Week 5 NFL Picks against the Spread
The Packers and Cowboys play in America’s Game of the Week, but the Patriots, Ravens, and Bears are Week 5 best bets…
CAN YOU BELIEVE WE ARE ALREADY A QUARTER OF THE WAY THROUGH THE NFL SEASON? Yes, we’ve played 64 of 256 regular season games, exactly 25% of the season in the books. So what do we know so far? The Chiefs and Patriots are really good. The Dolphins are not. And just about everything else still feels up in the air, with an incredible 13 teams at 2–2 including the entire AFC South division.
Week 4 was a really weird one. Kansas City and New England barely hung on against Detroit and Buffalo and probably should have lost. The Bucs hung 55 points on the Rams in L.A., the Browns crushed the Ravens in Baltimore, and road teams went 11–4 in a topsy-turvy week of games.
At least I hope it was topsy-turvy, because we got absolutely crushed on Week 4 picks. I went 1–7 in the early window last Sunday, including 0–3 on our best bets. BUT we bounced back with a 5–1 finish and lucked into a Thursday night 0.5-point cover, so let’s get it all back and make some Week 5 picks!
THURSDAY PICK
Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at Seattle
You know what? Sometimes you need a little luck.
THE STAY-AWAYS
Houston -4 vs Atlanta
The stay-away game of the season so far. It’s impossible to get a handle on these teams, both of which have played less than the sum of their parts thus far. It feels like Dan Quinn’s job is teetering on the edge at this point, and Bill O’Brien may join him there if the Texans lose this one. Atlanta has no shot covering DeAndre Hopkins. Hopefully that will be enough.
Arizona +4.5 at Cincinnati
It’s early October, and this is already about draft position and nothing else. These teams have been equally awful through four games, but Arizona at least seems to have some semblance of an idea of what they’re building. We’ll just take the points and skip this one.
Denver +6.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos aren’t good, but they’re not as bad as their 0–4 record would indicate. These teams have played eight games in 2019 and all of them were close late except the Chargers JV game against the Dolphins, and five of the last seven matchups were one-score affairs too. The Chargers always seem to play down to opponents like this.
Buffalo +3 at Tennessee
This one probably won’t be as exciting as the Music City Miracle. It looks like Josh Allen has cleared concussion protocol and should play, which means a better Bills team should win this one, but you never know with the Titans. Points will be at a premium. Take the under.
THE BIG FAVORITES
Philadelphia -13 vs New York Jets
Neither of these teams has played in a long time. The Jets had an early bye, and the Eagles got 10 desperately needed days off after a huge Thursday night win in Green Bay. Doug Pederson’s Eagles typically take care of bad teams with ease, and the Jets are really bad. Philly’s cornerback woes make them ripe for a backdoor cover against most teams, but we won’t fear Luke Falk.
Minnesota -5 at New York Giants
Whether or not Kirk Cousins is bad, the Vikings are just way better than the Giants, and they should win this game with ease on the strength of their defense alone. Danny Dukes may have enjoyed life against the Bucs and Redskins, but this is a different challenge, and Saquon Barkley is still out. Either the Vikings win easily or, if the Stefon Diggs locker room drama is real, they blow the game completely and the season is over early.
Detroit -21.5 at Miami
Just kidding. The Dolphins are on a bye this week, but they still gave up a Lions touchdown while you were reading this sentence anyway.
Kansas City -8.5 vs Indianapolis
Remember how the Colts defense was supposed to be bad last year and then it wasn’t? Turns it it’s bad again, second to last in DVOA through one month. Bad defense plus Patrick Mahomes, throw in a road game and lots of key Colts injuries, and this sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
SUDDENLY PRETTY INTERESTING
Jacksonville +3 at Carolina
Two weeks ago, these teams were 0–2 and left for dead, but I tabbed them as the most likely teams to turn things around and get to the playoffs. A couple weeks later and they’re each 2–2 and looking frisky in suddenly wide open divisions. These teams have been the opposite of what was expected. Jacksonville’s offense has actually been solid while the defense is below average, but Carolina’s defense has been great and carrying an offense that hasn’t offered much outside of Christian McCaffrey. Feels like this will be close late, and I’m not about to start betting against Gardner Minshew now.
Tampa Bay +4.5 at New Orleans
Is it crazy to think the Bucs might be better than the Saints? It’s probably crazy. The Saints just beat the Seahawks and Cowboys without Drew Brees, and those teams are 7–0 in other games. The Bucs hung 55 on the Rams in L.A. and are now top-5 in points scored. Jameis Winston still makes five boneheaded decisions every game, but he’s also got all the physical tools and he’s giving Chris Godwin and Mike Evans chances in this aggressive Byron Leftwich offense. Tampa is going to score a bunch, so can this conservative Teddy Bridgewater attack keep up? I’m starting to believe in this Bucs team. If they steal this one on the road, they’re the new division favorite.
THE GAMES OF THE WEEK
Dallas -3 vs Green Bay
Green Bay has been winning with defense thus far, but it’s mostly been pass D with a pretty weak run defense comparatively. Dallas may have a more balanced attack this year, but they still know how to run the ball, and Zeke is going to eat against the Packers. Green Bay does have a major rest advantage but Aaron Rodgers is only 4–3 against Dallas and won’t have his security blanket Davante Adams. This is the game of the week and one of only two on Sunday afternoon because the NFL is dumb, but it feels like it could turn into a Cowboys blowout unless the Packers find a way to stop Ezekiel Elliott.
San Francisco -3.5 vs Cleveland (Monday)
The last two Thursday games have been great, and now it’s a fun Monday nighter between America’s sleeper and another that should be getting more attention. The 49ers are 3–0 with the #6 DVOA offense and #2 D, but they’ve beaten the Bucs, Bengals, and Steelers. Cleveland seemed to put everything together against the Ravens, but I’m not ready to believe the Browns can do that consistently. I promised myself I’d stop picking the Browns to break .500 for the first time since December 2014 until they actually do it. Can this revitalized 49ers defense hang with a potent Browns offense?
WEEK 5 BEST BETS
Baltimore -3 at Pittsburgh
It feels crazy to take a road team in this rivalry as a best bet. Six of the last eight matchups were one-score affairs, and Pittsburgh has won four of five. But they’ve also won 5-of-10 and 7-of-17, and they don’t have Ben or Bell or Brown anymore. Mason Rudolph is so mediocre this team is running Wildcat now. Baltimore’s offense is really good, and the Steelers won’t be able to stop them. Forget the jerseys and the history — just take the far better team.
Chicago -4.5 vs Oakland (London)
The Bears would’ve been only 3-point favorites with Mitch Trubisky, but they catch a break with Chase Daniel playing. Fine, that’s a lie, but is it outlandish to think the Bears are better with a quarterback that can actually go through progressions and make reads? It might not matter in this one once you remember it’s the Khalil Mack revenge game he’s waited 14 months for. Derek Carr will be lucky to finish the game in one piece.
New England -13 at Washington
Washington has apparently decided to start Colt McCoy this week, a guy who hasn’t taken a game snap since last December. This is a home game for Washington but it’s going to be 90% Patriots fans, and the Skins fans who are there should be booing the team for keeping Dwayne Haskins off the field. New England has the best pass defense in the league. You could not set this line high enough for me to consider taking Washington. How bad does this one have to be for it to be Jay Gruden’s last day at the helm? Lock it in. ■
Last week: 6–9 Season total: 30–33 Best bets: 6–6
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