The Bills and Lions Earned Our Respect — Even Though They Lost

Buffalo and Detroit came up short in big home upset bids, but they won our respect anyway and look like real contenders

WEEK 4 IN THE NFL SAW TWO MATCHUPS OF PREVIOUSLY UNBEATEN TEAMS. The Kansas City Chiefs visited the Detroit Lions and escaped with a late comeback win, while the New England Patriots went to Buffalo and held on late to beat the Bills, 16–10. Both games were closer than expected, and both home underdogs had a good showing.

In fact, both the Lions and Bills were just a couple plays away from winning their games and shocking the nation. And even though they both ended up losing the games, they also won our respect and showed themselves as true 2019 contenders in the process.

Let’s dive into the film and see what we can learn from each game…

The Lions go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs

Let’s start with a weird one in Detroit. The Lions were impressive early, jumping out to a 10–0 lead before the Chiefs took it to halftime tied at 13. That’s when everything went sideways for both teams.

The Chiefs fumbled the second half kickoff, the first of five fumbles in a 10-minute stretch, all recovered by the opponent. When the dust settled, the Lions had dominated the 3rd quarter statistically and took a 23–20 lead into the final frame. The Chiefs took the lead, but Matt Stafford and the Lions fought back with a TD drive of their own to go up 30–27 with two and a half minutes left. But Patrick Mahomes did his thing, and the Chiefs scored the winning TD in the final minute.

So what did we learn?

1. The Lions could — and should — have won this game.

The Lions were the better team. They ran 73 plays to KC’s 67, had the ball 34 minutes to the Chiefs’ 26, and outgained them 447 to 438 in yardage. The Lions played the Chiefs even — and with another minute on the clock, they could have beat them.

Of course, they should have beat them anyway. Let’s talk about that brutal 21-point swing. The Lions scored the go-ahead touchdown on their opening 3rd quarter drive on a Kenny Golladay reception. But it’s Detroit, home of Calvin Johnson, and the refs overturned the TD for no apparent reason. On the next play, Stafford lost a fumble. Boom, seven points, wiped totally off the board.

Undaunted, the Lions got the ball back five plays later and marched right back down the field. Detroit handed the ball off at the 2 and pushed toward the goal line. They came up a few inches short, and everyone in the stadium thought the play was over — except one guy. Bashaud Breeland scurried in and scooped up a ball everyone thought had been blown dead (and one that would have been if not for the Saints-Rams fiasco two weeks ago), then ran 100 yards the other direction. Replays confirmed the runner was never down, the play was never blown dead, and the touchdown stood. Instead of seven points for Detroit, it was seven for the Chiefs. A brutal 14-point swing.

This replay thing is a problem. We tell players to think about safety first but ask them to play to the whistle — but we’ve told refs to swallow their whistle and let things play out. And we told the refs to err toward letting the call on the field stand — even though we told them to call things on the field differently than they’d otherwise interpret. It’s a big problem, and it’s only getting worse.

The Lions probably should’ve been up 27–13 at that point, and they scored the next 10 points, too. The Lions would have been the talk of the town. Instead it was 20–13 Chiefs, and you know how the rest played out from there.

2. The Lions had a clear game plan, and it worked to a T.

The 2019 Lions always looked interesting. The defense was solid. The O-line looked good. Kerryon Johnson added a power run game. Stafford does his thing. The one thing missing was the coaching. Matt Patricia looked completely overwhelmed and lost last year. Darrell Bevell is the wrong kind of old school at OC. Same with Paul Pasqualoni, the DC.

And those guys just coached the heck out of a game against one of the best coaching units in the league.

Both teams committed heavily to the run. That made sense for the Lions. The best defense against Patrick Mahomes is keeping him off the field. Kerryon Johnson was fantastic, running 26 times for 125 yards. The Lions rushed for 186 yards in 35 plays, a robust 5.3 yards per play, chewing up the clock and letting Stafford finish the job in the red zone.

The Chiefs were equally committed to the run — and that made no sense. Snacks Harrison is the best run stuffer in the league, and Detroit’s run defense is good. LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams had only 30 yards on 18 carries, outside of one 39 yarder McCoy busted. The Lions played the Chiefs to take away the deep ball and force them to go on long sustained drives. Run the ball and take away the big play from Mahomes? That’s a winning strategy.

There’s one other winning strategy the Lions took. They punched the ball.

Remember Peanut Tillman? The Lions had a whole bag of Peanuts out there Sunday. They clearly saw something in the scouting report that the Chiefs didn’t have great ball security, and they attacked it all game. On one play, it looked like a Lions defender purposely didn’t go for a tackle, baiting the Chiefs to get up and go for more yardage, then punching the ball out. On another play, the Lions saved a TD by punching the ball out of Sammy Watkins’s grasp in the end zone.

All those Chiefs fumbles? They weren’t flukes. Recovering fumbles is luck. Forcing them is skill, and the Lions punched at the ball all game. It was a clear and purposeful game plan, the Lions believed they could beat the Chiefs, and they almost did.

3. Matt Stafford outplayed Patrick Mahomes.

One quarterback in this game went 21-for-34 for 291 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions. The other one was Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes was not bad, but he was not his usual self. He was off on a handful of throws and couldn’t hit the big play downfield. It was really his feet that saved Mahomes. He ran 6 times for 54 yards, including a key 15-yard run on 4th-and-8 on the game-winning drive.

The game moves so slowly for Mahomes. On one play, Mahomes looked back at the ref during the play to check for a flag before running for the first down. On the winning drive, he did it again, noticing a flag behind him for defensive holding and sliding for a one-yard run to save time and take the penalty.

Mahomes just processes an insane amount of information, in addition to all the physical gifts. The Chiefs played an undefeated team with a good game plan, dropped a TD, missed a FG, had three straight drives end in a fumble, and still won because Mahomes is a football god.

But Stafford was just as good. He had three touchdowns and could’ve easily added a couple more. Stafford made good decisions all game. Even after that 21-point swing, Stafford got the Lions back in the game with two touchdowns to Kenny Golladay late in what should’ve been another 4th-quarter comeback win for Stafford.

Even after that Mahomes drive, Stafford gave the Lions a chance. He immediately hit Marvin Jones on a rope for 25 yards, getting the Lions to midfield, then threw two good Hail Mary balls in the final seconds.

Stafford has 9 TDs and 2 INTs. That paces to 36 touchdowns and 8 interceptions for almost 4500 yards. It would be Stafford’s best season ever, and he’s averaging a career-high 8.0 yards per attempt and 103 QB rating. Those are MVP numbers — in a world without Mahomes.

The Lions look like the real deal, and they almost knocked off the Chiefs on Sunday to prove it.

The Bills Almost Beat the Patriots, Too

This game had a totally different feel. The Patriots dominated early, passing through the Buffalo O-line like it wasn’t even there. New England scored a quick touchdown, then blocked a Bills punt for a TD, and the rout was on.

Only it wasn’t. New England struggled to move the ball, only scoring three more points after that. Josh Allen found his rhythm heading into halftime and the Bills nearly stole a win and may have been the better team a majority of the game. So what did we learn?

1. Both these defenses are dominant.

I watched game immediately after finishing Chiefs-Lions, and it was like watching a totally different sport. Neither team moved the ball with any consistency, and both quarterbacks were pedestrian at times and awful at others.

And at some point, you just have to appreciate the outstanding defense on display. In a league where offense dictates everything, these teams win with their defense — an especially interesting contrast since they’re the teams standing in the way of the Chiefs getting to the Super Bowl.

New England’s defense finally gave up a touchdown for the first time all season, but it took a 4th down QB sneak, and it didn’t come until their fifteenth quarter of the season. That’s impressive no matter who you’re playing. New England has the league’s best pass defense, complete with their usual pass rush once they get ahead, pin their ears back, and get after the QB.

Buffalo’s defense was just as impressive, especially since they played in a hole most of the game. They made Tom Brady look old, and he’d have been a bigger story if the Bills had completed the comeback. Brady finished 18-of-39 for 46%, and only 150 yards.

Late in the 2nd quarter with the Patriots up 13–0 and ready to throw the knockout punch, Brady gifted the Bills an interception that turned the game. That pick is just a footnote now, but it would’ve been the story had the Bills won this one. Buffalo’s red zone defense was awesome, and almost everything was underneath for New England all game. Another team would’ve gotten killed for their lack of aggression and poor quarterback play.

Buffalo gave up only 10 offensive first downs to the Patriots. New England recorded only 224 yards of offense on an awful 3.6 yards per play. The two teams combined to go 7-of-31 on 3rd down. They had 27 drives between them and scored only five times.

This was a defensive bloodbath, and these might be the two best defensive teams in the league.

2. It was a tale of two halves for Josh Allen.

I’ve never been a believer in Josh Allen, and he was miserable early.

Allen had two fumbles in the first few minutes but was lucky to recover both. Twice in the 1st quarter, he took a deep shot downfield on a pass I’d label “hopeful,” throwing into double coverage on 1st down off his back foot. Both times he was intercepted. He had another 1st-down interception in the 3rd quarter. Not all interceptions are created equal, and sometimes it’s worth taking a shot on 3rd down when a pick is almost like a punt. That was not the case for these three interceptions.

Allen routinely held the ball too long, especially on disadvantaged downs. He took a key sack on 3rd down in the first half to knock Buffalo out of field goal range, and holding the ball too long was the reason for the early fumbles too.

With four minutes in the half, the Patriots were on a 16-play 92-yard drive that looked certain to end the game when Brady threw his awful interception. At that point, Josh Allen had as many completions to his teammates as he did to Patriots — 2 of each, plus 2 fumbles and 2 sacks. It was ugly.

Then Frank Gore ripped off a long run and got Buffalo a field goal, and New England clock mismanagement gave the Bills another chance just before half. Dawson Knox made a great adjustment to a poor Allen throw for a big first down, but Allen wasted a play spiking the ball with no play ready and over 30 seconds left. A missed face-mask penalty should’ve given the Bills the ball near the goal line, but on the following play Allen kept the ball too long again and ate another sack. Buffalo settled for a field goal but it hooked left in the last few yards — another three points lost on an Allen sack.

Buffalo was lucky to go into the half down 13–3, then got an extended halftime so they could perform a wedding on the field for a couple lifelong fans. Kyle Williams performed the ceremony and Jim Kelly gave the bride away. Not the first time Jim Kelly gave something away with a ring on the line.

The two-minute drives before the half seemed to help Allen immensely. He looked like a totally different player starting the 3rd quarter. The Bills put Allen in shotgun and he completed 6-of-6 passes on the drive, making quick, smart decisions and getting the ball out quickly before the rush could get to him. Allen carried over the rhythm he’d developed late in the first half, and the Bills drove deep into New England territory and punched it on on a 4th-and-goal lunge by Allen. It was by far his best drive of the day.

There were other good plays. Allen did a good job recognizing a free play when the Patriots jumped offside, taking a shot downfield. He had a couple nice runs, bulldozing into defenders for extra yardage. Later in the quarter, those good feelings disappeared with a 3rd interception tossed into double coverage on first down. But I was impressed with Allen’s short-term memory. He bounced right back after that bad play and immediately connected on a nice first down throw.

Allen didn’t get to finish the game. On the second play of the 4th quarter, he took off running on 3rd down, dragging a defender with him when he was hit helmet-to-helmet and exited the game. The hit was rightfully flagged, but it’s a reminder of the risk you run with a quarterback like Allen.

The referees called it an unsportsmanlike hit on a defenseless player, but the problem is Allen isn’t defenseless. He’s a big dude who was still moving forward, fighting for the first down. If you’re going to play like a running back, sometimes you’re going to get hit like one, too. It’s not Allen’s fault he was hit helmet-to-helmet, but his style of play and willingness to keep plays alive so long leave him vulnerable. That’s a problem for your franchise QB.

In the end, it was a mixed bag for Allen — some good, some bad, and a little ugly. That’s par for the course for the Josh Allen experience. He’s growing but still has a long ways to go. But this Buffalo team is built perfectly to help him succeed at this stage, so let’s see what they can do.

The Bills almost won without Allen. Matt Barkley completed a long pass on his first play, and a couple plays later the Bills were inches away from completing a trick play touchdown pass. Two plays later, they’d have scored a TD but were a couple yards short because of a delay of game. Then they made the right call to go for it on 4th down but couldn’t find the end zone. Barkley even got the Bills into decent position at the two-minute warning for one final chance but then had his pass tipped and intercepted to end it.

Neither team looked particularly good unless you focused on the defense, and the Patriots appeared far more vulnerable than they’ve looked in recent weeks. But the Bills acquitted themselves nicely and had every chance to win a game they probably should’ve been blown out in.

In the end, both the Lions and Bills lost the game, but they won my respect. Each of them actually moved up in my Week 5 Power Rankings despite the home loss. Let’s get to this week’s rankings…

TIER IX — THE FISH TANK

32. Miami Dolphins 0–4 (Last week: 32) 31. Washington Haskins 0–4 (27) 30. New York Jets 0–3 (31)

Promises are promises, right Aellé?

TIER VIII — D.O.A.

29. Cincinnati Bengals 0–4 (26) 28. Arizona Cardinals 0–3–1 (30) 27. Denver Broncos 0–4 (25)

The Broncos should be 2–2 right now, but they’re not, and now Bradley Chubb is out for the year. The season is already lost for these three, but at least the Bengals or Cards have to get their first win this week — against each other.

TIER VII — SIGNS OF LIFE

26. Atlanta Falcons 1–3 (22) 25. New York Giants 2–2 (29) 24. Pittsburgh Steelers 1–3 (24) 23. Oakland Raiders 2–2 (28)

Let’s just say these teams still count as a bad loss for any opponent. All four play upper-middle-class teams this week, each as deserving underdogs. Let’s see if any of them can pull off the upset and grab our attention.

TIER VI — I DON’T BELIEVE YET

22. Tennessee Titans 2–2 (23) 21. Los Angeles Chargers 2–2 (16) 20. Indianapolis Colts 2–2 (11) 19. Carolina Panthers 2–2 (20) 18. Cleveland Browns 2–2 (18)

A full 13 of the NFL’s 32 teams are 2–2 right now — over 40%!! — so there is a ginormous middle class we genuinely don’t know much about. Everyone here has at least one impressive win and at least one baffling loss. One of these teams probably wins their division; another finishes 6–10. The truth is none of us know yet, so if you think one of these teams should swap spots with a team five spots above them, you may well be right.

TIER V — THE FRISKY SLEEPERS

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2–2 (21) 16. Detroit Lions 2–1–1 (19) 15. Houston Texans 2–2 (10) 14. Jacksonville Jaguars 2–2 (17)

Three of these teams finished last in the division a year ago. The Jaguars were my pick to go worst-to-first and make the playoffs. Thanks to Minshew Mania, they’re now tied for the division lead. Bruce Arians has the Bucs offense humming, and we already covered the Lions. It’s much tougher in the NFC, but open divisions help all of these teams. I’m starting to believe.

TIER IV — 5 SPOTS TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW

13. Buffalo Bills 3–1 (15) 12. Minnesota Vikings 2–2 (7) 11. Baltimore Ravens 2–2 (6) 10. Seattle Seahawks 3–1 (13)

You disagree strongly with at least one of these teams, I know. My defense? I don’t have one. I mean, I do, but there’s just so many average teams it’s not even worth trying to guess at this. The crazy thing is the Bills or Ravens are probably the third best team in the AFC right now. Look, some average teams rank 20th and some rank 10th. That’s just where we’re at right now.

TIER III — NFC SECOND TIER

9. Chicago Bears 3–1 (12) 8. Philadelphia Eagles 2–2 (14) 7. Green Bay Packers 3–1 (5) 6. Los Angeles Rams 3–1 (3)

Ah yes, back to the teams we’re pretty sure are good. This is the NFC’s second class for now, which is both a compliment and a problem. These teams currently rank 4th through 7th in the NFC. That means everyone below them is fighting for a playoff spot that doesn’t exist — and it means one of these teams may miss too. The NFC is an absolute bloodbath this fall. The Bears and Eagles clawed their ways to big, unexpected wins last week. This year, every NFC win will matter. Every one of them.

TIER II — THE BEST IN THE NFC

5. San Francisco 49ers 3–0 (8) 4. Dallas Cowboys 3–1 (4) 3. New Orleans Saints 3–1 (9)

So who’s the best team in the NFC right now? The Saints earned my respect after tough Brees-less underdog wins against the Seahawks and Cowboys, who are 6–0 otherwise. New Orleans still has a tricky road ahead without Brees with the Bucs, Jags, and Bears up next, and remember, every NFC win matters this year. And these teams all face tough opponents this week, so the NFC might just shake up again. Heck, they might all lose this week. If they do, we’ll shake up our NFC magic 8-ball and try again next week.

TIER I — AHEAD OF THE PACK

2. Kansas City Chiefs 4–0 (2) 1. New England Patriots 4–0 (1)

What else is there to say? We could’ve left an empty Tier II below these two just to show how far ahead of the pack they are right now. Circle December 8 on your calendar. That’s our AFC Championship Game preview. ■

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