Week 4 NFL Power Rankings and Picks ATS

Three weeks into the NFL season, which teams are falling and who’s rising to the top? Plus picks for every Week 4 game…

WEEK 4 IS HERE, AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEPARATE THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF. Believe it or not, after Week 4, we’ll already be one quarter of the way through the 2019 NFL regular season. NFL life comes at you fast, and some teams have already risen to the top while others have quickly fallen far behind.

Week 4 brings two big matchups between unbeaten teams, with the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots traveling to meet the surprising Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, respectively. So where do those four teams fit in the Week 4 Power Rankings, and who comes out on top? Let’s jump right into the power rankings and make some Week 4 picks…

TIER VIII — THE FISH TANK

32. Miami Dolphins 0–3 (32) 31. New York Jets 0–3 (31)

Yes, the Jets are so bad right now they get to join the Dolphins all the way at the bottom. It’ll get better once Sam Darnold is back, but it’s ugly right now.

TIER VII — AND FOR THAT REASON, I’M OUT

30. Arizona Cardinals 0–2–1 (23) 29. New York Giants 1–2 (30) 28. Oakland Raiders 1–2 (24) 27. Washington Haskins 0–3 (28) 26. Cincinnati Bengals 0–3 (29) 25. Denver Broncos 0–3 (26) 24. Pittsburgh Steelers 0–3 (27) 23. Tennessee Titans 1–2 (19)

This is way too big a tier, but I’m just out on all these teams. I have a really hard time seeing any of them in the playoffs, even though it’s ludicrous to count 10 teams out after only three weeks.

If you had to pick one of these teams to make a playoff run, who would you go with? Tennessee is probably the least bad of all the teams. Daniel Jones could get the Giants back to .500 against Washington. Someone has to get a win Monday night between Pittsburgh and Cincy. If I had to pick someone, I’d go with the Titans since the AFC is wide open, but it’s ugly.

TIER VI — THE NFC SOUTH CONTENDERS

22. Atlanta Falcons 1–2 (16) 21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1–2 (22) 20. Carolina Panthers 1–2 (20)

Remember when the NFC South looked like the best division in football? That was only a month ago. Now Drew Brees and Cam Newton are hurt, Atlanta can’t stop anyone to save their lives, and the Bucs are still the Bucs. A few weeks ago, this bad a start would’ve doomed any of these NFC South teams, but with all four of them struggling, the division remains wide open.

I’m weirdly intrigued by the Kyle Allen Panthers and by the Bruce Arians experiment in Tampa. If New Orleans struggles without Brees, I believe in both those teams more than Atlanta.

TIER V — THE CREAMY MIDDLE

19. Detroit Lions 2–0–1 (21) 18. Cleveland Browns 1–2 (11) 17. Jacksonville Jaguars 1–2 (25) 16. Los Angeles Chargers 1–2 (15) 15. Buffalo Bills 3–0 (18)

This is a mishmash tier with two unbeaten teams, two huge disappointments, and my favorite sleeper still hanging around.

I still don’t believe in the Bills or Lions. They’re both at home this week against a real opponent, so let’s see what they’ve got. And I’m about ready to be out on the Browns. They can’t block, the coaching is awful, and Baker doesn’t look ready. The Chargers are still the Chargers, which is not a compliment.

And in the middle of all that mess, it’s MINSHEW SZN. I believe in that frenzied mustache more than any other team in this tier.

TIER IV — HANGING AROUND

14. Philadelphia Eagles 1–2 (8) 13. Seattle Seahawks 2–1 (13) 12. Chicago Bears 2–1 (14) 11. Indianapolis Colts 2–1 (17)

These rankings are from pre-Thursday night, where I was extremely worried about the Eagles. The injuries are mounting, and the defense looks very average. That win may have saved their season, for now.

Seattle and Chicago continue to be Seattle and Chicago. I’m not totally there yet on the Colts but it sure seems I was wrong to count them out after the Luck injury. The AFC South might be… the best division in the AFC?

TIER III — THE SLEEPER CONTENDERS

10. Houston Texans 2–1 (10) 9. New Orleans Saints 2–1 (9) 8. San Francisco 49ers 3–0 (12) 7. Minnesota Vikings 2–1 (7)

These four aren’t getting quite the buzz of some of the other teams, but I’ve got my eye on each of them as a sleeper contender to get to the conference championship game. All four could be undefeated.

The 49ers actually are, and they’re a little better than people are giving them credit for. The defense is coming around, and the offense has moved the ball with ease outside of the turnovers.

The Vikings look like the Vikings again but Kirk Cousins needs to show up for games like Sunday in Chicago. The Texans almost beat the Saints in Week 1, and both look good since. New Orleans mostly lucked into a huge road win in Seattle without Brees. Let’s see how they hold up against Dallas.

TIER II — A PRISTINE START

6. Baltimore Ravens 2–1 (5) 5. Green Bay Packers 3–0 (6) 4. Dallas Cowboys 3–0 (4) 3. Los Angeles Rams 3–0 (2)

You can’t ask for a much better start for these four — and remember, this is pre-Thursday night Packers game. The Ravens have the only other blemish on the list, and a one-score road loss in Kansas City is nothing to hang your head about. The Cowboys are flying high but haven’t played anyone yet. The Rams have looked much worse but notched three tough wins. It looks like one of those two is at the top of the NFC… for now.

TIER I — TOP OF THE HEAP

2. Kansas City Chiefs 3–0 (2) 1. New England Patriots 3–0 (1)

These two just seem a notch above everyone else right now, as seen by being a Week 4 touchdown favorites on the road against unbeaten teams. And it doesn’t look like either one will be failing a test anytime soon.

WEEK 4 PICKS

Washington +3.5 at New York Giants

The home team is only 6–6 in the last six seasons of this rivalry. I need to see more from Danny Dimes, especially without Saquon Barkley.

Tennessee +5 at Atlanta

The Falcons are 3–8 against the spread in their last 11 games, and I’m 0–3 on them this season. I have no idea what I think of either of these teams right now, and you never know which version will show up any given week. Let’s take the free five points.

Baltimore -5.5 vs Cleveland

The Ravens can put a stranglehold on the division, and they just look way better than the Browns right now, who beat a JV Jets team and embarrassed themselves in the other two games. Baltimore has won 18 of the last 21 games in this “rivalry” and there’s little reason to believe that changes this week.

Indianapolis -6.5 vs Oakland

The Colts have wins by 2 and 3 plus an overtime loss, all three of the against at least average teams. This team is starting to smell like one of those 9- or 10-win teams that grinds out wins without ever being a real threat, and Oakland is exactly the sort of team you grind out a win against.

Miami +17 vs Los Angeles Chargers

We’re sticking with history against these giant spreads. The Chargers are exactly the sort of team to screw around in a game like this, especially on a West-to-East trip and with a ton of team injuries.

Los Angeles Rams -9 vs Tampa Bay

If there’s one thing we now about Sean McVay’s Rams, it’s that they take care of bad teams in a big way. In the Rams’ six easiest games last season, they won by 14, 16, 20, 22, 29, and 34. The Bucs are improving but they’re still not good. Feels like a Rams blowout.

Seattle -4 at Arizona

This is a weirdly low number, considering one of these teams should make the playoffs and the other has no defense or offensive line. Arizona’s won only 4 of 13 in this series. Russell Wilson should do enough to win by more than a FG.

San Francisco -14.5 vs New York Jets

Just kidding, these two teams are on an early bye week, but that line feels about right, doesn’t it?

Chicago -2.5 vs Minnesota

Minnesota is the better team, but the home team has won 11 of the last 14 in this series — and also, Kirk Cousins. Cousins is 13–24–2 on the road in his career and a miserable 4–25 against winning teams. Prove me wrong, Kirk.

Jacksonville +3 at Denver

I had both these teams in my AFC playoffs, but Joe Flacco is no Gardner Minshew II. Take the under in this defensive battle, but keep riding the stache.

New Orleans +3 vs Dallas (Sunday night)

Before the season, this would have been something like Saints -5 or -6, right? Are we sure this has swung nine points in the other direction? Drew Brees is great, but he’s not worth 9 points. Dallas hasn’t played anyone real yet while the Saints are battle-tested after three tough games against the Texans, Rams, and Seahawks. Let’s see if the Cowboys are ready for this test.

Pittsburgh -3 vs Cincinnati (Monday night)

This is a Loser Goes Home battle with both teams 0–3, but in a potentially shaky AFC North, it could be an interesting battle between two teams that really don’t like each other, and two that look a lot different than the versions you know. Pittsburgh has won nine in a row against Cincinnati, and it feels like they have more to lose since they’re the one that believes they’re a playoff contender this year. Add in a roaring Monday night crowd and we’re set.

WEEK 4 BEST BETS

Kansas City -6 at Detroit

Look, if you continue to give me the Chiefs to win by under a touchdown, I’m going to keep taking them without even thinking twice. The Lions aren’t good.

Houston -4 vs Carolina

This line is flabbergasting, and even more shocking is the fact that it didn’t move an inch after Cam Newton was ruled out. We’re sure we’re in on the Kyle Allen experience after one game against an Arizona team that has no cornerbacks? We hadn’t even heard of this guy a week ago. Let’s see how he holds up against J.J. Watt. Carolina fans get a glimpse of the quarterback they always thought they had in Deshaun Watson. He’s a real one.

New England -7 at Buffalo

The Patriots have won 26 of 29 against Buffalo, and two of those losses were without Tom Brady. New England has won the last five matchups by 12, 19, 21, 20, and 16. Are these Bills really that different? Or are they exactly the sort of one-dimensional outdated offense Bill Belichick has dominated for two decades? If Buffalo makes a game of it, I may finally take them seriously. ■

Last week: 8–8 Season total: 24–24 Best bets: 6–3

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.