Week 6 NFL Picks against the Spread

The Chiefs and Texans play in the most fun game of the season, but the Packers, Chargers, and Patriots are Week 6 best bets…

WEEK 5 WAS A RETURN TO NORMALCY AROUND THE NFL, and it was a pretty entertaining week of games too, with nine one-score matchups. The Colts shocked the Chiefs, the Seahawks outlasted the Rams, and the Cowboys came up short against the Packers. In the end, only two teams were left unbeaten as we headed to Week 6.

The league is starting to shape up nicely. The Patriots and Chiefs are still far ahead of the pack in the AFC, while the cluster of teams atop the NFC is beginning to make a little sense. We bounced back last week going 9–5–1 on our picks, and we already crushed one of our best bets Thursday night. Let’s run through a quick Power Rankings and make some Week 6 picks…

TIER VII — THE FISH TANK

32. Miami Dolphins 0–4 (32) 31. Washington Haskins 0–5 (31) 30. New York Jets 0–4 (30) 29. Cincinnati Bengals 0–5 (29)

It’s getting crowded at the bottom. The Bengals have been responsible for two teams’ only win in recent weeks, but it’s a big one this week as Washington heads to Miami in a vital Tank-off for the #1 pick.

TIER VI — THE CROSS-OUTS

28. Pittsburgh Steelers 1–4 (24) 27. Arizona Cardinals 1–3–1 (28) 26. Atlanta Falcons 1–4 (26) 25. New York Giants 2–3 (25) 24. Denver Broncos 1–4 (27) 23. Tennessee Titans 2–3 (23)

Borrowing a Bill Simmons term, we are “crossing out” these teams from playoff competition this season. Along with the six below them, that’s 10 teams completely out after just five weeks. It feels a bit high, but it’s awfully difficult to build a playoff narrative for one of these teams. The Titans and Broncos are the best teams in this tier, and they play this week. Maybe the winner hangs around in the weak AFC wildcard race.

TIER V — HANGING AROUND

22. Los Angeles Chargers 2–3 (21) 21. Cleveland Browns 2–3 (18) 20. Oakland Raiders 3–2 (23) 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2–3 (17) 18. Jacksonville Jaguars 2–3 (14)

Speaking of hanging around, that’s precisely what these teams are doing, in part because of circumstance. Amazing what being a fringe AFC team can do for you (or a softer than expected NFC South). Only three AFC teams have more wins than the Raiders, but I suspect that “3” in the wins column will still be there when the calendar turns to November. I’m still out on the Browns and Chargers until they prove otherwise, and I still believe in my Florida sleepers even though both lost winnable games last week.

TIER IV — WHEN THEY’RE GOOD, THEY’RE GREAT

17. Chicago Bears 3–2 (9) 16. Carolina Panthers 3–2 (19) 15. Baltimore Ravens 3–2 (11) 14. Detroit Lions 2–1–1 (16) 13. Indianapolis Colts 3–2 (20)

These teams have been schizophrenic. Their weekly Power Rankings look like a heart monitor, like Indianapolis bouncing from 17 to 11 to 20 back to 13 over the past month. The Colts’ win over Kansas City was the most impressive W of the season so far, and the Lions nearly pulled it off a week ago. The Panthers and Ravens are moving in opposite directions, while the Bears continue to overwhelm — on both sides of the ball, if we’re being honest.

TIER III — THE BEST OF A HEFTY MIDDLE PACK

12. Houston Texans 3–2 (15) 11. Minnesota Vikings 3–2 (12) 10. Buffalo Bills 4–1 (13) 9. Dallas Cowboys 3–2 (4) 8. Los Angeles Rams 3–2 (6) 7. Seattle Seahawks 4–1 (10)

The truth is there’s precious little separating Tier III, IV, and V teams at this points, but these teams have the underlying metrics on their side. The Rams blew a winnable game in Seattle but looked more like the Rams than they had all season in the second half of that game. The Bills have 4 wins and play Washington and Miami three of their next five games; at this point, it’ll be a choke if they don’t make the playoffs. Minnesota and Houston look like top-5 teams sometimes and bottom-half-of-the-league others, with little in between.

TIER II — THE CHALLENGERS

6. Green Bay Packers 4–1 (7) 5. Philadelphia Eagles 3–2 (8) 4. New Orleans Saints 4–1 (3) 3. San Francisco 49ers 4–0 (5) 2. Kansas City Chiefs 4–1 (2)

The Chiefs keep the #2 spot for now, forgiven for a loss when half their team was injured or out, but another loss will send them sliding. But the 49ers ascend to the top spot in the NFC as the conference’s last unbeaten, a rapid rise in these Power Rankings from 21 to 12 to 8 to 5 to 3 over the past month. There’s nothing fluky about that team on either side of the ball, but they also have yet to play any team currently over .500 and need to keep piling up wins because the closing schedule is pretty rough.

TIER I — THE KING STAYS KING

1. New England Patriots 5–0 (1)

The Patriots are so #1 that they already locked up next week’s spot too after a Thursday night win. Not sure if we should be encouraged that the Pats don’t seem to be playing particularly well on offense or terrified they’ll figure it out eventually and be even more dangerous in conjunction with the league’s best defense ever through six games.

Let’s get to the Week 6 picks…

THE STAY AWAYS

Washington -3.5 at Miami

Washington has been embarrassingly bad so far, and that’s why Jay Gruden is now jobless, but this is still the difference between being an awful Big Ten team and a mediocre NAIA squad. Never underestimate the boost a team gets in their first game under a new coach.

Atlanta -2 at Arizona

Arizona has no corners to speak of. If Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can’t pick this team apart, Dan Quinn won’t need to get on their airplane back to Atlanta.

Denver -1.5 vs Tennessee

The Titans are basically an every week stay-away. Expect a low-scoring affair and a game you should literally stay away from watching, though the winner here stays on the fringe of AFC wildcard contention.

THE GOOD TEAMS VS BAD TEAMS

New York Jets +7 vs Dallas

The Cowboys are not in free fall. They lost two winnable games against good Saints and Packers teams. But they do have an unsettled offense that might be missing both tackles against a strong run defense and generally good D overall. It’s offense where the Jets have been miserable, and the return of Sam Darnold should help that in a big way. Dallas is still very good and should win this one, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you think.

Cincinnati +11 at Baltimore

These teams split the last three years. Baltimore probably isn’t as good as we think. Their three wins are against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, and we might still be hanging onto that Week 1 blowout against the Dolphins. And Cincinnati may not be as bad as they look, with losses to the Bills, Cardinals, and Seahawks by four points or fewer. The Bengals can keep it close.

Seattle -1 at Cleveland

That’s right — I’m counting the Browns as bad until they prove otherwise. This is the fourth worst offense in the NFL right now thanks to awful O-line play, some serious sophomore regression by Baker Mayfield, and incompetent coaching. Seattle has a huge rest advantage and is just playing far better football right now. Honestly, the best thing that could happen for these Browns might be another embarrassing home blowout loss heading into the bye week so this young can take the week to get things right (and maybe turn playcalling over to Todd Monken).

THE FRISKY FLORIDA SLEEPERS

Tampa Bay +2.5 vs Carolina (London, Sunday morning)

The Bucs won this game 20–14 a month ago in Charlotte, but Carolina has won nine of 13 in the rivalry. That Tampa win was the last time we’ve seen Cam Newton on a football field. Since then Kyle Allen is 3–0, but this game will be on his shoulders. The Bucs have the league’s #1 run defense and #32 pass D. That’s a formula that could befuddle a team that’s been more about Christian McCaffrey than Kyle Allen. Tampa really needs to get this one.

New Orleans +3 at Jacksonville

No, you’re not reading that line wrong. Look, I’m really trying to believe in the Jaguars and MINSHEW SZN but this line is ludicrous. I projected this line as -3.5 in the Saints favor, so this is almost a touchdown discrepancy. I don’t know what I’m not seeing. It’s probably partly Alvin Kamara being listed as questionable, but Jacksonville’s run defense is so bad it might not matter.

THE GAMES OF THE WEEK

Kansas City -4 vs Houston

This line has dropped from 7.5 to 4 thanks to a litany of Chiefs injuries, and that’s a real shame for what might be the most fun matchup of the season. Kansas City will be missing four linemen (two on offense and two on D) and both starting receivers, and we saw how limited Patrick Mahomes was on that ankle Sunday night. Houston can absolutely win this game, and they probably should if they want to really announce themselves as an AFC contender. But if you give me Mahomes at home by 4, I’m taking him every time.

Philadelphia +3 at Minnesota

This is the fourth time in four years for this little rivalry, but it’s the first visit for Carson Wentz to Minnesota, where he’s likely to find a pretty welcoming crowd with North Dakota State fans that have been awaiting this homecoming for years. Philly’s outstanding run D should limit Dalvin Cook, but their pass defense should be no match for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. This game is 100% on Kirk Cousins showing up and making the plays he has to at home against an outmatched opponent. And that’s why I’m taking the Eagles.

Los Angeles Rams -3 vs San Francisco

The Rams have lost two in a row and badly need this one before the division slips through their fingers. San Francisco is no fluke, with the fourth best DVOA defensive start ever, and Sean McVay is 3–1 against Kyle Shanahan, the one loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game. Here’s hoping this is the start of a classic rivalry between two of the NFL’s best and brightest. Los Angeles has a huge rest advantage, having played Thursday versus Monday for the Niners, and in such a toss-up, that might be enough.

WEEK 6 BEST BETS

Green Bay -4 vs Detroit (Monday night)

The Lions have beaten Green Bay four times in a row for the first time since 1983, but the Pack have won 19 of 27 in this rivalry even with that. Maybe that’s because only one of those four wins came against Aaron Rodgers, who has 37 TDs and 6 interceptions lifetime against the Lions. Rodgers at home in front of the Monday night lights? Check please.

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs Pittsburgh (Sunday night)

Quick, who’s the Steelers starting quarterback? Here, I’ll even give you choices: is it Dylan Wyatt, Hunter Herman, Cletus Hogg, or Jayden Wolfe? You still don’t know, do you? I projected the Chargers as 13-point favorites. If you can’t even name the Steelers QB, they should not be under a TD favorite on the road against any team, let alone one that won 12 games last year.

New England -17 vs New York Giants (Thursday night)

Hey hey, already 1–0 on our triple prime-time best bets week!

By the way, it’s actually Samford alum, Devlin Hodges. Happy betting! ■

Last week: 9–5–1 Season total: 39–38–1 Best bets: 7–7–1

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