Week 8 NFL Picks against the Spread

An odd week with only two games pitting winning teams, with the Seahawks, Lions, and Rams as Week 8 best bets…

CAN YOU BELIEVE WE ARE ALREADY AT WEEK 8 IN THE NFL? Week 8 means the 2019 NFL regular season is already almost halfway over, and sure enough, the next games will be played in November. It’s a bit of an odd week around the NFL, with not a single divisional game on the schedule.

We also have only two games on the entire slate matching winning teams, and one of those teams is missing Patrick Mahomes. What I’m trying to say is October is a busy sports season and you’re forgiven if you need to duck out this week or turn your attention to NBA, MLS playoffs, or World Series.

We hung in there at 6–8 last week and are still just below .500 on the season, probably not great considering I just started a new gig at The Action Network this week. But the good news is now you can pay to get all my bad gambling tips over there too! You’re welcome. Let’s make some picks.

Week 8 Power Rankings

TIER I — YOU KNOW WHO

1. New England Patriots 7–0 (1)

TIER II — THE NFC GIANTS

2. San Francisco 49ers 6–0 (2) 3. New Orleans Saints 6–1 (3)

TIER III — SURGING AHEAD

4. Green Bay Packers 6–1 (7) 5. Minnesota Vikings 5–2 (8) 6. Indianapolis Colts 4–2 (10) 7. Kansas City Chiefs 5–2 (5) 8. Buffalo Bills 5–1 (9)

TIER IV — SMELLS LIKE PLAYOFFS

9. Baltimore Ravens 5–2 (13) 10. Houston Texans 4–3 (4) 11. Dallas Cowboys 4–3 (15) 12. Seattle Seahawks 5–2 (6) 13. Los Angeles Rams 4–3 (14) 14. Carolina Panthers 4–2 (12)

TIER V — THE LURKERS

15. Jacksonville Jaguars 3–4 (19) 16. Philadelphia Eagles 3–4 (11) 17. Cleveland Browns 2–4 (20) 18. Arizona Cardinals 3–3–1 (23)

TIER VI — NOT THEIR YEAR

19. Detroit Lions 2–3–1 (16) 20. Chicago Bears 3–4 (17) 21. Oakland Raiders 3–4 (18) 22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3–4 (21)

TIER VII — ON LIFE SUPPORT

23. Tennessee Titans 3–4 (28) 24. Pittsburgh Steelers 2–4 (24) 25. Los Angeles Chargers 2–5 (26) 26. New York Giants 2–5 (27) 27. Denver Broncos 2–5 (22) 28. New York Jets 1–5 (25)

TIER VIII — THE FISH TANK

29. Atlanta Falcons 1–6 (29) 30. Washington Haskins 1–6 (30) 31. Cincinnati Bengals 0–7 (31) 32. Miami Dolphins 0–6 (32)

THURSDAY NIGHT

Washington +16.5 at Minnesota

Sometimes all that Minnesota skepticism comes in handy.

THE STAY AWAYS

Tennessee -2.5 vs Tampa Bay

Remember the 2015 NFL Draft? These guys do. Somehow only four springs ago, the entire football world thought Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were franchise-saving quarterbacks. Now they’re completely irrelevant, and so are their teams. In fact, you know what? I’m taking the Titans specifically because at least they’re not still using their “franchise QB.”

Pittsburgh -14 vs Miami (Monday night)

You know how you’re starting to feel guilty about missing too many nights with the family to watch football, NBA, and the World Series? Monday is your night to give back. Monday is family night.

NOW OR NEVER

Chicago -3.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

The games in this section feature at least one team facing a now-or-never spot for their season. This game features two. The Bears were humiliated in front of a dispassionate home crowd last week, while the Chargers found yet another new way to lose, which is truly saying something for them. Chicago still has an excellent defense and special teams, and that should be enough against a battered L.A. line and an offense that just hasn’t found its way.

Philadelphia +2 at Buffalo

This feels like the third or fourth must-win game for the Eagles, who might just not have it this year. The Bills are 5–1 playing great defense at home and should win this in a walkover. But every Bills game until last week has gone under, which means this is a close, low-scoring game, and if it’s close late, I just can’t bring myself to pick Josh Allen against Carson Wentz.

Cleveland +12 at New England

The Browns are down, but not necessarily out, when you look at their closing schedule. But if they don’t show up in this one, at least keep it interesting after a full bye week to get things figured out, you can probably put a fork in them. The Patriots are on a short week, and even as much as he’s struggled, Baker Mayfield is the best QB they’ve faced this season. New England has been all defense and not much else. Baker has a ton of easy tells, so if Cleveland hasn’t made any bye week adjustments, Belichick and co. could shred him. *gulp*

THE HOME AFC SOUTH FAVORITES

Indianapolis -5.5 vs Denver

Denver is finally playing better defense these days, but the Colts continue to take care of business. Their win against Houston was huge and put them in the drivers seat for the division and maybe even a possible bye week. Indy is 5–1 against the spread so far this season. They take care of business against bad teams, and Denver is most certainly a bad team.

Houston -6 vs Oakland

The Raiders continue to be surprisingly competent… at least on offense. Their defense has been one of the worst in the league, and they look ripe for the picking against a loaded Texans offense. Deshaun Watson continues to look like one of the MVP frontrunners, and he and DeAndre Hopkins should have their way in this one.

Jacksonville -6 vs New York Jets

Did you know that the Jaguars actually have the best DVOA in the AFC South right now? That’s not the only interesting DVOA fact about this game. The Jets have one too — they’re now the single worst offense in football, behind even the lowly Dolphins after their clunker against the Patriots. The Jaguars just keep hanging, and the Jets might have been a one-trick pony against Dallas. It’s still Minshew SZN.

THE FUN GAMES

New Orleans -10 vs Arizona

I really, really wanted to talk myself into the Cards here. Arizona is quietly 3–3–1, and Kyler Murray is already doing a lot of good stuff. But the Cardinals OL is not doing much good, and the Saints have the best pass rush in the league and should give Murray trouble all game. Surely the Saints don’t need to rush Drew Brees back for this one before a bye week, right? Teddy stays undefeated.

Carolina +6 at San Francisco

Both teams are undefeated really — the 49ers in actuality, and the Panthers since Kyle Allen took over. San Francisco is winning almost exclusively with D, allowing only 10 points over their last three games. Carolina plays a lot of defense, too. The 49ers have gone under in four straight, and the Panthers have covered their last four. This feels like a field goal game. Don’t be surprised if Carolina has a shot to steal this and throw the NFC wide open.

Green Bay -3.5 at Kansas City

This should’ve been Mahomes vs Rodgers on Sunday Night Football. Instead I’m going to a church family’s birthday party at Buca di Beppo. I don’t want to talk about it.

WEEK 8 BEST BETS

Los Angeles Rams -12 vs Cincinnati (London)

The Rams haven’t been the same old Rams, but the one thing they’ve consistently done under Sean McVay is take care of crappy opponents with ease. The Bengals are most definitely that, no matter what country the game is played in. L.A. wins big and bounces back to 5–3 heading into the bye.

Seattle -3.5 at Atlanta

Atlanta has a JV defense that doesn’t know how to defend simple crossing patterns or running backs out of the backfield, and Seattle is a top-five offense with the MVP favorite at quarterback. This is a straight up gift, and who doesn’t love a good pre-Halloween gift? Trick or treat!

Detroit -6.5 vs New York Giants

Danny Dukes had a nice comeback against the Bucs, then beat a decrepit Washington team, and everyone decided he was good. Since then, the G-Men have been dominated in three straight. The Lions are good! They’re actually good. They’d be like the fourth best team in the AFC. Instead they might be the fourth best team in their own division. Life isn’t fair. ■

Last week: 6–8 Season total: 51–54–1 Best bets: 9–10–1

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