My Latest Writings On International Affairs

Russia-Ukraine War, Future BRICS Members Expansion, Non-Aligned Powers and Food Security

Russia-Ukraine War

Tensions in the Black Sea are heating up. Both Russia and Ukraine have made aggressive statements aimed at provoking each other.

Ukrinform released a statement on behalf of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stating that Russian ships passing through a newly proposed corridor for merchant ships will not be observed.

Even while Russian ships have allegedly sought to intimidate other merchant ships in support of Ukrainian trade around the Black Sea, they are reportedly based in the northeastern part of the Black Sea near Russian territory. See the map below:

You can see from the map above that Russia’s Black Sea maritime areas include Novorossiyk and Sochi.

Meanwhile, a lot of the merchant ships are being spotted at coastal areas around Bulgaria and Roumania. See Varna and Constanta on the map.

It was also reported on 13 August 2023 that Russia fired warning shots, using automatic weapons from a naval vessel, at merchant ships operating in the Black Sea. These warning shots were followed up by a staging and landing manoeuvre carried out by Russian military forces.

These are very serious incidents. Although there have not been any casualties reported, it is the first sign of things to come as more and more merchant ships appear to be resuming activities on the Black Sea. It’s important to remember that the Black Sea is a vital trade route for all of the countries in this maritime area: Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria and Roumania.

Bulgaria and Roumania are increasing local production of naval ships and other facilities in response to these tensions. For instance, the Bulgarian Navy is building its first modern corvette at the MTG Dolphin Shipyard in Varna. According to a definition by Britannica a corvette is a small, fast naval vessel that ranks lower than a frigate. A corvette is easier to manufacture and maintain, which is important to ramping up large-scale production in a timely manner.

Roumania’s navy also announced on 14 August 2023 that it will deploy a ship and helicopter to search for mines on the Black Sea coast. Mines are a constant threat from both land and maritime areas. In this case, mines in the Black Sea have been used to deter advancements by ships seeking to find other shipping routes for grains and other commodities from Russia and Ukraine.

What’s happening in the Black Sea right now? Militarization and re-building is commencing in support of Ukraine by its Black Sea neighbours, particularly Roumania and Bulgaria.

Roumania and Bulgaria are advancing their capabilities as NATO partners. On the Black Sea, the two countries already serve as key links for defence and security cooperation with other NATO members. Now, it appears that the two countries are expanding on their capabilities in arms deals and defence cooperation as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Read more about these events with this story: The Geo-Politics Of The Black Sea.

Future BRICS Members Expansion

Right now, the expansion of BRICS is at the top of the group’s agenda. Emerging markets from Saudi Arabia to Argentina have been allowed to join BRICS this year.

However, this BRICS expansion comes at the expense of food security. While everyone is talking about the BRICS success in capturing the emerging markets, the future surrounding these countries is very uncertain. They are some of the most vulnerable countries to energy and food security dilemmas.

I want to focus here on food security.

Even as the BRICS Summit 2023 is being held, India announced it would ban sugar exports to global markets. This is a lingering effect from Covid-19 policies. Many of the countries producing raw materials have decided to ban exports right out in order to control pricing and supply in domestic markets.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is struggling to combat food security in the region. Rising costs of agricultural commodities during the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted food imports to Thailand, The Philippines and others.

Rice is the key food commodity in this region. During the BRICS Summit 2023, reports about food inflation are pointing to rising costs for rice producers, such as India and Vietnam, which will affect global markets.

By the way, India also became the fourth country to land on the moon this week. This is a nice display of power for BRICS, but banning exports of sugar is a major weakness. What’s the point of BRICS after all? Landing on the moon may impress other BRICS members but it does nothing for the emerging markets.

The BRICS 2023 Summit was held this week in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They are considered to be the leading group of countries in the emerging markets space.

To know more about the key highlights from this year’s summit, read the full story in Areas & Producers: BRICS Summit 2023.

Non-Aligned Powers and Food Security

I am proud to share with the Medium community about my latest story published in The Diplomatic Pouch, the Online Magazine of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University in Washington D.C.

The story is entitled, “Non-aligned powers and food security: Unpacking Brazil’s fertilizer diplomacy under the backdrop of the Black Sea Grain Initiative”.

It was published as an analysis, featured along with other analyses by writers in the publication.

After a brief introduction, the story is broken up into four parts.

1.) How the war in Ukraine has affected Brazil’s fertilizer supplies

• Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, global fertilizer supplies have been a critical aspect of Brazil’s economy and foreign policy agenda.
• Brazilian government officials went to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for what they called “fertilizer diplomacy” in May 2022. Notably, they held talks with counterparts in Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco.
• These diplomatic visits reveal the priority that Brazil is giving to MENA to ensure diversified supplies of fertilizer imports despite concerns over fertilizer import dependency.

2.) Russia and Brazil are using fertilizer to reshape their diplomatic relationships

• Non-aligned countries like Brazil must treat this situation delicately.
• Global commodities are a critical part of the country’s economic growth and, thus, a vital “carrot-and-stick” toolkit for engaging in diplomacy with other non-aligned states.

3.) How Lula’s victory last year has affected Brazil’s foreign policy agenda

• Lula’s three-day visit to China in April 2023 arguably demonstrates that Brazil has returned to the international stage.
• Lula’s line to the world said it all: “Brazil is back.” What this means for BRICS, however, is that Brazil’s trade relationship with China remains a top priority.

4.) Conclusion

• Brazil is going to play a more important role on the international stage in the future.
• The country’s foreign policy should become more oriented toward the developing world’s economic interests.

Read the full story in Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy with this link.

Joshua Mayfield works as a legal analyst and language consultant in Mandarin Chinese, French, and Russian. His international relations research background is in U.S.-Australia relations and the Indo-Pacific strategy. He holds a master’s degree in law from Shanghai’s East China Normal University, specializing in China studies. He manages a publication on Medium entitled, Areas & Producers, covering global markets, advanced technologies, and the latest news stories in international business, finance, law, and politics.