What 3–0 NFL Team Will Still Miss the Playoffs?

Seven NFL teams are flying high after a 3–0 start, but history says only 75% of them will make the playoffs. Which unbeaten teams are most at risk of falling out?

THERE’S NOTHING BETTER IN THE NFL THAN A 3–0 START. Every team can dream about the perfect start in July and August, but there’s a big difference between dreams and reality, and there is literally no possible better way to start your season than by winning the first three games. There’s just something clean and beautiful about a perfect 3–0 start.

Any 3–0 team’s fan base has already started to think about the playoffs, and for good reason. Historically speaking, 75% of all 3–0 teams make the playoffs — that’s 3 out of every 4! This year we have an impressive seven teams at 3–0: the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers.

But while 3 of 4 sounds nice for the 3, no one wants to be that 1. The math implies that 1.75 of those 7 teams will miss the playoffs. It’s often difficult to imagine a 3–0 team crashing out of the playoffs completely. But that’s exactly what happened to the 3–0 Dolphins just last year, and in 2016, the Broncos, Eagles, Ravens, and Vikings all started 3–0 and missed the playoffs.

In fact, that 75% success rate is dropping. Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams, 3–0 teams make the playoffs only 69.5% of the time. And since the start of the 2013 season, only 16 of 24 teams that started 3–0 went on to make the playoffs — just 66.7%. The success rate is moving in the wrong direction. Starting 3–0 is great, but it’s clearly no guarantee of making the playoffs.

History tells us several 3–0 teams could still be at risk. But which teams are in the most trouble? Last week, we gave hope to some 0–2 teams still dreaming of the playoffs. It’s time to dash a few dreams from teams living large on the other side of things.

Let’s start with the safest teams and go from there…

TIER I — SAFE AND SOUND

1. Los Angeles Rams

Normally we’d do lists like this in reverse order, but the top of the list is the least suspenseful here, so we’ll go in order. The Rams already look bound for the playoffs. They haven’t even played particularly well on offense yet but still picked up three tough wins at Carolina and Cleveland and home against a Brees-less Saints team. If the NFL made a top 25 rankings like college, the Rams would rank #1 with the best resume so far.

The Rams have a first-place schedule and play in a suddenly competitive NFC West. That means four games still against the 49ers and Seahawks, plus the Bears, Ravens, and Cowboys. That’s seven very losable games, and the Rams will certainly lose some of them. But they also get the Cardinals twice, plus the Bucs and Bengals, and the Rams haven’t blown the easy ones under Sean McVay. That’s 7 wins already, so even if they stumble through the tougher games a bit, 10 wins should be pretty easy.

The schedule also breaks kindly in L.A.’s favor. The Rams already got a boost from the Brees injury and another blown call going against the Saints. A road game against Pittsburgh should have been a tough midseason game but looks lighter now. So too an upcoming roadie in Atlanta.

A once daunting road schedule looks manageable now, especially the way this defense is playing with Aaron Donald dominating up front and a wonderful secondary behind him. The Rams are no longer as reliant on Todd Gurley, and it’s not like they’re relying on great play from Jared Goff. The system is god in Los Angeles, and that makes the Rams somewhat injury-proof too, comparatively speaking.

The Rams are the surest NFC playoff bet, and they’ve already been helped significantly by tough starts for New Orleans and Philly, two of the teams they are presumably battling for a 1-seed. The Rams are on the biggest playoff lock in football after three weeks.

TIER II — AS LONG AS THE QB STAYS HEALTHY

2. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs barely look like they’ve even broken a sweat so far. The Raiders hung around — for a quarter. The Ravens made it close late but were dominated most of the game. The Chiefs offense is just on another planet right now. Patrick Mahomes can do anything he wants, and it must be said that Andy Reid’s system is constantly getting speedy guys open deep so Mahomes can hit them.

It’s an offense-first league now, and the Chiefs have the best offense in football. And it’s not even close. Mahomes might throw 7 or 8 touchdowns sometime this season if the Chiefs actually have to try all four quarters.

As long as Mahomes stays healthy, this team looks set for a Super Bowl run. They’ve already lost two of their three best offensive weapons in Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams without even missing a beat. The Chiefs just run more speedy guys out there, let the system get them open, and Mahomes finds them. A lot. If anything, this offense might actually get better once Hill and Williams get healthy. Plus, the defense is improved. They’re still not great, but they look closer to average than bad, and the additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu have really helped.

Kansas City’s schedule is actually pretty daunting. They still have road trips against the Patriots, Chargers, Bears, and division rival Broncos, plus home games against the Packers, Vikings, Texans, Colts, and Bolts. The Chiefs could be favored in all of those but any one of them is losable if Mahomes can’t find the magic that day.

Still, the Chiefs look great, and they’re also already two games up in the division, so you probably need a Chargers sweep over K.C. to even start a conversation about Kansas City missing the playoffs. Kansas City is safe as long as their MVP doesn’t miss a month.

3. New England Patriots

The Patriots have been quite impressive so far. They’ve won by 30, 43, and 16, and none of those games have been as close as they look. New England has yet to allow a touchdown on defense. That’s impressive no matter who you face — even if two of the opponents are JV teams. It’s tough to know just how good the Pats are yet after wins against the Dolphins and Jets, and even the opening win against the Steelers looks less impressive in hindsight.

New England has already played two of its three easiest games on the schedule. Normally that would be red flag. But it’s the Patriots, and it’s not like the schedule suddenly gets a lot harder. New England travels to Buffalo this week — we’ll get back to them — before games against the Redskins, Giants, and Jets. Win this week and the Pats coast into the midpoint at 7–0. You don’t miss the playoffs after starting 7–0. And if it’s close late for some reason, three games against the Bengals, Bills, and Dolphins to end the season should do the trick.

Maybe it’s unfair to include the Bills on that list. They’re 3–0 too, after all. But Tom Brady is 30–3 lifetime against the Bills. That is a real stat. And unless he’s about to drop to 30–5, it’s really hard to see the Pats losing this division.

New England probably isn’t quite as invincible as they appear right now. And if they are to make another Super Bowl run this year, it’s starting to feel like it might be more like Peyton Manning’s last one in Denver, where the defense did all the heavy lifting and the offense did just enough. The Pats have already lost two key blockers for the season to injury, the run game stinks, and the WR corps is not what it looked like two weeks ago.

There’s one way the Patriots bottom out and miss the playoffs — if Tom Brady gets hurt right around Halloween and misses a bunch of games. You know all those easy games on the schedule we listed? In between, the Pats have a brutal stretch of Browns, at Ravens, at Philly, Dallas, at Texans, Chiefs. If Brady happens to be missing, or just look really old, in those games, things could turn in a hurry. It’s not like Jarrett Stidham can stand in. He got four snaps this week, throwing a terrible pick-6, before being benched so Brady could finish the blowout.

If Brady gets hurt or finally turns into a pumpkin, maybe things fall apart. But if the Pats take care of business in Buffalo this week, they should coast to yet another AFC first-round bye.

4. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have earned their 3–0 record against three really tough defenses, the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos. They won all three games by just one score but somehow managed to feel relatively comfortable in all three.

The Packers play in a brutal division, but they’ve already won two of their three toughest division games. Aaron Rodgers is 9–2 against the Bears at Lambeau and 13–5 against the Lions, so a healthy Rodgers gives Green Bay a big advantage going forward. Not exactly breaking news, I know.

The Packers still have those two Lions games plus the Raiders, Giants, and Redskins. That looks like 7 or 8 wins already. Green Bay came into the season with three daunting back-to-backs. They already survived Bears-Vikings 2–0. Tonight they play the Eagles and then head to Dallas. In a month, they have back-to-back road games against the Chiefs and Chargers. If they go 0–4 in those remaining games, things could get dicey.

But you don’t go 0–4 in big games with a healthy Rodgers. Green Bay hasn’t even been that great yet. The defense has been much improved, though against mediocre quarterback play. The offense has barely gotten going, still adjusting to Matt LaFleur’s new system. But that’s all good news for Green Bay. The Packers are 3–0 against a tough schedule and should actually get better. They look like they could contend for an NFC bye. As long as they keep Rodgers healthy this time.

TIER III — AIN’T PLAYED NO ONE YET

5. Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are 3–0! Of course they’re 3–0 against the Jets, Giants, and Bills, a whopping 1–8 between them. Buffalo has yet to leave their home state (New Jersey doesn’t count), and they could very well have lost to both the Jets and Bengals.

But you know what? At some point, you have to give credit where it’s due, and this team has built a formula that is simple but works. They play really good defense. They play it safe on offense. And they believe Josh Allen can get the job done late — and so far he has. I’m still not a believer. But I’m starting to pay attention.

The Bills have three easy wins, but there are plenty more to come. They still get the Jets at home, and they have two games left against the Dolphins. They’re also home for the Redskins and Broncos. Buffalo might be a touchdown favorite in all of those games. That’s 8 wins!!

And it might not take much more than that in the AFC. Who else is winning the wildcard spots? You figure the AFC South may get one of them. But who else is in the running? The Steelers and Broncos might have contended, but they’re both 0–3. The Jets season is over. Only the Chargers and Browns make sense right now for that last wildcard spot, and they’re both 1–2 and look extremely flawed. Buffalo is already two games ahead of each and with a far easier remaining schedule. Plus, the AFC East is theirs if something happens to the Patriots.

I’m still not buying the Bills as an elite team or as a playoff threat. We’ve seen this formula before. Defense and just enough offense can get you to the playoffs but it almost never gets the job done there, not when you have to beat high-flying offenses and elite coaches. But there’s a difference between making the playoffs and mattering once you get there. And it’s starting to look like Buffalo has a very good chance of making the playoffs.

A win against the Patriots Sunday would increase their chances dramatically. If not, they need to take care of all of these easy wins and get the job done early. Buffalo plays the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots in a brutal four-week stretch Weeks 13 to 16, with three of those four on the road. Unless Buffalo is at least 8–3 entering that stretch, it’s going to be a fight to the finish.

Still, the Bills have a very good chance of making the playoffs at this point. It’s time to accept that reality.

6. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are flying high, and you can make a case for them as the best team in the NFC. Kellen Moore’s system has really opened up this offense, and Dak Prescott looks like an early MVP sleeper if he keeps slinging the ball all over the field. Amari Cooper is making plays, and the Ezekiel Elliott train is just starting to leave the station. Add in a talented defense and a two-game head start on the NFC East, and the Super Bowl aspirations are real.

Plus, America’s Team is catching all the breaks. Sunday night’s trip to New Orleans got a lot less daunting with Drew Brees watching from the sidelines, and they’ll probably get to play a Jets team without Sam Darnold in three weeks too. They already got the Giants and Redskins before both turned to their talented rookie quarterbacks. That’s a lot of QB luck.

It’s also at least a little reason for concern. Dallas has already played three of its four easiest games. Going 3–0 against the Giants, Skins, and Dolphins tells us almost nothing. Dallas still has to play Philadelphia twice, the entire NFC North, the Rams, and the Patriots. They have eight games left against teams currently over .500 — and that doesn’t count the 1–2 Eagles.

Those Eagles games are the key. Barring a Daniel Jones miracle, only Philly can keep the Cowboys from winning the division. And since the Eagles could be 1–3 tonight, they’ll probably need to sweep Dallas to take the division.

This next month will tell us a lot about Dallas. Can they take care of business in New Orleans on Sunday night? Can they get home games against the Packers and Eagles? Dallas has always played hot and cold under Jason Garrett. What if this team peaked too early and tricked everyone into believing after blowing out three of the worst five teams in the league?

Don’t count Dallas into the playoffs just yet. There’s still a very real path to yet another 8–8 or 9–7 Jason Garrett specialty.

7. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are the 3–0 team most likely to miss the playoffs. And that hurts, because I’m really starting to buy into this team. I actually think you can make the case for the 49ers as a top-5 team right now. The defense has improved with each passing week, and the offense is really moving the ball a lot under Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan.

The 49ers barely escaped the Big Ben-less Steelers last week 24–20, but it was a much more impressive win than you think. San Francisco had butter fingers all game, turning the ball over five times with terrible fumble luck. According to Sports Reference, NFL teams are 25–322–1 this century when turning the ball over 5+ times. They win only 7.2% of the time, approximately 1-in-14 times. That the 49ers won against a desperate Steelers team with the season on the line despite five turnovers is actually quite remarkable.

San Francisco is 3–0 against teams that are a combined 1–8, the lone win coming from the Bucs beating an injured Cam Newton on a Thursday night. They’ve played three of their easiest six games already, thanks to the Big Ben injury. The 49ers still have to play four games against the Rams and Seahawks. They still face the Ravens and Browns and the three toughest NFC South teams.

As soft as the schedule has started, it’s a brutal closing stretch. Check out the final six games: Green Bay, at Baltimore, at New Orleans, Atlanta, the Rams, and at Seattle. All six of those teams could be fighting for a playoff spot, and three of them may be pushing for a bye. And as good as the Rams look right now, it still feels like the only 49ers path to the playoffs is a wildcard spot.

The 49ers are moving the ball, and the defense looks improved, but we’re going to need to see them move the ball against a good or even average defense, and the Bucs, Bengals, and Steelers don’t necessarily qualify. We need to see the defense against a good or even average quarterback. We need to see if the talent holds up. The 49ers still have nine games against teams with as much or more talent.

They look good right now, and they’re guaranteed to stay unbeaten another week thanks to an early bye. But as good as the 49ers have been so far, they’re going to have to be even better to keep this up and make the playoffs.

TIER IV— THE LIONS DON’T COUNT

8. Detroit Lions

The Lions are unbeaten but not 3–0, so the stat doesn’t apply to them at 2–0–1, and that tie is closer to a loss in the NFC. The Lions are still the worst team in the NFC North, and the upcoming schedule is pretty rough. Detroit continues to be more average than bad, but check back after a month against the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings and there’s a good chance no one will even remember this unbeaten start. The Lions don’t really count.

BONUS — Thursday night pick

Green Bay -4 vs Philadelphia

The Eagles were my preseason Super Bowl pick, and I’m not giving up yet, but it’s not looking good. Philadelphia is 1–2 and has looked downright bad in the first half of three straight games against average-at-best opponents. Like last season, Philly has racked up injuries. The OL and WRs are especially banged up, and an early short week won’t help.

Doug Pederson might be 4–0 Thursdays with the Eagles, but Aaron Rodgers is 9–4 in Thursday national TV games with 27 TDs and only 4 interceptions. Philly is getting little pass rush, and their corners have been awful. It feels like this could be a breakout game for Rodgers and this Packers offense.

Philly is 1–2 and plays four of their next five on the road against the Packers, Cowboys, Vikings, and Bills. They badly need to steal a game like this one, or it could get late early for these Eagles. I’ve always said Carson Wentz reminded me more of Aaron Rodgers than anyone I’ve ever seen. He’ll need to do his best Rodgers impression tonight if the Eagles want to steal this one. ■

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