The State of the Race for the 94th Academy Awards
After the utter chaos that was the COVID-afflicted 93rd Academy Awards, there was hope in the industry that everything would be “back to normal” by the time the 94th Academy Awards came around. Far from it. The ripple effects of last year’s anomalies have been compounded with further issues posed by the rise of the omicron variant. But, we are finally getting some clarity. After several weeks of regional associations of critics weighing in with their votes for the best in film for 2021, the Oscar race really started to really take shape over the last two days with the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, Critics Choice Awards, and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards making key announcements. Check out my take on where things now stand for the 94th Academy Awards.
To find out who I think should win the top Oscars this year, check out my articles ranking the four acting categories and the contenders in the screenplay, directing, and Best Picture categories
The lead-up to the Academy Awards has become a notoriously drawn-out affair, with campaigning typically beginning in earnest in the fall and dozens of awards ceremonies from December onward leading up to the big night, which in recent years has mostly been held at the very end of February or in March. But, as a result of the sheer chaos that COVID-19 wrought on Hollywood (not to mention the globe), the Academy decided to make some changes to tradition last year. Films that premiered initially on streaming services are eligible for the first time, the eligibility window was extended by two months, and the Oscars were held later than ever before (April 25).
Although the telecast was a near-disaster and the lowest viewed ceremony ever, last year’s crop of winners was exceptional. The big winners were Nomadland, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, and Promising Young Woman. I thought all five of these films were exceptional and memorable. In terms of surprises, it was a mixed bag. Nomadland dominated Best Picture and Best Director throughout awards season, but Best Actor and Best Actress were true nail-biters until the night of the ceremony. (Click here to read my review of last year’s ceremony and more about my take on the winners.)
This year, however, things seem even messier somehow. Several seeming slam-dunks failed to impress critics or engage audiences and some films that were generally derided by critics seem to be doing exceptionally well with the industry. Also adding to the confusion is the fact that over the last several weeks, dozens of regional and national critics groups named their picks for the best in film over the past year and their picks have deviated quite a bit from what was expected to be this year’s Oscar narrative. Frankly, I love to see groups making out-of-left-field picks instead of trying to predict the Academy’s taste, but it does make predicting harder.
In general, critics associations are relatively poor predictors of the Oscars, highlighting the discrepancy in taste between film critics and Academy votes. The Oscar race does not typically truly start taking shape until the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Critics’ Choice Awards, and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) announce their nominations. And now we have heard at least something from each group.
Below, I discuss each of the awards and then I move in to a discussion about what their picks indicate about the Oscar race.
- The 79th Golden Globe Awards. A long-running institution, the GGs are voted upon by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a small and somewhat mysterious group of journalists who cover Hollywood for foreign media outlets. They had always been known to host a great party and a fun telecast, but over the years started to be taken very seriously due to their ability to presage the Oscars. Then they experienced a spectacular controversy about the rampant corruption and lack of diversity and inclusion in their organization, which led to a huge backlash and ended up with them canceling the televised ceremony this year. Due to their tarnished reputation and the lack of a high-profile ceremony, it is unclear if their picks will have as much influence this year as in yers past. In the last 25 years, the Golden Globes have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 15 times, Best Director 14 times, Best Actor 17 times, and Best Actress 21 times. (Important note: At the Globes, separate awards for Picture, Actor, and Actress are given to dramatic and musical/comedy films at the Globes). The nominations were announced on December 13 and the winners were announced via social media on January 9. The full list of nominees and winners can be found here.
- The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. This relatively young awards show is notable in that it is voted on by the nearly 120,000 members of SAG-AFTRA (the actors’ union), a small but influential subset of whom are also members of the Oscar-voting Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In the last 25 years, SAG have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Actor 19 times and Best Actress 18 times. (Of note, the SAG Awards only award actors; the closest thing they have to a Best Picture award is Best Ensemble, which has converged with the Oscar for Best Picture 12 of the past 25 years.) The nominations were announced on January 12 and the ceremony will be held on February 27. The full nomination list can be found here.
- The 27th Annual Critics’ Choice Awards. This ceremony is run by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which is the largest organization of film and television critics in the United States (with a current membership of around 250). They tend to nominate more films than the Oscars (this year, the directing and acting categories have 6 nominees as opposed to the Academy’s 5) and have separate categories for genre movies (“Best Sci Fi/Horror Movie”). As such, it is always the case that there is some substantial divergence between this ceremony and the Oscars. Nevertheless, in the last 25 years they have converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 15 times, Best Director 19 times, Best Actor 17 times, and Best Actress 14 times. This year’s nominations were announced on December 13 and the ceremony was supposed to be in January but was delayed to March 13 due to the rise of the omicron variant. The full nomination list can be found here.
- The 75th BAFTA Film Awards. The British equivalent to the Academy Awards, this organization has special importance because it has significant membership overlap with the Academy Awards. (In contrast, no Critics’ Choice or Globe voters are members of the Academy and only a small selection of SAG members are.) They have undergone extraordinary changes in the last couple of years to help increase the diversity of their nominees and these changes to voting make it unclear whether it remains as reliable predictor of the Oscars as it has been in the past. In the last 25 years, BAFTA has converged with the Oscars on the winner of Best Picture 12 times, Best Director 12 times, Best Actor 17 times, and Best Actress 16 times. In an interesting move, they announced their longlist of 15 finalists in each major category on January 12, giving us some insight into what to expect when their nominations are announced on February 3. The ceremony is slated for March 13.
There is certainly still more data to come along, particularly when we learn the winners of the SAG, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA awards and the nominees and winners of the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild awards. But now feels like a good time to take stock of the race. This year, I have done something a bit different and made a power ranking of the top 25 contenders in the top 8 categories that is based on how they fared so far in the awards season.
The 94th Academy Awards Power Rankings
Belfast. The film in the strongest position right now seems to be Kenneth Branagh’s whimsical, black-and-white ode to his childhood in Northern Island. (Click here to read my review of the film.) The film scored nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay at the Globes and Critics’ Choice; won Best Screenplay at the Globes; scored a nomination for Best Ensemble and an individual nomination for Caitríona Balfe in Supporting Actress at SAG; and appears 14 separate times on the BAFTA longlist. I don’t know if it has what it takes to go all the way to big Oscar wins, but it is definitely the strongest contender for major nominations.
The Power of the Dog. Nipping at Belfast’s heels is Jane Campion’s psychologically complex Western. It scored 7 Globe nominations and 3 wins (Best Motion Picture — Drama, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor for Kodi Smit-McPhee), 10 Critics’ Choice nominations, and was cited 14 times on the BAFTA longlist. Some say that it missing out on a nomination in the top SAG category is a mark against it, but I don’t think its prospects are diminished at all given that it received three individual acting nominations (Smit-McPhee, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Kirsten Dunst) and 3 of the last 4 Best Picture winners were omitted from this category.
King Richard. Reinaldo Marcus Green’s biopic of Venus and Serena Williams’s father Richard has performed superbly so far, with nominations for Best Picture (or equivalent) and Best Actor for Will Smith at all the major awards. It also made the BAFTA longlist in all the categories it was expected to. It has yet to score a major nomination for Best Director and was omitted from the Globes’s Best Screenplay category, but this one is still a major contender.
CODA. One of the most pleasant surprises of awards season thus far is the inclusion of CODA. Sian Heder’s film coming-of-age dramedy about a teenage girl who is the only hearing member in her deaf family was a favorite at Sundance over a year ago and premiered on AppleTV+ in August. Few expected it to be “big” enough to persist through awards season. Nevertheless, it scored nominations for Best Picture (or equivalent) and Best Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur) from the Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG; picked up a Best Screenplay nomination from Critics’ Choice; and appeared in the BAFTA longlist in all key categories. Despite the initial doubt, this one is a real player.
Dune. Denis Villeneuve’s epic adaptation of Frank Herbert’s classic science fiction novel not only received very strong reviews, but also has the distinction of being one of the only movies that was not part of an existing franchise to pass the $100 mark at the domestic box office during the pandemic. (Click here to read my review of the film.) Its only nomination from SAG came in the stunt ensemble category (which doesn’t have an Academy equivalent), but it consistently showed up in Best Picture and Best Director at the Globes and Critics Choice and made a strong showing on the BAFTA longlist. This one seems likely to be a major player, especially in the craft categories.
Don’t Look Up. The fourth and final movie on this list to score a nomination in Best Picture (or equivalent) from the Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG, this all-star satire has sharply divided critics and audiences, who can’t agree whether it is cutting-edge satire or painfully obvious “preaching to the choir.” Regardless, voting bodies seem to be going for it and its Academy prospects are strong. The only questions seem to be how much will they go for it and whether any of the cast’s A-list actors will score individual nominations (right now, Leonardo DiCaprio appears the most likely).
West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the classic 1960 Best Picture winner received rapturous praise from critics but stumbled at the box office (which has generally been unkind to non-franchise adult-skewing fare for the whole pandemic). Ariana DeBose is the odds-on favorite in the Best Supporting Actress category for the role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar over 6 decades ago, but its other awards prospects aren’t clear. The Globes and Critics’ Choice nominated it for Best Picture and Best Director and the Globes gave it 3 major wins (including Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy). Its failure to land in any categories outside of Supporting Actress at SAG is concerning, but its tremendous showing in the BAFTA longlists (where it was cited a field-leading 15 times) shows that its Oscar prospects are likely intact.
Licorice Pizza. One of the biggest questions about this year’s Oscar nominations is how much they will embrace Paul Thomas Anderson’s ’70s-set coming-of-age comedy. It scored an impressive 8 Critics’ Choice and 4 Globe nominations, but it failed to win any at the Globes and its only nomination at SAG came for Bradley Cooper’s very brief supporting performance. But it showed up everywhere it needed to at BAFTA and the Academy has shown love to prior films of Anderson’s that showed up very inconsistently at the precursors, so I think it’s a safe bet at least in Picture and Screenplay, with Director, Actress (Alana Haim), and Supporting Actor (Cooper) still being major possibilities.
House of Gucci. Lady Gaga and Jared Leto’s flamboyant turns in Ridley Scott’s period biopic about the high fashion house have been nominated everywhere. However, the film moved up significantly in my power ranking when it unexpectedly scored a nomination for the top award at SAG and over-performed on the BAFTA longlists. This crowd-pleasing hit may have disappointed critics, but it still could be a real player in categories outside of the two acting categories it seems to have secured.
Being the Ricardos. Yet another film on this list that by-and-large disappointed critics but seems to be being embraced by the industry in a big way, Aaron Sorkin’s biopic of television legends Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz picked up across-the-board nominations for Best Actress for Nicole Kidman’s turn as Ball. The Globes and Critics’ Choice also nominated it for Best Screenplay and the Globes and SAG also included Javier Bardem’s turn as Desi Arnaz in Best Actor. Add those inclusions to its strong showing at BAFTA and this one could be a bigger contender than most were expecting.
tick, tick… BOOM! Lin-Manuel Miranda’s musical biopic about Rent composer Jonathan Larson has received across-the-board Best Actor nominations for Andrew Garfield’s turn as Larson. It also scored Best Picture nominations from the Critics Choice and Globes and performed well in the BAFTA longlists. It remains unclear whether the Academy will give the film any love outside of what seems like an assured nomination for Garfield.
The Lost Daughter. Similarly to the above film, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s psychological drama about motherhood has scored across-the-board love for Olivia Colman’s lead performance, but has shown up inconsistently in other categories. The Globes nominated Gyllenhaal for Best Director and both the Globes and Critics Choice included her in Best Screenplay. Add that to a strong showing on the BAFTA longlists and it looks like the film is highly likely for at least Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations.
The Tragedy of Macbeth. Denzel Washington has received across-the-board Best Actor nominations for the titular role in Joel Coen’s adaptation of the Shakespeare tragedy, but that’s about it for the film. The film did well in the BAFTA longlists, however, and is still contending for multiple other nominations (including Frances McDormand’s turn as Lady Macbeth, Kathryn Hunter’s turn as the Witches, and a slew of technical categories).
The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Jessica Chastain has consistently shown up everywhere for her transformative performance as televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker in Michael Showalter’s biopic. However, the film has received no attention outside of her performance and Chastain has been omitted multiple times at the Oscars after performing well in the precursors, so even this nomination is not guaranteed.
Spencer. One of the biggest shocks of awards season is seeing Pablo Larrain’s critically adored film about Princess Diana underperform. Listening to the early critical buzz, it seemed assured that Kristen Stewart would win for her portrayal of Diana and that the film would be a contender in multiple major categories. However, the Globes didn’t give Stewart her presumed win and SAG didn’t even nominate her (and never in the history of the SAG Awards has someone won Best Actress at the Oscars without a SAG nomination). Add to that a very weak showing on the BAFTA longlists and it becomes exceedingly clear that critical love will not be converting into major Academy love.
Nightmare Alley. Guillermo Del Toro’s film noir follow-up to his Best Picture winning 2017 film The Shape of Water has not been able to convert solid reviews and an A-list cast into awards love. It has only shown up sporadically with Best Picture and Director nominations from Critics Choice, a Supporting Actress nomination for Cate Blanchett at SAG, a complete shutout at the Globes, and not even making the BAFTA longlists in the major categories. If this one sees any Oscar attention, it looks like it will be relegated to the many technical categories.
Cyrano. Joe Wright’s adaptation of the stage musical that itself was adapted from the classic 1897 novel Cyrano de Bergerac received Best Actor nominations for star Peter Dinklage at the Critics Choice and Globes and got an additional nomination for Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy from the Globes. Its continually shifting release date is problematic, but it could surprise as it releases right at the peak of voting.
Passing. Bizarrely, despite being one of the year’s most critically acclaimed films, Rebecca Hall’s period drama Passing didn’t receive a single Critics’ Choice nomination. However, it bounced back by scoring nominations for Ruth Negga’s supporting turn from the Globes and SAG and appearing in several key categories on the BAFTA longlists. It’s still possible that this one scores a couple of major Oscar nominations.
The Tender Bar. George Clooney’s coming-of-age drama disappointed critics, but Ben Affleck’s supporting turn was nominated by the Globes and SAG. It’s possible, but far from guaranteed, that Affleck scores his first acting nomination this year, despite already having two Oscars (one for producing Argo and one for co-writing Good Will Hunting.)
Respect. After opening to middling reviews and box office in August, Liesl Tommy’s biopic of the Aretha Franklin bounced back with a Best Actress SAG nomination for Jennifer Hudson’s turn as the Queen of Soul. With Hudson being a previous winner and in an Academy-friendly biopic, she could very well make the Oscar cut.
Mass. Fran Kranz’s searing drama about families torn apart by violence has its fair share of passionate supporters, at least among critics and film bloggers. But so far its only major citation has been a Supporting Actress nomination at the Critics’ Choice Awards for Ann Dowd’s supporting turn.
Drive My Car. Japan’s entry into the Best International Feature race became the first film since 2010’s The Social Network to win the trifecta of critics awards from the New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics. However, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s drama has yet to score a major nomination outside of the International Feature category and seems unlikely to go the way of Parasite (an international feature that started off as a long shot and went on to win 4 Oscars, including Best Picture).
Parallel Mothers. Like Drive My Car, Pedro Almodovar’s latest offering has been an enormous hit with critics but has yet to score a major nomination outside of the International Feature category. But you can never count out Penelope Cruz, given that she is beloved by the Academy and they have been known to nominate actors in international films that were snubbed in the precursors (e.g., Marina de Tavira’s turn in Roma a few years ago).
The French Dispatch. Wes Anderson’s first live-action film since the 2014 Oscar-winner The Grand Budapest Hotel has an incredible pedigree in front of and behind the camera, but the anthology comedy film has shown up virtually nowhere and seems to have no real Oscar shot.
C’mon C’mon. Despite rapturous critical acclaim, Mike Mills’ drama has failed to show up anywhere, despite the raves for its direction, screenplay, and the performances by Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann, and Woody Norman.
Bonus: What about all this buzz about Marvel blockbuster Spiderman: No Way Home getting nominated for Best Picture? With the film’s record- breaking box office, critical acclaim, and recent release date, it is certainly possible. However, it has not been nominated for any award at any major precursors to date and the only other time a superhero movie was nominated in the category was Black Panther, which scored major precursor nominations and had a much stronger awards season narrative. I suspect that if any blockbuster franchise film makes it into the Best Picture category it will actually be No Time To Die. The 25th James Bond film was a critical and commercial success, marked Daniel Craig’s final appearance as Bond, and was cited 12 times on BAFTA’s longlists.
The State of the Race
I currently feel quite confident at predicting the following seven films in major categories, including Best Picture: Belfast, The Power of the Dog, King Richard, CODA, Dune, Don’t Look Up, and West Side Story. What will round out the list of 10 Best Picture nominees is anyone’s guess but will likely come from the following group — Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth, House of Gucci, Being the Ricardos, The Lost Daughter, and tick, tick…BOOM! But this is a year where we could see more surprises than usual given the changes in timing and voting methods for numerous precursors and the general lack of unanimously adored frontrunners.
The Oscar nominations will be announced on February 8 and I will be back with my final predictions in each major category in the days leading up to the announcement.
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