Which 0–2 NFL Team Will Still Make the Playoffs?

Forget the Dolphins, but could the Broncos, Panthers, or Jaguars turn things around and make a playoff run? Plus, Week 3 picks!

TWELVE PERCENT! Just 12% of NFL teams that start 0–2 rebound to make the playoffs. That’s one in every eight teams. It’s not great, but it’s a lot better than 0%. We tend to leave 0–2 teams for dead, but 12% means one of them should flip the script and make the playoffs almost every year.

Sure enough, last year the Texans and Seahawks started 0–2 but made the playoffs anyway, just like I predicted. In 2017, the Saints rebounded from 0–2 to become a Super Bowl favorite (I picked the 0–16 Browns… oops?). In 2016, Miami turned 0–2 into a playoff run. Seattle and Houston did it in 2015 too, and Indianapolis and Carolina did it the two years before that. That’s six straight seasons at least one 0–2 team has made the playoffs.

There are nine 0–2 teams, 10 if you count the 0–1–1 Cardinals. History and math tell us one of these teams will make the playoffs. But how? Is there a key player that could help turn things around? Does the schedule open up going forward? Do they play in an easy division or in the inferior AFC? Making the playoffs after an 0–2 start is not about what is but what could be…

NOT EVEN A SNOWBALL’S CHANCE

10. Miami Dolphins

I’m not even going to dignify this team with a comment.

9. New York Jets

Sam Darnold is out for a month with a kissing disease, and now his backup is out for the season so Luke Falk is a starting NFL quarterback. The Jets are also missing Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley at the heart of the D. Up next for New York: the Patriots, Eagles, Cowboys, and Pats again. The Jets season might already be over.

THE NFC EAST IS TOO TOUGH

8. Washington Haskins

Washington is one of the least awful teams on this list, and they pushed the Eagles and Cowboys for a half each to start the season. Neither loss is terrible, but it puts Washington in an 0–2 division hole, and there might be no division with two stronger teams. The NFC is loaded, so Washington probably needs 10 wins to make the playoffs. Can they go 10–4 with games against the Pats, Eagles, Cowboys, and entire NFC North remaining?

7. New York Giants

The Giants are unquestionably worse than Washington. But the early switch to Daniel Jones at least provides an avenue to improvement. Jones was the best QB in the preseason, for whatever that’s worth, and New York has winnable games against the Bucs and Skins next. This team always runs in streaks, and if Jones and Saquon Barkley light it up, there’s a path to 5–3 entering a home Monday night game against Dallas that could flip the season. New York’s D is awful, and there’s a solid chance Daniel Jones will be too, but it’s the upside of the unknown that at least gives them a chance.

NOT ACTUALLY 0–2

6. Arizona Cardinals

I’m starting to believe in Kyler and Kliff the way this team is moving the ball on offense. Again, like with Daniel Jones, there is upside in the unknown, plus Arizona will get better in a month once they get their corners back. The Cards could also benefit from their Week 1 tie, which counts effectively as not-a-loss if they get to 9–6–1, beating out 9–7 teams for a wildcard berth. That’s one less win than other NFC teams need, and they’ll benefit from Cam Newton and Drew Brees injuries. But it’s still a lot to ask this young team in an otherwise-undefeated division, and they don’t count anyway at 0–1–1.

HOPE FOR AFC NORTH CHAOS

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers traded next year’s pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick, signaling their belief in Mason Rudolph and this year’s team. They might believe, but I don’t. Rudolph will have to learn on the fly against the 49ers, Ravens, and Chargers over the next month, so even getting to 3–3 will be tough. Pittsburgh’s has an easy schedule down the stretch, hoping for divisional chaos and a 9-win playoff berth. But I didn’t like this team with Big Ben, and I like them much less without him. They’re worse at QB, RB, and WR than last year’s team that missed the playoffs, and the defense isn’t good. It’s really just betting on black and gold laundry at this point.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have a similar case as the Steelers — but a better one. They too will hope for divisional chaos, but their schedule is even softer than Pittsburgh’s since they get the Jaguars and Raiders instead of the Colts and Chargers. They also have only five true road games left, since one “road” game is in London and another is a JV game in Miami. Zac Taylor has this offense moving the ball, and Andy Dalton looks better than you think in his system, plus he’ll get A.J. Green back soon. Like Washington, Cincinnati is more mediocre than bad. They could hang around more than you think.

SUPER BOWL 50 WAS A LONG TIME AGO

3. Denver Broncos

I believed in Denver preseason, but they have the most disappointing 0–2 record, blowing winnable games against the Raiders and Bears. The Broncos defense remains super talented, and they should figure it out under Vic Fangio soon enough, but Joe Flacco looks donezo and the schedule is brutal. Denver will be a touchdown dog in three of their next five, and they could be an underdog in eight straight games in the middle of the season. I still like this team to get to 7 or 8 wins, but they’re going to need to catch a lot of bounces to get to the playoffs, and they just got screwed out of a big one Sunday.

2. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers go as Cam Newton goes, and Newton’s going in the wrong direction. Carolina doesn’t trust Cam to run with the ball, and now the foot injury is bothering him again. The Panthers are already 0–2 at home and only play one home game the next six weeks, so they’re already in a massive hole. The Brees injury helps, and Carolina is only one game back in a suddenly winnable NFC South. But the Brees injury might actually hurt them, since Carolina doesn’t get to face New Orleans without him and instead faces the Saints twice down the stretch desperate for a win. This team can always flip the switch, but they face a pretty brutal road schedule and Cam just doesn’t look up for it. Is this the end for him or Ron Rivera?

IN MINSHEW WE TRUST

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

We talked ourselves into the Jags as this year’s worst-to-first division winner, and here we are picking them again. It’s easy to count the Jaguars out because of the Nick Foles injury, but Gardner Minshew has actually played pretty well so far. He’s completed 78% of his passes with a 112 QB rating, 3 TDs, and only 1 interception, including what might have been a game-tying or winning TD in the final minute on the road against a good Houston team.

Jacksonville has the least depressing 0–2 record. Even with Foles, it was reasonable to expect an 0–2 start against the Chiefs and Texans, the two toughest games on the schedule. It all gets easier from here. The Jags play the Panthers and Saints in the next month, so they’ll benefit from the Cam and Brees injuries, and don’t forget the two Colts games without Andrew Luck. There are 10 unbeaten teams through two weeks. The Jaguars don’t face any of them the rest of the way, and they get four games against this 0–2 list.

Is Gardner Minshew really a worse option than Nick Foles? He’s making smart passes, managing the game, and making plays with his feet. He’s a heck of a lot better than Blake Bortles, and this defense is still good enough to win games on their own if Minshew can just keep the engine running smoothly. The Jalen Ramsey and Doug Marrone thing could derail the season — but it could also galvanize the team to a big turnaround.

We’re diving in the deep end and doubling down on Gardner Minshew II and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Heaven help us.

WEEK 3 PICKS

Jacksonville +1.5 vs Tennessee (Thursday night)

The Titans have won four straight and six of seven in this rivalry, but I believe in Gardner Minshew II.

Cincinnati +6 at Buffalo

I’m just not quite ready to make Josh Allen a touchdown favorite against a decent team, and Zac Taylor has the Bengals moving the ball pretty well.

Detroit +7 at Philadelphia

In their last 58 games, Detroit has only lost 11 games by more than a TD. Philly is super banged up and has a big game coming Thursday, so they may do just enough to get by here. Don’t rule out the Lions for an upset special.

Miami +22.5 at Dallas New York Jets +23 at New England

History failed us last week, but Miami was only down 16–0 with 18 minutes left before the bottom fell out. Still, 17+ point underdogs are 10–3 against the spread this century, and they’re 5–0 covering as more than a 20-point dog. History is history. Let’s do this, Josh Rosen and Luke Falk.

Atlanta +2 at Indianapolis

These are two of the teams I am least certain about. I expect this game to be close, so I’ll take Matt Ryan over Jacoby Brissett down the stretch.

Denver +8 at Green Bay

The Packers O has only played one good quarter. Denver has the pass rush and corners to give Aaron Rodgers some trouble. Vic Fangio has always done well against ARod, and Green Bay’s 2–0 by 8 combined points and could be 0–2.

Arizona +3 vs Carolina

Everyone is talking about the blown Cardinals red zone opportunities that turned into field goals last week, but they’re missing the other part: since the start of the 4th quarter vs Detroit, Arizona’s been in the red zone 8 times.

New York Giants +6.5 at Tampa Bay

The Bucs are not TD favorites against anyone. They’ve only been favored by this much once since 2012. Let’s see what Daniel Jones is made of.

Seattle -4 vs New Orleans

Is it Teddy Bridgewater or Taysom Hill? It ain’t Drew Brees, and the Saints have the league’s worst run defense against its run-heaviest team.

Houston +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

I have no idea if either of these teams is good. They feel even, and the Chargers have no home field advantage, so we’ll take the points.

Cleveland +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams (Sunday night)

Jared Goff on the road in a night game, a limited Aaron Donald, and a chance for the Browns to break .500 for the first time since 2014 in front of a Sunday night national audience? I just can’t resist.

Washington +5.5 vs Chicago (Monday night)

Mitch Trubisky is 3–3 in night games with a 63 QB rating and 9 picks. Add in a home Monday night crowd against a Bears team that should be 0–2? Surely, Washington fans can show up for a Monday night game, Rajan Nanavati?

WEEK 3 BEST BETS

Kansas City -4.5 vs Baltimore

The Ravens have been impressive but against the Dolphins and Cards, and their defense hasn’t been as good as you think, plus Jimmy Smith is out. Patrick Mahomes has won 15 games since becoming a starter, and 12 of them were by a touchdown. Lamar Jackson came to Kansas City and took the Chiefs to overtime last year. This time the Chiefs will be ready.

San Francisco -6 vs Pittsburgh

This is the most the 49ers have been favored by since 2014, and they fit with Tampa and Buffalo as too-much-too-soon favorites —but this is a vote against Pittsburgh. The Steelers believe in Mason Rudolph, but I don’t. You don’t just go from Big Ben, Le’Veon, and AB to Rudolph, Conner, and JuJu without a drop, and Pitt’s D is not good. Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G are ready to eat.

Minnesota -9 vs Oakland

This was a much higher line than I expected, but Mike Zimmer’s Vikings take care of bad opponents at home. In the last two years, Minnesota faced nine “bad” opponents and won by two scores in all but one of them. ■

Last week: 9–7 Season total: 16–16 Best bets: 4–2

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