Week 4 fantasy football buy or sell

32 seconds for 32 teams — why it’s time to buy Dolphins and Jaguars but sell Saints and Lions

Now that we have three weeks of data on the 2017 NFL season, it’s time to start paying a bit more attention to schedules. It’s now possible to see difficult or easy stretches coming ahead, and that helps us know where to buy or sell before everyone else sees what hit them. New Orleans and Detroit could struggle over the next month, while Miami should bounce back after an embarrassing loss against the Jets.

Three weeks is enough data to give us a pattern, so we’re starting to see players pull ahead in targets and usage, even if the production hasn’t come. That means a chance for you to make your move.

So let’s go around the league, with some big name RBs that should be on the chopping block and others to go get…

Arizona

Carson Palmer is averaging over 300 yards a game and leads what is clearly a passing offense with David Johnson out. With weak 49ers, Eagles, and Bucs pass defenses on tap, he looks like a usable QB. Andre Ellington led Arizona RBs with 49 snaps and had 81 yards and eight touches. He’s the RB to own here but he’s a low-end play.

Atlanta

Devonta Freeman has seen his carries go up each game and had 21 to just six for Tevin Coleman, and he has four rushing TDs to none for Coleman. Coleman’s only a spot flex at 10 touches a game. Mohamed Sanu has seen at least six targets every game and is well ahead of Taylor Gabriel in targets and snaps. He looks like a solid WR3 with a high ceiling.

Baltimore

The Ravens were awful in London, but Javorius Allen still looks useful. He got only eight of the 23 rushes by a Baltimore RB but out-snapped West and Collins 34–10–10 and faces a struggling Pittsburgh run defense next. Flacco is the #33 fantasy QB, if you’re wondering if anyone else is worth owning.

Buffalo

LeSean McCoy is struggling with just 30 yards on 26 rushes the last two weeks against really tough Denver and Carolina defenses. He leads Buffalo with 18 receptions and the volume is still there so he’s a buy low candidate, but you were warned that he will struggle to match last year’s heights. Tyrod Taylor faces just one more top 12 pass defense the rest of the season, and not until Week 12. He is a usable low-end QB most weeks.

Carolina

It’s officially time to worry. Cam Newton had no passing TDs with three INTs and is averaging just 3ppg on the ground. He has fewer fantasy points than Josh McCown, Case Keenum, and Jacoby Brissett, two of whom haven’t even started all season. But Carolina faces the Pats, Lions, and Eagles next so you’ve got to keep playing the pass attack. That makes Devin Funchess a priority pickup with Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen sidelined. He had 10 targets this week.

Chicago

Nice to see Jordan Howard show up with a monster game, even if he did it on your bench. Howard had 164 yards and a pair of TDs including the game winner, and his five receptions led the team. Tarik Cohen still looked explosive, but Howard out-snapped him 41 to 28 and is not on this week’s injury report so he looks safe to put back in lineups going forward.

Cincinnati

You were told to go get Joe Mixon and he had his biggest game yet with 21 touches with 34 snaps to 14 for Hill and 13 for Bernard, and he was over 100 yards. Cincinnati had a new offensive coordinator this week so we should see more Mixon going forward, though Cleveland and Buffalo next on the schedule have both been stingy against the run.

Cleveland

Well that was a dud. Their RBs continue to split snaps while Isaiah Crowell continues to get twice as many touches as Duke Johnson, even though Johnson looks far more dynamic. He’s someone to keep an eye on. Rashard Higgins was a bust but saw six targets, so he’s a wait and see. DeShone Kizer is averaging 7ppg just on the ground, so he’s worked his way into at least the QB2 discussion, but we need to see more consistency.

Dallas

Ezekiel Elliott got going in the second half against Arizona and finished with 94 yards and a TD. He led all RBs with 82 yards after contact for the second time in three weeks, so the problem has been the offensive line, not him. He’s past Denver and Arizona’s top five run defenses and now plays five of his next six against bottom 10 run defenses. Go get him.

Denver

Don’t panic on C.J. Anderson. He suddenly had only 10 touches this week, same as Jamaal Charles, but he out-snapped him 49 to 21. Buffalo has been top three against RBs, and Anderson should be fine. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have at least 25 targets and 16 receptions, and each looks like a safe WR2.

Detroit

Ameer Abdullah is starting to look like an actual low-end RB2. He was out-snapped 34–29 by Theo Riddick, but every one of Riddick’s snaps was a pass route. Abdullah is averaging 17 touches a game, more than double anyone else. But everyone on Detroit could be in trouble with Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and a bye all coming in the next five weeks. If you’ve got a buyer for Matt Stafford or Golden Tate, this is the time.

Green Bay

Ty Montgomery continues to get all sorts of work. He had 20 touches and saw 12 targets, though he turned that into just 15 yards on eight catches. It’s tough to see him keeping up this work rate. Geronimo Allison was a nice pickup as promised with 6/122 on eight targets. He looks like a spot start any week Cobb is missing.

Houston

Deshaun Watson looks like the real deal. He’s averaging 7ppg rushing, and the passing is coming around. This week Houston faces Tennessee’s bottom three pass defense, so this could be a great spot for Watson. Lamar Miller out-snapped rookie D’Onte Foreman 49 to 17 but Foreman had more yards and looked more explosive again. That’s worrying long-term for Miller and means Foreman is worth a stash in deeper leagues.

Indianapolis

And that’s why you always start your studs. T.Y. Hilton put up a monster 7/153/1 line and can always bust a long one like he did with the 61-yard TD this week. His value should be on the uptick with Andrew Luck looking close to a return. Go get Luck off waivers if he’s available.

Jacksonville

It might be time to make a trade offer for Leonard Fournette. He continues to keep a high floor a la Melvin Gordon with a TD and by being involved in the receiving game, and he gets the Jets, Steelers, and Rams next, each allowing among the top seven most points to RBs. There could be a breakout coming. Marqise Lee could come with him. He’s the clear lead WR with 19 targets the past two weeks. Allen Hurns has just 10, so don’t be fooled by his two late TDs. Lee looks like a top 25 WR going forward.

Kansas City

Kareem Hunt had another monster game with 183 more yards, and he’s now had a 50+ yard touchdown in all three games. He’s bound to slow down with Washington and Houston’s top ten run defenses on tap, and he’s an obvious sell high who can’t keep this up, but who would you sell him for? Unless you’re getting two or three top level players, you probably got Hunt late enough that you should just enjoy the ride.

Los Angeles Chargers

What do we do with Chargers tight ends? Hunter Henry didn’t have a target for the second time. He out-snapped Antonio Gates 41 to 40 but ran just 14 pass routes to 31 for Gates, and Gates has just 6/58/1 so far. Neither is reliable right now, which is a real shame since five of the next six Chargers games are against bottom ten defenses against tight ends. If one of these two misses time, watch for a breakout from the other.

Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay’s Rams now have as many 40-point games as Jeff Fisher’s, but they won’t play the Colts and 49ers all season. Up next are Dallas, Seattle, and Jacksonville, a much more difficult stretch. Todd Gurley’s value can only go down after six TDs in three weeks. I had him as a top five RB and think this is at least relatively sustainable, but he’s an obvious sell high candidate if you can get a windfall. Sammy Watkins finallyshowed up with 100+ and two TDs, but he’s still fourth on the team in targets. The upcoming games are tougher against the pass than the run, and Watkins still doesn’t look reliable.

Miami

Miami was brutal, shut out against the Jets until the game’s final play, and your league mates may be ready to bail on their Dolphins. You should go the other direction and try to pick up Jay Ajayi and DeVante Parker while you still can. Ajayi is still a target monster, and Parker had a 8/76/1 line even in a terrible game, and the Miami schedule opens up with the Saints, Titans, Falcons, and Jets next. All four give up plenty of passing, and three of them are bottom seven run defenses. Go trade for some Dolphins!

Minnesota

Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen had monster games again, each top three in receiving yards. Bradford and Keenum have produced the third most fantasy points at QB. But Minnesota’s next four games are against top 12 pass defenses, so this could all come crashing back to earth. Diggs and Thielen continue to look like options 1a and 1b, but Diggs has four TDs to none for Thielen. Diggs is a sell high whose value is at its peak, while Thielen is probably worth hanging onto since the TDs are likely to even out.

New England

It was a quiet game for James White with one target and five rushes, but he led Patriots RBs with 31 snaps. Mike Gillislee was second with 21. He had 12/31 without a reception, and there will be duds like that when he doesn’t get into the endzone. Brandin Cooks had a monster 5/131/2 game but still hasn’t separated himself as any sort of WR1. He will be third to fifth in targets most weeks with a few of these games sprinkled in, so this would be a good time to sell if your team can’t afford that inconsistency.

New Orleans

Adrian Peterson had 11 touches but played only 13 snaps, so don’t be fooled. He’s the third RB on a passing team and has a bye Week 5, so go ahead and drop him. You might pick up Willie Snead in his place if he’s available, coming off his three-game suspension. But beware with Drew Brees and the passing attack. They should be fine against the Dolphins but then have a bye week and face a top 10 pass defense in seven of their next eight. If you have a strong second QB, this is the time to trade Brees for a top positional player.

New York Giants

The Giants passing game finally broke out a bit and gets Tampa Bay next, a bottom three pass defense. All three Giants WRs saw 10+ targets, but Brandon Marshall looks like New York’s WR3 in snaps and targets. Evan Engram has seen at least five targets each game and is putting himself into the mix at tight end. New York split their RB time between Perkins, Darkwa, and Vereen pretty evenly and none of them look worth a roster spot right now.

New York Jets

If you’re struggling to find a tight end option, you might consider Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. He returned from a two-game suspension to lead the Jets in targets with six this week, and he faces a bottom ten defense against TEs in each of the next four weeks. He’s the only Jet you should consider using.

Oakland

The Raiders were under 100 yards, and it’s not going to get much easier with Denver and Baltimore next. Marshawn Lynch had just seven touches and has seen his snaps and carries drop each game. He played only 16 snaps in a game the Raiders trailed all day. He could actually be a counter intuitive buy low if you believe in Oakland and think they’ll need him to run out the clock many games. Jared Cook is a surprise reception leader in Oakland with 5+ targets each game. He looks usable at tight end and is getting consistent work.

Philadelphia

Zach Ertz was a monster again with 8/55/1 on 10 targets, but four of the next five defenses have been top five against TEs. He won’t stay quite this good all year, if you’re getting a big offer. Alshon Jeffery continues to see big targets and air yards and looks due for a breakout game. Wendell Smallwood played 43 of 76 snaps and could be the lead back with Darren Sproles sidelined, but we’ll see if that’s worth much. LeGarrette Blount played just 22 snaps even with Sproles out and Philly holding a big lead much of the game.

Pittsburgh

Road Roethlisberger strikes again, and everyone but Antonio Brown is struggling. Up next are Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Kansas City, so it’s only going to get tougher if you’re waiting for Bell or Bryant to break out. One player that could benefit is Jesse James, who gets two bottom three TE defenses the next two weeks and may be a short-term fill-in.

San Francisco

This was the big Carlos Hyde game we told you was coming with 94 yards and a pair of TDs, and he’s still heavily involved in the passing game with 16 targets. But four of his next six are against top 10 run defenses, and Hyde won’t face a current bottom top run D again all season. Add that to a history of injuries after big starts, and this might be time to sell. Pierre Garcon target monster finally showed up with 7/142 on 10 targets.

Seattle

Jimmy Graham bounced back with 7/72 on 11 targets and looks like a safe play again. Chris Carson has taken control of the backfield with 41 snaps to 27 for Prosise and just one for Rawls and Lacey — combined. Prosise is the passing back, and that limits Carson’s value for now but his value should go up once Seattle settles in and has the lead more often.

Tampa Bay

Tampa RBs had only eight touches combined in a pass-heavy effort. That means it’s time to start thinking about Doug Martin, who has just one game left in his suspension. He’ll face seven bottom 10 run defenses the rest of the way including New England’s league-worst rush D in his return.

Tennessee

It looks like DeMarco Murray finally broke out with 14/115/1 but that’s really just a boring 13/40 outside of one long 75-yard TD through all sorts of bad angles and tackling. He’s run for just 109 yards on 34 carries all season outside of that play and has only four receptions, and three of his next four are against top ten run Ds. Derrick Henry continues to look like the better back, so this is a great time to sell high on Murray. Rishard Matthews posted 6/87/1 on 10 targets and has pulled ahead slightly as WR1a in Tennessee.

Washington

Has there ever been a more obvious sell high candidate than Chris Thompson? He’s the #3 RB right now despite averaging just nine touches per game, and he’s had half as many TDs in three weeks as the rest of his career combined. Washington’s bye is a week away, so you may not get another chance. You might consider buying Terrelle Pryor. Owners are surely frustrated after a 2/19 game in which he appeared invisible, but he still leads a passing team in snaps and targets.

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