Ukraine War

Ukraine, UK, USA and Sleepwalking into War

History repeating itself yet again. Do U never learn? Send the ATACMs now!

I’ve left my boat in the Antipodes for a few weeks and I’m currently on a brief visit to the UK to visit my overdraft. Last week I went to the cinema to see ‘Oppenheimer’. Good, but not great, I thought.

Then two days later on Netflix I watched ‘Darkest Hour’ starring Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill. It was an excellent film, although a little artistic licence had been taken with historical fact. At the desk where I write when in the UK are books which my partner’s father owned. He was a British Army officer who survived Dunkirk and later campaigns in North Africa and Italy. The books include the six volumes of Churchill’s ‘The Second World War’ and also ‘The Finest Hour’. I thought I’d do a fact check on the film and started reading ‘The Finest Hour’.

Halfway through, the parallels of the situation of the United Kingdom in 1940 and Ukraine in 2023 struck me.

Yes, there are key differences. And key lessons.

Hitler: Operation Sea Lion

The United Kingdom is surrounded by water. That provided a huge logistical challenge for Hitler in 1940 and his High Command planned Operation ‘Sea Lion’ for the invasion of Great Britain. The Kriegsmarine (German Navy) set several conditions which had to be satisfied before they could guarantee — for want of a better word — the relatively safe transportation of the required 155,000 German troops and equipment to the British coast.

One key stipulation was that the Luftwaffe ensure ‘complete air superiority’ over the English Channel (which is 26 miles wide at its narrowest from Calais to Dover) to protect the German invasion fleet.

As preparations for ‘Sea Lion’ came to a head, the air war over the English Channel and South East England reached a crescendo.

The ‘Battle of Britain’ in the summer of 1940 was won by Great Britain, but it was a very close run trial. There had been many bomber attacks (with fighter cover) on London but on Sunday 15th September came the largest. At one particular time that day every serviceable British fighter plane in the South East was airborne, all reserves committed. The German attack was repulsed.

That led to Churchill’s statement some days later:

Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.

The records show that 15th September was deemed by both sides to be the optimal for the initial landing on the English coast, with adequate moonlight and favourable tides, together with a high probability of fair weather.

Hitler decided not to get his feet wet.

However, in the months leading up to September 17th 1940 when Hitler finally canned ‘Sea Lion’ (postponed indefinitely), there had been furious British diplomatic activity a the very highest levels with the United States. Churchill and the War Cabinet had requested that the United States supply forty to fifty of their obsolete (but reconditioned) destroyers so that there could be adequate naval forces in the English Channel to defend against a likely invasion.

In the event the destroyers were supplied. President Roosevelt was very pro-Brtiain, but it took months of wrangling as President Roosevelt had to manage the conflicts within and between the Senate and Congress members, many of whom took an isolationist stance, along with much of the US public. There was also concern about the disposition of the British naval fleet if a German invasion was successful and a ‘Quisling’ (German puppet) government installed in the UK. Could the British Navy be used to attack the USA?

A very clever political deal was worked out and agreed on the 5 September 1940 (destroyers for bases).

The USA had helped the UK with other weaponry and equipment. In 1940 the US sold the UK 600,000 rifles, 1,000 guns and ammunition, raw materials and components. The US moved from being a ‘neutral’ to a ‘non-belligerent’.

Putin: Special military operation

Are you seeing any parallels of the current situation in Ukraine with 1940? OK, forget about the English Channel for now — it is the politics that are important. And air superiority.

Ukraine forces have tried to work with NATO strategy and tactics, but without effective air cover. There are reports that Ukraine has had to modify its tactics following heavy losses of armour in the early days of the July 2023 counter-offensive. The NATO combined arms doctrine failed for want of air cover.

What about ATACMS and F-16s? Why is it taking so long to supply them when all of free Europe says Go?

It has taken many months for the US Houses to come round to a positive position on the supply of these critical weapons. But now they have, it seems. And still the White House appears to be dragging its feet.

What has taken so long for them to be sent?

Sleepwalking

Why is the US sleepwalking into a wider war?

I have to say that much as in 1940, it seems to me that the US has been hedging its bets in Ukraine, waiting to see who the likely winner would be.

As I write I’m seeing arguments about whether F-16 pilot training plans are ready for approval by the US, about Germany not wanting to commit to sending Taurus cruise missile until the US agrees to send ATACMS. You get the picture? Bureaucratic delay and fear of the unknown.

It’s been clear for some months that every time Russian forces have a setback, or there is a problem in the Russian command then the reins are eased a little in the US — and Germany.

The first slow step was in late 2022 with the supply of HIMARS. The latest episode was the release of cluster munitions to Ukraine.

What exactly will it take to get the F-16s and ATACMS shipped?

The UK stood alone against Hitler in 1940 and led the long-range way with Storm Shadows in Ukraine in 2023.

The US had to join global war in 1941 when Japan attacked Pearl Harbour. Don’t sleepwalk into another war.

Wake up, ship ATACMS now and start F-16 pilot training.

Putin will not go nuclear, so how is how going to escalate? Attack Poland? They’re ready and waiting.

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