Week 12 NFL picks against the spread

Thanksgiving football is here. Bring back John Madden and the turducken! Plus picks for every Week 12 game.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I’m thankful for all of my faithful readers who stick by me through thick and thin — and let’s be honest, this season’s picks have been a lot more thin than thick. I’m thankful for readers like Lon, Todd, Rajan, Josif, Jake, Aellé, and Chris who read and clap each week. I’m thankful for julian rogers who just keeps on publishing my terrible picks. And I’m thankful for my family Brianne, Jody, and Curt Anderson who are my first clappers and supporters on pretty much everything I do. I’m also thankful we got only four picks wrong last week, and I’m thankful for that incredible Monday Night showdown between the Rams and Chiefs.

You know what I’m not thankful for? I’m not thankful that John Madden and Pat Summerall are no longer part of my Thanksgiving. John and Pat feel like family the way they are so intrinsically part of my annual Thanksgiving feast. Nothing puts you to sleep faster for that tryptophan-induced coma than the soothing intonations of Pat Summerall, and nothing wakes you up faster than the smell of a piping hot turducken as John Madden gives out legs to the 17 MVPs he’s chosen. Thanksgiving is about family and nostalgia and food, and I want my nostalgia back. We can’t get John and Pat to do one game a year?! (Shut up, they can use his taped voice, I don’t want to talk about it.) Can’t we all just spend Thanksgiving with our football grandpas a few more times?

Growing up sucks. Let’s make some picks.

Turkey Day

Detroit +4 vs Chicago

The Bears have the third most Thanksgiving wins all time after Dallas and Detroit, but the Lions are 37–39–2 all time on Turkey Day (which is pretty good considering they win like 20% of the rest of their games). Detroit has won four of five Thanksgiving matchups with the Bears, plus nine of their last 11 against Chicago overall. The Lions are better against division rivals and better at home, where they have now beaten the Pats, Packers, and Panthers. This is a super trappy game for Chicago. They played Sunday night and get the early Thursday road game, and we saw last year how that wrecked Dallas. Add to that the whispers that Chase Daniel may get the Chicago start, and Khalil Mack isn’t enough.

Dallas -7 vs Washington

Washington is 1–7 against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and they’ve won only three of their last 11 matchups overall against Dallas. They’re also on a short week with a new QB in Colt McCoy. Washington is 6–4 in a weak division and play what could be six non-playoff teams, but four of those six are on the road and this putrid offense faces a lot of tough defenses. Washington may finish .500 yet. Dallas has to have this one. They can’t risk falling 2.5 games back in the division, especially with the Saints next week. The Cowboys defense is legit. Washington’s offense could just completely no show.

Atlanta +13 at New Orleans

Weirdly, this division rivalry has been a sweep in five of the last seven years, and the Saints already won in overtime in Atlanta. New Orleans is rolling, with 45 points in three straight, but the Falcons defense is getting healthier, and what goes up must come down. Matt Ryan is quietly on pace for 5300 yards, 35 TDs, and 6 picks, basically his MVP season. Count on him keeping the Falcons close, especially since 14 of the last 20 matchups between these teams have been one-score affairs.

Sunday stay aways

San Francisco +3.5 at Tampa Bay

All of Sunday might be a stay away. It’s an awful slate of games, thanks to the Rams and Chiefs being on bye and the Saints and Bears playing Thursday. Tampa has lost seven of their last eight but has scored 27+ seven times, so at least they’re fun. The 49ers are 2–8 but have won or lost by one score seven times. This game might be decent! Too bad no one will watch to find out. Would you rather have Nick Mullens or Jameis Winston? One of them was the #1 pick but has already been benched this season for a 52-year-old Harvard wizard. The other one has led his offense to 28.5 ppg and is coming off a bye week to really settle in. We’ll go with that one.

New York Giants +6 at Philadelphia

I’m sorry, have you seen this Eagles defense? They’re literally signing dudes off the street to play cornerback at this point. This is a game Philly absolutely has to have at 4–6 — they still have to play the Rams on the road too, so they need to win the rest. But the Giants have played eight one-score games, and Philly has no shot against Saquon or OBJ. The Giants are 3–7 with a soft closing schedule. Could they run the table and steal the division? It would be very Eli Manning era Giants. They’re 50-to-1 if you believe.

Cincinnati -1 vs Cleveland

It’s the Hue Jackson revenge game! But seriously, how weird is it that a head coach gets fired and then immediately hired to play a team he was just coaching three weeks later?! It’s very weird. Cincinnati has won seven straight against the Browns, but then again, who hasn’t? Anyway, this Jackson thing could be a HUE advantage.

The contrarian picks

Denver +3 vs Pittsburgh

Sometimes you just have to throw out football logic and make a pick. And there is some serious voodoo going on in this series. Check out the win-loss pattern for Denver against Pittsburgh ever since they drafted John Elway: L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-?. Listen, we all took the SATs. This pattern is easy. This time is a W for Denver, and the Broncos always seem to have Pittsburgh’s number at home, 9–3 during that stretch.

New York Jets +12.5 vs New England

This line has already risen four points, maybe because of the Sam Darnold injury whispers, but Josh McCown is better than Darnold for now anyways. The Pats have won 12 of 14 against the Jets, but their last five trips to New York have been one-score affairs, including both Jets wins. This is one of those games when Belichick does just enough and waits for another day.

Arizona +14.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers might be the least covered 8–2 team all time. They’re somehow 8-to-1 to win their division when a December win against the Chiefs could make them the AFC 1-seed. Still, they have covered a 12-point spread just three times this season, against the Raiders twice and the Browns. Let’s see them do it against a real team. Fine, let’s see them do it against the Cards.

Fringe-y playoff-ish games

Indianapolis -8 vs Miami

Sunday’s slate is so bad this is one of the three good games. The Colts and Dolphins are on the fringe of the AFC playoff race at 5–5, but it’s not the same 5–5. Miami can’t get their offense healthy even after the bye, and their defense is struggling big time. Indy looks legitimately good. They’ve won four in a row and are scoring 34 ppg over their last seven games, a stretch in which Andrew Luck has thrown 3+ TDs every time.

Seattle +3.5 at Carolina

This game would’ve been a lot more exciting a couple years ago, but we got it then too. These teams hate each other and have traded home playoff wins while facing off almost every season. Seattle has won six of the eight matchups this decade, and at 5–5, they need this one a little more. Carolina is a perfect 5–0 at home. Both of Sunday’s key NFC battles pit the better team at home against a road dog getting lots of love in Vegas, and the line on this one has flipped multiple times. Be careful.

Minnesota -3 vs Green Bay (Sunday night)

This is a monster game, especially if the Bears stumble in Detroit on Thanksgiving and open the division door. These teams tied the first time around, so this game functions as the tiebreaker between division rivals fighting for the same playoff spot. It’s essentially worth 1.5 wins and puts one of these teams in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. But is either of these teams any good? Minnesota’s one impressive win was against Philadelphia, and Green Bay’s one decent win was a Week 1 fluke against the Bears. The Packers have won only one of their last six against the Vikings. Minnesota might be able to end the Mike McCarthy era with a victory.

Week 12 best bets

Baltimore -10 vs Oakland

Holy cow, we are taking a rookie quarterback in his second start playing the wishbone offense as a 10-point favorite. The thing is, Oakland is 2–8 with two wins on last-second field goals, and the Raiders legitimately appear to be tanking much of the time. Baltimore’s defense is dominant at home. Their offense can just stay out of the way.

Jacksonville -3 at Buffalo

This was a playoff game ten months ago. It’s true, look it up! They even scored 13 points combined. It was… not awesome. Kind of like these teams. They’re not awesome. They’re so not awesome that Jacksonville is on a six-game losing streak playing on the road against the league’s #1 defense coming off a bye, and they’re still favored. Thanks Josh Allen. Cool, so Lamar Jackson and Blake Bortles are our best bets so far. Awesome.

Houston -4 vs Tennessee (Monday)

The Texans just keep on winning. They’re at seven in a row now and have a legit chance at a 13-game win streak and a bye heading into the playoffs thanks to a Charmin-soft schedule. They’ve won 9 of 13 in this series, and Houston’s last 12 wins against the Texans have been by a touchdown or more. Tennessee’s offense has disappeared again, and Marcus Mariota is hurt again, too. Grab the Texans before we find out Blaine Gabbert is playing.

Week 11 record: 7–4–2 Season record: 78–76–7 Best bets: 14–15–3 Locks: 3–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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