College Football Top 25 Power Rankings at the Season’s Midpoint
Halfway through the NCAA season, which teams stand out, and what does the CFP playoff picture look like going forward?
AFTER A WILD WEEKEND OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL, WE HAVE REACHED THE MIDPOINT OF THE 2019 NCAA SEASON. Oklahoma outlasted Texas in the Red River Shootout, LSU added another impressive victory over Florida, and Georgia was shocked at home by unranked South Carolina in the biggest upset of the season thus far.
Most teams have played six games now, which means we’re already halfway to the College Football Playoff announcement in December. So which four teams are in best position to make the CFP, and how does everyone else fit into the College Football Top 25 Power Rankings at the season’s midpoint?
TIER VI — THE TURNSTILES
25. James Madison 6–1 (Last week: NR) 24. Cincinnati 5–1 (NR) 23. Missouri 5–1 (NR) 22. Arizona State 5–1 (NR)
These bottom spots are so silly. We should just do a Top 15 and be done with it. But 25 is a nicer, rounder number so, sure! Let’s recognize some teams.
It feels like we’re still a week away from welcoming a bunch of two-loss teams back into the Top 25. Those are basically the next in line, teams like Iowa, UCF, Washington, and Virginia. Meh. Wake Forest is probably more deserving, even after giving up approximately 7 million points at home to Louisville.
Instead, let’s give James Madison some shine after going to one of two unbeaten FCS teams and beating Villanova by two TDs. They also own the second most recent win against the other unbeaten, North Dakota State — of course, that win came all the way back in 2016. The Dukes won the FCS championship that season, lost to the Bison in the title game the next year, and might be on their way to a threematch this winter.
Missouri is the forgotten SEC team, quite literally since it’s still impossible to remember the Tigers are actually in the SEC. Their opening week loss at Wyoming doesn’t look so terrible, and they haven’t lost since. Cincinnati got blanked at Ohio State but has won the rest of their games, including one against UCF. And Arizona State is back in the Top 25 for one week before an inevitable loss at Utah on Saturday.
TIER V — THE HILARIOUS UNBEATENS
21. Appalachian State 5–0 (25) 20. SMU 6–0 (19) 19. Michigan 5–1 (17) 18. Minnesota 6–0 (23) 17. Baylor 6–0 (20)
Everyone had Baylor, Minnesota, SMU, and Appalachian State among their final 11 unbeaten teams, right?
“AP” finally stands for App State, but they’ve been a deserving Top 25 team for weeks. The class of the Sun Belt, they hit the road and knocked off Louisiana, the clear conference #2. Minnesota needed four fourth-quarter comebacks to start the season but blew out Illinois and Nebraska the last two weeks.
SMU and Baylor are twin death penalty schools. SMU football got the death penalty in 1985, and Baylor’s entire athletic program should’ve gotten it a few years ago. Instead, here they both are, undefeated.
So which of the four will last the longest? It probably won’t be SMU. They get Temple, Houston, and Memphis the next three weeks, all tough AAC opponents. It won’t be Baylor either. They’re an underdog at Oklahoma State this week, and the Big 12 schedule only gets harder from there.
Appalachian State hosts Louisiana-Monroe this Saturday, and the Warhawks came one point from a road win at Florida State in September. If App State survives, they may get to 9–0 before a November 9 visit to South Carolina, the team that just knocked off Georgia.
As for Minnesota, they look clear until November 9, too. They visit Rutgers this week, whose QB Johnny Langan threw 13 times for 1 yard against Indiana Saturday and added 13 runs for 3 yards. Guess he should’ve run more. After Rutgers, Minnesota has Maryland and a week off before hosting Penn State on Nov 9. That could be a Top-10 battle by then.
As for Michigan? They obviously don’t belong in a tier of hilarious unbeatens, but it’s hilarious to rank them with the rest of these schools anyway.
TIER IV — THE NOT-QUITE-PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
16. Utah 5–1 (14) 15. Boise State 6–0 (16) 14. Texas 4–2 (11) 13. NDSU 6–0 (15)
These teams are all really good, good enough to hang with any of the 12 above them any given week, but they may not have the juice to make an actual CFP run.
Texas has played LSU and Oklahoma even. That’s two of the top three teams (spoiler!), and they had a chance to win both. Alas, they didn’t, and two losses are the end. Utah has a decent chance of going 12–1 in the PAC 12 without anyone even noticing. Boise State looks well on their way to being this year’s UCF and whining about an unblemished record that gets overlooked in the playoff race. It’s power-five or bust. We know this.
And yes, NDSU would play any of these teams dead even and have every chance to win, and I’ll never believe otherwise. Freshman QB Trey Lance may even find himself on the fringe of the Heisman race if he keeps up this production against almost all Top 25 teams.
TIER III — GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
12. Oregon 5–1 (12) 11. Notre Dame 5–1 (13) 10. Georgia 5–1 (3) 9. Auburn 5–1 (10) 8. Florida 6–1 (4)
Everyone has moved on from these five, but they’re all still alive in the CFP race. One loss hardly dooms a team, and an earlier loss is always better. There’s a better chance than not that one of these teams makes the playoff.
What’s fascinating is how set the order of these teams is right now. Florida has to be first. They have the least bad loss, at LSU. They also have arguably the best win over Auburn. Auburn and Georgia are next, each with one impressive win, and Auburn’s loss at Florida was not nearly as damaging as Georgia’s home loss to unranked South Carolina. And of course, the teams they beat for their one big win were Oregon and Notre Dame, who round out the tier.
Florida beat Auburn. Auburn beat Oregon. Georgia beat Notre Dame. Rarely do tiers sort themselves out so nicely at this point.
So which team has the best chance of getting back into the playoff picture?
The Irish would be my pick. Their next game is their toughest remaining, at Michigan. That’s almost certainly their last ranked opponent, and Notre Dame doesn’t have the threat of a looming conference championship and should have a pretty quality strength of schedule. If they win out, they should end up ranked in the 3 to 6 range, depending on how other teams finish.
Florida is the next most likely. They have only one really tough game left, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Georgia. They might not face another ranked opponent until the SEC championship, when they’d have to beat Alabama or LSU.
That’s not exactly likely, but it’s better than the other three teams’ paths. Georgia has that Florida game plus a trip to Auburn before an SEC title game. Auburn has that Georgia visit plus games against LSU and Alabama, plus Florida or Georgia again in the SEC title game. Oregon still has road trips to Washington, USC, and Arizona State along with a PAC-12 title game. If Georgia, Auburn, or Oregon make the CFP, they’ll have earned it.
TIER II — THE TITLE CONTENDERS
7. Alabama 6–0 (8) 6. Penn State 6–0 (6) 5. Wisconsin 6–0 (7) 4. Ohio State 6–0 (5) 3. Oklahoma 6–0 (9)
Honestly, I disagree on the order, too. There are plenty of criteria you can choose. Emphasize one slightly more and the whole thing shifts around. I don’t care enough to argue it yet at the midpoint. This stuff will sort itself out.
Oklahoma has the biggest win, dominating Texas statistically. None of the other four have a particularly great win. Ohio State feels most impressive. Wisconsin has the only other Top 25 win, against Michigan. Penn State and Alabama haven’t beaten anyone of particular note, but taking care of business on the road against conference foes like Maryland, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas A&M is tougher than we usually give credit for.
Penn State has the toughest hill to climb. They still play Michigan and travel to Minnesota and Ohio State before a potential Big Ten championship against Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions probably have to remain perfect to make the CFP. The Buckeyes have a pretty tough road themselves. They host Wisconsin and Penn State and finish at the Big House. They could theoretically survive a loss and win a Big 10 championship against Wisconsin and still get in, but lose to PSU or Michigan and they may not get the chance.
Wisconsin has an easier path, thanks to playing in the weaker half of the Big 10. They don’t have to play Penn State or Michigan. They travel to Columbus in two weeks, and even if they don’t beat the Buckeyes, win out and they should get a shot at a rematch in the Big Ten title game. They may essentially get two chances to beat the Ohio State.
Alabama actually has a relatively easy schedule this year. They don’t have to play Georgia, Florida, or Missouri and should end the regular season with only two Top 25 opponents: LSU and the finale at Auburn. Even if they lose one, they may still make the CFP, and a loss could even help them if they go 11–1 and avoid an SEC Championship Game.
As for Oklahoma, they’ve got one foot in the CFP already. They may not even face a ranked opponent until a potential Texas rematch in the Big 12 title game. Their toughest games left are visits to Kansas State and Baylor, and the Sooners have the talent to take care of those games with ease. Even if they lose one, they’d have a pretty good CFP chance at 12–1.
TIER I — THE MIGHTY, MIGHTY TIGERS
2. LSU 6–0 (2) 1. Clemson 6–0 (1)
I’ve staunchly kept Clemson atop the rankings. As the defending national champ that returned most of their team, they’re #1 until proven otherwise. But they have been far from impressive. Outside of that criterion, Clemson’s more like #7 than #1. They have a real chance of finishing 13–0 without a single win against a ranked opponent. There’s no other ACC team in this week’s Top 25. Wake Forest just missed. Louisville is probably next best, and they host Clemson this Saturday. Unless the Tigers stumble, they should coast into the playoff.
LSU, of course, has the far more impressive resume. They’re a deserving #1 almost any way you slice it, with wins over both Florida and Texas, maybe the two single most impressive wins by any contender. LSU has been the best team in college football at the season’s midpoint. Too bad they don’t give out awards for that… ■
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs Utah Sugar Bowl: Texas vs Georgia Orange Bowl: Louisville vs LSU Cotton Bowl: Boise State vs Notre Dame
College Football Playoff
#1 Alabama vs #4 Clemson #2 Ohio State vs #3 Oklahoma
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