Week 14 NFL picks against the spread

It’s the best gambling week of the season, with double the best bets and double the fun. Let’s make some Christmas money!

December is busier every year, and with the bowl games starting up soon, there’s about to be football every day. You gotta take a break sometime, right? Sunday afternoon is the perfect opportunity. The early slate offers a few interesting trap games for the top teams and a Texans-Colts game that could be good. The late afternoon is a complete poopfecta. Keep Sunday and Monday night open, but you know that roommate’s children’s Christmas program you got invited to on Sunday? Yeah … you can go to this one.

That doesn’t mean the games won’t be close. We’ve got eight divisional matchups that usually portend tight games, and only four games feature a spread of seven or more — and I like the underdogs of them. But close football does not always equal great football. It could be another ugly lower scoring week, just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

But hey, who ever said we can’t make any money off ugly, boring football? Week 14 may not be exciting, but there’s plenty to bet on. We can’t seem to get out of our .500 funk, so let’s shake things up and double down. Double the best bets, double the locks, double the fun. Time to get some Christmas spending money…

The stay aways, aka all the late afternoon games

Detroit -2.5 at Arizona

Detroit is averaging 16 ppg over their last six, and Arizona’s historically bad offense has scored 21 or less all but once this season. The over/under is 41. Think something like 17–14. The only people interested in this game are David Johnson fantasy owners, and they’re not in the playoffs anyway.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 vs Cincinnati

The Bengals started 4–1 before their season went off the rails with a glut of injuries. They’re allowing over 34 ppg since and just lost by 14+ at home to Denver and Cleveland, so why hang close now? Maybe because this is a trap game for the Chargers, coming off an emotional win against the Steelers and with a monster Thursday night visit to the Chiefs coming. Still, it’s Jeff Driskel on the road. Go ahead, you talk yourself into it.

Oakland +11 vs Pittsburgh

This has all the markings of one of those ugly Steelers road games. Ready for a crazy stat? Coming into this season, the Steelers since 2012 were an impressive 41–17 against teams .500 or better … and just 20–18 against losing teams. Why does Pittsburgh so often play to the level of its opponent? This is another trap game, as the Steelers have huge showdowns against the Patriots and Saints up next.

Denver -4 at San Francisco

It’s a rematch of Super Bowl XXIV, where the 49ers won 55–10 and Jerry Rice caught 7 balls for 148 yards and 3 TDs. The crazy thing is that was Rice’s worst San Francisco Super Bowl! He had 10 catches for 149 yards and another 3 TDs against the Chargers and racked up 11 catches for 215 yards and a score against Cincinnati. Rice’s 589 Super Bowl receiving yards are a full 225 more than anyone else. No other player in history has caught more than three Super Bowl TDs in their career — and Rice has done it twice in one game. And all of that information is way more interesting than this game. Jerry Rice: GOAT.

Fighting for a bye week is HARD work

Tampa Bay +8 vs New Orleans

The Saints have to be fuming after an ugly showing against the Cowboys, and they’ve been waiting since Week 1 to avenge a loss in which they gave up 48 points to these Bucs. The defense has come together quite a bit since then, but Tampa has also cut down its offensive mistakes too. The Saints have only covered this line once in the last nine games against the Bucs, and it looks like it could be a monsoon in Tampa so it may be lower scoring than you think.

Miami +8 vs New England

Tom Brady is 7–9 in Miami. That’s not bad on the road against a division rival, but Brady is 198–51 in every other regular season game. That’s almost an 80% winning percentage, basically a 13–3 season against literally everyone else. Heck, he’s even 15–1 against Miami in Foxborough. The Dolphins have won four of their last five home games against New England. Something about Miami just doesn’t sit right with Brady, whose next most road losses against any team is four versus Denver. Stick with history.

Baltimore +7 at Kansas City

I really like the way Baltimore matches up with the Chiefs. The Ravens have a top-three defense that should keep Kansas City’s offense in check, and their newly deadly rushing attack is the perfect defense by keeping Mahomes off the field. Baltimore is averaging 37 minutes of possession with Lamar Jackson at the helm, and the Chiefs allow an NFL-worst 5.1 yards per carry. This is just the sort of team that could give the Chiefs problems.

It’s about draft positioning now

Buffalo -3 vs New York Jets

The Bills have won seven of 10 against the Jets and just beat them in New York 41–10. Weirdly, the winning team is averaging 32 ppg during those 10 games, so the better bet here based on history might be the 38.5 over. Josh Allen and Sam Darnold may be the future, but they’re not the present. Rest assured this is a stay-away too; it’s just not a late afternoon game.

Cleveland +2 vs Carolina

This is a shocking line, favoring the Panthers on the road against a well-rounded Browns team that’s playing well. The Panthers started 6–2 but have lost four in a row since, and they probably need to win three of their final four to make the playoffs with this road trip plus a pair of Saints games and a visit from Atlanta. Honestly, Cleveland just seems better at this point.

Atlanta +6 at Green Bay

No two teams have been more disappointing. They’ve combined to beat one team with a winning record, and that was the shambolic Week 1 Packers win against the Bears. This game doesn’t matter at all, but history tells us we should tune in when Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers square off. Their last four matchups averaged a nice 69 ppg: two tightly-contested regular season games that came down to the final play (33–32 in 2016, 43–37 OT in 2014) and a pair of lopsided playoff victories the teams split (44–17 in 2017, 48–21 in 2011). Rodgers and Ryan combined for seven TDs in three of those games, so take the over and enjoy the fireworks.

Week 14 best bets

Houston -4.5 vs Indianapolis

Vegas is trying not to overreact to the Colts shutout, but Indy’s five-game win streak was against a light schedule. So too for Houston’s nine-game win streak. These teams are a combined 0–3 against teams with a winning record right now, so is either of them any good? Houston’s 5–11 at home against the Colts all time, but most of those are Peyton Manning’s fault. I just believe in one of these teams, and it’s the one at home that didn’t get shut out last week.

Dallas -3.5 vs Philadelphia

It might be time to put this Philly season to bed. The Cowboys won in Philadelphia a few weeks ago and, with all the Washington injuries, a win here basically clinches the division. Philly is 0–4 against teams over .500 when they play them, while Dallas has been in all but one game this season. The Eagles have two sham wins against the Giants and Redskins, while the Cowboys are coming off maybe the most impressive win of the season. Philly is also coming off a short week with its litany of injuries, while Dallas had a half bye after a couple Thursday games. My gut says the Cowboys win this one easily and end the Super Bowl champs for good. We’re locking it in.

New York Giants +1.5 at Washington

The Giants have played hard all season with 10 one-score games, and they’ve won eight of 12 in Washington. The Redskins just put four more guys on IR (no, seriously) including anti-Aslan Colt McCoy, who turned out to be neither good nor safe. Mark Sanchez was sitting on his couch a couple weeks ago. Now he has a short week to prep for a team that just beat the Bears? I don’t see it. The Redskins are done. They might just not win again this season.

The prime time games, aka 3 bonus best bets

Tennessee -4 vs Jacksonville (Thursday)

The Thursdayest of all Thursday night games. Only three Titans opponents so far this year are under .500, so maybe their 6–6 is somewhat earned. The Titans finish against the Jags, Giants, Redskins, and Colts, so they’re a real playoff threat. The Jaguars won 6–0 last week, but remember the six matters as much as the zero. That was the fourth time this year Jacksonville has scored seven or fewer. The Titans have won five of six against the Jags, plus eight of 10 at home. The over/under on this game is 37.5, as in number of seconds anyone will watch. Take the under.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Chicago (Sunday night)

If you like defensive line play, this is the game for you with Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, and Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc. This is the final Rams hurdle before the NFC 1-seed, and I have believed all year that the Bears could give the Rams or Saints trouble. This line just isn’t high enough for me to take the Bears. I keep coming back to this: I don’t see Chicago winning comfortably, so best case scenario is a close game late and I’m counting on Mitchell Trubisky or Chase Daniel. I can’t get there, but maybe #BearsMagic.

Seattle -3 vs Minnesota (Monday)

Have these teams ever played before? I sure don’t remember any matchups ($@#* Blair Walsh). Seattle is a different animal at home, especially with a roaring 12th man on a Monday night. Wilson is 41–12 at home, and the Vikings’ only two road wins are against the Eagles and Jets. Minnesota hasn’t shown it can travel, and the offense hasn’t shown up in the big games. The winner of this game gets the inside track to the 5-seed. Minnesota should theoretically have the right defense to limit Seattle’s boring run attack, but I don’t see the Seahawks losing a key battle at home in prime time. Lock this one in too. Double best bets. Double locks. Let’s do this, Week 14.

Week 13 record: 7–9 Season record: 92–93–7 Best bets: 17–18–3 Locks: 3–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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