LIFE SKILLS

How to Make Logical Decisions Today and For the Future

Tools for evaluating needs, motives, steps, and anticipated outcomes

Ed and I were in love. We’d been working together and dating for a while and had been looking forward to going to Las Vegas together. I dropped two coins in a slot machine and he gave me an incredulous look.

“You have to play the maximum number of coins.” With a Master’s degree in Business Administration and a minor in Applied Mathematics working on a computer system, I knew he could be a little rigid.

I shook my head. “No, I’m not planning on winning this time.” He was baffled. “And I’m not going to marry you,” I added thoughtfully.

Ed was suddenly uncomfortable. “Because I’m gay? I can overlook you being born with the wrong body.”

I had fun explaining my long-departed great-grandmother might not be ready to help yet, I wasn’t wearing the right shoes, and the machine knew better than to pay me less than the maximum. We were still developing our relationship — the slot machine and me.

Marrying Ed wasn’t a viable option for a lot of reasons, but leading my list was his lack of appreciation for the not-so-obvious variables that go into making decisions big and small.

Part of the fun with slots is knowing you’re gambling with your bets. For me, it was entertainment, not an exercise in optimal productivity with risk and reward calculations at every turn.

“So I should simply decide how much I’m willing to lose and bet it all at once in a single hand?” He may not be a lot of fun, I thought.

“Maybe split your money in half and play two hands,” he relented.

Decide like a successful business

The corporation Ed and I worked for had dedicated resources for weighing each strategic business decision. Risk management, cost/benefit analysis, industry standards, competitive practices, supply chain management, market trends and positioning, and finance and legal consultations all were taken into account before major changes could threaten the well-being of the company, its employees, and shareholders.

Most of us don’t have professional analysts to help make decisions but we can and do use the same principles. We don’t make a habit of long-range planning and contingency preparations if something goes wrong.

Informed decisions are less risky than flipping a coin. Each major plan should be revisited regularly as we ask “What if?”

We’re often surprised when a lack of thoughtful planning has a negative impact. We may weigh the pros and cons of some actions but often don’t take stock of where we are now and our inactions.

We learn early on each of our actions spurs a reaction. There’s a domino effect and unforeseen consequences to what we do. Interviewers ask, “What’s your five-year plan?” We normally come prepared with a list of goals and hopes. Less often do we ask ourselves, “What will happen if I don’t take this job interview/go on this date/make this call?” We think the answer is “nothing,” and continue with the next task.

The result of inaction is limited options and staying where we are.

There’s no guarantee you can or should stay because it’s convenient.

Recognize your needs and motives, then remove emotion

Most of us believe we have a pretty good idea of who we are and what we want. Sometimes we simply recite our resumes or a description we adopted long ago. So, we’re wrong.

Getting to know a new friend, I outlined my most important accomplishments, causes I care deeply about, habits and hobbies, and the types of books, movies, and music I like. Then I considered my answers and noticed common themes. Many of the things that truly define and interest me are missing from my resume.

We’re asked what we want to be when we grow up from a very early age, but never who we’d like to be.

Many of us spend years doing what we think we’re supposed to, but not what we want to. Career options were once very limited for women — teacher, nurse, flight attendant, or homemaker. Men and women alike were exposed to just a few options without the ability to discover intrinsic talents and be matched with roles that suited their natures.

Free online personality and career choice surveys can help determine the environment, focus, and fields you may find most satisfying. Similar tests exist for identifying the type of school environment most conducive to your style of learning and areas of study you may find most rewarding.

Minimizing the number of times we say, “I should have thought of that,” is the goal.

Don’t be intimidated — we use logic every day

When I was learning to code we worked with crude “Truth Diagrams,” and dreamt up endless variations of nested IF-THEN-ELSE statements.

This is a low-level granular exercise that can help define specific variables and unexpected conditions that might throw a wrench in a program's logical flow. It can be tedious but is good training for anticipating anomalies and unexpected requirements.

Making daily and major decisions employs the same logic but requires variables like feelings, goals, and a clear understanding of complex resources for each person and system involved.

Example: Will you be able to get your spouse to the doctor on time?

IF you can get time off work THEN IF the clinic scheduled the appointment properly THEN IF your spouse is also ready THEN IF there are no delays, ELSE ELSE ELSE ELSE. You get it.

Life is full of dependent relationships, variables we can and cannot control, and complex conditions.

We can anticipate the concerns and position ourselves for the best outcome. Different methods are available to help define large problems or goals, break them into manageable parts, and take the best course of action by being prepared and knowledgeable.

Why look now? Reassess your position often

Recently I was reminded it’s important to consider the financial, as well as physical and mental well-being of those we care for. Despite appearances, we can all get a surprise call asking for help from an extended family member. Medical or natural disasters can wipe out savings quickly. The loss of a job, divorce, and other events can take a huge toll. Family members’ sense of pride may inhibit frank discussions but we owe it to eachother to be aware of vulnerabilities and ask for help when needed.

Think of the people you’d drop everything for and go into debt to help. Put egos aside exploring possible vulnerabilities in your own and your loved ones’ lives.

I should have thought of my aging parents running into serious problems.

Identifying the issues

One day when my daughter was an adolescent she was unusually distracted and stressed. I asked her to make a list of everything that was weighing on her mind. She could keep the information private or share it.

Alex filled up nearly two pages rather quickly and handed the first one over. As expected, a lot of her concerns were about other people’s problems that affected her indirectly if at all. We discussed how much influence she had over the possibility her friend might move away, or her history teacher could be in a bad mood and give out bad grades.

I asked her to step outside her circle and look in from another perspective when deciding how much of a difference she could expect to make. Before long, she agreed to cross out those problems that weren’t her own.

Then the task was to look at the problems from the perspective of the other party involved in the conflict, but remove egos and personalities. What could Alex do to change the dynamic?

Alex applied this cliched practice of seeing problems as opportunities and soon reduced the number of issues by two-thirds. Her anxiety was reduced and she was more effective once the issues and possible solutions were clearly defined.

Further defining the issues and accepting what we have control over are very often the two most difficult parts of finding a solution.

The Serenity Prayer is appropriately named.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. — Reinhold Niebuhr, Lutheran theologian (1892–1971)

Tools for making decisions and setting goals

Tools used in business, academics, and science can be applied to our decision-making to avoid missed opportunities and costly mistakes.

Several effective decision-making tools are based on the Eisenhower Method of resource management and prioritization. Psychological and behavioral studies related to learning and information systems include Albert Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) which posits social behavior is based on other’s views and actions.

Entrepreneurs and others who attain great success often make decisions and take risks most people wouldn’t consider.

Developing our abilities to analyze situations and make informed decisions leads to greater confidence and satisfaction in our lives.

I’ve included links to Wikipedia for more information on the various tools.

1. Five whys: Five whys (or 5 whys) is an iterative interrogative technique used to explore the cause-and-effect relationships underlying a particular problem. The primary goal of the technique is to determine the root cause of a defect or problem by repeating the question “Why?” five times. The answer to the fifth why should reveal the root cause of the problem.

2. Priority Matrix: Priority Matrix is a time management software application that is supported on several platforms, including Microsoft Windows, Mac OS X, Android, and iOS. It is based on the Eisenhower Method of arranging tasks by urgency and importance in a 2x2 matrix. Priority Matrix offers a cloud-based synchronization of data, allowing for data management across multiple devices. The application is also loosely based on David Allen’s Getting Things Done methodology of improving productivity.

3. Decision matrix: A decision matrix is a list of values in rows and columns that allows an analyst to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information. Elements of a decision matrix show decisions based on certain decision criteria. The matrix is useful for looking at large masses of decision factors and assessing each factor’s relative significance by weighting them by importance.

4. Force-field analysis: In social science, force-field analysis provides a framework for looking at the factors (“forces”) that influence a situation, originally social situations. It looks at forces that are either driving the movement toward a goal or hindering movement. The principle, developed by Kurt Lewin, is a significant contribution to the fields of social science, psychology, social psychology, community psychology, communication, organizational development, process management, and change management.

5. SWOT analysis: (or SWOT matrix) is a strategic planning and strategic management technique used to help a person or organization identify Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats related to business competition or project planning. It is sometimes called situational assessment or situational analysis. Additional acronyms using the same components include TOWS and WOTS-UP.

6. Mind (or mental) mapping: A mind map is a diagram used to visually organize information into a hierarchy, showing relationships among pieces of the whole. It is often created around a single concept, drawn as an image in the center of a blank page, to which associated representations of ideas such as images, words, and parts of words are added. Major ideas are connected directly to the central concept, and other ideas branch out from those major ideas.

7. Fishbone/Ishikawa diagram: Causal diagrams created by Kaoru Ishikawa that show the potential causes of a specific event. Common uses of the Ishikawa diagram are product design and quality defect prevention to identify potential factors causing an overall effect. Each cause or reason for imperfection is a source of variation. Causes are usually grouped into major categories to identify and classify these sources of variation.

8. Pareto analysis: Pareto analysis also known as the 80/20 rule, is a formal technique useful where many possible courses of action are competing for attention. In essence, the problem-solver estimates the benefit delivered by each action, then selects a number of the most effective actions that deliver a total benefit reasonably close to the maximum possible one. The 80/20 rule states that 20% of causes determine 80% of problems, but this is not a scientific certainty. This makes sense, as usually only 20% of our concerted efforts and decisions determine future success in achieving our goals.

9. Brainstorming: Brainstorming is a creativity technique in which a group of people interact to suggest ideas spontaneously in response to a prompt. Stress is typically placed on the volume and variety of ideas, including ideas that may seem outlandish or “off-the-wall”. Ideas are noted down during the activity, but not assessed or critiqued until later. The absence of criticism and assessment is intended to avoid inhibiting participants in their idea production.

10. Cost/Benefit analysis: CBA, sometimes also called benefit–cost analysis, is a systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives. It is used to determine options that provide the best approach to achieving benefits while preserving savings in, for example, transactions, activities, and functional business requirements. A CBA is commonly used to evaluate business or policy decisions (particularly public policy), commercial transactions, and project investments.

Conclusion

As I said earlier, I embarked on this essay after I was reminded of a blind spot. There are areas in each of our lives where we don’t often look. Hopefully, this essay has provided some tools and ideas to avoid later saying, “I should’ve thought of that.”

Exploring these tools can help us lead more productive, satisfying lives as we identify our strengths and weaknesses as well as the challenges we face.

Managing resources like our time, energy, and money helps when considering outside resources that may be needed, such as people or knowledge that can assist us.

Specific decision-making tools may be designed for unique purposes, but they all are predicated on an understanding of goals, the risks and rewards associated with actions, and identifying cause and effect. A measurable course of action with specific steps is planned based on relationships, values, and priorities.

I often write because it forces me to clearly state my thoughts. I once read, “I don’t know it until I write it,” and it rang true for me.

Whatever you choose to work through troubling issues, know that much of the battle is won simply by deciding to address them.

As my daughter often says, “You got this.”

Thanks to editor Susan Brearley for her help.

Copyright © 2023 Patricia Jeanne