Everything You Need to Know About the 94th Academy Awards

On Sunday, March 27th, the long and windy road to the 94th Academy Awards come to an end when the telecast airs live on ABC. After last year’s pandemic-affected ceremony hit all-time rating lows, numerous controversial decisions have been made that the Academy and ABC hope will make the show more accessible for viewers. Here, I preview the telecast and provide predictions for who will win in all 23 categories.

This article is about who I think will win the Oscars this year. To find out who I think should win the top Oscars this year, check out my articles ranking the four acting categories and the contenders in the screenplay, directing, and Best Picture categories

The Road to the 94th Academy Awards

Last year’s Oscar ceremony was a case study in diametric opposites. The winners were genuinely inspired, with the top eight awards being taken by extraordinary films — Nomadland, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, and Promising Young Woman. The ceremony, however, was a profound disappointment. Oscar-winning director Steven Soderbergh’s attempt to make the evening more cinematic were generally pretentious (e.g., let’s frame the acceptance speeches from an artsy, indirect angle!), led the show to drag (e.g., let’s not cut off any of the winners and let them talk as long as they want), or were outright disastrous (e.g., presenting Best Actor last hoping to end an emotional high note with a posthumous win for Chadwick Boseman, only to have it go to Anthony Hopkins who couldn’t attend). The host-less ceremony was without any sense of cohesion or personality and the “bits” were largely cringe-inducing, reaching their nadir with a staged bit in which septuagenarian film legend Glenn Close was forced to twerk for the camera.

Unsurprisingly, it was the least-viewed Oscar ceremony in history.

It must be said that the telecast did not fail due to COVID restrictions. It was technically seamless despite various locations being integrated and almost all of the stars were in attendance. But at the same time, the impact of the pandemic on the 93rd Academy Awards cannot be overstated. The Oscars were held later than ever before and for the first time extended the eligibility window beyond 12 months and allowed films that premiered on streaming to be eligible. Campaigning was upended with “For Your Consideration” events having to be canceled or conducted virtually. Furthermore, the civil unrest in the United States and globally during the prior year led the Academy to get serious about issues of equity, diversity, and inclusion, which led to several internal changes.

The lead-up to this year’s ceremony has found the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (which puts on the Academy Awards) and ABC (which airs the Academy Awards) focused on a desperate, shameless, and defiant bid to increase ratings by making the event shorter and more populist. The changes that have been announced to date have largely been met with passionate opposition by industry members and film lovers, but the Academy and ABC are digging in their heels. Some are bracing for an all-time train wreck of a ceremony, but the Academy and ABC seem confident that they can pull it off.

Below, I dive into what we know about the ceremony itself before sharing my predictions in all 23 categories.

Previewing the 94th Academy Awards Ceremony

Last year, much was unknown about the ceremony in the days leading up to it. This year, the Academy and ABC have been much more forthcoming with details. Here is what we know.

The ceremony will be produced by Will Packer, perhaps best known as the producer of films like Ride Along and Girls Trip, and directed by awards show veteran Glenn Weiss, who has previously directed 20 Tony Awards ceremonies and 6 Academy Awards ceremonies.
For the first time in 4 years, the ceremony will have a host. And for the first time the show will have 3 hosts, reportedly each taking the lead in a different hour of the telecast. The Academy and ABC went through dozens of options for hosts and ended up settling on the unlikely trio of comedians Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes and actress Regina Hall. (I still wish they had managed to lure the Only Murders in the Building trio of Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez, who I suspect would have been terrific, but I hold out cautious optimism for this lineup.)
For the first time ever, several competitive awards will be awarded outside of the main ceremony. This decision reportedly resulted from threats made by ABC to cancel the ceremony if efforts were not made to make it shorter and faster-paced and has been met with an overwhelmingly negative reception. The apparent plan is to have Jason Momoa and Josh Brolin (who both co-starred in Dune) to hand out 8 awards in the hour preceding the ceremony and to have these presentations edited into the main show. It seems unlikely to me that the few minutes that will be saved by this will induce anyone who was on the fence to watch and it is guaranteed to enrage the audience that the Oscars should be catering most to (film enthusiasts and their own membership). Interestingly, this year’s Oscar theme is “Film Lovers Unite,” which is astoundingly tone deaf considering how divisive the changes they have made to the ceremony have been.
Another shameless bid to make the show more popular amongst general film audiences was the addition of two new honors that are voted on by film fans on Twitter. The #OscarsFanFavorite will honor the film viewers loved most this year. It remains a better idea than the ill-conceived Oscar for Best Popular Film that was floated a few years ago, but it remains pandering and cringe-inducing. (It seems almost certain to go to record-breaking Marvel film Spider-Man: No Way Home, but reports that early voting had Amazon’s reviled Cinderella remake and the obscure Johnny Depp film Minamata leading the way suggest that this could backfire spectacularly.) The other award is for #OscarsCheerMoment, the finalists were recently and bizarrely revealed to include a mix of films over the last 25 years including Avengers: Endgame, Dreamgirls, and The Matrix alongside this year’s Spider-Man: No Way Home and Zack Snyder’s Justice League.
Of the 5 Best Original Song nominees, 4 will be performed on the telecast. Beyonce will perform “Be Alive” from King Richard, Sebastian Yatra will perform “Dos Ortugas” from Encanto, Reba McEntire will perform “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days, and Billie Eilish and her brother FINNEAS will perform the title track from No Time To Die (aka James Bond 25). Interestingly, the cast of Encanto will also perform the film’s recent #1 smash “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” despite the fact that it is not nominated. (Disney decided to campaign “Dos Ortugas” instead of “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” before the latter broke out in an unprecedented way.) The 5th nominee — Van Morrison’s “Down to Joy” from Belfast — will not be performed on the telecast as Morrison declined the offer to perform.
The list of presenters announced thus far is, well, eclectic. Let’s start with the usual suspects. As is the tradition, last year’s 4 acting winners were invited to present. Of these, 3 are confirmed— Anthony Hopkins, Youn Yuh-jung, and Daniel Kaluuya. (Still no word on whether Frances McDormand will appear.) Beloved actors like Jennifer Garner, Bill Murray, Kevin Costner, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Jake Gyllenhaal will also present. There are rumors of numerous high-profile cast reunions, which appear to include White Men Can’t Jump (Wesley Snipes, Woody Harrelson, and Rosie Perez are all confirmed) and Pulp Fiction (John Travolta, Uma Thurman, and Samuel L. Jackson are confirmed). The living cast members of The Godfather are slated to reunite in honor of the film’s 50th anniversary. (And, frankly, the Academy would be fools not to reunite Oscar winners Liza Minnelli and Joel Grey given that Cabaret also turns 50 this year.) And the Oscars managed to get Lady Gaga to come and present, even though she shockingly did not make the final five for Best Actress this year. But then there are some bizarre choices. Given King Richard’s wonderful showing it makes sense that Venus and Serena Williams will present, but why Tony Hawk and Shaun White? I get why hot young actors like Simu Liu, Jacob Elordi, and Zoe Kravitz are invited, but why musicians like DJ Khaled, Jill Scott, Shawn Mendes, and Sean Combs (aka P. Diddy aka Puff Daddy)? Again, I sincerely doubt branching out to include non-film industry presenters is really what is needed to entice non-Oscar fans to watch the ceremony.

Here’s another thing we know — even if the inclusion of more popular films this year (e.g. Dune, Don’t Look Up, Encanto), more A-listers at the ceremony (e.g., Lady Gaga, Beyonce, Venus and Serena Williams), and heavier promotion leads to an uptick in ratings, the downward trend for awards show viewership will continue. I sincerely and strongly doubt that the changes the Academy and ABC made will result in a strong enough viewership uptick or positive reception among the masses to justify the damage they have done by alienating film lovers and their own membership.

PREDICTING THE WINNERS IN ALL 23 CATEGORIES

Should you even bother taking my predictions seriously? Well, judge for yourself. Last year, I correctly guessed 16 out of the 23 categories (70%). I missed both lead acting categories (I predicted Carey Mulligan and Chadwick Boseman to triumph over Frances McDormand and Anthony Hopkins), documentary short, cinematography, film editing, and song. This was a step down from the 19/24 (79%) I scored the previous year, but given how extraordinarily difficult the race was to predict last year, I wasn’t too hard on myself.

Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 23 categories.

The Specialty Film Categories:

Best Animated Feature: Encanto; Flee; Luca; The Mitchells vs. the Machines; Ray and the Last Dragon. This impressive and highly competitive category has 3 frontrunners — recent Disney smash Encanto, the quirky and critically adored The Mitchells vs. The Machines, and the wrenching Flee (which has the unprecedented distinction of also being nominated in the Documentary Feature and International Feature categories). Any of the 3 could take it, but it is unwise to bet against a well-received Disney movie here. Will Win: Encanto Possible Upset: Flee

Best International Film: Drive My Car (Japan); Flee (Denmark); The Hand of God (Italy); Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan); The Worst Person in the World (Norway). Given that it made its way into three top categories (Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay), Japan’s Drive My Car is the obvious frontrunner here. However, Norway’s The Worst Person in the World is a more accessible film that peaked at just the right time, so there is a possibility of an upset. Will Win: Drive My Car Possible Upset: The Worst Person in the World

Best Documentary Feature: Ascension; Attica; Flee; Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised); Writing with Fire. The general consensus appears to be that QuestLove’s Summer of Soul, which chronicles the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival, is out front for the win. I won’t question that assumption, but I will say that I find it hard to believe that Flee will lose all three of its categories and I suspect that it could upset here. Will Win: Summer of Soul Possible Upset: Flee

Best Documentary Short Subject: Audible; Lead Me Home; The Queen of Basketball; Three Songs for Benazir; When We Were Bullies. The general consensus seems to be that The Queen of Basketball will take it, but I am a cynic who suspects that most Academy voters have not seen the shorts and instead vote based on synopsis. And Three Songs for Benazir has the most Academy-friendly synopsis of them all. Will Win: Three Songs for Benazir Possible Upset: The Queen of Basketball

Best Animated Short Film: Affairs of the Art; Bestia; BoxBallet; Robin Robin; The Windshield Wiper. I suspect that the most accessible one will win here and that is undoubtedly Robin Robin, which is widely available on Netflix and has a straightforward premise and animation style. If there’s an upset, I suspect the philosophical The Windshield Wiper is it. Will Win: Robin Robin Possible Upset: The Windshield Wiper

Best Live Action Short Film: Ala Kachuu — Take and Run; The Dress; The Long Goodbye; On My Mind; Please Hold. Normally, I would again say that the Academy is likely to vote on premise alone here and that Ala Kachuu — Take and Run, about a Kyrgyz girl who flls victim to bride kidnapping, would take this in a walk. But this category has something rare this year — star power. Riz Ahmed, a nominee for Best Actor last year, has a short film in contention and I suspect that will be enough for some voters to tick the box. Will Win: The Long Goodbye Possible Upset: Ala Kachuu — Take and Run

The Technical/Craft Categories:

Best Original Score: Don’t Look Up; Dune; Encanto; Prallel Mothers; The Power of the Dog. There are 3 strong contenders here. Germaine Franco’s score for Encanto has the benefit of having its music be well-recognized and widely adored (just look at the recent Billboard Hot 100 reign of “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”), The Power of the Dog has a memorable score by Johnny Greenwood that marked his second acclaimed score of the year (after Spencer), and beloved veteran Hans Zimmer has the striking and memorable score for Dune that could bring him his first win in this category since 1994’s The Lion King (he has been nominated and lost 9 times since then). Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song: “Be Alive,” King Richard; “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto; “Down to Joy,” Belfast; “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die; “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days. One thing seems assured in this highly competitive category — Diane Warren will extend her record losing streak (she is 0-for-12 to date in this category). It also seems unlikely that Van Morrison or Beyonce will add Oscars to their list of accolades this year. This looks to be a race between “No Time to Die,” which is written and performed by Hollywood darling Billie Elish and follows two previous Bond themes that won this award, and the beloved Lin-Manuel Miranda, who could achieve the rare EGOT with a win here. If Disney had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” here, I think Miranda would be an easy win, but I suspect he may have to wait for his EGOT. Will Win: “No Time to Die” Possible Upset: “Dos Oruguitas”

Best Cinematography: Dune; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; The Tragedy of Macbeth; West Side Story. This is a very strong and competitive category that I suspect will come down to the breathtaking visual splendor of Dune and the sweeping vistas and devastating closeups of The Power of the Dog. The latter would result in the first woman to win this award in its 94-year history, but I suspect Dune will be too stunning to ignore. Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design: Cruella; Cyrano; Dune; Nightmare Alley; West Side Story. The smart money here is on Cruella, given that it had the most celebrated costumes of the year and is a film about costume design. If there is a challenger, I expect it to be the daring futuristic wardrobes of Dune. Will Win: Cruella Possible Upset: Dune

Best Sound Design: Belfast; Dune; No Time To Die; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story. More often than not, this award goes to big-budget spectacles and this year should be no exception. This looks to be a race between the sci-fi epic Dune and the musical extravaganza West Side Story. Both have about an equal shot, but I lean toward Dune. Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: West Side Story

Best Production Design: Dune; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; The Tragedy of Macbeth; West Side Story. All five are deserving nominees and have a shot at the win, but this race seems to be down to the futuristic, fictional world created for Dune and the recreation of World War II era America for Nightmare Alley. My money is on Dune, but this is a race ripe for an upset. Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: Nightmare Alley

Best Film Editing: Don’t Look Up; Dune; King Richard; The Power of the Dog; tick, tick…BOOM! The recent wins by King Richard and tick, tick…BOOM! at the American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards threw this race into chaos. But in the past decade, the ACE Awards have diverged with the Oscars more than they have converged, so I still think it is a race between Dune and The Power of the Dog, with the former being too epic to ignore. Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: The Power of the Dog

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Coming 2 America; Cruella; Dune; The Eyes of Tammy Faye; House of Gucci. In each of the last 4 years, this award went to a biopic that transformed well-known actors into famous historical figures. I expect them to follow suit this year by giving the award to the folks who transformed Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye Bakker. Of note, the two years before the biopic streak began the award went to sci-fi/action films, so there is precedent for Dune to upset here. Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye Possible Upset: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune; Free Guy; No Time to Die; Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings; Spider-Man: No Way Home. In a year without Dune, I suspect the Academy would throw a bone to Spider-Man here as a way of rewarding its record-smashing box office. But I suspect that Marvel will have to wait for its first Oscar. Will Win: Dune Possible Upset: Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Top 8:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sian Heder, CODA; Ryusuke Hmaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car; Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog. I suspect that Drive My Car and The Lost Daughter will be too opaque and challenging for many Academy voters and that Dune will be written off as more of a visual achievement than a screenwriting one. That leaves a neck-and-neck race between The Power of the Dog and CODA. If you asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said that Campion had this one in the bag, but the recent surge in love for CODA has convinced me that the Academy is likely to fete Heder here. Will Win: Sian Heder Possible Upset: Jane Campion

Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up; Zach Baylin, King Richard; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World. This one is perhaps just as difficult to predict as Best Actress. Of the 5 nominated screenplays, 4 of them have had serious criticisms lobbed against them and the one that is most adored is by far the least seen (the Norwegian romantic dramedy The Worst Person in the World). Any of the five could take it, but I suspect that this will be a race between Anderson and Branagh, who now have a combined 19 Oscar nominations with 0 wins. I lean toward Branagh given that he made what I suspect will be the more likable and accessible film among Academy members, but I suspect that they are even more eager to give Anderson a win than Branagh. (I hope Vogt and Trier eke out a win, though, as it was far and away my favorite of the screenplays nominated here). Will Win: Kenneth Branagh Possible Upset: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Supporting Actor: Ciaran Hinds, Belfast; Troy Kotsur, CODA; Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog; Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog; JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos. Hinds, Simmons, and Plemons have very little buzz this year, leaving a two-way race between Smit-McPhee and Kotsur. Initially, I thought Smit-McPhee was a shoo-in with his early wins at the Globes and various critics awards and the fact that he gave arguably the most complex performance in the year’s most nominated film. However, the wave of love and support for Kotsur’s turn as a deaf fisherman grappling with change in CODA is absolutely undeniable. He is far out front for the win. Will Win: Troy Kotsur Possible Upset: Kodi Smit-McPhee

Best Supporting Actress: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard. Buckley and Dench were wildly unexpected nominees and I suspect they have little shot at taking the gold. Ellis was universally adored, but the buzz for her performance has been drowned out by the buzz for her on-screen husband’s (which is a shame, because I thought she was better). Dunst is a never-nominated, well-liked industry veteran who turned in powerful work in the year’s most nominated film. In another year, she would be the clear frontrunner. But this year, she has to face off against Ariana DeBose, who has swept the precursors so far and gave an unforgettable performance as Anita in West Side Story. The fact that she is likely to win for the same role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar 60 years ago is a narrative that will likely be irresistible to even skeptical voters. Will Win: Ariana DeBose Possible Upset: Kirsten Dunst

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog; Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!; Will Smith, King Richard; Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth. Previous winners Washington and Bardem have virtually no shot here, leaving the race down to 3. Smith is far out in the lead having won the BAFTA, Screen Actors Guild, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe (Drama). It is unwise to bet against him. I had long thought that Cumberbatch would be a strong contender to upset (and he is certainly my choice), but the smart money is on Garfield in terms of possible upsets given the recent wave of positive buzz for his turn as Jonathan Larson in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut. Will Win: Will Smith Possible Upset: Andrew Garfield

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos; Kristen Stewart, Spencer. This has consistently been the hardest category to predict since the beginning of the race and got even more complicated recently when BAFTA (a normally reliable predictor of this award) selected a completely separate slate of women, Lady Gaga (the only person to get nominated by every Oscar precursor) was snubbed, and Jessica Chastain came seemingly out of nowhere with high-profile wins at the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice Awards. I am predicting Chastain, given that she is a two-time previous nominee who has yet to win, is well-liked in the industry, and is nominated for her passion project (which also happens to be an Academy-friendly biopic). But, honestly, any of these five women could win. I suspect that the divisive reception of Kidman and Spencer’s films will hurt their chances, though, and that the real contenders for an upset are Colman (who you can never count out after her recent upsets both in this category for The Favourite and at the Emmys for The Crown) and Cruz (whose surprise inclusion was followed by a wave of passionate buzz for her performance). Will Win: Jessica Chastain Possible Upset: Penelope Cruz

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story. Jane Campion seems largely assured to become the third woman (and second consecutive) to take home this award. She got a bit of bad press recently (see that misguided comment about the Williams sisters) and her film is clearly not loved by all Academy members (here’s looking at you Sam Elliott), but she has been so far out in the lead for so long that I am not sure those factors will matter. If there is an upset, it will be Kenneth Branagh or Steven Spielberg. I suspect that many wishing to reward Branagh will vote for him in Original Screenplay instead, making Spielberg’s breathtaking work on West Side Story the most likely alternative. It certainly doesn’t hurt that passion for West Side Story peaked at the right time. Will Win: Jane Campion Possible Upset: Steven Spielberg

Best Picture: Belfast; CODA; Don’t Look Up; Drive My Car; Dune; King Richard; Licorice Pizza; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story. The race for the top award is a highly competitive one, with presumed frontrunner The Power of the Dog being overtaken by CODA recently due to the latter’s high-profile wins at the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild Awards. CODA could very well be the winner, but I am standing firm with my prediction for The Power of the Dog. The film won several high-profile awards of its own, has four times the number of nominations CODA does, and is more traditional Oscar fare. But the surge in love for CODA is very strong and very real. The other 8 contenders each have major detractors including being too esoteric (Drive My Car), being too controversial (Licorice Pizza), getting abysmal reviews (Don’t Look Up), failing to garner nominations in any other major category (Nightmare Alley), being a genre picture that is also the first part of a two-parter (Dune), being a remake of a previous Best Picture winner (West Side Story), having declining buzz (Belfast), and being considered more of an acting showcase than a great film (King Richard). Will Win: The Power of the Dog Possible Upset: CODA

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