2019 NBA Draft — Ranking the Small Forwards

Every NBA team needs wing help, and it just happens to be the deepest position in the 2019 draft. Who should teams target?

NBA DRAFT WEEK IS HERE, AND WE SAVED THE BEST POSITION RANKINGS FOR LAST. It’s a top-light draft in 2019 but super deep with a glut of talented and versatile wings. We already covered the smaller wings in the Shooting Guards rankings. Now it’s time to look at bigger wings, the traditional Small Forwards, where as many as 11 different players could have a chance of hearing their name called in the first round on Thursday night.

The NBA is increasingly becoming a wing league. Many teams effectively play a point guard, a center, and some combination of three wings. Every team needs more wings, even the ones playing deep into the playoffs, and every team covets the versatility, length, and options from a talented wing. There’s no elite wing prospect in the 2019 NBA Draft class, but there are plenty of really intriguing players with upside. That includes blue-blood freshmen like Duke’s Cam Reddish and North Carolina’s Nassir Little, upperclassmen like Tennessee’s Grant Williams and Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter, and any number of defensive stars and three-and-D role players.

This is our final positional rankings for the 2019 draft, so if you don’t see someone here, check one of the other positional groups with the links below. If they’re a bit smaller, they’re probably among the Shooting Guards. If a bit less fluid or quick, they might be with the Power Forwards. The NBA is increasingly positionless, so don’t focus on the grouping, just the ranking and profiles within. Still, this remains the biggest group of all, with 17 draft-worthy prospects. Let’s take a look at each, with a full scouting report breakdown plus NBA expectations and team fit.

TIER I — THE READY-MADE PLAYOFF CONTRIBUTORS

1. Grant Williams, Tennessee

Profile

Grant Williams is an undersized big man who doesn’t totally fit with the wings because he doesn’t totally fit anywhere, except on a winning team. Williams is 6'7.5" with just a 6'10" wingspan but he’s a big, physical dude at 240 pounds. He plays like a four-year senior but is actually about the age of a sophomore. Williams was the heart and soul superstar of a Tennessee team that way overachieved this year. He’s the sort of guy you gush nonsensical intangibles on, a warrior who came to battle and fought for his team every game.

Scouting analysis

Grant Williams does a little bit of everything. He’s an old school player that doesn’t look like he fits in the NBA. He gets the ball in the high post and slows everything down, and he plays a physical 90s style game on both offense and defense. Williams fills up the box score. He plays stout defense, passes the ball well, scores within the flow of the game, and creates big plays on defense.

Think P.J. Tucker on defense. Williams does all the little things. He rotates quickly and his incredible instincts, and he always seems to be in the right place and loves absorbing contact and taking the charge. Tucker played for this same coach Rick Barnes in college, so it makes sense that there’s a lot of similarities. Williams is decent on-ball defender but a terrific team defender. He’s a little slow to stay with guys on the perimeter on switches, but he controls the paint and always looks in control of the game. Williams doesn’t pop as an athlete, but his elite lane agility score at the Combine shows his outstanding ability to slide his feet and to read and react.

Grant’s basketball IQ and feel for the game are out of this world. He processes things so quickly, and it informs the entirety of his game. Williams plays at his own pace, like the game has slowed down for him. His intution and decision making more than make up for his lack of athleticism and size, and he uses his outstanding timing to meet guys at the perfect moment on defense. My favorite part of the entire Combine was Grant Williams’s interview. You can just tell he sees the game different than everyone else. He immediately recognizes and calls out plays on film, and he glows about his teammates and talks about how he stays vertical on defense and plays with defensive IQ. You can hear the work ethic and love of the game, the leadership, in his voice. I can’t help myself. I see and hear Draymond Green.

Grant Williams is an elite passer, especially for a player of his size. Again, it’s the IQ that sets him apart, along with his ability to see and hit unique passing angles at his size. It’s important he plays for a team that lets him touch the ball enough for his passing to matter. It’s hard to say yet whether Williams will be able to hit the NBA three, since he made only 30 in three years at Tennessee, but I’m very optimistic. Williams made 50% of his long twos this year on a lot of attempts, per The Stepien, and he hit 82% of his free throws. He also finished 50% of his short range shots and 72% at the rim, both outstanding numbers, exhibiting his terrific touch. Williams can’t hit the three yet, but it’s more likely than not that he’ll hit it soon enough. Williams also sets really mean screens. He will flourish if he has the chance to play the pick-and-roll with an elite NBA handler, setting the screen, able to hit the pop, or rolling downhill with the ball making decisions.

On top of all that, Grant Williams just comes to play. He can play for my team any day of the week because he just flat out shows up. When the game is tight late, Grant is going to make a winning play. Maybe he’ll draw a charge, or maybe he’ll battle for a board in the post. He might hit a big shot or make a key pass. He’s absolutely going to be involved, doing the big things and the little things. He might not turn out to be Draymond Green in the pros, but how much more can you sound like a college Draymond? Williams made every big play down the stretch in Tennessee’s March Madness wins, in their close battle against Kentucky, and in their final loss to Purdue. He just shows up every single time.

NBA expectations

Grant Williams is not Draymond Green, because there is only one Draymond Green. But man does he look like a heck of an analog, from his preternatural instincts on both ends to his leadership and intangibles, his potential offensive role, and his knack for making big winning plays with everything on the line. I don’t know what position Williams starts at, but I know I want him in my closing lineup, and I want him touching the ball. He’s never going to touch Draymond as a defender, but I want him in that role offensively. Grant Williams is absolutely a 16-game player. He is a winner and he is intangibles and I can’t explain him away but I want him on my team, period.

Best team fits

You want Grant Williams on a team with an awesome pick-and-roll guard, preferably without a star center to get in the way. That sets up those screen-and-rolls to the basket, and it puts him in those downhill 4-on-3 Draymond type situations. He’s an obvious fit in Golden State or Houston. I really love him in Atlanta, where they’re building Warriors East and could use his toughness in that Draymond role with Trae Young. He’d also fit well with Dame and C.J. in Portland, and I’m intrigued by him in OKC or in Brooklyn.

2. De’Andre Hunter, Virginia

Profile

De’Andre Hunter was the bedrock of the national champion Virginia basketball team. He’s an older sophomore with a big strong frame and a hyper-efficient scoring arsenal. Hunter hit 44% of his threes and scored efficiently at every level, and he looked like a man among boys. He is a tough, physical defender with a confident dribble pull-up and a textbook game.

Scouting analysis

Hunter’s size really jumps out when you watch. He has huge, broad shoulders and plays bigger than his listed frame, and I think he’s probably more of a four than a three in the NBA, in part because he has the size to defend bigs and partly because his size limits his quickness a bit on the perimeter. Hunter’s best attribute is his defense. Hunter was typically tasked with guarding the opponent’s top player, and he was up to the task, bodying guys up on defense and getting into them physically. Hunter plays tough, physical D without fouling and is super well-coached, always in the right place in team defense. Hunter ranked in the 99th percentile in pick-and-roll defense this year, allowing a meager 0.30 points per possession, per Synergy. Holy cow.

Offensively, Hunter is a model of efficiency. His jump shot has a slow release and doesn’t always look perfect, but it’s effective, and he loves the dribble pull-up from the nail. His shooting numbers at every level are pristine. Hunter has a patient dribble and can do a lot of the attacking things a guy like Rui Hachimura does but doesn’t always need to in this offense. I can’t decide if Virginia’s efficient offense is maximizing Hunter already or muting his upside, but I think it’s the former. He doesn’t have a ton of shake and I’m not sold on his finishing ability, so I think he’s more like a third or fourth option on offense, a spot-up shooter that can occasionally do something in the right matchup. That’s valuable but it lacks a certain star quality to it.

I worry a little about the lack of pop and burst athletically and about the lack of peripheral numbers. Hunter averages only five rebounds and two assists, and for all his defensive ability, he’s well under a steal and a block per game. Hunter is almost too well coached. I don’t know if I buy his instincts and feel for the game as much as his just being a robot that makes the right decision every time. As Cole Zwicker described it, Hunter “plays like he’s directly translating what he reads in a fundamentals manual onto the floor.” There’s not much creativity to his game, no ability to read and react, to step in on help defense or to create something on offense. There’s comfort in that because Hunter makes so many by-the-book decisions, and it can feel a bit Kawhi-like at times, but I don’t think it’s that. I think there’s just a little feel missing from the game, a lack of instincts and some slow decision making. That limit’s Hunter’s ultimate upside. Sometimes you need a star to gamble and bank on talent. He reminds me of Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins in his inability to freelance and make something out of nothing.

NBA expectations

Still, we’re nitpicking at a player that brings a whole lot to the table and takes very little off of it, and that’s what makes Hunter such a valuable pick. He’s a building block guy and a player that could’ve slotted into any playoff rotation in the NBA this spring immediately and provided valuable shooting and defense on the wing. Every team in the NBA can use a De’Andre Hunter. Offensively, he reminds me a bit of Khris Middleton with his mid-range and pull-up game, and he’s much more valuable than Middleton on defense. I think Hunter ends up as the third or fourth option on offense and the second best defender. That’s a pretty valuable player, even if it’s not a star.

I see Hunter translating as something in the range of a +2 offensive player and a +1 to +1.5 on defense, making him a potential elite role player type, and that makes a lot of sense. He can guard two to four, maybe one to four, and he plays like a veteran. He’s going to raise some team’s floor immensely because he’ll never really hurt the team, but he doesn’t raise the ceiling a ton.

Best team fits

Phoenix is my favorite Hunter fit at the top of the draft. I don’t love their Booker-Ayton combo, but surrounding those two with Mikal Bridges, De’Anthony Melton, and Hunter as low-usage, high-IQ defenders would be super interesting. I like Hunter to Atlanta or Minnesota a lot of he slides. I think he’s fine in New Orleans or Chicago. I’m not as excited about Hunter in New York, Cleveland, or Washington, where he doesn’t really have any talent around him to elevate and doesn’t add much star potential.

TIER II — THE LOTTERY TICKET

3. Cam Reddish, Duke

Profile

Cam Reddish entered the year as one of three superstar Duke talents, a presumed top-5 pick. He never really found his role with the Blue Devils, struggling to get consistent touches and never really putting it all together. Reddish has great size for a wing and huge potential, and many expected him to be a wing creator and attacker in the Tracy McGrady mold, but it hasn’t come to fruition. At Duke he played more of a 3+D role but didn’t consistently hit threes and was often lost on defense. He is talented but confusing.

Scouting analysis

The on-paper profile for Reddish certainly looks the part of a top-5 pick. He stands 6'8" with an 8'10" reach, the body of wing stars like Paul George and Scottie Pippen. He’s played on the ball most of his career and has one of the prettiest shots you’ll see, so add up a pretty shot with creation and dribbling ability and a huge frame and it’s easy to drool over the potential here.

So why did he potential never hit at Duke? Reddish shot under 36% from the field, including 33% from deep and an abysmal 39% on twos. The three-point percentage is obviously bad, but the two-point percentage is shocking and very concerning. The list of players to score that poorly inside the arc and succeed in the NBA is almost zero. The shot — and results — are far, far better off the catch-and-shoot in rhythm. That shot can look so sweet, but the truth is that his results weren’t fluky. He’s never hit threes consistently at any level, making only 32% of his 510 trackable threes across all competitions. Reddish shot 51% at the rim this year and an atrocious 21% from short range, per The Stepien. And he is just awful off the dribble. If Reddish puts it on the floor and attacks the rim, bad things happen. He’s either getting a charge or turning it over or missing. Ben Rubin thinks he dribbles with his head down and that a better eye level could lead to better decision making and fewer turnovers. Hopefully that’s it, because it’s really bad.

Defensively, Reddish has potential but gives inconsistent effort. He’s pretty good defending on the ball thanks to his frame, and he has a really good steal rate especially for his size, typically a great marker for NBA stardom. He’s good closing out on shooters. But off-ball, his defense is inconsistent, and his instincts and motor switch off at times. The instincts flash, and he makes some big defensive plays, so there’s hope he could get there with more coaching.

I cringed whenever the ball was in Reddish’s hands, unless it went immediately up as a shot. He has some passing acumen, but it comes and goes, and his decision making on the move is questionable… if you’re being kind. The effort comes and goes a bit, though I think the game typically comes so easy to him a la TMac that he gets a bit of a bad rap. Physically, I think Reddish is a bit overrated as an athlete. He doesn’t have the pop to finish through or over guys, and his rebounding numbers are really weak for a guy his size. Jackson Hoy’s measurement tool says Reddish plays like he’s 6'4", a full five inches smaller than his actual size.

So if you have a 3+D wing that doesn’t use his tantalizing size and doesn’t hit threes, than what exactly do you have?

NBA expectations

Reddish never looked comfortable all year, like a guy who never understood his role and never knew when he’d get his next shot. I wonder if there’s a bit of the same problem Chris Bosh and Kevin Love had adjusting as the third star on LeBron’s teams. It took those superstars more than a full NBA season to adjust to a vastly different role. But when Reddish got out of his head and the winning instincts took over in the game’s biggest moments, when he didn’t have time to think, a lot of good things happened. He made a huge dribble three late against UCF to save the season and made several instinctive game saving plays against Virginia Tech. And it was Reddish, not Zion or R.J., who was at the heart of the epic Louisville comeback. We also know Reddish was hurt near the end of the season, enough to miss a bunch of tournament games, so there’s a chance he was playing through injury much of the season. These are all excuses and explaining things away, but they make a lot of sense.

Very little I saw on the court this year and almost nothing in Reddish’s numbers make him look like anything other than a gigantic bust. And yet somehow he ended up in my top 10 anyway. Because my instincts tell me there’s something there. I think the weird role change and the injury stuff matters, and Reddish showing up when he played instinctively matters. I think there’s a ton of talent and potential there, and more than enough flashes to believe it can be tapped into. We’ve seen a lot of Kentucky prospects over the years show much more in the NBA than they ever did in college, thanks to being pigeonholed in a role that didn’t suit them by John Calipari. I really wonder if that was the case with Reddish. It feels like there’s something there.

In the end, I think Reddish has weirdly balanced of potential outcomes. He certainly could bust. That’s easy enough to see for all the reasons above. He could also turn into a high-level 3+D guy, maybe something like Otto Porter or Rashard Lewis. That’s not what anyone thought he was going to be, but it’s still a really positive outcome. Those guys are good, valuable NBA players. And yes, I do still think there’s some superstar upside. Reddish was a top-2 player in the EYBL his junior and senior years, and he could be a totally different player with a larger share of the offense and more of a role as a distributor and handler. And as much as I dislike what R.J. Barrett does, it’s reasonable to think that he actually hurt Reddish, and that maybe Reddish is the one who will benefit from better spacing in the NBA. And in the end, maybe Reddish is the better prospect, too.

Best team fits

I like Reddish on a smart team that doesn’t have to give him a big role early on and helps him develop first as a rotation guy. I don’t think he’ll fall this far, but Reddish would be a terrifying pick at 14 to Boston. I like his fit a lot in Atlanta too, at 8 or 10, and Miami has done well developing unique strengths. Those are definitely my favorite fits. But most of the teams in the back half of the lottery work, teams like Washington, Minnesota, and Charlotte. And though I wouldn’t take him there, I wouldn’t entirely fault a team like Cleveland, Phoenix, or Chicago taking a swing on Reddish in the top-7.

TIER III — THE NASTY DEFENDERS

4. Matisse Thybulle, Washington

Profile

Matisse Thybulle is an absolute wrecking ball of a defender. Playing in Washington’s 2–3 zone under a Jim Boeheim disciple, Thybulle pretty much broke defensive metrics. He averaged 3.5 steals and 2.3 blocks a game roaming free in the zone and posted an absurd 88 defensive rating and a Defensive Box Plus-Minus over 10. If you’re not familiar with how to value those numbers, if you put them into an advanced metrics calculator to come up with his overall defensive value, it just reads: ERROR does not compute.

Scouting analysis

Thybulle stands 6'6" with a 7'1" wingspan he uses to wreck offenses. He has unbelievable, superhuman instincts on defense. He’s always in the right place and has uncanny hand location, always disrupting and getting in the way. Thybulle is a good athlete with incredible anticipation. He honestly might be the best college wing defender I’ve ever seen. He’s just everywhere.

Thybulle has the size and quickness to guard one to four, though there are questions about his switch from the 2–3 zone to a man concept in the NBA, and he’s more valuable in space or off-ball than on it. Thybulle had only five games all season with fewer than 4 stocks… but eight games with at least 8! Eight steals and blocks!! Do you have any idea how much defensive creation that is? It’s unfathomable. Thybulle just picks guys clean. His positioning is pristine, his closing and recovery abilities elite. He makes so many high-IQ winning team plays and rotations, far more than show up in the box score.

Offensively, Thybulle is not great. There are real questions about whether he’ll do enough on that end to stay on the court. You’re thinking 3+D, but Thybulle made only 30% of his threes this year. But he shot 36% for his career and made 78% of his free throws, up to 85% this season. He also shows nice touch around the rim, hitting 71% of his shots, inflated by a lot of easy transition points after stocks. Thybulle is fine dribbling and has some quick burst, though he makes better decisions when he’s just moving the ball along. He’s a solid passer, but again, better when he’s not on the move. Thybulle is a senior so he’s probably not going to develop much offense, but it looks like there are enough tools there to keep his defense on the court.

NBA expectations

A lot of evaluators ding Thybulle for being old and for lacking “upside.” I think that’s a real misunderstanding of upside. Thybulle has upside on his defense alone. He looks like he could be a +4 to +5 DBPM guy as an NBA defender. That would put him in the range of elite defenders like Bo Outlaw, Andrei Kirilenko, or Draymond Green and that alone makes him a 3-to-4 VORP player and borderline All Star if he’s a 0 on offense. If he brings negative offensive value because he really can’t do anything, that’s still a lot of margin for error to provide positive value. And if he’s even neutral or slightly positive on offense and that good on D, he’s a potential star.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton studied 18 Syracuse players in his database and found that only four beat his projection, versus 45% on average. The 2–3 zone inflates steal numbers. But block numbers are unaffected, and Thybulle had 19% more steals than any other player in the nation, so there’s a big margin for error. Maybe Thybulle’s defense will be muted some outside the zone — or maybe his off-ball ability will be all the more valuable with NBA spacing. The Stepien’s Ben Rubin thinks Thybulle’s defensive value will hold, and I agree. You don’t hope Matisse Thybulle fits into your defensive system; you build your system around magnifying his strengths. Thybulle is better offensively than guys like Andre Roberson or Thabo Sefolosha, and he looks much better on defense. He’s going to play in the NBA.

Best team fits

A player with this sort of defensive upside fits quite a few teams. Thybulle could cover a lot of sins for Atlanta or Portland. I’d trust teams like Miami, Indiana, or San Antonio to maximize his abilities. And heaven help us if he falls to Golden State and gets to play with Iggy and Draymond.

5. Chuma Okeke, Auburn

Profile

You may recall watching the best and worst moments of Chuma Okeke’s basketball career. They happened in the same game in March. In the biggest game of his career, Okeke had the first half of his life against North Carolina en route to a shocking, dominant upset over the 1-seed, flashing lottery skills on the brink of a Final Four run. And then, just like that, his ACL snapped and it was all over.

Scouting analysis

Okeke is a building block player. He’s not a star and probably not a guy that’s ever going to move the needle in a huge way, but he feels like a player that will slot into a rotation and do a grown man job. Okeke is a far different defender than Thybulle, the sort of defender you’ll barely even notice much of the time until you start looking for it. And when you do, you’ll notice that Okeke is literally everywhere on defense. He has an uncanny ability to always be in the right spot on defense and has good recovery ability when not. Okeke has prototypical wing size and should be able to switch and stay with most players in the NBA, so he’s a huge value add in team defense. Individually, he picks up 3 stocks a game, not exactly Thybulle but very good nonetheless. He has quick hands and makes good, quick decisions on D.

Offensively, Okeke will be a fine 4th or 5th option. He can knock down the three at 39%, and he can put the ball on the floor and attack or pull up. His shot form is good and the result is crisp. Okeke has really strong instincts and spacial awareness that comes out at both ends of the court. He’s never stationary on either end, constantly moving and shifting the calculus of the game on the court. He really stood out early in the year rotating against Ja Morant and Murray State, and he’s a good role player in that he moves the ball along quickly and makes smart decisions. He’s just an average athlete but a good analytical player that takes mostly threes and shots at the rim.

NBA expectations

Chuma Okeke is a ball of clay 3+D wing prospect. He feels like a guy you want on your side, and with his lack of weaknesses, he looks like a playoff rotation guy and a potential 16 gamer. He also brings long-term value in the fact that he’s not going to be a big scorer or stats guy, so he should remain undervalued and on a cheaper contract despite being a winning contributor. Add to that the fact that he’ll go later in the draft with his ACL tear — not a real concern since rookies rarely contribute much in year one and knee injuries are routine now — and Okeke could be one of the better plays in the entire draft.

Best team fits

I love Okeke’s defensive instincts and 3+D spacing on a team with high-usage guys that need help on defense and someone to knock down open jumpers. Minnesota and Denver are great fits, as are Phoenix, Philly, and Atlanta. Houston fits too, though they can’t afford to wait as easily. Okeke is a guy that can easily fit most rotations, so if his injury causes him to slip into the second round, he should be a trade target for almost any team. Okeke doesn’t feel like a guy teams can’t afford to miss out on, but they’ll be glad they didn’t.

TIER IV — THE DEVELOPMENTAL PROJECTS

6. Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa State

Profile

What exactly is Talen Horton-Tucker? It’s a fair question. THT is 6'4" with a ginormous 7'1" wingspan and weighs 235 pounds. He could genuinely end up at any of the five positions in the NBA depending on how he’ll develop, and he should develop a lot since he’s one of the youngest players in the draft and won’t turn 19 until almost December. THT is thikk and has a really strong understanding of the game for someone his age, but he’s really raw and comes in such a unique package that he’s really hard to get a handle on.

Scouting analysis

Horton-Tucker’s long arms and strong, stout base give him a lot of defensive potential. A lot of scouts seem torn on his instincts, but I really feel like THT gets it, and he really bothers opponents with his long arms and size and typically has good positioning. He’s really smart recovering on D and great in transition defense. But he also has really poor hips and looks like he plays on his heels instead of his toes. He doesn’t rotate well laterally and struggles to stay with quicker guys on the perimeter when he can’t contain with his reach, so those things could really limit his defensive potential.

Offensively, there’s a lot of raw skill THT is still developing. He has a really long stride and loves to get downhill attacking the rim, and he’s a really creative finisher at the basket. He does a great job keeping his eyes up on drives and has really special ability there. His offensive activity can bet stagnant at times, just standing in the corner, but he does a lot more with the ball in his hands. That’s not always good. THT can get to his step-back jumper but his shot is really bad right now and he settled for way too many bad jumpers as the year went along, a telltale sign of a young player. His offensive feel comes and goes. Horton-Tucker has a really advanced dribble for a guy his size. He can go behind his back or Euro step, create his own space, and put some English on his finish at the rim. He’s a very creative player and typically has pretty quick instinctive reactions. There’s some passing equity too, and he’s really unstoppable with a head of steam in transition.

NBA expectations

I don’t really know what Talen Horton-Tucker is, but I’m so intrigued by the overall package. He has unnatural coordination and instincts for somebody his size, similar to Zion in that way, and he’s so young that there’s so much room for him to develop. It’s going to take awhile, long enough that he’s probably a second contract guy. But what this guy did as a new 18-year-old all year, the fourth youngest player in D1, is just too impressive to forget about.

THT is the definition of positionless in a league moving evermore in that direction. He grew up playing center but then played point guard as his size changed, and that explains the versatility of skill set. There were times this year where he was playing point center at the base of a 2–3 zone defense, running the offense at the other end. What is he in the NBA? The two guys that come to mind are Marcus Smart and Draymond Green. They don’t fit any mold but just get it and use weirdly shaped bodies in positive ways. I just don’t know how to quit Talen Horton-Tucker.

Best team fits

This is impossible to figure out because THT won’t contribute to this iteration of a team, and that’s the problem with the investment, of course. It’s gotta be a team with nothing to lose an no need for an immediate payoff, so that knocks out the top contenders. Orlando loves long, raw players that break the mold. Detroit has long needed a player like this. The Spurs have two first-round picks and could develop him. In the end, the lack of a clear answer here is what could drop Horton-Tucker out of the first. I’m still bummed we don’t get to watch him and Tyrese Haliburton play together again next season.

7. Nassir Little, North Carolina

Profile

Few 2019 prospects are more polarizing than Nassir Little. Little was the #3 RSCI high school recruit a year ago and entered the season as a consensus top-5 pick with a shot at going #1. He has a big wide frame at 6'6" with a 7'1" wingspan and a load of muscle, and he’s a superb athlete with a ton of defensive potential. There’s just one problem: it’s not totally clear Nassir Little knows how to play basketball.

Scouting analysis

I could honestly write 5 or 10,000 words about Nassir Little and still not know anymore about him at the end of the profile, so we’ll try to stick to the big picture here. Little’s name is a misnomer. He’s a big strong dude, and at age 19, he’s only going to continue to grow into his frame. He is explosive athletically with world-class strength and leap, and he plays with a high motor and is widely respected for having an incredible work ethic.

The problem is it that a lot of the time, it feels like Nassir Little is a super-athlete someone found and put a UNC uniform on and shoved onto the court. He looked absolutely lost much of the time, and that didn’t really change as the season went along. Little was slow reacting on everything. His defensive instincts are MIA and that means he’s always late rotating or reacting and that his athletic and size advantage are often totally muted. I watched at least 5 or 10 games this year where I completely forgot Little was even playing. He’s not assertive and often totally uninvolved at both ends.

When Little does stand out, it’s often in a scramble when the coaching and system go out the window and Little just gets to play instinctively. It’s like he’s finally free and not overthinking everything. He was also much better against poor opponents where his athleticism could just take over. Take the shackles off and Little pops, but in the regular flow of the game, everything processes so slowly. He had no feel for the Carolina offense and on defense was often the reason for an open shot or missed rebound when he wasn’t in the right spot. Roy Williams clearly never trusted Little and played him only 18 minutes a game, and that lack of playing time obviously didn’t help Little either.

Little never looked particularly comfortable on the ball. His dribble comes and goes but he doesn’t have much wiggle, and his athleticism doesn’t always feel functional within the regular game flow. I saw him get blocked three times in four possessions at the rim in one game, which feels inexcusable for an athlete like this. Little plays up a few inches according to Jackson Hoy, but something seems off with his body, like he put on too much muscle heading to college and lost some quickness, like David Boston awhile back in the NFL. Little is supposed to be a prototypical wing but feels more like a four or small-ball five with his current build, and I don’t think he has the quickness to guard on the perimeter. Scouts that watched Little in high school swear he can shoot, but the shooting numbers were pretty rough at UNC on a limited sample. His form is better than the result, and the free-throw percentage is good.

Little is a projection right now. From everything I saw at UNC, Little honestly wouldn’t even be on my draft board, and I thought he might have to return for a year. But his high school pedigree is so strong that it looks like he may still end up a lottery pick on draft night. He has a lot to learn.

NBA expectations

The best thing I saw from Little all season was his Combine interview. I hear the IQ and understanding in his voice, and he knows his game well and sounds like he gets it. You can hear the passion and work ethic in his words, and he admitted that it took him the whole year to learn the game. I see why everyone loves Little in person. Now I just need to see him play basketball.

Nassir Little is a developmental project. His body reminds me of Justise Winslow, and Winslow took four years to become even sort of useful in the NBA, and he was far better in college. I compare Little to Okeke and I don’t ever see Little catching up to Okeke’s instincts. I compare him to Thybulle and don’t see him ever getting even close to Thybulle’s defensive impact, even though he’s three years younger. So he’ll have to be a lot better on offense to be better than those guys, and maybe he will be someday, but he just isn’t right now and I can’t take him in the lottery.

Best team fits

Little desperately needs a smart, patient front office with a great developmental coaching staff. Miami is the slam dunk fit. They have made use of similar players and develop so well. I can also see Atlanta, Boston, Indiana, or San Antonio fitting well. They value character and work ethic and could help Little turn into the prospect I’m unable to see right now.

TIER V — THE PERFECT ROLE PLAYERS

8. Dylan Windler, Belmont

Profile

Dylan Windler is one of my favorite picks in the draft, a likely second rounder that’s smart and rounded. Windler put up 21 points and 11 rebounds a game for Belmont with 54/43/85 shooting splits. He led the conference in two- and three-point percentage and also led it in rebounding as a wing man, a hyper-productive small-conference player that can do a bit of everything.

Scouting analysis

Windler will be 23 when the season begins, but he’s already done plenty of developing. He has enough size to play the two or even three positions if he adds some muscle to his frame. Windler had a monster tournament game against Maryland but was productive all season long. He does whatever his team needs and controls the game whether he’s scoring or not. Windler has an elite basketball IQ and feel for the game. He makes quick, good decisions and plays really well off the ball, a deadly cutter and smart passer. Windler is a terrific shooter and a great finisher. He made 41% of his 534 threes at Belmont and showed steady progression as a shooter at the line in his four years of college. He can also dribble some, with a nice first step and the ability to create space and get his shot off.

Many project Windler as a 3+D wing, and I’m not sure he’s going to be a great on-ball defender with his light frame, but he’ll be good in team D. He’s a surprising athlete (read: for a white guy) with quick feet and good lateral movement, and he has some real pop vertically and had elite shuttle and lane agility times. Add that to his instincts and Windler is a terrific team defender with great timing and recovery, and he always seems to be in the right place. And that rebounding production is out of this world for a wing, even a wing playing at a small school in the OVC.

NBA expectations

Windler feels like a potential 16-game player, an ideal role player that takes nothing off the table and adds shooting ability. He looks like a guy that could slot into a lot of playoff rotations and add depth and instincts, someone who will elevate the play of his team. I’d take Dylan Windler over Cam Johnson in a heartbeat. The biggest question on Windler is how much of his game will translate from Belmont to the NBA, but Belmont is the same conference as Murray State, and if Ja Morant is the #2 pick for what he did at Murray, then there’s just no way Windler isn’t a first round pick too.

Best team fits

What NBA team doesn’t want a smart, versatile wing that plays defense, rebounds, hits threes, and makes good rotations? I really think Windler could sneak into the end of the first round, which makes him a possible pick to a team like Golden State, Philly, or Milwaukee. You’ll be hearing his name plenty next May if so.

9. DaQuan Jeffries, Tulsa

Profile

I’m a bit late to DaQuan Jeffries, but it seems like everyone else was too. He was a literal high riser at the Combine, flashing his elite athleticism and grabbing attention after a mostly forgotten season at mediocre Tulsa. He’s an analytics darling who really gets the game and plays a modern style, and he looks like a just-add-water instant rotation wing for just about any NBA team.

Scouting analysis

Jeffries is a dynamite athlete with an explosive leap and plenty of strength and quickness. He has great defensive awareness and is especially good in help defense, averaging 2 steals and 1 block per game. He’s a bit slower laterally and could struggle switching onto guards, so he’s probably going to play the three or four in the NBA, but he has terrific instincts and that should help him hang. Jeffries is built like a linebacker but plays like a quarterback, constantly talking and organizing the defense. You can tell he gets it.

Those instincts are there on offense too. Jeffries has a great feel for the game and plays a smart modern game. All but 40 of his shots came at the rim or from behind the arc this year, and he hit 70% at the rim and made 37% of his 95 NBA threes, per the Stepien. Jeffries is a great decision maker and a smart passer, and he could have some value as the PNR roll man going downhill on a 4-on-3 a la Draymond Green.

NBA expectations

Jeffries projects as a complimentary wing, a smart player that slots into a rotation and does his job. Ben Pfeiffer calls him “the anti-Jaylen Brown, a shooting, scoring 3-D wing who plays without awareness or decision making.” Would you rather have someone wired to score or a guy with a permanent defensive setting on “Destroy”? His motor and team defense combined with his ability to hit the open jumper and make smart decisions make him a viable 16-game player candidate in a playoff rotation.

Best team fits

As with Windler, it’s starting to look like Jeffries could sneak into the first round, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him getting playoff minutes if he does. The Houston Rockets don’t have a pick right now, but Jeffries is an ideal Rocket with his skills and mindset. He would also be a value add for any of the contending playoff teams looking to add a ready-made wing contributor.

TIER VI — THE HOME RUN SWINGS

10. Darius Bazley, New Balance

Profile

Bazley was supposed to be a Syracuse player but opted instead for a $1 million internship with New Balance, so we don’t have a ton to go off here. In high school, Bazley overwhelmed with his size and athleticism. My first instinct watching highlights was a young Kevin Garnett, which obviously caught my attention. But he’s raw and untested and a long ways away.

Scouting analysis

Bazley just turned 19. He’s long and lean, standing 6'9" with an 8'11" reach, weighing in at 209 pounds. He needs to hit the weight room but he’s quick with a big leap and has a frame that should fill out similarly to Pascal Siakam or Luol Deng. Bazley is something of a point forward, so he comes with guard skills. He’s really comfortable dribbling and wants the ball in his hands, and he can score or create out of the high post and finish with both hands. Bazley has a ton of defensive potential. His body, athleticism, and motor combination make him a guy that could potentially guard one to five in time.

NBA expectations

It’s definitely going to take time. Bazley is totally untested and looks like he lacks finesse or feel for the game, and his defensive awareness is not great. So far Bazley has gotten by on body and athleticism, and he’s going to be a developmental project at the next level, a multiple-year G-league guy. The shot also needs a lot of work. Bazley has a nice touch around the rim so there’s hope there, but again, it will take time. Bazley definitely isn’t KG. He might well end up more like Skal Labissiere or Brice Johnson. But Skal was the #2 high school recruit and worth a shot, and Bazley is too.

Best team fits

The right team needs to believe in Bazley’s future enough to invest a late first-round pick on him because they need his rights for four years so they have long enough to develop him and get some payoff. I could see Portland taking him at 25, similar to how they invested in Anfernee Simons last year, or Brooklyn could make sense.

11. KZ Okpala, Stanford

Profile

KZ Okpala feels like Kevin Knox lite. Whether that leaves you excited or dismayed tells you everything you need to know about Okpala. He’s like 20% less than Knox on athleticism, size, shot, everything, with the ideal frame for a modern stretch four but few on-court results to prove he can be it. Like Knox, Okpala was a bit pigeonholed in his offense, playing mostly on the wing where his size wasn’t much of an advantage. Everything about him is a projection.

Scouting analysis

Okpala is a young 20 and measures in at 6'8" with an 8'11" reach, but he’s pretty thin and doesn’t look like he can add a ton of strength, and he gets banged into oblivion in the post and on the boards. Still, he’s quick laterally and moves his feet well, and his size gives him a lot of defensive potential. Potential is really the key word with Okpala. He improved a lot as a shooter this season but still has a slow release that needs work. He’s a super slow decision maker that doesn’t seem to have any real instincts on the court and often feels like he floats in and out of games. His dribble is a bit loose, and he doesn’t play his size. There are flashes — a Euro step here, a spin move there, some nice looks in the high post — but it’s mostly just a wait and see.

NBA expectations

Kevin Knox just had one of the worst NBA rookie seasons of all time, so if Okpala is a worse version, expect this to take some time. Okpala started late as a prospect and is still young and made a real leap this year in terms of shooting percentages and intangibles, but everything is still super inconsistent and he disappears for entire games at times. If he ever figures things out, he could be a more athletic Tayshaun Prince or Trevor Ariza. You can decide if that’s worth the wait.

Best team fits

Okpala started out near my lottery but fell further and further as the season progressed, and now he’s out of my first round entirely. I suspect some NBA still team takes him there. It could be a team like Portland or San Antonio with a strong history developing guys, or maybe someone like Cleveland or Brooklyn will take a shot on his untapped upside.

TIER VII — THE SECOND ROUND TARGETS

12. Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan

If Iggy were just a few inches longer in every direction, he’d probably be in my top 20. He looks like he could be an exceptional glue guy role player type, but his skill set is so perfect at the four and his body and lack of athleticism leave him as more of a two. Iggy is really comfortable with the ball on his hands and he has outstanding feel for the game, so he makes quick decisions and plays well within the flow of the game. He can really shoot too, hitting 39% of his 143 threes as a freshman, including 44% on 77 NBA threes, and he knows how to attack the mismatch with his deceptive speed and first step. Brazdeikis is just not a great athlete, so he’s not going to be able to switch and stay on quicker players, and he’ll have a size disadvantage against his position, so that’s where I’m stuck with him. But this guy is a baller. He always showed up in the big moments, and he’s already playing the exact role I want from him. I’m just not sure he’s big enough to do it in the NBA. Think of something like a thicker Matt Barnes. The league is getting smaller, and Iggy is worth a shot.

13. Yovel Zoosman, Israel

Yovel Zoosman might actually be my second favorite international prospect in the class, especially considering his cheap price as a second-round flier. Zoosman has a really great feel for the game and a high basketball IQ, and you see it on both ends. He has great awareness on defense and is a strong team defender, and on offense he moves well as is a really smart passer with quick decisions and high-level ball movement. Zoosman isn’t a great athlete and his handle and jumper are improving but need work. He projects as a smart 3+D glue guy and reminds me of a bigger Bogdan Bogdanovic, one of my favorite Euro players. I like Zoosman more than Iggy, but Iggy is a year younger, can shoot, and is a little more battle-tested. Both look like winning players.

14. Eric Paschall, Villanova

I keep seeing Paschall’s name in the first round, and I think he’s getting by on reputation. Paschall is a big, thick dude with an unbelievable combination of strength and leaping ability, so he makes some sick highlights. Paschall plays like a shooting guard, but his big wingspan and 255-pound frame move him up into the combo forward range at 6'7". We’ve learned by now that Villanova prospects are knockdown shooters with a great feel for the game, but I’m not sure Paschall is either of those things. His shooting numbers plummeted in a bigger role this year and he’s never really hit the three comfortably, at 33% over four seasons. Paschall doesn’t have much finesse to his game and I don’t like his hip rotation or ability to move laterally, so that takes away his upside as a switch or perimeter defender. He can guard on the ball with his strength and reach, and his physicality helps him finish through guys, but I’m not sure there will be enough there when he doesn’t have the matchup edge.

TIER VIII — THE UNDRAFTED DART THROWS

I think these three may well end up in the second round, and I don’t hate them near the end just because the league needs wings, but they don’t particularly excite me. I’d bring any of them as a free agent but that’s about it.

Louis King, Oregon

I think of Kin as something of a replacement-level wing in the draft. He’s just kind of a guy. He has nice size and is relatively young and decently productive. He had a nice season for the Ducks but I’m not a real believer in his shooting and he seems like a pretty poor athlete for the NBA. He’s kind of just a C+ at everything, which provides a baseline and makes him a professional somewhere. I’m just not sure it will be in the NBA.

Admiral Schofield, Tennessee

Admiral Schofield has the best non-Zion name in the draft, and he’s a fiery competitor and a great college player. I’m not sure he’s a pro. Schofield is a power forward in a shooting guard’s body, like a poor man’s Thomas Robinson that can hit threes. He’s big and physical but doesn’t have the most athletic pop, so he feels like Eric Paschall without the athletic edge, and I’m not high on Paschall either. Schofield is supposed to be a solid defender, but I thought he got hunted at times and guys like P.J. Washington scored over and through him like he wasn’t even there. Schofield’s shooting took a leap this year at every level. If he keeps that up, he’ll have a chance. But his age, body, and defensive red flags are too much, and much like Thomas Robinson, I just don’t see his physical game translating too well to the NBA.

Jaylen Hoard, Wake Forest

I was really surprised to see Hoard stay in the draft. He certainly looks like an NBA body but hasn’t put his game together yet. He is a pretty poor athlete and has a really rough shot, and he’s going to need to add some serious muscle. He looks like an NBA player, right up until he steps on the court. He’s a project. ■

Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow for plenty more NBA Draft content to come. If you’ve missed anything, here are my profiles of the four best players in the 2019 draft…

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