Week 9 NFL picks against the spread

It’s the best day of the football season with Rams-Saints and Brady-Rodgers, plus picks for every Week 9 game

This is the day we’ve waited for all season, the day all our football watching is worth it. Rams-Saints. Brady-Rodgers. It’s the best day of football this side of January, and we get to watch it all with an extra hour of rest thanks to Daylight Savings. Maybe 2018 isn’t so bad after all (narrator: it was).

And it’s not just those two games ! The Steelers and Ravens are one of the best rivalries in football. The Seahawks and Chargers are frisky and interesting, and that’s one of six games this week with a three-point spread or lower. We should have some close games and, with any luck, some great football.

If you missed it, we just did our midseason power rankings tournament-style on Tuesday, and we’ll include the teams’ final seed rankings below. The better team is not always favored, but as always, matchups are everything. Let’s preview the best slate in the NFL this season and make some picks.

The stay aways

(31) Oakland +3 at (30) San Francisco (Thursday)

This is literally the worst prime-time game in NFL history, and shame on you if you watch even a second of it. If you have someone in fantasy in this game, your season’s screwed anyway. You know what you should do instead? Make sure you’re registered to vote and spend an hour at League of Women Voters reading about the races and deciding to vote for. It’s your job as a U.S. citizen.

(26) Miami -3 vs (28) New York Jets

Brock Osweiler has started 28 games. What do you think his record is? Did you guess something like 10–18? Maybe 7–21? Nope. Osweiler is a perfectly forgettable 14–14 as a starter. He really is the perfect Ryan Tannehill backup. Miami has won four of five in this division rivalry and already beat the Jets in New York in September, and the Jets are all sorts of banged up.

(20) Tennessee +6.5 at (21) Dallas (Monday)

This is our third Cowboys prime-time game, and we get three of the next five Dallas games in prime-time including two in six days, #blessed. Tickets for this game are available at $5. If even Dallas fans don’t want to watch their team, why should the rest of the country have to? Both these teams are strong defenses with inconsistent offenses. Eleven of their 14 games this season have been within one score, so grab the points in what could be a close, ugly game.

The tricky division rivalries

(7) Minnesota -4 vs (23) Detroit

I firmly believe the Vikings are a much better team than the Lions, but I also know Detroit has had Minnesota’s number. The Lions have won three of four in the series plus three of the last four in Minnesota, though a lot of that is late game luck and execution as these teams have played four straight one-score games. The Lions defense remains awful, and the Vikings offense needs to be able to put up points against a team like this.

(5) Pittsburgh +3 at (14) Baltimore

The Ravens already won in Pittsburgh this year, and Ben Roethlisberger is just 3–7 lifetime in Baltimore, so that explains the line. But these teams are trending in opposite directions. The Ravens have lost three of four since their Pittsburgh win, and their offense just isn’t doing enough right now. Pittsburgh is scoring more than 29 ppg and might be tough to keep up with, even against a tough Ravens defense. The Steelers need this badly so they don’t give up the season sweep to Baltimore, and it feels like they’ll find a way.

(24) Tampa Bay +6 at (11) Carolina

Carolina has won eight of ten matchups between these teams and certainly looks the better team this year, but don’t rule out a return of Fitzmagic. Tampa has been deadly on offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and with both secondaries pretty terrible, this could turn into a shootout. Start all your fantasy players in this one and watch out for a Tampa back door cover.

The show me somethings

(16) Atlanta +2 at (18) Washington

Washington is a surprise 5–2 division leader, but it’s telling that Atlanta is a slight neutral-field favorite (remember, home field is worth three points). Atlanta can do one thing very well, and that’s pass the ball. The Redskins got demolished by the Saints, the one other top passing team they’ve faced. Washington has scored more than two TDs only once all season. If they can’t slow down Matt Ryan, they probably don’t have the juice to keep up. I need Washington to win a game like this before I believe they’re real.

(10) Seattle -2 vs (8) Los Angeles Chargers

The Seahawks have won 11 of 15 in this old AFC West rivalry, but that doesn’t mean much with the Legion of Doom and San Diego in the rear-view mirror. We just don’t know much against the Chargers yet. Their two losses are against the Rams and Chiefs, and four of the five wins are against the worst teams in football. We do know Seattle is very good at home, and we know their secondary is still very good, the only one in NFL with as many interceptions as passing TDs allowed. Seattle keeps hanging around.

Week 9 best bets

(2) Kansas City -8 at (19) Cleveland

On the one hand, the Browns defense is super talented and very good, Tyreek Hill is banged up, and the Chiefs won’t score as many points as you’d think. On the other hand, they’re still going to score a bunch of points and the Browns offense has shown no ability to keep up, with the added benefit of another chaotic week in Cleveland as they revamped the entire staff.

(15) Houston +2 at (25) Denver

These two are going in opposite directions, with Denver looking toward the future while Houston rides a five-game win streak into town. Most defenses are getting crushed the week after facing the Kansas City offense, and that included Denver after their first meeting. The Texans have the better weapons and should get the job done.

(12) Chicago -9 at (32) Buffalo

NATHAN PETERMAN ALERT!! Peterman gets a fourth start for the Bills against the ferocious Bears defense. In his first ever start, Peterman threw for 66 yards and had 5 first-half interceptions before getting benched. He’s thrown for fewer yards in his second (57) and third (24) starts somehow, benched at halftime again in one of them. He is one of the worst quarterbacks in modern NFL history. Chicago is 4–0 against teams under .500 when they play them, and they beat up on bad teams. We’re making this one a lock.

Clear your Sunday afternoon and evening, folks!

(1) Los Angeles Rams +2 at (6) New Orleans

This looks like an NFC Championship preview. The 8–0 Rams are the latest unbeaten underdog in decades. These teams played less than a year ago, and both are similar still, so it seems telling. The Rams led by two scores most of the game, leading 26–13 before a late Saints TD. Expect a shootout with not much defense, but the Rams have individual defenders that will make plays, and L.A. knows it can basically lock up the NFC 1-seed with this win. This is a power rankings pick; the Rams are just better.

(9) Green Bay +6 at (3) New England (Sunday night)

Somehow this is only our second Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers showdown. The first came in 2014 when the Packers won at home 26–21. Matt Flynn started for an injured Rodgers against Brady in 2010, and Rodgers played only garbage time in 2006 when Brett Favre’s Packers got blown out 35–0 by Brady and Belichick. This will almost certainly be our last chance to see these two all-time greats face off. We deserve a back-and-forth game that comes down to the final possession, and we’re betting on it.

While we’re here, let’s talk about that Michael Jordan commercial. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are an interesting comparison. Jordan is Brady, the assumed GOAT, and LeBron is Rodgers, the uber-talented next-generation star. Brady has five rings, MJ six. Rodgers has just one. LeBron has three but only one year his team was clearly better, getting bailed out for two other rings with a legendary Ray Allen shot and some timely Golden State injuries and suspensions. Brady and Jordan are all-time winners with all-time coaches whose teams always competed for a title every single year of their athletic peaks. Rodgers and LeBron are all-time talents who brought more to the table athletically than any player in the history of their sport but ultimately didn’t do enough to consistently do the one thing everyone agrees is the point of sports. Talent alone doesn’t get it done. Greatness means winning, and winning takes the right teammates, the right leadership, the right coaching, the right luck, and the ability to elevate above it all when all of those things don’t line up. Brady and Jordan did those things their entire careers. They did the thing sports are supposed to do: they won. That Rodgers and LeBron are more talented is not an argument for them as GOAT candidates. Their inability to use their greatest-ever talents to accomplish the one thing everyone agrees sports are about is ultimately the biggest case against them.

Week 8 record: 7–6–1 Season record: 58–58–5 Best bets: 10–10–3 Locks: 2–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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