Geopolitics
Global Threat Index August 2023
Since April 2022, my Global Threat Index has continued to climb…
I started compiling my personal Global Threat Index way back in April 2022. I have to say that when I started it I never expected to be still writing about it almost eighteen months later. I tracked the index more or less on a monthly basis and then it became dormant — stable if you like — over the winter months. But recently several events and developments have brought it into mind again.
August is the holiday month in many Northern hemisphere countries, but Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war continues is Ukraine. And the threats ramp up elsewhere around the world. I’m feeling punch-drunk by all the input and recently wrote about history repeating itself and the world sleepwalking into war.
Last night I watched to 2022 version of Ramarque’s novel ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’. It was another take on the 1929 novel about the senselessness of war and man’s inbuilt need to fight. But war isn’t always senseless. Sometimes it’s necessary to stop an evil empire.
The 1914–18 First World War was all about attrition, as indeed was the Second World War. Money and resources win, hands down.
And we’re seeing it again in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Attrition. Who will tire first?
The Russian invasion seems to have triggered a wider nervousness about the dangers, with some commentators concerned about other countries seeing an opportunity to realise their imperialistic ambitions.
Russia would love to see China attacking Taiwan - it needs a war in the Far East to consume Western resources, attention and drive down public support.
Russia is also fomenting war in Niger, for the same reasons.
Central America
And now Russia is planning to send troops to Nicaragua, although other countries including the United States, have also been given permission. Short visits, twice a year.
The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has authorised Russian troops, planes and ships to deploy to Nicaragua for purposes of training, law enforcement or emergency response.
In a decree published this week, and confirmed by Russia on Thursday, Ortega will allow Russian troops to carry out law enforcement duties, “humanitarian aid, rescue and search missions in emergencies or natural disasters”. — AlJazeera, 10 Jun 2022.
I don’t see this as affecting my personal threat index, but it is certainly a distraction.
The Far East
In the Far East, China continues its military build-up and raises the stakes with another exercise to prepare for war with Taiwan.
Command spokesman Shi Yi described the drills, conducted off the north and southwest sides of the island, as exercises to “seize maritime and airspace control”.
…Taiwan’s defence ministry said it had detected 42 PLA aircraft, 26 of which crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, a de facto dividing line. The PLA aircraft also conducted a joint combat patrol with 8 navy vessels.
And further East…
We have rocky relations in the Bering Strait where China and Russia have just completed an exercise in the Bering Strait.
In the Bering Strait, the U.S. (Alaska) and Russia (Siberia) are separated by what are known as the "Big" and "Little" Diomede Islands. These islands are about 2.5 miles (4 km) apart from one another. The international boundary runs equidistantly between these two islands, so the US and Russia share a border.
Here’s the land layout from Wikipedia. I’m a sailor and would point out that the compass rose in the image is incorrect as the directions of True North aligns with the meridians. Nevertheless, it’s the best image I could find and less confusing to the layman than my own nautical chart which shows dangerous rocks between the two islands. But I don’t think rocks are the problem here.
Eleven military vessels from China and Russia found operating near the Aleutian Islands last week were met by four U.S. Navy destroyers, Alaska’s two U.S. senators said.
…Although the senators’ statement suggested the vessels were passing through U.S. waters, the Northern Command told the Journal the combined force did not appear to enter U.S. territory. “Air and maritime assets under our commands conducted operations to assure the defense of the United States and Canada. The patrol remained in international waters and was not considered a threat,” it told the Journal in a statement.
Back in Europe
Poland and the Baltic States are very nervous about threats to the Suwalki Gap.
Poland
Poland has just completed its largest military exercise in recent times and is ramping up its military strength.
The Armed Forces Day parade on Tuesday [15 August 2023] marked the 103rd anniversary of Poland’s victory over the Soviet Union’s Red Army in the Battle of Warsaw in 1920, during which Polish troops defeated Bolshevik forces advancing on Europe.
…Some 2,000 troops from Poland and other NATO countries took part in the parade as well as 200 military vehicles and other equipment and almost 100 aircraft.
Text from Telegram:
Any attack by the “Wagner” mercenaries on Poland will be regarded as an attack by Russia, said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the permanent representative of the United States to the United Nations.
The representative of the USA commented on the information that a few days ago, the “Wagnerians” moved in the direction of the Suwalski Corridor, which connects Poland and the Baltic States.
“We have seen their malicious actions on the African continent. So we’re concerned that this group, at the behest of the Russian government — because they’re not acting independently of the Russian government — poses a threat to all of us. And we must make it clear that any attacks by the Wagner group will be considered attacks by the Russian government,” Thomas-Greenfield emphasized.
Poland is stationing 10,000 troops on the Belarus border.
The Baltic States
The Baltic States — Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia — are closing their border with Belarus due to the threat of Wagner PMC mercenaries.
Three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Poland, discussed a proposal to completely close all border points with Belarus, Lithuanian media reported on Wednesday.
The final decision is expected to be reached at talks in Warsaw, Poland’s capital, on August 28, the state-run LRT news agency reported, citing a statement by Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite.
“Our main focus and goal are to have as many border guards as possible at the border because this is where we need the largest number of officers,” she added. — AA.com.tr
And the Baltic States are joining the G7' declaration of support for Ukraine.
Conclusion
All around the world the threats are ramping up. Except, perhaps, South America. Venzuela has been strangely out of the news of late.
My last calculation (i.e. gut feeling) put my Global Threat Index at 71 (having started at 50). That is, I felt that there was a probability p = 0.71 of a wider war, back in October 2022. That was just after the first successful attack by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge.
Since then, nothing has happened to reduce that probability.
Ukraine has upped the ante, with several successful attacks on the Kerch Bridge (and other Crimea bridges), Russian airfields, ships, supply lines and even Moscow itself. Today Russia is on the retreat towards Tokmak and incurring huge losses of personnel and equipment.
We have seen that strangest of events, Prigozhin’s March on Moscow on June 24. I thought that would lance the boil, but no.
Russia is increasingly desperate, and after yesterday’s (19 August) genocidal attack on the theatre in Chernihiv resulting in seven deaths and over 130 injured people, opinion is strengthening against them even more.
Even Lukashenko in Belarus is being ambivalent about his pal Putin, hedging his bets as he begins to see the writing on the wall. “I knew nothing, honestly…”
Another problem is that the West has been too slow with arms and that has caused the problem to fester when it should have been lanced. That has made things worse, another point upward on the index.
So where’s my Index now?
p = 0.8.
I never thought that we would ever reach that number.
80% chance of a wider war.
It’s frightening. Maybe I should be watching more romcom films instead of historical conflicts and how world wars started by leaders failing to face up to reality.
And maybe I need to change my reading material too? Having just finished Churchill’s ‘The Finest Hour’, perhaps I should be reading ‘Mad’ magazine, if that’s still going. Yes, I checked.
Yes, that’s the August 2017 cover, and even this month’s would probably feature the same characters. Unfortunately.
And the MAD strategic concept — is that still valid?
We may soon be approaching a reality check.
More context:
Suwalki Gap
From November 2022:
If you follow me I guarantee variety in your inbox with some unusual perspectives! I write on a wide range of topics that interest me including humour, tech, space, geopolitics and travel. I also write about…
…somnambulism
My novels are available at my Gumroad bookstore. Also at Amazon and Apple
If you appreciate stories like these and want to support me and other writers, please consider signing up to become a Medium member. It’s only $5 a month, giving you unlimited access to incredible stories on Medium. If you sign up using my link, I’ll earn a small commission at no extra cost to you.
Or maybe just buy me a coffee? and tell me what you liked reading (or not)…
