Week 11 NFL picks against the spread

The game of the year is here! A full Rams and Chiefs breakdown, plus betting picks for every game

Some weeks just don’t make sense. Apparently that was Week 10 of the 2018 NFL season. At least it was for me. My picks got rocked in Week 10, going 5–9 including the poopfecta 0–3 on best bets. The Patriots and Eagles stunk. The Lions, Raiders, and Bengals didn’t even come close to covering. I picked Brock Osweiler against Aaron Rodgers. I don’t know what happened.

So what did I do to get on the right track? Nothing. I did absolutely nothing. I’m throwing last week out. Sports are weird. One data point doesn’t change the other nine. It’s time to move on and make some winning picks.

And then it’s time to sit back and enjoy the game of the year Monday night as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Los Angeles Rams. Never has more been at stake in fantasy football leagues across the country heading into Monday night. The over/under for this game is 63.5, the highest line in NFL history. It’s going to be awesome, and odds are we won’t get this game again. So sit back, relax, and enjoy an incredible game. We earned it.

Thursday night

Seattle -3 vs Green Bay

Off to a pushy start! After last week, we’ll take what we can get. God bless Mike McCarthy.

The stay aways

New York Giants -1 vs Tampa Bay

Tampa’s awful defense is allowing over 32 ppg, and they’ve thrown 19 picks in nine games. All of that was okay because they were passing all over teams, right up until head coach Dirk Koetter took over play-calling duties from OC guru Todd Monken for some stupid reason. The Bucs are bad, bad, very bad. The Giants are just normal bad.

Baltimore +5.5 vs Cincinnati

The line isn’t official yet, mostly because no one knows who’s playing QB for Baltimore. It could be Lamar Jackson, could be Robert Griffin, and might just be some combination of the two. But if Baltimore is getting almost a touchdown at home, we may take them anyway. The defense is still good, and Cincy’s is not. They’ve allowed 130 points the last three games after a slew of injuries. Cincinnati has won 8 of 10 against Baltimore, so there’s that at least, but it’s not enough this time.

Oakland +5 at Arizona

Sometimes stay away means don’t gamble on this game, it’s too hard to read. Sometimes it means stay away from watching. Sometimes it’s this game. The Cardinals have scored 17 or less all but one game. Oakland scored 70 against the Browns and Colts but 74 in their other seven games. Stay away from everything. They wouldn’t even show this game in hell.

When you’re hot, you’re hot

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Jacksonville

The Jaguars have lost five in a row and are yet to have a 60-yard rusher this season. The Steelers have won five in a row and averaged 37 ppg during that stretch. These teams are in different universes right now. Jacksonville did sweep Pittsburgh last season, knocking them out of the playoffs, so maybe they have their number. But these are nothing like last year’s Jags, and you can bet the Steelers have been waiting for this one since January.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 vs Denver

We still don’t really know if the Chargers are all that, considering their seven wins have all come against teams .500 or worse, but at least we know they can take care of a reeling team like Denver. The Broncos have lost six of seven, though they’ve kept it within one score six times this season. Denver owns this rivalry at home, but the Chargers should take care of business in L.A.

New Orleans -7 vs Philadelphia

The Saints are the hottest team in football, winning five of six by double digits against a pretty tough schedule. They did this last year too, with another eight-game win streak that included six wins by multiple scores. When this team gets hot, look out, especially at home. The Eagles could not be colder after the egg they laid against Dallas, and if that defense can’t stop Dak Prescott, what’s it going to do against Brees and Kamara? But Philly doesn’t get blown out. Carson Wentz should be able to pass on this team and keep Philly around. Don’t be surprised if this one ends up as high-scoring as Monday night. You’re gonna need a lot of fantasy points this week, folks.

The good teams who haven’t beaten good teams

Houston -2 at Washington

Somehow both these teams are 6–3, despite the fact that they have exactly one win between them against a team with a winning record. All they’ve really done so far is played in the two worst divisions in football. Washington has that crazy stat you’ve been hearing this week how they’ve yet to have a lead change the entire season, and they still feel like a team destined to finish around .500. But Houston has scored at least 17 every game, and the Redskins surprisingly strong defense has given up over 17 points three times and lost all three. Too many Washington injuries and not enough offense.

Chicago -2.5 vs Minnesota (Sunday night)

The Bears and Vikings have 11 wins, none of them against a winning team. Minnesota’s next four games are on national TV, and I’m definitely worried I won’t sleep for the next month. But as a Vikings fan living in Chicago, I can tell you one thing: the Vikings stink here. Minnesota’s last 17 visits to the Windy City have ended in either a Bears victory or a three-point Vikes win. I moved here 17 years ago, so this might be my fault. Here’s hoping this is one of the field goal wins, but I think Khalil Mack says otherwise.

Week 11 best bets

Indianapolis -1.5 vs Tennessee

Somehow while no one noticed, Andrew Luck has thrown at least three TDs in six straight games. Other players to do that in NFL history: 2004 Peyton Manning, 2007 Tom Brady, end of list. Those years matter, cuz in case they don’t ring a bell, 04 Peyton had an NFL-record 49 TDs, and then 07 Brady broke the record with 50. Apparently Andrew Luck is good again. But you don’t need to tell the Titans. Luck is 9–0 lifetime against Tennessee, and the Colts have won 16 of 19 against the Titans. Tennessee’s defense is good, but they don’t have the offense to keep up with Frank Reich’s Luck offense.

Carolina -4 at Detroit

The Lions are way better at home with wins against the Patriots and Packers, and the Panthers are 1–3 on the road. That’s the only possible reason this line is so low. Because Detroit has been absolutely atrocious the last couple weeks, getting throttled by the Vikings and Bears. The line can’t protect anyone, with 16 sacks allowed the last two games, and the team has gone in the tank since trading away several key players. Carolina would win this game anywhere.

Atlanta -3 vs Dallas

It feels like Atlanta throws away their season every time they finally get it back, but it seems to be a home and away thing. The Falcons are 1–3 on the road, but they average 32 ppg at home. None of this is new for Matt Ryan, who’s 43–41 lifetime on the road but 56–27 at home. If they score anything close to their usual home output, Dallas doesn’t have the horses to keep up.

The game of the year

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs Kansas City (Monday)

What a game this will be! The Chiefs and Rams rank second and third in points scored. They’re first and second in yards per passing play, each over nine yards per pass, and they’re tied for first with 6.9 yards per play overall. Each defense is poor, second and third worst in rushing yards allowed per play, each giving up over 23 ppg. There will be points, and a lot of them.

I hope you’re able to just sit back and watch and enjoy this one. There are no more creative and fun offenses in the entire NFL. Every other team in football is trying to do what these two teams are doing, and we get to watch them go back and forth for 60 minutes. The Rams and Chiefs only play once every four years, and somehow we got them this year. #blessed

The Rams caught a break when the game had to be moved from Mexico City back to L.A. It was a Rams “home” game before but now it’s a true home game, and that should only add to the awesome atmosphere since it’s the first home Monday night L.A. game in decades. The Rams avoid playing Kansas City’s uptempo offense in the elevation, and I had earmarked that as the Chiefs secret weapon to wear L.A. out. Kansas City will still score, but I think they’ll score too fast. The Chiefs are bottom ten in time of possession. I expect a whole lot of Todd Gurley as the Rams best defense is keeping the ball away from Patrick Mahomes and wearing the Chiefs out.

It feels like it should come down to the team that has the ball last. I like the Chiefs offense a little more, especially with Goff’s security blanket Cooper Kupp out, but I trust the Rams defense to make a few plays, and I trust Sean McVay against Andy Reid in a couple key moments.

I think this one lives up to the hype.

Rams 41, Chiefs 37

Whatever happens, I can’t wait to watch.

Week 10 record: 5–9 Season record: 71–72–5 Best bets: 13–13–3 Locks: 3–0

Last season: 130–116–11 Best bets: 29–20–1 Locks: 2–1

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