avatarBrandon Anderson

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Abstract

ayoff contenders and potentially even Super Bowl contenders if everything bounces right. This is a game that sets the tone for each right out of the gates, and one that could be an important tiebreaker late.</p><p id="5252">Julio Jones was a question mark but should play now that he’s signed and could present a big problem for a Minnesota secondary with its question marks. The Vikings will try to establish the run against a weak defensive front seven from the Falcons. But the teams are mostly evenly matched. And honestly, it just feels like one of those games that comes down to a field goal and maybe just whoever has the ball last. So let’s just grab the points.</p><h2 id="cc8f">Tennessee +6 at Cleveland</h2><p id="9383">This is a stay away for me. The Titans were probably the team I had the hardest time figuring out. I project every game on the schedule as either a very likely win, likely win, coin flip, likely loss, or very likely loss — and I have the Titans down for 13 coin flips. This is one of them.</p><p id="9ba4">Are we sure the Browns are 6-point favorites over a team that has won nine games in three straight seasons? Are we sure Odell Beckham Jr. Is healthy? Are we sure the Browns offensive line can handle a tough defense like the Titans? Are we sure Cleveland is ready to handle all the offseason hype?</p><p id="acbd">I’m not.</p><h2 id="f9e1">New York Jets -2.5 vs Buffalo</h2><p id="5c4c">I’ve written about both of these teams quite a bit, and everywhere along the way I’ve had the Jets on the way up and the Bills a ways behind. The public is all over the Bills. They love the defense and Josh Allen and have bet big on the Bills in this game and most of their futures. I don’t see it.</p><p id="a7f7">I’ll take Sam Darnold over Josh Allen every day and 100 times on Sundays. The home team has won five straight in this divisional rivalry. I’m bullish on the Jets and bearish on the Bills this season, so this is a really important one to see where these teams are at early. Winner is the early AFC darling sleeper.</p><h2 id="2451">Washington +10 at Philadelphia</h2><p id="6016">I think Washington is more mediocre than bad. Philadelphia is my NFC Super Bowl pick but Doug Pederson knows his team needs to be ready in January, not September. Carson Wentz hasn’t played a down of ball since almost a year ago, and Washington’s defense is decent. The Eagles have won four straight over Washington by double digits, but 10 is too much for me on Opening Day in a division rivalry with all that Wentz rust.</p><h2 id="4f29">Indianapolis +6.5 at Los Angeles Chargers</h2><p id="971f">This line opened at +3.5, so apparently the drop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is worth three points. That’s about three points too low, I think, but I still like the Colts here — at least for one week. The Chargers are missing Derwin James, Melvin Gordon, and Russell Okung, and all three of those guys are key misses in this particular matchup.</p><p id="3fcb">I’m not a believer in these Colts long term this season, but I like them for one emotional Luck-less game, especially against a Chargers team due a regression of its own.</p><h2 id="37fb">Seattle -9.5 vs Cincinnati</h2><p id="8548">This feels like the perfect storm for Seattle. It’s Jadeveon Clowney’s debut, and he’ll be eager to show Seattle what he can do. Cincinnati has one of the worst offensive lines in the league and lost left tackle Jonah Williams for the season.</p><p id="fd79">Meanwhile Seattle has a questionable secondary but A.J. Green is out injured. The Bengals just don’t feel like they have any shot in this game. It feels like we’ll look back in a month and wonder how this line wasn’t closer to 14.</p><h2 id="5254">New York Giants +7.5 at Dallas</h2><p id="f35f">Have you noticed a theme? I’m just not buying the many heavy home favorites this week, so we’re riding the underdogs and taking the points. Dallas has had so many distractions in recent weeks with all the different contract talks. Ezekiel Elliott is in tow now, but how much will he be ready to contribute right away? And then there’s the Eli Manning factor, now playing with his back against the wall while Daniel Jones watches.</p><p id="f3ff">Dallas has won four in a row against the Giants and nine of the last 12, but nine of those games were one-score affairs, including three one-point games. This rivalry has a way of getting weird. These are two weird teams with weird offseasons and it feels like this one could get weird. Grab the points.</p><h2 id="800a">Tampa Bay PK vs San Francisco</h2><p id="e668">This is the biggest stay away on the board. There’s so much we don’t know about both of these teams right now. How much has Bruce Arians done for Tampa? Is Jimmy Garoppolo ready enough for San Fran? Both secondaries are awful, but both quarterbacks are questionable.</p><p id="b5e2">Tampa has the linebackers

Options

to cover George Kittle, but the 49ers have no shot against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Add in big travel for San Francisco and a muggy day in the 90s and I just feel ever so slightly better about the Bucs. This is one of the more intriguing games on the board.</p><h2 id="aa6e">Detroit +2.5 at Arizona</h2><p id="09fc">It feels like they’re just begging us to take the Cardinals. I won’t bite. Arizona is missing its top two corners, so Matt Stafford should have a field day. The Cards should be fun eventually, but this is the beginning for Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, and it feels like it could be a steep learning curve. Arizona is bad. Detroit is mediocre. That’s a big difference and it matters, especially as bad as the Cardinals O-line and secondary are.</p><h2 id="df65">New England -5 vs Pittsburgh</h2><p id="bac5">Well I guess we all know what we’ll be talking about during this game. Antonio Brown is a Patriot now somehow, though he can’t play in Week 1. This is our Sunday night matchup, and it’s a doozy. Tom Brady is 11–3 lifetime against Pittsburgh, including 5–0 at home by an average score of 37–19. New England owns the Steelers — and don’t put it past AB teaching the Pats an insider trick or two on the eve of the opener either.</p><h2 id="9782">New Orleans -6.5 vs Houston</h2><p id="1f1c">This was very close to a best bet pick, but Houston has so much firepower that I fear a late backdoor cover. The Texans have a lot of hype right now, and this line was bet all the way down from -9 where it opened. Will all those new Houston guys even be ready to play much, let alone make that much of a difference? I don’t buy it. The Texans still have a poor offensive line against a tough Saints pass rush, and the Saints are just way better.</p><p id="19e4">New Orleans at home on a Monday night to open the season? That dome is gonna be rocking. Drew Brees posts his very best career splits in night games, over 70% completion with almost a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio lifetime, and he’s even better on Monday nights. It feels like this could be effectively over at halftime.</p><h1 id="3d8e">Week 1 Best Bets</h1><h2 id="9843">Denver PK at Oakland</h2><p id="73e7">There will be plenty of Antonio Brown talk in this one too, no doubt. This just seems too easy. It’s hard to have more distractions than the Raiders, who had the HBO <i>Hard Knocks</i> cameras in town all of August but somehow upped the ante this weekend with the AB soap opera.</p><p id="a02f">Meanwhile Denver brings a ton of defensive talent and new head coach Vic Fangio ready to unleash them all. The Broncos are just the way better team here, and this feels like a late Monday night laugher. Just win, Denver.</p><h2 id="7d7d">Baltimore -6.5 at Miami</h2><p id="6243">The Dolphins are about to be a lot more than a touchdown underdog against a lot of teams. Miami isn’t really good anywhere on the roster except cornerback, and that’s not helpful against this team. The Dolphins defensive front seven stinks, so Baltimore can play Ravens ball, dominating on defense and running the ball down Miami’s throats. Add in the 91-degree heat with that ball control and Miami’s defense will be run ragged by late in the game. Could this be a Lamar Jackson coming out party?</p><h2 id="ad3f">Los Angeles Rams -1 at Carolina</h2><p id="5116">Three road team best bets in Week 1? This should end well.</p><p id="70eb">I always predict opening lines, and I had Rams -5 for this one. They opened -2.5 instead and have now been bet down to -1, and what are we doing here? The Rams have been awesome for two seasons. I know they didn’t play starters in preseason, and I know Jared Goff isn’t as good on the road, I get it. But the Panthers go as Cam Newton goes, and I see no reason to believe Newton is healthy and ready to go against a great secondary and the best defensive player in football.</p><p id="a50a">Maybe the Rams don’t dominate this one, but I don’t see Carolina scoring enough and L.A. only has to win the game to get this one. And they will. ■</p><p id="c041"><i>Thanks for putting up with the lack of polish on this one. We’ll do better in future weeks. Follow Brandon on Medium or <a href="https://twitter.com/wheatonbrando">@wheatonbrando</a> for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s <a href="https://readmedium.com/brandon-anderson-writing-archives-6b3ee1a29301#.6cteu050v">writing archives here</a>.</i></p><figure id="3b76"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*YnbtD8IipCsqVjNwkjtY8w.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="2ba5"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*d318hSQDEA-NP2sgKkTINw.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure id="0963"><img src="https://cdn-images-1.readmedium.com/v2/resize:fit:800/1*jwbMPAfFsxT_PGFz7US69Q.png"><figcaption></figcaption></figure></article></body>

NFL Week 1 Picks against the Spread

The season is finally here! Let’s make some picks, with the Rams, Ravens, and Broncos as Week 1 best bets…

THE NFL SEASON IS FINALLY HERE! And since I’ve literally written over 200,000 NFL words in the past month, I ran out of steam for a number of reasons so we’re going to forgo a long preamble and get right to the picks to get them on record. Below are my Week 1 picks and brief (lol, 2000 words later) thoughts on each.

Here are links to my in-depth preview of all 32 teams, if you missed them…

Green Bay +3 at Chicago

Hey, we’re 1–0 to start the year! Maybe I should just retire there.

This pick was in my Super Bowl contenders article, which also featured Green Bay and not Chicago. And now you know why.

Jacksonville +3.5 vs Kansas City

So much is unknown heading into Week 1, so most of the time the best pick is just the team you feel better about. And I feel better about the Jaguars this season, maybe not straight up head to head, but I think they’re on their way up while the Chiefs can really only go down.

The Jags have a real chance to be the #1 defense this season, and the #1 defense often wins the battle against the #1 offense, especially when they’ve had all offseason to prepare for them. In 15 games last season, Patrick Mahomes threw 50 TDs. In the other one, he had 0 TDs and 2 interceptions against Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars.

The Chiefs won comfortably anyway but it feels like this one will be much closer with a revitalized Jaguars team playing in the September Florida heat. This just feels like one of those games that could “shock” everyone and make all the analysts recalibrate a bit on both teams.

This is the Week 1 game I’m most excited for.

Atlanta +4 at Minnesota

The Falcons and Vikings are two really good teams with really strong rosters in really tough divisions. Both feel like solid playoff contenders and potentially even Super Bowl contenders if everything bounces right. This is a game that sets the tone for each right out of the gates, and one that could be an important tiebreaker late.

Julio Jones was a question mark but should play now that he’s signed and could present a big problem for a Minnesota secondary with its question marks. The Vikings will try to establish the run against a weak defensive front seven from the Falcons. But the teams are mostly evenly matched. And honestly, it just feels like one of those games that comes down to a field goal and maybe just whoever has the ball last. So let’s just grab the points.

Tennessee +6 at Cleveland

This is a stay away for me. The Titans were probably the team I had the hardest time figuring out. I project every game on the schedule as either a very likely win, likely win, coin flip, likely loss, or very likely loss — and I have the Titans down for 13 coin flips. This is one of them.

Are we sure the Browns are 6-point favorites over a team that has won nine games in three straight seasons? Are we sure Odell Beckham Jr. Is healthy? Are we sure the Browns offensive line can handle a tough defense like the Titans? Are we sure Cleveland is ready to handle all the offseason hype?

I’m not.

New York Jets -2.5 vs Buffalo

I’ve written about both of these teams quite a bit, and everywhere along the way I’ve had the Jets on the way up and the Bills a ways behind. The public is all over the Bills. They love the defense and Josh Allen and have bet big on the Bills in this game and most of their futures. I don’t see it.

I’ll take Sam Darnold over Josh Allen every day and 100 times on Sundays. The home team has won five straight in this divisional rivalry. I’m bullish on the Jets and bearish on the Bills this season, so this is a really important one to see where these teams are at early. Winner is the early AFC darling sleeper.

Washington +10 at Philadelphia

I think Washington is more mediocre than bad. Philadelphia is my NFC Super Bowl pick but Doug Pederson knows his team needs to be ready in January, not September. Carson Wentz hasn’t played a down of ball since almost a year ago, and Washington’s defense is decent. The Eagles have won four straight over Washington by double digits, but 10 is too much for me on Opening Day in a division rivalry with all that Wentz rust.

Indianapolis +6.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

This line opened at +3.5, so apparently the drop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is worth three points. That’s about three points too low, I think, but I still like the Colts here — at least for one week. The Chargers are missing Derwin James, Melvin Gordon, and Russell Okung, and all three of those guys are key misses in this particular matchup.

I’m not a believer in these Colts long term this season, but I like them for one emotional Luck-less game, especially against a Chargers team due a regression of its own.

Seattle -9.5 vs Cincinnati

This feels like the perfect storm for Seattle. It’s Jadeveon Clowney’s debut, and he’ll be eager to show Seattle what he can do. Cincinnati has one of the worst offensive lines in the league and lost left tackle Jonah Williams for the season.

Meanwhile Seattle has a questionable secondary but A.J. Green is out injured. The Bengals just don’t feel like they have any shot in this game. It feels like we’ll look back in a month and wonder how this line wasn’t closer to 14.

New York Giants +7.5 at Dallas

Have you noticed a theme? I’m just not buying the many heavy home favorites this week, so we’re riding the underdogs and taking the points. Dallas has had so many distractions in recent weeks with all the different contract talks. Ezekiel Elliott is in tow now, but how much will he be ready to contribute right away? And then there’s the Eli Manning factor, now playing with his back against the wall while Daniel Jones watches.

Dallas has won four in a row against the Giants and nine of the last 12, but nine of those games were one-score affairs, including three one-point games. This rivalry has a way of getting weird. These are two weird teams with weird offseasons and it feels like this one could get weird. Grab the points.

Tampa Bay PK vs San Francisco

This is the biggest stay away on the board. There’s so much we don’t know about both of these teams right now. How much has Bruce Arians done for Tampa? Is Jimmy Garoppolo ready enough for San Fran? Both secondaries are awful, but both quarterbacks are questionable.

Tampa has the linebackers to cover George Kittle, but the 49ers have no shot against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Add in big travel for San Francisco and a muggy day in the 90s and I just feel ever so slightly better about the Bucs. This is one of the more intriguing games on the board.

Detroit +2.5 at Arizona

It feels like they’re just begging us to take the Cardinals. I won’t bite. Arizona is missing its top two corners, so Matt Stafford should have a field day. The Cards should be fun eventually, but this is the beginning for Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, and it feels like it could be a steep learning curve. Arizona is bad. Detroit is mediocre. That’s a big difference and it matters, especially as bad as the Cardinals O-line and secondary are.

New England -5 vs Pittsburgh

Well I guess we all know what we’ll be talking about during this game. Antonio Brown is a Patriot now somehow, though he can’t play in Week 1. This is our Sunday night matchup, and it’s a doozy. Tom Brady is 11–3 lifetime against Pittsburgh, including 5–0 at home by an average score of 37–19. New England owns the Steelers — and don’t put it past AB teaching the Pats an insider trick or two on the eve of the opener either.

New Orleans -6.5 vs Houston

This was very close to a best bet pick, but Houston has so much firepower that I fear a late backdoor cover. The Texans have a lot of hype right now, and this line was bet all the way down from -9 where it opened. Will all those new Houston guys even be ready to play much, let alone make that much of a difference? I don’t buy it. The Texans still have a poor offensive line against a tough Saints pass rush, and the Saints are just way better.

New Orleans at home on a Monday night to open the season? That dome is gonna be rocking. Drew Brees posts his very best career splits in night games, over 70% completion with almost a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio lifetime, and he’s even better on Monday nights. It feels like this could be effectively over at halftime.

Week 1 Best Bets

Denver PK at Oakland

There will be plenty of Antonio Brown talk in this one too, no doubt. This just seems too easy. It’s hard to have more distractions than the Raiders, who had the HBO Hard Knocks cameras in town all of August but somehow upped the ante this weekend with the AB soap opera.

Meanwhile Denver brings a ton of defensive talent and new head coach Vic Fangio ready to unleash them all. The Broncos are just the way better team here, and this feels like a late Monday night laugher. Just win, Denver.

Baltimore -6.5 at Miami

The Dolphins are about to be a lot more than a touchdown underdog against a lot of teams. Miami isn’t really good anywhere on the roster except cornerback, and that’s not helpful against this team. The Dolphins defensive front seven stinks, so Baltimore can play Ravens ball, dominating on defense and running the ball down Miami’s throats. Add in the 91-degree heat with that ball control and Miami’s defense will be run ragged by late in the game. Could this be a Lamar Jackson coming out party?

Los Angeles Rams -1 at Carolina

Three road team best bets in Week 1? This should end well.

I always predict opening lines, and I had Rams -5 for this one. They opened -2.5 instead and have now been bet down to -1, and what are we doing here? The Rams have been awesome for two seasons. I know they didn’t play starters in preseason, and I know Jared Goff isn’t as good on the road, I get it. But the Panthers go as Cam Newton goes, and I see no reason to believe Newton is healthy and ready to go against a great secondary and the best defensive player in football.

Maybe the Rams don’t dominate this one, but I don’t see Carolina scoring enough and L.A. only has to win the game to get this one. And they will. ■

Thanks for putting up with the lack of polish on this one. We’ll do better in future weeks. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.

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