Week 8 NFL picks against the spread

Everything else is just an appetizer for the Minneapolis Miracle redux, but let’s make some picks anyway

I was watching alone in my apartment, like I would any big Vikings game. It looked like the end of a super fun albeit surprising season. Minnesota had been good, but Drew Brees was Drew Brees and we were down to our last ten seconds. We needed a miracle.

His name was Marcus Williams.

I yelped when Stefon Diggs caught the pass and turned upfield. I think we all thought he was about to get tackled inbounds and run out the clock. It took a second before I realized it was wide open green. I screamed and ran a couple laps around the apartment, jumping and pounding on the walls before reality set in. There would be a flag. Diggs would have stepped out of bounds. The NFL would have changed its rules so the game ends exactly at 0:00 and Diggs would be down at the one and our season would be over.

But it wasn’t. We won. The Minnesota Vikings won.

It was the greatest footballing moment of my life — shut up, we don’t have many options — and I ran out barefoot into the snow and started making snow angels. I lost my voice for almost a full week. It was worth it.

The Saints return to Minnesota Sunday night, and everything else is an appetizer. I hope we win. I think we will. But even if we don’t, they’ll show that replay 500 times and I’ll see it on the back of my eyelids another 10,000. We’ll always have the Minneapolis Miracle.

It’s Week 8. Let’s make some picks.

The stay aways

Miami +7.5 at Houston (Thursday)

It’s the Lamar Miller revenge game! Or the Brock Osweiler revenge game! Or the J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus and all those other talented Texans players who lost years of their prime to Brock Osweiler revenge game! Miami started 3–0 but won one of four since, and they’re missing their QB and top three WRs. Houston began 0–3 but has reeled off four straight unconvincing wins over the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, and Jaguars. Houston’s defense has good numbers, but look at the teams they’ve been playing. It honestly feels like any outcome is possible in this one, so take the points and Osweiler. *gulp*

Arizona PK vs San Francisco

The NFL robbed us of a classic Thursday night matchup between two 1–6 teams already fighting for nothing but draft position in October. Both have been better than they seem. The 49ers have had a fighting chance in every game except against the Rams, and the Cardinals defense has been stout while rookie QB Josh Rosen has been solid in all but one game. Arizona has won seven in a row in this division rivalry and just won by 10 in San Francisco a few weeks ago. The offense should get a jolt turning things over to new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and, hopefully, more David Johnson.

New York Jets +8.5 at Chicago

I’m losing a little belief in this Bears team, whose defense has taken a bit of a step back with Khalil Mack banged up. The offense has made up for it in unconventional ways, using Mitch Trubisky as a runner and Tarik Cohen as a receiver, but there’s some smoke and mirrors to what Trubisky is doing. The Bears have allowed the seventh most passing TDs, so this defense is not as dominant as you might think. I like the Bears to win, but that extra half-point is just enough to believe in the Jets keeping it close.

Bet against chaos

Indianapolis -3 at Oakland

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Raiders are a mess. They’ve traded away their most gifted player on offense and defense, and Derek Carr could be next. The Colts are coming off a win against the Bills, which is almost as good as a bye week, and they seem to have found a running game in a surprisingly proficient offense, scoring 27 ppg. Don’t look now, but the colts don’t leave home in November and have a super easy closing schedule. If they win games like this, they could still contend in a wide open division.

Cleveland +8 at Pittsburgh

So much for LeVeon Bell coming back during the bye week. Pittsburgh continues to be a hot mess, but nothing fixes a Steelers lull like a Browns game. Cleveland has won just 4 of its last 37 games against Pittsburgh. Woof. However, the last four matchups have been within four points, and so have six of the seven Browns games this season. Cleveland’s defense is legit, and the offense is starting to figure things out. Bet on the Browns keeping it close.

Washington -1 vs New York Giants

Here’s a little food for thought: the Giants just traded away an Apple and Snacks for mere peanuts. New York is trying to rebuild amidst another lost season, and you have to wonder if Eli Manning could be next. The G-Men are awful, but they have four one-score losses and have won eight of ten at home in this rivalry. Washington hasn’t played much of a schedule and continues to look underwhelming. My preseason preview of Washington was that “the Redskins look like what you’d get if you tried to build the most forgettable, most likely-to-finish-.500 team possible.” And then I saw found this GIF.

Are any of these teams actually good?

Seattle +3 at Detroit

The six teams in this section are all vaguely in the playoff conversation, but are any of them actually good? Both these teams are 3–3, but Seattle’s three wins are against the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Raiders while the Lions have beaten the Patriots, Packers, and Dolphins. Both are coming off a bye, and both sport poor run defenses and strong passing Ds. Seattle has been much worse on the road, and Detroit seems to have found a power run game with Kerryon Johnson, but the Lions look a bit smoke and mirrors with an overachieving pass defense and a bottom-five DVOA. I don’t believe Seattle is good, but I still do believe Detroit isn’t.

Philadelphia -3 vs Jacksonville (Sunday morning in London)

The Jaguars have lost four of five. They’ve scored only three TDs in those losses, two of them in garbage time, with an offense that might be worse than ever under Blake Bortles, and that is certainly saying something. The Eagles haven’t quite found last year’s mojo but the talent is still all there. Their pass defense is vulnerable, but maybe not to Bortles. One of these teams will exhale heading into its bye week, escaping with a 4–4 first half. The loser will find their once-promising season on life support.

Carolina +2 vs Baltimore

This is the biggest WTF line of the week. I projected Carolina as a 4-point home favorite, and instead they’re 2-point dogs, almost a full touchdown swing. Both teams are coming off shock results last week, with the Panthers coming back down 17–0 in the fourth quarter to steal a win while the Ravens stole defeat from the jaws of victory with Justin Tucker’s first missed extra point ever. The Ravens have the best defense in football with only 14 ppg, and it feels like they should handle this predictable Panthers attack. All my reads on this game scream Baltimore. But Carolina has won eight home games in a row, and I trust my initial read and the 6-point margin on the line.

Early NFC playoff games

Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs Green Bay

The Rams have been awesome and even better at home, where they’re scoring 36 ppg. They’re putting up points on everyone, and even Aaron Rodgers may not be able to keep up in a shootout with this team. The Packers have exactly one legit win this season and it was against the Bills, and they now play the Rams, Pats, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Vikings over the next month, with all but Miami on the road. Brutal. Could this finally be the beginning of the end for the Mike McCarthy regime? Let’s hope not.

Minnesota +2 vs New Orleans

Please. We still got Stefon Diggs.

Week 8 best bets

New England -13.5 at Buffalo (Monday)

How high would they have to set this line before you felt good about putting your money on Derek Anderson, Chris Ivory, and the Bills? 20? 24? Buffalo has scored two offensive touchdowns in four games, and the Patriots have won 26 of the last 29 matchups (one loss with Jacoby Brissett, and one meaningless Week 17 game). New England would’ve covered this line in 10 of their last 14 trips to Buffalo. Make alternate Monday night plans.

Cincinnati -3 vs Tampa Bay

These are my best and worst teams against the spread so far this season, so something’s gotta give. I’m a perfect 7–0 picking Bengals games but only 1–5 on Bucs picks, though the one was last week. Tampa is still getting demolished with a historically bad pass defense, and this year’s Cincinnati offense is good enough to punish them. They’re on a two game losing streak but that was just a pair of tough opponents that had their number. This would be a very smart time to buy low on Bengals players in fantasy football.

Kansas City -9 vs Denver

The Chiefs have won six straight in this rivalry. They needed two late TDs a month ago in Denver to keep the streak alive, but the home wins have come by double digits, and that was before Patrick Mahomes. Denver was a couple late finishes away from an 0–6 start, and the Chiefs put up points in a hurry.

Week 7 record: 7–7 Season record: 51–52–4 Best bets: 9–9–2 Locks: 2–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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