Week 7 NFL Picks against the Spread
Three huge division battles highlight the Sunday slate, but the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams are Week 7 best bets…
OFFICIATING WAS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE NFL THIS WEEK AFTER A SKETCHY PACKERS “WIN” AGAINST THE LIONS. Not like it’s the first time Detroit has been screwed by the refs. The more rules and reviews we add, the shakier the NFL rule book gets, and it feels like it’ll get worse before it gets better. Week 6 also saw the 49ers stay unbeaten against the Rams, while the Jets shocked the Cowboys for their first win of the season, sending both Dallas and L.A. to a three-game losing streak.
Still, the NFC continues to be a level above the AFC, with 12 of the top 17 teams in our Week 7 Power Rankings. We slogged through a 6–8 record against the spread last week and sit right around .500 for the season, but maybe we can grab some momentum after another Thursday night win. Let’s run through a quick Power Rankings and make some Week 7 picks…
Week 7 Power Rankings
TIER I — THE DYNASTY
1. New England Patriots 6–0 (1)
TIER II — THE BEST OF THE NFC
2. San Francisco 49ers 5–0 (3) 3. New Orleans Saints 5–1 (4)
TIER III — WE COULD REALLY MAKE A RUN
4. Houston Texans 4–2 (12) 5. Kansas City Chiefs 4–2 (2) 6. Seattle Seahawks 5–1 (7) 7. Green Bay Packers 5–1* (6) 8. Minnesota Vikings 4–2 (11) 9. Buffalo Bills 4–1 (10)
TIER IV — WE NEED TO GET HEALTHY
10. Indianapolis Colts 3–2 (13) 11. Philadelphia Eagles 3–3 (8) 12. Carolina Panthers 4–2 (16) 13. Baltimore Ravens 4–2 (15)
TIER V — IT’S GETTING LATE EARLY
14. Los Angeles Rams 3–3 (8) 15. Dallas Cowboys 3–3 (9) 16. Detroit Lions 2–2–1 (16) 17. Chicago Bears 3–2 (17)
TIER VI — HANGING AROUND
18. Oakland Raiders 3–2 (20) 19. Jacksonville Jaguars 2–4 (18) 20. Cleveland Browns 2–4 (21) 21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2–4 (19)
TIER VII — BEHOLD! A RAY OF HOPE
22. Denver Broncos 2–4 (24) 23. Arizona Cardinals 2–3–1 (27) 24. Pittsburgh Steelers 2–4 (28) 25. New York Jets 1–4 (30)
TIER VIII — IT WASN’T SUPPOSED TO BE THIS WAY
26. Los Angeles Chargers 2–4 (22) 27. New York Giants 2–4 (25) 28. Tennessee Titans 2–4 (23) 29. Atlanta Falcons 1–5 (26)
TIER IX — THE FISH TANK
30. Washington Haskins 1–5 (31) 31. Cincinnati Bengals 0–6 (29) 32. Miami Dolphins 0–5 (32)
Week 7 ATS Picks
Kansas City -3 at Denver (Thursday)
I don’t want to talk about it.
THE STAY AWAYS
Jacksonville -3 at Cincinnati
Minshew Mania! Gardner Minshew has lost two in a row, but the Jags have had a brutal schedule thus far with losses to the Chiefs, Texans, Panthers, and Saints. They may not play another playoff team this season outside of their division. Don’t give up on this team yet, and do take them against a miserable Bengals team.
Arizona +3 at New York Giants
This one might be more interesting in a year or two when Kyler and Danny Dukes have a little more help, though both Saquon Barkley and Patrick Peterson are back this week, so that’s a good start. Arizona is quietly playing solid football and can get to .500 with a win. It doesn’t matter in the loaded NFC, but Kyler is starting to figure things out and the Kingsbury partnership is working.
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 at Tennessee
Two of the more baffling, inconsistent, awful teams. The Chargers have been worse overall, so the Titans are favored a week after not being able to score a single point against a Denver team that went winless in September. Marcus Mariota isn’t the answer, but Ryan Tannehill ain’t either. If the Chargers win this, they’re only two games back from a Mahomes-less Chiefs team. If they can figure things out, there’s a real chance they could be leading the division by the time he’s back.
THE BIG AFC EAST FAVORITES
Buffalo -16.5 vs Miami
I would never have guessed Josh Allen would be a 16.5-point favorite this season, let alone that I’d take him. This game features the worst offense, defense, and special teams in football — Buffalo for the latter and Miami for the other two. The Bills defense is rested and awesome, and it will be a miracle if the Dolphins even hit double digits.
New York Jets +10 vs New England (Monday)
This line seems to think last week’s Jets win was a fluke, but this is a different team with Sam Darnold. New York has a good defense, and the Pats offense is awfully vanilla for a 6–0 team. Tom Brady is 28–6 lifetime against the Jets, and New England has won 15 of 17 against them. But we’re going with history here, and history says double-digit home Monday night underdogs are 11–3 against the spread the last three decades, with 11 of the 14 games staying within one score and four won outright by the dog. Nothing beats a raucous Monday night crowd playing for a bad team’s Super Bowl.
NFC NORTH FATALISM
Detroit +1.5 vs Minnesota
As a Vikings fan, I’ve just come to grips with the refs completely giving wins to the Packers (last week) and Bears (Week 2 vs Denver) while screwing us at every opportunity (how did we get scheduled on the road against all three division opponents in the first seven weeks?!). There’s a sense of fatalism as a Minnesota sports fan. The worst that can happen will in fact happen. Kirk Cousins was bad but now he’s good again, but this feels like another bad one against a Lions defense that has confused Rodgers and Mahomes. These teams have split 18 games this decade, 11 of them by one score, so it should be close. And unfortunately, I know which QB I’ll take in a close, late game.
Green Bay -4.5 vs Oakland
The Raiders are sneaky interesting now that they’re more average than bad, and they are coming off a bye week versus a short week for the Packers after their win* against the Lions. Oakland keeps it close all game and gives opposing NFC North fans hope, then Aaron Rodgers picks one lucky fan from the crowd and throws him a late, game-winning TD after the refs tackle both defenders and do the Lambeau Leap in celebration.
Chicago -4 vs New Orleans
This line is practically begging you to take the 5–1 Saints, so that’s how you know this smells fishy. Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara are out, and even worse, Mitch Trubisky is back. I’m actually physically attending this game, so I’m expecting the worst Bearsiest win possible. Neither offense scores all game but the Bears win 14–9 on two defensive touchdowns.
THE BIG DIVISION TOSS UPS
Philadelphia +3 at Dallas (Sunday night)
These teams have combined to beat Washington (x2), New York (x2), Miami, and Detroit while getting dominated by any good team. They’re also responsible for the only win from the otherwise 0–9 Falcons and Jets. The NFC East, everyone! A Dallas loss sends them to the bye week on a four-game losing streak and a code-red national crisis. These games are always close and often wonky. Philly’s run D is good, so Dak will have to beat the bad Eagles corners, and he’ll have to do it without Amari Cooper. Both teams are banged up and desperate for a win. I have no idea, and neither do you.
Houston +1.5 at Indianapolis
Suddenly, the winner of this game looks like they might be the second best team in the AFC. Life comes at you fast. Indy has dominated Houston historically, winning 27 of 35, but Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck ain’t walking through that door. Both teams are coming off dominant wins against the Chiefs. Houston’s looks more replicable. Deshaun Watson may be the second best quarterback in the NFL right now, and Houston has the better weapons and the stronger defense. A Texans win puts them on a path to the AFC 2-seed.
WEEK 7 BEST BETS
Los Angeles Rams -3 at Atlanta
The Rams have certainly struggled of late, and even with all the QB injuries, Jared Goff still might not be a top-20 NFL quarterback right now. Hey, you know what fixes quarterbacks in a hurry? The pathetic Falcons pass defense. Atlanta is 1–5 and may be an underdog in every remaining game. How did this happen? Feels like a get-right game for this Rams offense.
Seattle -3 vs Baltimore
A classic Seahawks-Ravens matchup, aka a ton of defense and a low-scoring game, right? Not this season. Seattle and Baltimore have top-5 offenses but rank in the bottom half of the league on D. These teams are winning with QB play, and Russell Wilson is the MVP through six weeks. Seattle is at home with the better QB, and Pete Carroll will have something special dialed up defensively against Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are overrated right now. They’re 4–2 but every opponent but the Chiefs has 2 wins or fewer. Now the schedule flips, with the Seahawks, Pats, Texans, Rams, 49ers, and Bills among their next seven games. The AFC North could be wide open.
San Francisco -9.5 at Washington
Not sure what we’re doing here. The 49ers have arguably been the best team in football, and Washington dang near lost to the Dolphins. This is a top-3 defense against a bottom-3 offense, and there will probably be more 49ers fans than Skins fans at the game. This line should be a full touchdown higher. UPDATE: Monsoon means no more best bet status here. Let’s take Washington to keep it close in the mess. ■
Last week: 6–8 Season total: 45–46–1 Best bets: 8–9–1
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