Opinion: The United Kingdom and United States Both Revealed Their Intentions For the Future of World Order This Week

This week I published two digital content pieces about geopolitical trends in the publication Areas & Producers.

Monday — Welcoming the United Kingdom Into the Largest Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc, CPTPP.

• This Indo-Pacific trade partnership has not been a story of roses and rainbows. Geopolitics have had a massive impact on those countries, which is one of the benefits of them coming together for economic cooperation.
• China is a big part of the story. Take note how the CPTPP member list ends with “Japan” but doesen’t include the United States or People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Wednesday — United States Climate Envoy John Kerry Visits Heatwave-Battered China For Climate Talks in Beijing.

• This story is not just about US domestic politics, however, it’s more about looking ahead at the US-China relationship, as John Kerry’s latest trip to Beijing this week signifies what could be one of the only tailwinds facing ruptured ties between the two world’s largest economies.
• Kerry went to Beijing on 16 July 2023 as the special climate envoy during a heatwave in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This trip has been seen as an indication of the United States’ efforts to restart talks with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on the future of climate change.

They both were meant to illustrate two of the biggest events in international affairs this week, which is basically one of the main purposes of the publication Areas & Producers for posting content every week.

So what I want do in this edition of TWB newsletter is share my opinion on why these two geopolitical trends share a common theme — other than the fact that they both have implications on China in the global economy — for boosting the presence of international relations (IR) on maritime areas.

To know more events about international affairs every week, follow the publication Areas & Producers and you won’t be disappointed!

Welcoming the United Kingdom Into the Largest Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc, CPTPP

The United Kingdom (UK) just signed a treaty with Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) members to formally join the Indo-Pacific trade bloc at a signing ceremony in New Zealand on 16 July 2023.

According to a report about the deal by CNBC, UK business and trade secretary, Kemi Badenoch, said that one of the reasons for signing this treaty is because it will give the country “huge opportunities and unparalleled access to a market of over 500 million people.” CNBC

Indeed this is true. The CPTPP trade bloc consists of Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Japan.

This Indo-Pacific trade partnership has not been a story of roses and rainbows. Geopolitics have had a massive impact on those countries, which is one of the benefits of them coming together for economic cooperation.

China is a big part of the story. Take note how the CPTPP member list ends with “Japan” but doesen’t include the United States or People’s Republic of China (PRC).

But another geopolitical trend relevant to the Indo-Pacific is deep-sea mining. For example, It has been reported by Oilprice.com that proposals to open up exploration opportunities for deep-sea mining are already trying to lift off in Norway.

This is a big development, as many of the world’s critical metals are to be found in the deep-sea maritime areas.

Please go back and read that last sentence carefully — “many of the world’s critical metals are to be found in the deep-sea maritime areas”.

This means one thing only: maritime borders and disputes are likely to reignite tensions between government, in addition to the evironmental, industries and wildlife impact that is the biggest focus from current reporting on this trend.

United States Climate Envoy John Kerry Visits Heatwave-Battered China For Climate Talks in Beijing

John Kerry won the former Democratic Party presidential-nomination for the 2004 United States election against Republican-winner George W. Bush. He was also the former United States Secretary of State under United States President Barrack Obama from 2013–2017. Now, he’s been given a role under the Biden Administration as a special climate envoy.

As anyone following United States domestic politics would concur, the role has been doomed to fail from the beginning. Even the title “special” along with the name “climate envoy” smacks with climate change notions that have devolved since the Trump Administration pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement.

This story is not just about US domestic politics, however.

It’s more about looking ahead at the US-China relationship, as John Kerry’s latest trip to Beijing this week signifies what could be one of the only tailwinds facing ruptured ties between the two world’s largest economies.

Kerry went to Beijing on 16 July 2023 as the special climate envoy during a heatwave in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This trip has been seen as an indication of the United States’ efforts to restart talks with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on the future of climate change.

In report by CNN World, Greenpeace China senior global policy adviser Li Shuo told reporters: “If anything, this is the situation that should most bring China and the US back on the same page.”

This event reveals a very strange mix of intense climate change notions and geopolitical trends, which is why I’m not hopeful about the outcomes at present. But with a volatile world beset by countless effects from the global Covid-19 pandemic, I don’t think the two sides have anything to lose right now.

The problem is about the future.

Can the US special climate envoy agree to a future negotiation with CCP counterparts in Beijing?

Let’s take a step back from geo-politics now, and focus on the core theme of the publication Areas & Producers: Concept Development.

Concept Development is a way to understand an idea, or a set of ideas, which causes people to develop a new understanding on a particular topic, subject or trend. The purpose of this “way to understand” is to take that idea, or set of ideas, which has/have led to a new understanding, and refine that understanding into a new form of values about the world or the topic, subject or trend in question, that can be consequently articulated into a strategy or strategic framework.

Generally speaking, a strategy could apply to present issues while a strategic framework would apply to future issues or considerations.

For instance, the Concept Developer might ask these questions about the present and future:

A strategy for whom? A strategic framework for which values?

To further explain this, let’s talk about process, logic and actions very briefly. A process implies that A would cause B. But what if A does not cause B? This is the purpose of Concept Development and why it matters to a strategy, because the effects are likely to cause values to change when A does not cause B.

In other words, the outcomes of Concept Development do not have to be logical, but actionable, so that any given strategy can be carried out under the unforseen changing circumstances

Now that Concept Development has been broken down into its parts, let’s take another important component of this publication into consideration: Global Commodities.

A recent hot-button topic in geo-politics is about the present and future demand for critical metals. These critical metals, such as copper, nickel, cobalt, maganese, lithium and others are a crucial part of the global energy transition.

For example, copper and nickel, along with potash fertilizers, form part of the future-facing commodities push from the global mining sector to increase output for global mega-trends such as the energy transition.

According to British Petroleum (BP) CEO Bernard Looney, capital spending on hydrogen development forms part of the company’s strategy to invest only in “low carbon energy” projects while taking the once-oil producing major and transforming it into an “integrated energy company.”

Those concepts are particularly prevalent in the Asia-Pacific and Oceania areas, which is now collectively referred to as the Indo-Pacific (along with the India sub-continent and its surrounding maritime neibours and areas). In other words, from both a geographical and industrial point of view, the future of the world is being transformed to meet the needs of both corporations and humanity; hence the importance of Environment, Social, Governance (ESG) frameworks.

The potential success of outcomes in the Energy Transition and ESG frameworks hold the key to humanity’s race to cut down on carbon emissions through the Net Zero 2050 Strategy, which has been called for by climate scientists, industrial advocates and environmental activists from all around the world.

To illustrate this further, I must take this narrative deeper into the world of global mining projects, so how about Glencore’s investment in a copper-nickel mine located in Minnesota of the United States…

Glencore is a beast in the business of global commodities — and that’s why I have covered them extensively in the publication Areas & Producers.

The Swiss-based trader and producer is historically known for its massive presence in the emerging markets space. But now they are pushing hard into North America, as this latest full ownership bid of PolyMet Mining illustrates to a tee.

The ownership bid for this St. Paul-based mining company is about a copper-nickel mine in Northern Minnesota located near to Babbit. According to media reports, Glencore already owns 82% of the company and has made an offer of $71 million to take a 100% ownership of the company. AP News

This push is also related to Glencore’s interest in Teck Resources, a reputable Canadian coal mining company, of which PolyMet controls a 50% share as a joint-venture (JV) partner. MarketWatch

What I would like to point attention to is the processing plant associated with this copper-nickel mine in Hoyt Lakes, Minnesota.

This is how natural resources become commodities; and subsequently global commodities. When natural resources are dug out of the ground, regardless of the mining method, they are destined to be processed into a commodity which can be sold on a global commodities market or trade exchange. When they’re sold like this, they are called global commodities.

In my opinion, by using Concept Development, it’s a lot easier to understand the relevance of geopolitical trends when viewed from the perspective of global commodities. Here’s more from the publication Areas & Producers this week if you’re interested:

• Areas: Welcoming the United Kingdom Into the Largest Indo-Pacific Trade Bloc, CPTPP, Exemplifies How To Use Concept Development To Understand International Affairs
• Producers: Mali Is Taking A Larger Chunk of the Gold Miners Pie With Government’s New Mining Law
• Areas: United States Climate Envoy John Kerry Visits Heatwave-Battered China For Climate Talks in Beijing
• Producers: Glencore Offers Full Ownership Bid for Copper-Nickel Mining Project in Minnesota of USA