Week 15 NFL picks against the spread

Cold weather football is playoff football, and it’s all on the line Week 15 with Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks best bets

It’s starting to get real. The playoff picture is taking shape, even though a ridiculous 72% of the NFL can still make the playoffs with only three weeks to go. And it’s starting to get cold. Winter is here, and it’ll soon be winter for many NFL teams, too. The average temperature for 13 outdoor games this week projects at 47 degrees, and there are a whopping ten games expected t be in the 40s or below. We get December football this week in Buffalo, Denver, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, and NYC. Out with the record-breaking passing and in with defense and running the ball. Oh boy.

This week the games are ranked from least to most important. Only one game has no bearing on the playoffs whatsoever. We’re riding high after hitting four of six Week 14 best bets, including a pair of locks. That brings us to a perfect 5–0 on 2018 locks, so let’s keep the magic going.

In case you missed it, here’s what at stake for every playoff hopeful:

Nothing but draft picks here

Atlanta -8.5 vs Arizona

This is the one completely meaningless Week 15 game with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, and shame on the Falcons. Atlanta’s league-worst DVOA meets Arizona’s league-worst and historically bad offense. Arizona is averaging a meager 13.6 ppg, and the Falcons are on a five-game losing streak in which they haven’t crossed the 20-point barrier. Still, Atlanta averages over 28 ppg at home and the Cards have lost by this margin seven times and face a must-lose game in a race for the #1 pick.

Still alive in name only

Detroit +2.5 at Buffalo

The Bills still sport a historically bad offense too, though they’ve been saved lately by rookie “QB” Josh Allen running the ball like an ‘80s college offense. Allen has rushed for 335 yards the last three games. But Detroit is #1 in the league at rushing yards allowed to the QB, giving up just 62 all season despite facing names like Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubisky, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott. If Allen can’t run, will anyone in this game move the ball? The over/under in this game is ghastly at 38.5. Don’t expect many points.

Cincinnati -3 vs Oakland

Oakland now has three wins, all of them seemingly accidental and won on a late field goal. The Bengals are on a five-game losing streak but still have a genuinely realistic path to winning the division. They might not be as bad as they’ve looked as they’ve faced a really tough schedule during this losing streak. The Raiders, meanwhile, are exactly as bad as they’ve looked.

Jacksonville -6.5 vs Washington

Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman, Thad Lewis, Ryan Nassib, Taylor Heinicke, Mark Sanchez … these are just a few of the QBs Josh Johnson has backed up during his time in the NFL. He’s on his 15th team in the past decade, and now he’ll make his first start since 2011 on the road against a defense that shut out Andrew Luck two weeks ago and crushed most of the NFL last season. Somehow Cody Kessler is the best QB in a game against a team with a legitimate chance at the playoffs. This game has a putrid 36 over/under line, lowest of any game all season. Vegas projects Washington to score 14.5 points. Have fun with that.

I mean it kinda matters, but it shouldn’t …

Houston -6 at New York Jets (Saturday)

Saturday football is here with a pair of meh AFC games, but at least we get to watch Deshaun Watson. The Texans are the most overlooked team in the NFL. They’re just off a nine-game winning streak but barely anyone is even talking about them. The Jets have a bottom five offense and are just off a six-game losing streak. This line would be at least three points higher but Houston lost last week to a good team and New York beat a bad one. Don’t overthink this.

Denver -2.5 vs Cleveland (Saturday)

The Broncos have been a weird 2018 team. They beat the Chargers and Steelers in back-to-back weeks. They’ve had hard-fought one-score losses to the Texans, Rams, and Chiefs (twice!). But they’ve also lost ugly games to the Jets and 49ers. Still, Denver is the #5 team in weighted DVOA and they’re built for December football with a tough run game and great defense. Cleveland’s offense is reformed but this is a difficult ask, and the Browns are 1–5 on the road with losses to the Bucs and Raiders.

Baltimore -7.5 vs Tampa Bay

I really want to pick the Bucs. Tampa has cut down on its offensive mistakes at the cost of scoring upside, but I fear a Jameis Winston road meltdown in the cold Baltimore rain against this defense. The Bucs have been awful on the road, and six of the Ravens’ seven wins were by double digits. The best way to beat Tampa is by airing it out and Baltimore can’t do that, but I also like Baltimore’s ability to win a sloppy game with defense and a run game.

Middling teams trending towards elimination

New York Giants -2.5 vs Tennessee

You think the Giants are terrible and the Titans are a playoff contender, but throw out the records and look at these teams. What exactly does Tennessee do well? How many Titans are even owned in your fantasy league? Tennessee is 2–4 on the road, averaging 16 ppg. The Giants have been hot, winning four of five. Saquon Barkley has been even better than anyone imagined, and the Giants would be a playoff team if the season started in November.

Indianapolis -2.5 vs Dallas

It might be time to use some caution with the Cowboys. The Thursday night game against the Saints was impressive but less so as the Saints offense also struggled against the Bucs, and Dallas’s five-game win streak have all been one-score games. The Colts seem like the better team. They rank in the top-13 on offense, defense, and special teams DVOA and are just a solid all-around team. They’ve won six of seven, all but the weird Jacksonville shutout. That game seemed like it blew their season, but then they saved it against Houston. The road is tough now with the Cowboys and Giants on tap before a road finale in Tennessee, but they’re the team we want to see win the AFC 6-seed.

Minnesota -7 vs Miami

These are the current 6-seeds somehow, despite the fact that neither of them has actually been any good this season. Minnesota has six wins, all against sub-.500 teams. The Vikings are 0–5 against likely playoff teams and they haven’t been competitive in any of them. Miami has seven wins all by one score, including a monsoon win against the Titans, a game where the Bears forgot how to tackle, and a miracle against the Patriots. I refuse to believe the Dolphins are good. Kevin Stefanski will fix Minnesota’s offense — that or Miami’s league-worst pass defense.

An MVP’s last stand

Green Bay +7 at Chicago

All logic points to the Bears rolling and ending their rivals’ season for once. The Packers are 0–6 on the road, and their only decent win this fall was a Week 1 sham against the Bears that Chicago dominated even without Khalil Mack fully integrated. Everyone’s penciling the Packers in for another late-season run after an impressive win against the Falcons, but how impressive can a win against the Falcons really be? Even the theory of a letdown game after the win against the Rams falls flat; the Bears won’t overlook the Packers. Still … I don’t know how to quit Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is 7–2 in Chicago, and the Packers have won 15 of 17 against the Bears (and one of those losses was with Rodgers out). Rodgers may not win, but he’ll make Chicago earn it.

Carolina +7 vs New Orleans (Monday)

This could be another MVP’s last stand as Cam Newton’s Panthers have lost five in a row to fall completely out of the playoff picture. The Saints offense has struggled of late, but Carolina’s defense has too, and Newton hasn’t been able to get this team over the goal line lately. The Panthers have six one-score losses. This is a must-win prime-time game against a rival, and five of the last seven matchups have been one-score affairs. The Saints need this one to keep the 1-seed, but the Panthers need it even more.

Brady vs Ben

New England -2 at Pittsburgh

Tom Brady is 11–2 against the Steelers. That includes 3–0 in the playoffs and 6–2 in Pittsburgh. The Brady Patriots own the Steelers, so much that Vegas has already priced it into the line, practically begging you to take Pittsburgh. The Roethlisberger Steelers have only been a home underdog eight times, and they’ve won six of those games. These teams are weird. The Pats have four losses… to the Lions, Dolphins, Titans, and Jaguars. The Steelers have blown three straight in the fourth quarter, and their best win was either against the Panthers or Joe Flacco. Neither of these teams has been anywhere near as good as expected. And yet … it’s Brady vs Ben and this will always be a monster game. Pittsburgh at home, a faltering Pats team, and yet I can’t get past the way Belichick, Brady, and Gronk have dominated this rivalry.

Week 15 best bets

Los Angeles Rams -9 vs Philadelphia

Thanks for nothing, Sunday night. Seriously, how are we not watching Brady and Ben in Sunday night prime time? These teams met almost exactly a year ago in a 43–35 barn burner, but last year’s Eagles are gone. Philadelphia’s pass defense is getting shredded, and the Rams are 6–0 at home and scoring almost 38ppg. Now on top of it, Carson Wentz may be out, perhaps for the season. Stick a fork in the 2018 Eagles. It was fun while it lasted.

Seattle -4 at San Francisco

What in the world is this line? The 49ers are 3–10 and need every loss they can get to clinch the #1 pick. Seattle just beat San Francisco 43–16 two weeks ago, and the Seahawks have now won ten straight in this former rivalry, seven of them by double digits. Jim Harbaugh ain’t walking through that door. This line should probably be a full touchdown higher.

Kansas City -3 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday)

There’s something fishy with these lines, but I’m not deterred. The most unstoppable offense is in football is at home in the cold against a California team missing their best two running backs, and Vegas is basically calling these teams even? Kansas City has won nine games in a row against the Chargers, six of those by double digits. These are the top two DVOA teams in the NFL and also the top two offenses, but the Chiefs have a massive special teams advantage that killed the Chargers Week 1, and L.A. has not shown it can stop Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs clinch a bye and essentially the 1-seed with this win.

Week 14 record: 9–7 Season record: 101–100–7 Best bets: 21–20–3 Locks: 5–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.