Week 3 fantasy football buy or sell

32 seconds for 32 teams — using the numbers behind the numbers to predict fantasy football success

Two weeks into the season, you’re feeling pretty good if you’re 2–0 and already panicking if you’re 0–2. It’s too early to know much about your fantasy team, but some real trends are starting to emerge around the league. Kareem Hunt looks like a bona fide star, and Jordan Howard looks like a bust and a half. But not everything is it seems.

So what’s hiding behind the numbers that might give us a hint at future production? What players are getting opportunity, and who could see their values rise or fall soon? Last week’s top waiver recommendation Javorius Allen had 101 yards and a TD. Who should you target this week? Let’s go around the league…

Arizona

The Cardinals offense was poor, though not terrible, against the Colts. Carson Palmer had 332 yards and a TD and looked better, and this is a passing offense now. Andre Ellington played 30 snaps but got only five touches, while the recently signed Chris Johnson played one snap less than Kerwyn Williams but got two more carries and looked better. Ellington may be the most valuable of the three but that’s not saying much.

Atlanta

Devonta Freeman is out-snapping Tevin Coleman by a consistent 3:2 ratio but he’s still getting the bulk of the rushing opportunities. He had two TDs and 100 yards, but he could struggle to meet expectations with that slightly limited role in a reduced Atlanta offense. That’s also been true for Matt Ryan so far with just one TD per week. Last season’s offensive explosion just wasn’t sustainable.

Baltimore

Last week’s top pickup Javorius Allen was fantastic with 101 yards and a TD on 14 rushes and six targets, and he should get even more work moving forward with West hurt. Keep an eye on Alex Collins, who looked good with 7/42 in limited time replacing West. Don’t get too excited about Jeremy Maclin or Ben Watson just yet. Watson had eight catches this week but only one target Week 1, and Maclin is averaging six yards per catch on 4–5 targets a week outside of one long broken play.

Buffalo

LeSean McCoy struggled with 12 rushes for nine yards but salvaged some value with 6/34 receiving on seven targets. You were warned about using a first round pick on McCoy, but he’s still seeing enough touches to be a weekly play, just one with a lower ceiling. Zay Jones led the team with six targets but both McCoy and Clay have more receptions and targets than any Buffalo WR.

Carolina

The Panthers offense has not looked good against the 49ers or Bills, and that could spell trouble. Cam Newton has only 30 rushing yards and two TDs and is taking a beating. He stayed down a long time after an injury this week and is struggling to produce. Christian McCaffrey has not lived up to the hype. He had just eight carries to 15 for Jonathan Stewart. McCaffrey played 43 snaps to Stewart’s 15 and out-touched him 17 to 15, so Carolina is using him, but he’s not doing much. Kelvin Benjamin’s played 43 snaps each week. Maybe he gets an uptick in usage with Olsen out, but playing two-thirds of the time on a running team leaves a low ceiling. It’s not looking good for Carolina, but let’s give them a shot against the Saints this week before we give up.

Chicago

Looks like Tarik Cohen was not a one-week wonder. He caught another eight passes for 55 yards and looks like at least a PPR play. Jordan Howard was awful with seven yards on nine touches, and he’s nursing an injury. We might need to see him perform well for a game before starting him again. Cohen out-snapped him 40 to 31 but it’s hard to know how much of that is the injury.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati failed to score a touchdown in either of its two opening home games, and that’s left precious little for the running backs. Giovanni Bernard played half of the snaps again and is clearly the passing back. Joe Mixon and Jeremy Hill split the other snaps evenly, though Mixon led the team in RB touches again. Right now none of them are particularly useful, but a script where the Bengals aren’t trailing all game could mean more Mixon.

Cleveland

Don’t give up on Isaiah Crowell. He was out-snapped by Duke Johnson 37 to 32 and only got 10 carries, but he should get more work when Cleveland is more in the game. Be sure to grab Rashard Higgins off waivers this week. He had 7/95 on 11 targets (and got equal looks from both Kizer and Hogan) and could be Cleveland’s WR1 with Coleman injured and Kenny Britt looking like a free agent bust. Don’t forget what Terrelle Pryor did last year in this offense. Higgins, Crowell, Johnson, and Kizer could all be plays against the Colts this week and in an incredibly soft upcoming Browns schedule.

Dallas

You’re frustrated with the Cowboys, but don’t give up. Ezekiel Elliott ran for a career-low eight yards but still had 13 touches and played 85% of the snaps. He looks ready to explode Monday night. Dez Bryant has 25 targets and is tied for the league lead with five redzone looks. His catch rate of 38% will improve. Both Zeke and Dez still look like monsters.

Denver

Looks like C.J. Anderson is a stud. He had 154 yards on 28 touches and scored a pair of TDs, and he’s second in the league with 10 redzone carries he hasn’t even scored on yet so there’s room for more. He’s a RB1 right now but he’s done this early before and almost always seems to pick up nagging injuries. His value will never be higher if you’re thinking about selling. Last week’s star Bennie Fowler had just one catch and played 23 snaps. Trevor Siemian looks like he’s worth owning at the very least.

Detroit

Ameer Abdullah finally had himself a game. He ran for a career-high 86 yards on 17 carries, but Theo Riddick had 12 touches of his own. Riddick could be the better play against an Atlanta defense that gets destroyed by receiving backs. Matt Stafford may be a sell high if someone comes looking. His six TDs far outpace his reduced yardage and passing attempts.

Green Bay

Looks like Ty Montgomery is here to stay. He’s the only Packers RB seeing the field and had a monster game with 110 yards and two TDs, though the Falcons allow plenty to RBs, especially receiving ones. Both Nelson and Cobb are banged up, and the Packers play Sunday and again Thursday. That could make Geronimo Allison a short-term pickup, and Martellus Bennett looks like a strong play. He’s had 17 targets already and looks like a real threat.

Houston

DeAndre Hopkins continues to be a target monster. Houston threw his direction 16 times Thursday night, and he leads the league in targets. Through two weeks, Hopkins has 37 targets including plays that ended in a penalty, and he’s drawn six defensive pass interference or holding calls. D’Onta Foreman was up from two to 17 snaps and looked good on 12 carries, so that could eat into Lamar Miller’s value a bit. Foreman looked good and is worth a stash in deeper leagues.

Indianapolis

There may be some life in the Colts after all. Tight end sleeper Jack Doyle had a huge day with 7/79 and looks like a weekly start with all the tight end injuries. Frank Gore is barely out-snapping Robert Turbin (32 to 28) but is still getting the bulk of the carries and got a TD. He is what he is. Don’t give up on T.Y. Hilton yet. He’ll be much better when Luck is back. Donte Moncrief, on the other hand, may have fallen to WR3 behind Kamar Aiken. Aiken had more snaps and targets this week. Neither is worth owning.

Jacksonville

This may be more the norm from Leonard Fournette, who struggled with just 14/40 on the ground but saved his week with a late TD. He played only 40 snaps and lost a lot of passing down work to Chris Ivory (27 snaps and nine touches) but did get five targets himself. Marqise Lee was the clear WR1 early and finished with 12 targets to pace the team, while Allen Hurns piled up garbage time production to finish with 6/82 and a TD. Both should be rostered, and Lee looks like a weekly play.

Kansas City

Kareem Hunt looks like the real deal. He had another 109 yards and two TDs and saw his snap count uptick from 58 to 74% as Charcandrick West didn’t even touch the ball. Tyreek Hill had a disappointing 4/43 on six targets. He played 47 of 53 snaps but these are the weeks you’re going to get when the long ball doesn’t connect. Travis Kelce looks like a huge early favorite to finish the league as fantasy’s best TE.

Los Angeles Chargers

Melvin Gordon is still seeing all the work but not doing much with it. He had 13 yards on nine rushes (11 yards came on one play) but salvaged his value with a TD and 7/65 receiving. That still feels unsustainable but it’s lasted over a season now. Hunter Henry split snaps evenly with Antonio Gates this week but had 7/80 to just 2/11 for Gates, though Gates had the TD.

Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley continues to get a ton of work and is getting into the endzone now that the Rams have a semblance of a real offense. Sammy Watkins has barely made a blip on the fantasy radar. He had just two targets this week, though he did lead Rams receivers in snaps. Only Gurley is worth a start for now, though Watkins and Cooper Kupp look worth owning.

Miami

Jay Ajayi looked like a beast. He had 30 touches and played all but four snaps, finishing with 126 yards. The Dolphins played their entire base offense (Cutler, Ajayi, Parker, Landry, Stills, Thomas) on 60 of 68 snaps, very unusual. Jarvis Landry had 13 catches on 15 targets but just 78 yards, an awful six yards per catch. The Chargers give up plenty to slot receivers so this was as good as it gets for Landry. DeVante Parker looked like the sleeper we hoped for with 4/85 on nine targets.

Minnesota

This was a different team without Sam Bradford, but it’s also a lot different playing the Saints at home instead of the Steelers on the road, so it’s tough to draw many conclusions. Dalvin Cook looked good again but played less, with Jerick McKinnon getting 23 snaps and five targets as Minnesota used him more on passing downs. Be cautious with the Vikings with Bradford out.

New England

Rumors of the Patriots demise were greatly exaggerated. Mike Gillislee had another TD and leads the league with 13 redzone carries, and his 18/69 on the ground was encouraging. James White matched Gillislee’s 30 snaps and has six redzone carries of his own, and his 8/85 receiving could be the beneficiary of the Edelman and Amendola injuries. Brandin Cooks saw only four targets and 2/37 against his old team. He’s going to have a couple monster games but has disappointed. Chris Hogan is playing a ton of snaps and seeing consistent targets. Keep an eye on Philip Dorsett, who already had 68 yards this week, with the Patriots depth chart getting ever thinner.

New Orleans

So much for Alvin Kamara being the guy. He had four touches to eight for Adrian Peterson and 12 for Mark Ingram. Ingram played twice as many snaps as Peterson and Kamara. It looks like Peterson can probably be dropped. Neither Ted Ginn nor Brandon Coleman looks particularly useful. Coleman is playing more snaps and Ginn is getting more targets but neither has been reliable and Willie Snead will be back soon. Coby Fleener got another TD but is still only playing half the snaps.

New York Giants

The Giants have been a disaster so far. Odell Beckham was back but saw a quiet 4/36 night on five targets, though it’s encouraging that he played 62% of the snaps and looked fairly sharp. Paul Perkins out-snapped Shane Vereen 28 to 10 but it remains unclear why. Perkins had 22 yards on nine touches while Vereen had 55 yards on his nine touches. Neither is playable right now but Vereen looks like he could be good if given a bigger role.

New York Jets

So, about that Bilal Powell love fest. He played just 18 snaps to 27 for Matt Forte and had only six carries and no targets. Forte had 91 yards on 13 touches and actually looked solid. You can’t play Powell until we see more from him. Jermaine Kearse looks like the clear Jets WR1 but this was probably his best game of the season so don’t get too excited.

Oakland

Michael Crabtree had three TDs on 6/80 receiving and it looks like more of the last two years for Oakland WRs, but looks can be deceiving. Amari Cooper has played 13 more snaps than Crabtree both games and leads the league in redzone targets, so this could be a good time to buy low. Marshawn Lynch certainly looks like he’s back, but be careful. He played under 50% of the snaps a second straight week and has seen Washington and Richard combine to match his carries. Lynch doesn’t do much in the passing game, so he needs his rushing touches to have any consistent value.

Philadelphia

For one week at least, Darren Sproles played like a lead back. He was on the field for 50 snaps and had 12 touches, and LeGarrette Blount played only six snaps and didn’t touch the ball. Sproles is a must-own, and Blount can be dropped if necessary but might be worth another week. Alshon Jeffery had a big week with 7/92 and a TD on 13 targets and leads the league in air yards. He looks like a top ten WR any week he’s healthy, and Zach Ertz continues to put up big numbers too. This is a passing offense, and that makes Carson Wentz at least a high-end QB2 with 45 passes and 55 rushing yards this week.

Pittsburgh

LeVeon Bell hasn’t produced big numbers yet but he got all but two RB touches for Pittsburgh with 31 for 91 yards, and his eight redzone carries rank third in the league. He hasn’t produced yet, but he will. A rare opportunity to buy low. Martavis Bryant looks like he had a big game, but he’s disappointed so far. His four targets were fourth on the team, and he’s tied for the season with Eli Rogers so he could be very inconsistent and big play reliant.

San Francisco

Carlos Hyde looks like a monster. He had 124 yards on just 15 carries and has the league’s second best yards per carry, and now he’s involved in the passing game with six targets each week too. He could be a fantasy superstar if the 49ers would just stay on the field more — and of course, if he stays healthy. Sell high or hold? That depends on where your team is at, but you probably knew what you were getting yourself into, so enjoy the ride.

Seattle

It took only a game and a half for Chris Carson to take over as the lead back with 50 snaps and 21 touches for 100 yards. The Seahawks are still splitting RB work with C.J. Prosise’s six targets and Thomas Rawls’s five carries, but Eddie Lacy didn’t even play a single snap. Carson looks like a fringe RB2 but could develop into more. The entire Seahawks offense is struggling, but Tyler Lockett finally looks healthy. He saw his snaps jump from 26 to 61 and got nine targets this week along with five kick returns. He’s back on the radar.

Tampa Bay

Jacquizz Rodgers played less than half of Tampa’s snaps but ran for 19/67 with a TD and seven redzone rushes. He’s a definite play at least two more weeks with Martin suspended. DeSean Jackson played only 36 or 71 snaps. Don’t cut him yet, but another week of that and he’s a goner.

Tennessee

The Titans suffered injuries to DeMarco Murray and Corey Davis, and that could open the door for Derrick Henry or Eric Decker to break out. Henry leads the league in yards after contact and looked terrific with almost 100 yards and a TD, and Tennessee had two vultured TD runs by the fullback and tight end. He’s a top ten back if Murray is out. Decker and Rishard Matthews have been pretty even in snaps and targets so far so we’ll see if one steps up.

Washington

The Redskins are spreading it around and killing fantasy value. Samaje Perine looked good with 67 yards on 22 touches in just 26 snaps. He’ll be the beneficiary if Kelley misses more time with injury, not Chris Thompson. Thompson broke 100 yards and saw seven targets, but those two rushing TDs are a huge fluke — he has just three the rest of his career. Perine looks like a top waiver priority and has a chance to shine in a Sunday night game.

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