimes we can see NBA shooting ability in a player’s free throw percentage or in his confidence shooting, so both of those are good signs, though 69% is still far from great. Clarke isn’t going to be a great shooter. But he only needs to be a decent one.

Clarke’s mid-range jumper was inconsistent. The jumper from 5-to-12 feet was often a bit strong, frequently off the back rim with a little too much jump from his athleticism that simply can’t help itself sometimes. Nearer the basket, Clarke’s touch is outstanding. He’s an outstanding finisher — again, he missed only 106-of-359 shots this season — and that great touch gives another reason for hope on the shot developing further. We look for work ethic in players because it portends improvement. We already know Clarke has taken a huge leap forward reworking his shot. Is it really so bad that he’s a few years older if we’ve also seen how much he’s improved his game in those extra years? Maybe he’s just done some of his future team’s work in advance.

Limited with the ball in his hands

More than the shot, I’m a bit concerned about what happens when the ball is in Clarke’s hands too long. Clarke can dribble in space with that grab-and-go ability, but his loose dribble costs him in the more congested half-court game, and it cost the team dearly in their final loss against Texas Tech in the tournament, where Clarke had six turnovers. I’m not sure those were all his fault, but six turnovers are six turnovers, and Clarke simply isn’t as good when the offense comes to a halt and he has to create something on his own. He has a go-to spin move that looks delightful at first until you realize it’s literally his only post-up move, and once teams started taking that away, he really struggled to do much with the ball in his hands.

That would be a bigger concern if there was any reason to believe teams will use Clarke like that in the NBA, but there isn’t. That’s really not the point of Brandon Clarke. Teams aren’t going to dump the ball into the post and ask him to score, and they’re not going to put the ball in his hands at the top of the key and have him run pick-and-roll. They’re also not going to plop him in the corner and ask him to shoot open corner threes. There are concerns with some of Clarke’s offensive strengths, and they’re merited, but they’re also kind of missing the point.

Clarke’s appropriate role in an NBA offense will have little to do with hitting open jumpers and standing with the ball on his hands. His offensive value comes off the ball, sprinting out in transition, constantly moving, setting screens and re-screening or diving to the rim, getting into space and confusing the defense. I’d love it if Clarke could add a three eventually, but I also want Clarke playing inside the arc. What he lacks in shooting gravity, he’ll add in vertical gravity with his ability to dive to the rim and his offensive rebounding. I’m not sure Clarke even needs his number called. On a good team, he’s going to score 12 or 14 points just naturally in the flow of a game, like how Shawn Marion used to do for the Suns.

Clarke wasn’t just the best defensive player on Gonzaga. He was their best offensive player too, and I ultimately felt Mark Few’s failure to recognize Clarke’s value is what cost his team a title. Most scouting reports view Clarke as a hopeful neutral on offense, if he can just find a decent shot. I think he’s a positive already, even before the shot. Some smart team will put Clarke into position to do the things he does best on offense, and he is devastatingly good at those things.

Brandon Clarke is a positive offensive player. But he’s an elite defender.

Elite game-changing defense

We won’t spend as much space talking about Brandon Clarke’s defense, but that’s only because it’s so outrageously good that it honestly doesn’t need a ton of extra analysis. Just watch a Gonzaga game, literally any of them, and you’ll see for yourself.

The first thing you’ll see is Clarke literally leaping off the screen. He is constantly creating basketball events. This year Clarke had 114 offensive rebounds, 117 blocks, and 43 steals. That’s 274 extra possessions Brandon Clarke earned for Gonzaga, an incredible 7.4 bonus possessions per game. And those aren’t just any old possession; they’re some of the most valuable possessions in basketball, since even average teams score at an elite rate on offensive rebounds or turnover-induced possessions. For many teams, that’s something in the range of 1.3 or 1.4 points per possession. That means Brandon Clarke’s event creation is single-handedly creating an extra 10 points for his team every single game. Ten free points!

Clarke’s instincts and feel for the game are even more valuable on defense. His leaping ability is terrific. Clarke is super bouncy, both off one or two feet, and he has a quick, elite second jump. He also does a great job going straight up on defense, relying on his leaping ability and transcendent timing to affect shots and block them rather than reaching and risking the foul. In Clarke’s Combine interview, he said as much himself, attributing his shot-blocking to timing more than athleticism — and that’s saying something for a guy who just measured as one of the best athletes at the combine at any position.

Clarke’s timing is useful for more than just shot blocking. He’s an incredible help defender, with an innate ability to help off his man at just the right second and still impact the player with the ball. We mostly talk about spacing on offense, but Clarke spaces the defense. His feet are constantly moving, analyzing and re-analzying the play, getting into just the right position so he can cover the maximum amount of the court. Clarke’s quickness and instincts off the ball create all sorts of problems for the opponent. He’s like a free safety that covers so much ground and takes away entire swaths of the court. He can guard the perimeter and get back to the rim, and heaven help you if you’re trying to score on Clarke in transition. Sorry for this, Yves Pons.

Clarke is an endless conjunction of energy, instincts, and feel on defense. Again, the combination of instincts and athleticism is absolutely deadly. For some elite athletes like Jordan Bone, you mostly see the athleticism in drills. Clarke’s athleticism pops throughout the game. He blocks shots both on the ball and in help defense. Another thing you’ll notice about the blocks — rather than swatting the ball into the crowd for a highlight, Clarke’s blocks often stay in bounds, deflected to teammates for run-outs on the other end.

Clarke is a fine defender in the post, but he’s awesome off the ball. He’s not going to be the guy you want guarding the Joel Embiids of the world because he just doesn’t have the size or the strength to match up, but he’ll be able to guard about 425 of the 450 guys in the NBA next season. You can count on one or two hands the number of NBA defenders that can effectively guard one-to-five. Brandon Clarke will join that list. He might be more of a one-to-4.5 defender, but so are the rest of those guys, for the most part. Look at what Draymond Green does night after night in the playoffs, using his timing and instincts to disrupt plays on defense. Clarke is not Green — no one is — but imagine adding elite athleticism to similar instincts and timing, and that’s the sort of defensive impact Brandon Clarke could have in the NBA. We’re talking about Defensive Player of the Year upside.

Clarke is super switchable and will be able to get out on the perimeter and defend like a wing. His lack of size in a bit is a detriment in some ways, but it also gives him a lower center of gravity and stance to be able to slide around the perimeter and hang with quicker, smaller players in a way that most defenders can’t. For Clarke, his size can sometimes be an advantage just as much as a disadvantage. His athleticism helps him just as much laterally against perimeter players as it helps him vertically at the rim.

Clarke’s defense really stood out during Gonzaga’s tournament run. Against Florida State, with a significant size disadvantage and his athletic advantage muted, I was so impressed with Clarke’s ability to move his feet and stay in proper defensive position. He was constantly switching, sliding, recovering, blocking guys from behind, and dominating on the boards against a big, physical team. Clarke’s rebounding and physicality impressed throughout the tournament. In three games against Baylor, FSU, and Texas Tech, he averaged 23 points, 11 boards, 3 assists, and 5 stocks on 67% shooting. That’s elite Zion-level production in the biggest games of the season. In the Elite 8, Clarke struggled with turnovers but was terrific on defense, locking up Tech star Jarrett Culver much of the game.

Think about that — Jarrett Culver is a top-5 pick that will play on the wing in the NBA, and Clarke mostly shut him down without any real help. This is an elite rim protector and a guy that can use his strength, quickness, and athleticism to guard the game’s best wings. That’s incredible defensive value and versatility, the sort of defense that helps any NBA team.

Clarke’s up-and-down Combine

Let’s talk briefly about the Combine.

I admit I was one of the many that panicked at first on Clarke’s measurements. He came in at 6'8" height with a disappointing 6'8" wingspan and 8'6" standing reach, weighing in at only 207 pounds. There’s no way around it: that’s the size of an NBA wing, not a big. If you’re looking for a body comp for Clarke, think Jake Layman, Kevin Huerter, Terrance Ferguson, Danny Green, or DeMar DeRozan. Those dudes are wings, and if anything, they’re closer to being full-time twos than threes. That size disadvantage feels like a serious problem for a guy some want to play small-ball center.

And while it’s true that there’s not a great history of NBA big men with this size disadvantage, there’s also little history of NBA bigs with Clarke’s off-the-charts athleticism. For what he lacks in size, Clarke more than makes up for with incredible measurables. He put up a 34" standing vertical and a 40.5" max vert, number one among small forwards (where he was mistakenly grouped) and among the best Combine players. He was also among the very best in lane agility and shuttle run, showing off his burst, quickness, and change-of-direction ability.

Big men aren’t supposed to be this size, but they’re not supposed to be this explosive of an athlete either. Jackson Hoy has an outstanding size predictor tool, which analyzes a player’s statistics and projects their size accordingly. His tool thinks Brandon Clarke is 6'11", and that’s because Clarke plays like it. It’s the biggest difference of any player in his database. Size is relative, and Clarke’s jumping ability and innate timing make up for the few inches he’s lacking.

Clarke had a really impressive Combine interview. He shows a great grasp of his own strengths and weaknesses. Clarke says he’s been shooting from NBA range all season and last year while he sat out, working hard on his shot. He knows his spin move needs work along with his handle, and he says his strength is his defense and his ability to guard one-to-four and some five in the NBA. And he’s right.

So what is Brandon Clarke in the NBA?

That’s the big question really. What is Clarke? Everyone loves a good player comp, and sometimes it’s scary when we can’t find one. But sometimes what makes players great is their unique set of skills and abilities.

Clarke is not Pascal Siakam, though that will be a popular comp. Siakam is longer and stronger and has a more polished offensive game, while Clarke is more explosive. Maybe Clarke is Andre Roberson with touch? Maybe Jerami Grant with offensive instincts? It’s easy to picture Clarke playing useful minutes for the Warriors — think some combination of Alfonzo McKinnie and Jordan Bell. None of those names sound particularly exciting on their own, but when you consider you’re taking a player that’s very good at a few things and improving their glaring weakness, that’s a pretty valuable NBA chip.

I searched the Basketball Reference database for a player with the sort of value I expect Clarke to have. I looked for players 6'9" or shorter with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus 2.5 or better, an Offensive Box Plus-Minus under 1, and a block rate over 4%. We’re looking for elite defenders who block a lot of shots despite a lack of size and who are valuable NBA players despite not making big offensive contributions.

The names that came up make a lot of sense: Ben Wallace, Bo Outlaw, Josh Smith, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, James Johnson, Jordan Bell, and Tyrus Thomas. Those are some of the game’s all-time elite defenders, among the best ever outside the center position. They’re defensive jackknives that diced up opposing offenses despite their lack of size, instead relying on generational athleticism and incredible timing and instincts, the same sort of skill set Clarke seems to have. Outlaw, Smith, and others on this list were All-Star caliber players on the basis of their defense alone, if the advanced numbers are to be believed. Ben Wallace might be the greatest defender ever.

And sure, there’s some obvious selection bias here. Of course we found great defenders — we searched for them after all, since anyone with 2.5-DBPM season had a great year defensively. There’s one other problem — even these smaller players are still all bigger than Clarke when you factor in wingspan. Every player on that list has a wingspan of at least 7-feet except Jordan Bell, and he’s at 6'11". Clarke, remember, measures just 6'8". The size remains a concern; it’s just not a death knell, especially in an increasingly smaller NBA.

If you drop the defensive parameters a bit and add in offensive rebounding prowess, Taj Gibson and 80s defensive great Dan Roundfield come up as nice comps. Emphasize steals a bit more with the blocks and you get names like Andre Roberson and Shane Battier. Every one of these players are guys that constantly showed up on winning teams despite not being a big-time scorer or offensive threat. And they did it because defense really matters, and their defense changed the game. It helped their teams win.

SO WHAT SORT OF PLAYER SHOULD BRANDON CLARK BE IN THE NBA? He should be Brandon Clarke, exactly what he was in college. He should play like a center on offense, setting screens and diving to the rim, running in transition and beating opponents athletically. On defense he’s a four, without the girth to guard the biggest centers, more dangerous as a help defender and a switch guy on the perimeter. Most of those elite defenders we just listed played the four, and it worked out just fine for them. Ideally Clarke will play next to one of the increasing number of NBA centers with shooting ability. Think about pairing him with someone like Karl-Anthony Towns or Nikola Jokic or LaMarcus Aldridge. Those guys will provide the shot gravity and spacing that Clarke lacks, and he’ll feast in the space they leave him in the paint while cleaning up for them defensively on the other end.

That Clarke projects to a lower-usage when-the-ball-comes-to-him offense is actually a plus, considering how efficient he is with his touches and how much he adds off the ball. Some of the great fours in NBA history were great because they were perfect complimentary guys, doing the little things that help a team win. Think Dennis Rodman, Draymond Green, Horace Grant, Robert Horry, Dave DeBusschere. These guys have 22 championships between them because they were great at the things their teammates lacked, freeing those teammates up to do the things they were great at, too. That’s the sort of player Brandon Clarke could become in the NBA. He could be great.

If Brandon Clarke were two inches taller or two years younger, he might have been the #2 prospect in the 2019 draft.

He just might be anyway.

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.