NFL Week 2 Picks against the Spread

What did we learn from a week of games? Let’s make some picks, with the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Chargers as Week 2 best bets…

WELL THAT WAS CERTAINLY EXHILARATING. There’s just nothing quite like a full Sunday of NFL games, and Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season did not disappoint. We got the arrival of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, a late comeback by Josh Allen, and a reminder that the Chiefs and Patriots are awesome. Plus we got a Browns reckoning to end all reckonings. The Cleveland Browns are back!! Or maybe they never left us.

Week 2 is all about overreactions, and that means there’s money to be made. One week of data tells us a lot, but let’s not throw all our offseason analysis out the window. So what did we learn in Week 1, and what should we still cling to from our preseason picks?

Week 2 gives us the long-awaited rematch between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams after the pass interference no-call heard round the world. That’s the Game of September, but it’s a loaded slate overall. Let’s make some picks…

THURSDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay +7 at Carolina (Thursday night)

Got another Thursday pick! We’re 2–0 on Thursdays and 0–2 on Mondays.

And Carolina is now 0–2 on any days. Woof. Cam Newton is canceled.

THE SUPER BOWL REMATCHES

Cincinnati -1 vs San Francisco

It’s a rematch of Joe Montana’s first Super Bowl in 1982! Only slightly less exciting. Fine — infinitely less exciting. Neither of these teams was as good as they looked Week 1. The 49ers benefited from Jameis Winston’s pick-12, and the Bengals technically lost by one but never felt like they were a real threat.

Andy Dalton was pretty good last week and looks a little rejuvenated under Zac Taylor’s offense, and San Francisco’s secondary is not particularly good. Take the home team and the better quarterback, and until Jimmy Garoppolo shows us something more, that sure looks like Dalton.

Pittsburgh -4 vs Seattle

So, uh… are the Steelers terrible? They sure looked terrible against New England, but they’re always awful in Foxboro, and Pittsburgh tends to have a few complete clunkers every year. They’re a different team at home, and this time they haven’t been distracted by taking an Antonio Brown victory lap all week. I like home Big Ben against a weak Seattle secondary, with an assist from a long West-to-East travel and a Seahawks team that tends to struggle on the road early.

Buffalo -1.5 at New York Giants

Three Super Bowl rematches all lined up in Week 2 of the #NFL100 season can’t be a coincidence, right? Expect to get hit over the head with that one all week. Bills fans were closest to glory against the Giants, but Scott Norwood would prefer not to talk about it.

These teams are a long ways from Super Bowl contention. The line here pretty much SCREAMS “Wait, do you really want to take Josh Allen as a road favorite?!?” and if you have read anything I’ve ever written, you know I do not. But the Giants are terrible and they feel like a trap. There’s one definitely good unit in this game, and it’s Buffalo’s defense. We’ll ride them… even if Josh Allen comes with them.

THE AFC SOUTH THUNDERDOME

Tennessee -3 vs Indianapolis

This is a weirdly intriguing game. Both teams acquitted themselves well in Week 1, among the most surprisingly impressive teams for me. The Titans defense really showed up against Cleveland, while the Colts pushed the Chargers all the way, probably should have won in regulation, and might have anyway if they’d won the OT coin flip. The winner here has my attention as a potential AFC Sleeper.

Marlon Mack will need to be a force to move the chains for Indy, and he may not have that in him yet every week. These offenses are similar — good line, strong run game, game manager QB. The difference is Tennessee’s defense just seems a little better up and down the roster.

Jacksonville +9 at Houston

Maybe we got the wrong Ewing Theory team in the AFC South all along. The Jaguars went out and got Nick Foles to change everything, but the change didn’t even last one half of football before Foles went out with a broken collarbone. This is Gardner Minshew’s team now, and Minshew actually looked pretty good against Kansas City. Granted, it’s just the Chiefs, but Minshew was accurate and smart with the ball, looking the part of exactly what the Jags need at QB — and he was that at Washington State too, so it might not be a fluke.

Houston looked pretty good at New Orleans and came a few seconds away from the biggest Week 1 win, and Jacksonville’s defense got rolled by the Chiefs. But Jalen Ramsey is always an entertaining matchup with DeAndre Hopkins so the Texans will have to beat them elsewhere. Maybe that will be J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus getting to Minshew, but I like the Jags to keep this close, and at +350 moneyline, they’re an intriguing bet straight up too.

NFL SEASON PREVIEW REWIND

If you’re still catching up on the season, here’s everything you need to know about all 32 NFL teams, broken down nicely into four sets of eight…

NOT AS EXCITING AS IT ONCE LOOKED

Denver +2.5 vs Chicago

The Vic Fangio Bowl should have been really interesting but lost a lot of its luster when both these teams looked terrible in Week 1. The Bears scored only three points, and the Broncos didn’t really do anything of note, and we had to watch both of them on national TV. No one is particularly excited to watch either team again but here we are, and it’s all about defense.

Fangio crafted this Bears defense so he knows their strengths and weaknesses, but does Denver have any weapons to exploit them? Much more interesting is Fangio’s Broncos D against Mitch Trubisky, and considering he got to coach the D against Trubisky for two years in Chicago, you know he knows exactly how to beat him. I don’t like Chicago getting 10 days of rest to just 6 from Denver on a very short week, but the Broncos are a different team at home and we’ll ride their home D against Trubisky.

Cleveland -2.5 at New York Jets (Monday night)

This should have been a really fun early Monday night game but then the Browns laid a complete turd in Week 1 and the Jets blew their sleeper status with a late loss to Buffalo. Now this feels like a loser-goes-home game with both teams playing for their lives early. Cleveland especially needs this one with a brutal schedule coming up.

Both these teams were doing just fine through three quarters last week. In another timeline, this is the matchup we all wanted. Instead, half the Jets roster is injured and their season may already be lost. If Cleveland can’t take care of business here, put a fork in them.

Miami +19 vs New England

This is nothing but a history play. This century, 12 NFL teams have been favored by more than 17 points at kickoff. All 12 won the game, but only two covered the spread, and five of the games were actually one-score affairs. In fact, New England was the favorite for five of those games, and they didn’t cover a single one of them.

This is just a massive line, and then there’s the recent history too — the Dolphins have won five of their last six home games against the Patriots. New England sucks in Miami somehow. I’m not sure the Fins are worth the +1200 straight up, but doesn’t this feel like one of those games where Belichick just rides Sony Michel and his backs for 45 carries and grinds out a boring win?

Philadelphia +1 at Atlanta (Sunday night)

These teams were both pretty bleh in Week 1, but neither was as bad as they looked. Atlanta moved the ball well enough but got in a bad hole early and caught some bad breaks. Philly was in a hole early too but was playing Washington instead of Minnesota, so they dug their way out.

These birds of prey can still be contenders, though there are concerns. The Falcons run D is not good and they could struggle to cover Zach Ertz. The Eagles secondary is a concern, especially against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones at home. Philly is the better team in the trenches and really just the better roster overall. This feels like a close game, so let’s just take the better team.

THE GAMES OF THE WEEK

Arizona +13.5 at Baltimore

This is a tough game to peg. A week ago, this would’ve been something like Baltimore -7.5. Then as of about 5pm on Sunday, the line might have opened closer to Baltimore -17, with the Ravens slaughtering Miami and Arizona doing absolutely nothing against Detroit. But then Kyler Murray and the offense heated up and pulled a tie out of thin air. Now this is weirdly maybe one of the most exciting games of the week? Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have to be among the top five or ten NFL League Pass watches.

So what happens here? Baltimore isn’t going to score 59 when they play a real NFL team, but it’s not totally clear yet if Arizona counts as that. Did Kyler and the offense click? Or did Detroit’s D just get tired? Is Lamar Jackson really a great QB now? Or does Miami just have only a few professional players on their team? It feels like Baltimore will score easily enough in this game, but the Cards may score too. Feels closer than two scores.

Green Bay -3 vs Minnesota

Oh baby, I’m excited for this one.

Both of these teams looked really good in Week 1, and both are talented enough to put up 12 wins and an NFC bye week this season, and this game could be the launching point for either. Aaron Rodgers has only lost once at home to Minnesota this decade — but he’s also only won one of his last six games against the Vikings. Has this Minnesota defense figured Rodgers out?

Minnesota could benefit from playing Green Bay early in the season, before Rodgers and the crew have figured out this Matt LaFleur offense. They really only had one good drive against the Bears, though they’ve had 10 days off now to get in sync with some real game film and experience. Rodgers will make a few plays. He always does.

The key matchup here is in the trenches. Minnesota’s run game looked amazing against Atlanta. Can the improved O-line hold up against Green Bay? Kenny Clark could be a nightmare matchup against a rookie center inside and Darnell Savage will help a lot at safety, but this Vikings run game attacks the outside and that’s where Green Bay is weaker on defense.

In the end, this feels like it could go either way, but it’s still Kirk Cousins on the road against Aaron Rodgers and I’m a cynical Vikings fan. Green Bay it is.

New Orleans +2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams and Saints have played three times in the last three years, and all three times the game came down to the final minutes. We know what these teams look like, and we know these teams are even. New Orleans has a short week after an emotional win, but you know they won’t have any problem getting up for this game after the way last season ended.

Alvin Kamara is the key to the game. The Rams struggled badly against Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, and Kamara is a more slippery version, a back that hits the edges, catches passes, and does everything. In those last three games against the Rams, Kamara has 53 touches for 415 yards and 5 TDs. That’s almost 8 yards a touch and nearly two touchdowns per game.

I’ve flip-flopped 10 times on this game. New Orleans has the better QB, RB, and WR. They have the better line, too. Los Angeles has the better secondary and Aaron Donald. The Rams are way better at home. The Saints are more motivated, though the Rams will like to show their Super Bowl berth was no fluke. In the end, I’ll take Brees against Goff and I’ll take the points in a game that could go in a hundred directions. Let’s hope this one lives up to the hype.

WEEK 2 BEST BETS

Dallas -5 at Washington

The Cowboys were the team that surprised and impressed me the most in Week 1. I shrugged them off after a number of factors made them look overrated last year, but this team looks better on both sides of the ball. Dak Prescott looked far more than a game manager, and the Kellen Moore offense looks modern and sleek. Dallas is loaded on both sides of the ball and might be a real contender.

Washington is not, and a few early drives against the Eagles won’t throw me off the scent. Case Keenum is not going to beat Dallas on his own. It feels like this game will be more like Dallas -8 in a month, and the Cowboys have owned the Redskins of late, winning 9 of the last 12 matchups.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 at Detroit

The Lions are not good. The Chargers are mostly good. That’s pretty much it. I don’t love taking the West-to-East travel teams, and there’s a bunch this week, but with a line this low, we’re just taking the better team and the Chargers are far better. They’re certainly far better coached, so that’s a massive advantage on its own, plus Detroit may have no answer for Austin Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield. Why do people still like the Lions?

Kansas City -7 at Oakland

I’m sorry, SEVEN points?! So the Raiders won an emotional Week 1 game at home on Monday night after a wild Antonio Brown saga against a possibly bad Broncos team. The Chiefs put up FORTY on possibly the league’s best defense and did it without their top weapon. Kansas City is a top-5 team, and the Raiders are probably still bottom-5.

The Chiefs will miss Tyreek Hill, but Mecole Hardman or Darwin Thompson will step in and produce, just like Damian Williams did last year. I guessed this line as Chiefs -14.5. How is this only a one touchdown game? Kansas City scores every time they touch the ball. This is our first lock of the season. ■

Thanks for putting up with the lack of polish on this one. We’ll do better in future weeks. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, TV, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.