2019 NBA SEASON PREVIEW

One Most Improved Player Candidate from Every NBA Team

Improvement is unpredictable. What young NBA players are ready to take a big step forward in the 2019–20 season?

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER IS ONE OF THE MOST FASCINATING NBA AWARDS EACH SEASON. It’s almost always a surprise. Sometimes the award goes to a breakout player on a title contender, like Pascal Siakam. Other times it’s a step on the way to superstardom, like Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2017. Occasionally it’s a player like Victor Oladipo turning things around on a new team.

MVP and Rookie of the Year are fun, but we typically know the names that will lead those races each season. Most Improved Player (MIP) is fun in part because it’s so unpredictable. Improvement isn’t linear, and it doesn’t always happen all at once, or sometimes at all.

Names like Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma, Jamal Murray, and Brandon Ingram lead everyone’s 2019–20 Most Improved Player list now, but they may not even be top-five candidates. Why not pick an MIP candidate from every team and see who’s ready for a breakout campaign?

But before we can look forward, it’s important to look back.

WHO WINS MOST IMPROVED PLAYER?

So what sort of player usually wins Most Improved Player?

Here are the MIP winners this decade, starting with the most recent: Pascal Siakam, Victor Oladipo, Giannis Antetokounmpo, C.J. McCollum, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Paul George, Ryan Anderson, and Kevin Love.

A few trends worth noticing:

• They’re young. All but Dragic won MIP between age 22 and 25. Dragic was 27, and the average age was just under 24.
• This happens early in a player’s career. Seven of the nine won it Year 3 or Year 4. Only Oladipo (5) and Dragic (6) won on their second contract.
• Seven of the nine made the playoffs. Winning helps — but not too much winning. Siakam was an anomaly. Usually these guys are breaking out before their team catches up.
• None of them were All-Stars before winning MIP, but all of them except Anderson became Top 25 / borderline All-Stars once they made their leap. MIP is not for incremental leaps or for nobodies becoming quality role players. It’s for leaps into the edge of stardom.
• The average stat line the year before winning: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists. Compare that to the MIP year: 20 points, 7 boards, 4 dimes. It should be no surprise that this is about a scoring leap as much as anything. The leap from 12.4 to 19.7ppg is almost a 60% scoring increase.

So, ideally, we’re looking for a Year 3 or 4 player age 22-to-25 that’s not an All-Star yet but could get there by season’s end, likely by helping his team to the playoffs with a scoring boost from low double-digits to around 20ppg.

We don’t necessarily have to check all of those boxes, but that’s a nice rubric to start from.

Let’s run through 30 MIP candidates for the 2019–20 season, one from every NBA team, starting with the least likely winners first…

TIER IX — NO GOOD CANDIDATES

30. Danuel House, Houston 29. Alec Burks, Golden State

This is what happens when you build a stars and scrubs roster. The other options include names like Austin Rivers, Alfonzo McKinnie, and Kevon Looney. None of them will get the playing time or the shots to matter, and if they do, these teams are both doomed anyway.

TIER VIII — ALREADY A STAR

28. Donovan Mitchell, Utah 27. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 26. Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas

These guys already made their leap. Porzingis and Simmons have already been All-Stars, and no MIP has ever been an All-Star first. Spida scored 24ppg last year. Porzingis was at almost 23 his last time on the court for the Knicks. Simmons was at 17/9/8.

These guys are already stars. There’s not room for them to “improve” enough statistically to win an award like this. The truth is, if the numbers do improve by that much, they’ll be MVP candidates instead.

And yeah, Ben Simmons finally hit a three. He hit one, at the end of the quarter, with the entire team and crowd pushing him on. And if he does start making threes, he’s an MVP candidate, not the MIP. And if you’re wondering, Luka Doncic would fall into this category too.

TIER VII — NOT ENOUGH SCORING TO STAND OUT

25. Ivica Zubac, L.A. Clippers 24. Dragan Bender, Milwaukee 23. OG Anunoby, Toronto 22. Jonathan Isaac, Orlando

Remember, MIPs average almost 20 points a game. The public is forever obsessed with scoring, so we might as well accept it.

These four could take a big step forward, and doing so would have a significant impact on the playoffs next summer. They’re just not the player type to win this award.

Call me crazy, but there’s a world where Dragan Bender steps into the Brook Lopez role as a great Milwaukee bargain signing. He can hit threes and protect the rim, and the BroLo role is perfect for him.

Anunoby and Isaac are two of my favorite young guys in the NBA, and I could see either of them “in the running” for the award. But both were under 10ppg last year, and neither is the type to come out and score 18 a game this season. They’re interesting precisely because they don’t need to score 18ppg to be super valuable.

TIER VI — SORRY, YOUR TEAM SUCKS

21. Cedi Osman, Cleveland 20. Dennis Smith Jr., New York

These two are at the right stage of their careers. They both scored in the 13-to-14ppg range, and there’s an obvious path for enough volume to break out to 20ppg this season.

But… would anyone care? Any fan would see a 20ppg scorer on a terrible 20-win team and add any number of asterisks. Most MIP winners make the playoffs, and no one since Kevin Love in Minnesota has won it on an awful team — and he put up 20 points and 15 boards a game. Unless DSJ starts putting up mini-Westbrook numbers, it ain’t happening.

TIER V — TOO MUCH SCORING ALREADY

19. John Collins, Atlanta 18. Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers 17. T.J. Warren, Indiana 16. Lauri Markkanen, Chicago 15. Brandon Ingram, New Orleans 14. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota

We’re getting to a few more popular MIP candidates, but they all have the same problem: they already score too much.

Every player in this tier already scores 18ppg, so a 60% boost in scoring would put them around 30ppg. That’s a bridge too far. For these guys to really improve, the improvement will come in more subtle ways — by adding efficiency, playing more defense, maybe increasing their rebounding or assist numbers. That’s nice and all, but it’s not how MIPs are historically chosen.

John Collins was a rounding error away from a 20/10 season. He could arguably have gone in the already-a-star tier. Kuzma and Warren are score-first-score-only guys already just under 20ppg. Kuzma’s not going to start scoring more on a better team. Warren could lead Indiana in scoring, but he already made his big improvement last year when he added a three-point shot, and the Pacers should be pretty egalitarian in scoring.

Markkanen and Ingram are more traditional candidates. They’re the right age and will have plenty of media attention, and both look ready to step into the spotlight. But the numbers are already pretty good for both. Markkanen was at 19/9 last year but missed too many games. Ingram’s 18/5/3 is primed for a leap to something like 22/6/5… on another team. It’ll be hard to get much hype with Zion around.

I almost talked myself into Andrew Wiggins. He’s a bit too far along in his career in Year 6, but he fits the Oladipo model. What if Wiggins finally puts everything together with a new coach in a more modern, analytical system? His scoring has always been good, and his complimentary numbers ticked up toward the end of the season. What if 18/5/2.5 became something like 25/6/5?

Sure, maybe for the 11 games Wiggins plays against the Cavs (traded him), Raptors (Canada), Lakers (LeBron), and Thunder (who knows??). But let’s see Wiggins show up for the other 70 games. Has a max player ever won MIP? Has a former #1 pick? Wiggins won’t be the first.

TIER IV — SOPHOMORES DON’T USUALLY WIN THIS

13. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix 12. Marvin Bagley, Sacramento 11. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis 10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City

These guys all look certain to improve significantly, but history says MIP just doesn’t go to a sophomore. It hasn’t since Monta Ellis (2007) and Gilbert Arenas (2003) won as Warriors sophomores over a decade ago.

That’s partly because rookies play bigger roles now and don’t have as far to “improve” as sophomores and partly because voters assume sophomores will improve and tend to discount that improvement for an award like this. Growth isn’t linear. Stardom takes time.

Ayton, Bagley, and Jackson were top-four picks and all made 1st Team All-Rookie. Ayton put up 16/10 and played big minutes. He has the upside for more but he was the #1 pick so he’s supposed to. Bagley was #2. He has a little more “improvement” upside since he didn’t play as much, but unless he turns into Amare’ in Year 2, it’s not happening. JJJ has the best chance of the three. Few saw him play last year, but he was really good and should have more opportunity. He’s still awfully young and probably not ready, but if he takes a big step offensively to match his D, he’ll get some buzz.

The most likely sophomore winner is probably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Opportunity is everything. SGA will play and shoot a lot more for OKC than he did on the Clippers. He’s looked great in preseason. But there’s a bit of a catch-22 with SGA. For his production to matter, he probably needs the Thunder to stay in the playoff picture — but in order to do that, they’ll need big years from Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari, muting SGA’s production.

Not yet on these guys.

TIER III — QUALITY CANDIDATES

9. Luke Kennard, Detroit

Kennard is Year 3, 23 years old, on a likely playoff team, and could see a big scoring boost from his 9.7ppg a year ago, and he should get more minutes and shots this year. It probably won’t be enough.

8. Zach Collins, Portland

The Blazers will start three new players this year, and Collins will have a big opportunity to step forward. He averaged 14/9 per 36 minutes last year so the production has been solid and should improve some. But there’s probably not enough scoring punch, especially with Dame and C.J. around.

7. Jamal Murray, Denver

Murray looks like a good MIP candidate but he seems juuuust a little too good already. He was already a borderline All-Star a year ago and already scored over 18ppg. It does feel like we’re still waiting for another step forward, but that step might come in big moments in April and May, more than in numbers and MIP trophies.

6. Thomas Bryant, Washington

Thomas Bryant is a really quality NBA player. Left for dead by the Lakers renowned development program, Bryant blossomed for the Wizards. He started hitting threes and averaged 10/6, though those numbers leapt to 17/10 over the final ten games of the season. He should see plenty of volume and scoring opportunity this year, especially if Bradley Beal gets traded at some point. That could even leave Bryant as a potential leading scorer, but that team won’t win enough for his numbers to matter.

5. Jayson Tatum, Boston

Tatum is the betting favorite. It’s Year 3, and you’ve read all the offseason workout stories and saw the flashes with Team USA. Tatum should have a bigger, clearer role, and a leap from him would certainly push him into the All-Star conversation. So why not? At 16/6, his numbers are a little too good. He might need to leap to something like 24/7/4, and I’m not sure he has that playmaking yet or that he’ll have that scoring volume with so many scorers around him. It might take a Kemba Walker injury to really thrust Tatum into the MIP spotlight.

TIER II — SURPRISE!

5b. Markelle Fultz, Orlando

Surprise! Orlando is the only team to get two names, because Markelle Fultz is just too intriguing to not consider.

What if Fultz actually stays healthy and plays meaningful minutes for a good, playoff-bound Magic? What if he has a few triple-doubles and puts up 15/4/5? What if he overtakes D.J. Augustin and is the starting point guard for the East 4 or 5 seed? It’s not totally insane.

Fultz is not a conventional MIP. He’d be a better candidate for the defunct Comeback Player of the Year award. But if he goes from complete injury bust to meaningful NBA starter, it would be one of the stories of the season.

TIER I — THE BEST BETS

4. Terry Rozier, Charlotte

A decade ago, Rozier would have been an obvious pick. He steps into the Kemba role with every opportunity to lead the Hornets in scoring, and he already puts up good rebound and assist numbers. Rozier averaged 9/4/3 last year but slashed 15/6.5/4.5 per 36. Add in some increased volume and couldn’t you just see a big, inefficient 18/6/5 Rozier line?

A decade ago, that increased playing time and doubled-down scoring line might have won him the award, but we’re too smart in 2019. The Hornets are just too irrelevant unless Rozier also drags them to 35+ wins.

3. Derrick White, San Antonio

White was the forgotten man on Team USA, but it’s significant that Pop wanted him on the team. White and Dejounte Murray could both be MIP candidates, but White fits the profile better since he should have better counting numbers.

White is a combo scoring guard who can do a bit of everything, a classic Spursian player. Could he be “the guy” this year and take his 10/4/4 to somethinglike 16/5/6? We already know San Antonio will somehow make the playoffs again, so if White steps forward as their future, he’ll get a lot of shine.

2. Bam Adebayo, Miami

Adebayo has been my MIP pick all offseason. He has all the makings. Hassan Whiteside is finally gone, so Bam should see a huge jump in playing time. He’ll play next to Jimmy Butler and a healthy Goran Dragic, which should lead to a ton of easy scoring opportunities, and he’s certain to have plenty of highlight real dunks and blocks. Bam averaged 9/7 last year in 23 minutes a game. Couldn’t he easily get to 14/10 plus 3 assists and 3 stocks? Totally reasonable.

The breakout Bam season is coming. The only problem is Adebayo doesn’t fit the traditional MIP criteria. He doesn’t score enough and probably isn’t going to leap into stardom or near All-Star status. He may have to settle for fantasy breakout star and 2nd or 3rd on many MIP ballots.

1. Caris LeVert, Brooklyn

LeVert checks every box. He’s 25 years old, entering his fourth season. He plays for a likely playoff team and one that probably needs his scoring boost this year, with Kevin Durant sidelined.

Everyone remembers D’Angelo Russell as last year’s breakout Net, but it was Spencer Dinwiddie before that, and before him it was LeVert. LeVert put up 20/4/4 in the first 12 games of the season before getting injured, looking like a breakout star. But by the time he got healthy, Dinwiddie and DLo had stolen the show, and everyone forgot about Caris.

The new Nets feature Kyrie Irving but need a second scorer, and LeVert fits the bill. He’s featured in several preseason games and could get a boost if Kyrie starts the year slowly with his facial injury. LeVert scored 14ppg last year, so a jump to 18–20ppg is very conceivable. So is All-Star status in the East.

Brooklyn is looking for a third star with KD and Kyrie, and many like Zach Lowe have tabbed LeVert as the guy. LeVert just signed a 3-year $52-million extension that kicks in next season. If he breaks out as this year, that will be a downright bargain.

Caris LeVert is your 2019–20 Most Improved Player. ■

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