The Indiana Pacers Need to Make a Trade

The Pacers are deep but lack a second star. Is it time to gamble on someone with star potential?

The Indiana Pacers are 17–10. They’re fourth in the East, a half game ahead of the Boston Celtics. The Pacers have the third best defense in the NBA and have won four straight. And they’ve done all that despite Victor Oladipo missing almost half the season so far. The team is deep and hungry, and Domantas Sabonis is blossoming before our eyes. You could hardly ask for a better start to the season, all things considered.

So why in the world would the Indiana Pacers make a trade?

We’re not talking about a Kevin O'Connor blow-em-up deal, but we’re also not looking at some little deal to improve the third guy off the bench. No, now is the time for Indiana to make a significant move to shake up its roster with an eye toward the future. And they’re set up perfectly to do it.

Why make a trade now?

So why is now the time to make a trade?

For starters, have you seen the East? Toronto is the best team east of Oakland. Milwaukee made the leap. Boston is coming together. Philadelphia is figuring things out with Jimmy Butler. The top of the East is loaded, and you can make a pretty good argument that four of the NBA’s five best teams reside there.

Indiana has a deep, talented roster. Their rotation guys are good but not great. Their one superstar is great but not elite. They’re built to be a strong regular season team, one that wins with defense and depth, but does Indiana have that extra gear for the playoffs?

Which of those teams above is Indiana beating in a playoff series? Realistically, they cap out as the fifth best team in the East this season. That’s not even good for a home playoff series. Maybe one of the contenders faces injuries and Indiana jumps to the 4-seed. That might have been the difference against LeBron last spring. Maybe Indiana catches fire for a month and moves up to the 3-seed. That might even mean avoiding the East top four altogether. The Pacers win a first round series against someone like the Pistons, then lose in five or six in the second round. That’s this team’s absolute ceiling.

And then what?

Then the team blows itself up, since half of Indiana’s contracts are up. Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are on expiring deals. Bojan Bogdanovic and Tyreke Evans are done too. Thad Young and Kyle O’Quinn are out. That’s six of the 11-man rotation that are not under contract for next season. Indiana in 2019 basically has Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, and Doug McDermott under contract, plus Sabonis and a bunch of young talent. They’re in good position and not committed to any bad money long-term, so they’ll have tons of cap space this summer.

Sounds like the perfect setup, right? Get that 3-seed, win a first-round series, show everyone what the Pacers can do, and boom, bring on the free agents.

Unfortunately, that’s just not realistic. Indiana can have all the cap room it wants, and it still isn’t getting the top free agents. Either the Pacers overspend for a Harrison Barnes type on a max deal, or they’re stuck taking the leftovers on short-term deals like they’ve done recently. Churn through the roster, bring on some new veterans, and hope you get into that 3- to 5-seed range and see if you can win a playoff series. Add in the #21 pick with little hope of stardom. Lather, rinse, repeat.

For a small-market team like Indiana, that’s not a bad outcome. The Pacers have made a living staying just above the mean, keeping fans happy and keeping the team in the playoff hunt. It could be much worse, and you don’t need me to name the seven or eight easy examples.

Still, couldn’t Indiana do more?

The Pacers are deep with 11 real contributors. They have two full lineups. Collison, Oladipo, Bojan, Thad, and Turner start. CoJo, Tyreke, McDermott, Sabonis, and KOQ are a full bench unit. And we haven’t even mentioned rookie Aaron Holiday, who looks ready to take more point guard minutes.

Eleven men is nice, but playoff teams typically only seven or eight guys. Indiana has five guys that can run some “point:” DC, Dipo, Tyreke, CoJo, and Holiday. They don’t need all five, and there aren’t enough basketballs for them all. Tyreke Evans in particular has not fit well. His counting stats have been cut nearly in half from last year’s career season, and he’s shooting a horrible 38% from the field and just doesn’t seem to fit into what the Pacers are doing.

Still, Tyreke is the sort of guy half the teams in the league could use, a bench scorer that can create for himself. Collison and Joseph are rotation point guards and would improve most bench units. Bojan Bogdanovic can win a playoff game if he gets hot. Thad Young is a plug-and-play four. All of these guys are good, and they’re also on easily digestible one-year deals almost any team can take on. They’re all valuable trade chips to the right team:

Darren Collison, 1 year $10 million Cory Joseph, 1 year $7.9 million Tyreke Evans, 1 year $12 million Thaddeus Young, 1 year $13.8 million Bojan Bogdanovic, 1 year $10.5 million Kyle O’Quinn, 1 year $4.4 million

Indiana can afford to trade one of its point guards— it should, really. And though they can’t necessarily afford to lose Bojan or Thad, they could if they’re replacing them with a better player.

Expiring salary is really valuable. There’s quite a crop of free agents this summer, and many teams may be eager to cut salary. They may trade a highly-priced player to Indiana for some combination of expiring deals. Maybe that frees up money this summer. Perhaps it’s a chance to get rid of a long-term deal they no longer want. Maybe this is a team’s chance to blow it up.

For Indiana, that might mean a shot at a player whose value is lessened because of their current team situation. This could be their chance to take a shot on someone young with star potential — someone like Victor Oladipo two summers ago. The Pacers believe in their culture. If there’s a young possibly overpaid star our there that fits next to Oladipo, it may be worth the gamble.

What teams intrigue but probably don’t work?

Let’s run quickly through a few ideas you might have already thought of that don’t work particularly well for one reason or another.

Atlanta — Kent Bazemore

Bazemore is expensive and not a star. He might improve Indiana slightly but doesn’t move the needle long-term.

Charlotte — Nic Batum

Batum is a nice fit next to Oladipo in theory, unless you’ve watched him play lately. Batum’s numbers have dropped three straight seasons, he’s not a very good defender anymore, he can’t stay healthy, and he’s owed $77 million over the next three years. Charlotte would probably have to add Malik Monk or Miles Bridges to get Indiana to even start the conversation.

Denver — Will Barton

A Barton for Tyreke Evans deal works but doesn’t really help either team. Barton is a lower-usage version of Evans, but if Evans hasn’t fit in Indiana, would Barton? And why would Denver dump Barton after just signing him to an extension? The Pacers would rather trade for former Mr. Indiana Basketball Gary Harris, but the Nuggets would hang up.

Los Angeles Clippers — Danilo Gallinari

Gallo fits pretty well next to either Sabonis or Turner, and he would add a dynamic offensive option the Pacers don’t have. It would need to be something like Gallinari for Thad Young and CoJo, and that doesn’t make much sense for either side. The Clippers don’t need what Indiana has to offer — points and bigs, really — and Indiana may not want to swap Young’s steady defense and leadership for the Gallo injury question mark.

Boston — Gordon Hayward

I really wanted to make this one work, but there’s no fit there. Boston is a better version of Indiana. They’re a deep, defensive team whose depth is better and whose stars are better. Indiana has nothing to give that helps the Celtics. Hayward is a really interesting rebound fit and he’d be a homecoming hero in Indiana, but there’s no combination of guys the Pacers can give that helps Boston unless the Celtics just want to dump Hayward. They don’t.

The Five Best Indiana Trade Fits

So which teams are the best fits as an Indiana trade partner? Which players are the right stars for the Pacers to gamble on? I found five that look like real possibilities. Let’s go through them from worst fit to best…

Portland — C.J. McCollum

McCollum and Meyers Leonard for Collison, CoJo, Tyreke, and Sabonis

It seems like Portland knows by now that the Dame-C.J. pairing isn’t going to take them to the next level long-term, and McCollum makes more sense next to Oladipo. The two can both handle and shoot, and Oladipo’s defense covers McCollum. The problem is Portland isn’t exactly looking to dump McCollum. They’d need a real package, and Indiana probably doesn’t have enough to offer. They’d almost certainly have to start with Indiana’s one real blue chipper, Domantas Sabonis, and they’d probably have to eat some long-term Portland salary like Leonard or Moe Harkless, too. But even after this deal, the Blazers are still over $90 million next summer, and now they’re really just left building around Dame, Sabonis, and Zach Collins. That’s not a reset and it’s a worse team in the interim.

Orlando — Aaron Gordon

Gordon for Thad and Collison

Aaron Gordon is one of my favorite trade targets. He just turned 23 and has shown flashes of stardom, and he’s on a team-friendly deal. Gordon’s contract is four years and $76 million, and it’s declining so it will be a very reasonable $16 million in its final season. A young cost-controlled player with upside is exactly what Indiana should be aiming for, and Gordon fits well next to Sabonis and Turner. We already know you want Magic players after they leave (Serge Ibaka, Tobias Harris, and, uh, Victor Oladipo). But Orlando does nothing in this deal but get off Gordon’s contract.

Gordon and Evan Fournier for Thad, Collison, and Tyreke

Now Orlando gets off of Fournier’s money too, three years and $51 million. They reset for the zillionth time with Mo Bamba, Jonny Isaac, and all the free taxes and sunshine Orlando can offer. Indiana eats a lot of money but builds a lineup around Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, and Turner, plus Sabonis and the youth off the bench. They’d still only be around $75 million, so maybe that cap room signs someone like Kemba Walker to run the point. Fournier makes 37% of his threes and would fit into the Bogdanovic role long-term. But would it be enough for Orlando? Maybe they ask for Indiana’s first. Fine, no harm done. But Sabonis may be a bridge too far on this one.

Dallas — Harrison Barnes

HB for Thad and CoJo

Harrison Barnes is not a superstar, but he’s good for what he is, and he’d be a nice offensive fit at the four next to Sabonis or Turner. HB is a career 37% shooter from deep, and he’s hitting a career-best 40% this season. He raises Indiana’s ceiling and gives them a second player that can find their own shot. And at age 26, he’s still just entering his prime. Dallas moves on from Barnes and his 2019 player option and gets down to something like $27 million next summer (plus cap holds). They basically take a full reset with Luka Doncic in tow, the entire cap available, a great owner, and no income tax. It’s not a slam dunk for either team, but it’s a nice calculated gamble for both.

Minnesota — Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins for Tyreke and Collison

Wiggins is in the first year of a five-year $147-million extension. But he’s also 23 years old, super athletic, and two years removed from averaging 23.6ppg as a 21-year-old. Everyone on NBA Twitter hates Andrew Wiggins, but guys like Zach Lowe insist that some teams still view him as a positive asset. What if Wiggins just hasn’t developed because Minnesota and Thibs have been the wrong fit? Could Oladipo take Wiggins under his wing, add some muscle, and teach him to play defense? Could be a heck of a one-two punch.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s what Minnesota hoped for with Jimmy Butler and Wiggins, and that didn’t exactly work out. Would Wiggins fit any better next to Oladipo? As for Minnesota, the optics on this deal are rough. They’re punting entirely on a former #1 pick, and they get nothing long-term except a reset around Karl-Anthony Towns. Both teams would have to swallow hard to accept this deal. What is Andrew Wiggins really worth?

Washington — Otto Porter

Porter and Jeff Green for Tyreke, Collison, and Indiana first Porter and Green for Bojan, Collison, and a first Porter and Markieff Morris for Young, Tyreke, CoJo, and a first

We have a winner… maybe. Otto Porter is the prince that was promised. Porter is the player Minnesota wishes it had in Andrew Wiggins, and all the more reason to love an Oladipo-Porter pairing on the wing. Could Porter be a poor man’s version of Paul George? He’s still entering his prime at age 25 and might even be the best player on the Wizards, if advanced metrics are to be believed. Porter is a career 40% shooter from deep, and he’s an offensive efficiency machine and a good defender.

He’s also owed $82 million over the next three years, and Washington seems ready to blow it up and start over. So which deal makes sense? It depends on how valuable Washington thinks Porter is. Indiana would surely be willing to give up a pick and a couple expiring guys to add a player as valuable as Porter. He might be the guy their expiring contracts have been waiting for. Will they pull the trigger on a deal?

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