NBA Draft Stock Rising and Falling: Roby, Naz, Iggy, NAW
Are Isaiah Roby and Nickeil Alexander-Walker lottery prospects? Will Naz Reid and Iggy Brazdeikis slide out of the first round?
February means college basketball, with only a month to go until March Madness. As sports fans turn their attention from football to basketball, now is a great time to check in on NBA draft stock around the league. I watch a few college basketball games a day and have built 10,000 words of prospect research based mostly on my own scouting of each player. I’m not projecting on NBA intel, though I’ll note areas where I’m hearing similar findings from talent scouts. When I say someone’s rising or falling, I mean my own rankings.
We started last week with a look at Jontay Porter replacing Kevin Porter Jr. in my lottery and why Keldon Johnson is slipping while Matisse Thybulle is rising into the first round. This week we’ll look at two Big Ten players headed in opposite directions in Isaiah Roby and Iggy Brazdeikis, plus why I’m high on Nickeil Alexander-Walker but out on Naz Reid. We’ll do this every week or so from now on, so check back again soon!
STOCK DOWN: Naz Reid, LSU
There’s plenty to like about Naz Reid. He jumps off the screen physically, a big, imposing figure that looks immediately like an NBA talent. Reid is 6'10 with a nine-foot standing reach, and he’ll be 19 on draft day. He is a surprisingly good passer, with the vision to find guys out of the double team or even make advanced passes like a skip pass to an open corner three. Reid also has a comfortable-looking three at 37% so far and looks natural shooting it. He wants the ball, faces the defender up, and has the skill set to dominate. By size and tools alone, Naz Reid feels like a top-five prospect.
Unfortunately the mental side of the game appears to be lagging far behind. Every time I watch LSU, I’m frustrated by Reid’s laziness. He’s lazy on the boards and on defense, two areas he should dominate physically. Despite his size, Naz averages only six rebounds in 25mpg, including a measly four defensive boards. He’s already had four conference games with just one or two defensive rebounds, and he had a game earlier this season where he recorded only two rebounds in 41 minutes played. That’s inexcusable for a player with his size. Reid doesn’t get the 50–50 balls. He doesn’t have the energy and motor to match the tools.
On defense, Reid has a high center of gravity and doesn’t get into a crouch well, which means he’s not particularly quick on his feet and often gets blown by on the perimeter. His hands are always down on D, muting his length, and I see a lot of fake energy on defense, going for a highlight when it avails but disappointing in between. The defensive IQ isn’t there and Reid often gets caught daydreaming while his guy’s wide open. Against Auburn that led to several clean threes even though the scouting report on Auburn is that every player shoots threes. The lazy defense leads to foul trouble as Reid tries to make up ground. He’s had at least three fouls in 18 of 23 appearances, and he has only three games with more than one block. Again, inexcusable.
The worst part is it feels like Reid’s teammates notice those mental lapses, too. I see their shoulders sag at times. Reid floats in and out of games, and he can be a black hole on offense. He gets the ball and you know the shot is going up, like he’s thinking “Finally, it’s my turn.” It reminds me of Sacramento Boogie Cousins. Maybe that’s Reid’s upside, or maybe something like Julius Randle or Montrezl Harrell, able to dominate bench units for stretches. I’d rather draft P.J. Washington at the four, and I might even prefer Maryland’s Jalen Smith or Auburn’s Chuma Okeke, two raw prospects that probably won’t even declare this year but whose skills and instincts portend a brighter NBA future.
STOCK UP: Isaiah Roby, Nebraska
Whether you like Isaiah Roby depends on which Nebraska game you’ve seen. If you happened to watch his games against Maryland, you’re probably very intrigued. In the first ten minutes of last week’s matchup, Roby flashed the whole package, looking like a modern NBA four. He was aggressive from go, attacking on the dribble and showing the ability to drive or hit the jumper. He got back in transition after a miss and got a clean block, and on another play, he got a rebound and drove the full court through traffic for a dunk. I’m especially impressed that Roby plays so physical against Maryland, a team with two first-round big men. He was impressive on the boards and got into Bruno Fernando’s body and finished through him. Roby finished with 20 points, 14 rebounds, 2 steals, and 5 blocks, his best all-around game.
Of course, tune in another game and you might barely even notice Roby on the court. He is maddeningly inconsistent and often feels uninvolved on offense. All that physicality and aggression against Maryland? It’s missing other times as Roby sometimes goes through the motions, setting nothing screens and getting pushed around on defense or in the post. Roby is the only guy on Nebraska with size, so he’s their effective center in a conference with plenty of beef. He’ll be a combo forward in the NBA, but he’ll need to keep developing his shot to get there. He’s down to just 30% on 36 career threes made. The shot looks better than that, but the unknown shot and lack of strength are a bit worrisome for a player who just turned 21.
The flashes keep drawing you back in, though. Roby is 6'8 with a huge 7'3 wingspan, and he is super bouncy with a quick twitch and excellent second jump. Roby was a 6'2 guard as a high school freshman, and you can see it as he’s really comfortable dribbling and making plays with the ball in his hands. Much as it hurts him to play undersized center against Big Ten brutes, his quickness and dribbling give him the mismatch attacking from the perimeter. Roby has nice instincts at times but looks a bit slow at others. He lacks strength against some opponents but makes up for it with energy against others, adding good movement and recovery and an ability to fight around the brutes to get good positioning on defense and the boards.
Which Roby are NBA teams drafting? That remains to be seen. Even in the recent, impressive Maryland outing, Roby finished 5-for-16 on twos, forcing far too many shots in the second half of a game that got away, and he has more games scoring single- than double-digit points. With senior Isaac Copeland sidelined, Roby has upped his efforts to 14 points and 9 rebounds a game. Much like he does on the court, Isaiah Roby continues to float around the back-end of my lottery. I’m intrigued, a little more right now than with someone like Jalen McDaniels or KZ Okpala. Maybe an NBA team will be, too.
STOCK UP: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is not a guy I would’ve expected to be watching much. At first glance, he reminded me of one of my least favorite basketball archetypes, a pure scoring two. He’s a skinny dude — think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, both by body type and by lineage since that’s his cousin — that slashes well and has a pretty shot. He looked like the sort of guy that lights up NBA Summer League but can’t find minutes in the real games.
But as the season’s gone on, I’ve seen so much more from Alexander-Walker. His measurables are what first caught my attention. NAW stands 6'5.5 with a 6'9 wingspan, elite length for a guard. Combine that length with quick hands and there’s some intriguing defensive upside for a guy with the size and skills to guard one to three. His length really bothered Miami, though he tends to gamble a bit on D, which helps him make plays at times but also leaves his man open and leads to cheap fouls.
On offense, Alexander-Walker has come a long way since last year. The shot is sweet as always. Over 40% from downtown, it looks good every time and remains his calling card. But the playmaking is coming along nicely, too. Like cousin Shai, NAW uses long steps to get to the rim and contorts his length to finish. Against Louisville, he showed some secondary creation ability, initiating the offense with quick decisions and ball movement and some nice vision and zip on the passes, including a few where his height helped him find a teammate with a pass most would miss. Off ball, NAW has good movement and shows good burst off cuts, which will help him get that pretty shot open.
There’s a lot to like as a 3-and-D prospect, especially when you add in Buzz Williams’s history developing guards like Jimmy Butler, Wes Matthews, and Jae Crowder. I wrote last week that Keldon Johnson is slipping on my draft board. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has caught him and might well pass him.
STOCK DOWN: Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan
Iggy Brazdeikis is the consummate team player. He’s the heart and soul of a top-10 Michigan team. He plays with energy on defense and brings a rounded skill set on offense, able to hit the open three or put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. Iggy has a step-back three, and the IQ appears to be there. He’s fun to root for. But I’m not sure what he is in the NBA.
The problems start with Iggy’s size and age. Brazdeikis will be closer to 21 than 20 on draft day, so he’s already aged ahead of his freshman cohorts, and he has a very small wingspan for his size, just 6'8 versus 6'7 height. That’s the wingspan of a two, but at 225 pounds, Iggy is thick and plays like a four in college. His unique ability to hit the shot or beat his defender to the rim is unique because he’s a four. But if he can’t defend that sort of player at the next level, those skills suddenly aren’t all that unique or exciting for a two or three.
Brazdeikis makes a highlight play or two every game, but he can also go missing in the box score. In two games against Wisconsin, Iggy scored just two points combined on a miserable 1-for-14 shooting. For all his presumed defensive impact, Iggy’s under one steal and one block per game, typically bad signs for a player’s defensive potential. He lacks lateral quickness to guard smaller players and size to guard bigger ones. Iggy is playing the role I’d want him to be in the NBA — a glue guy four that can dribble, defend, and shoot — but his impact comes and goes and gets muted further against the toughest and most physical competition. That will only ramp up even more in the NBA.
I never tend to love Michigan draft prospects. I’m not in on Jordan Poole or Charles Matthews, and I wasn’t a big fan of Moe Wagner or D.J. Wilson. I like Iggy’s feel and intangibles, but if his game is predicated on smart defense and offensive mismatches and he doesn’t have the size profile to do either of those at the next level, I have a hard time getting there. Especially in a draft rich with wing prospects, I count as many as 15 “wing” type players I’d take ahead of Brazdeikis if they all declare. Another year in school could help develop more consistency, but I’m not sure the physical profile will ever fit.
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