Final Predictions for the 94th Academy Award Nominations

On Tuesday, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their nominations for the 94th Annual Academy Awards. With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to upend the movie industry and massive changes to related awards shows, this awards season is wildly unpredictable. Here, I take a deep dive into the races for the top 8 awards.

Click here to see my review of the 94th Academy Awards

Last year’s Academy Awards ceremony was a case of co-existing extremes. The top winners were richly deserving and inspired, with Nomadland, The Father, Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Promising Young Woman splitting the top 8 awards. However, the ceremony was among the worst ever and it wasn’t the limitations imposed by COVID that made it so. Rather, it was notably misguided creative decisions. (Click here to read my review of last year’s ceremony and more about my take on the winners.)

When last year’s Academy Awards were finally held, many assumed that things would return to “business as usual” this year. But that is most definitely not the case. The pandemic continues to rage on, disrupting production and release timelines and fundamentally altering how people consumed weightier, prestigious films. With older audiences avoiding theaters like the plague (literally), the majority of Oscar contenders were relegated to streaming and those that did make their way to theaters grossed a fraction of what they likely would have pre-pandemic. One could argue that the wider availability of at-home viewing actually increases the amount of voters that see a given film. That is likely the case. However, streaming viewership metrics are much fuzzier than box office receipts and the reactions of voting members at packed screenings are much more impactful than the ones they have in their living rooms. Thus, it is harder than usual to know what is resonating with potential voters.

Furthermore, several of the other major industry awards have undergone changes that likely decrease their impact on Oscar voting. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which runs the Golden Globe Awards, was crippled by allegations of discrimination and corruption last year. Their massively decreased credibility and resulting lack of a televised ceremony this year means that they are much less likely to influence Oscar voters. The British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs) are also significantly less likely to influence Oscar voters as they have moved to a curious new juried voting process to help increase inclusivity and diversity. Although BAFTA and Academy membership does overlap a decent amount, the markedly different voting procedures have rendered them apples and oranges. The Critics’ Choice Awards is also in less of a position to influence the Oscars, as the ceremony was postponed until after Oscar voting due to COVID-19. (The group usually unveils their winners at televised ceremony before the Oscar nominations are announced.) Only the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards remains largely intact. However, their membership has ballooned since they merged with the American Federation for Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA) in 2012 and there is little overlap between voters for the SAG Awards and the Oscars. (Click here for an article where I dive into what the picks of these four awards granting bodies so far mean for this year’s Oscars.)

All of these factors culminate in a year that feels just as unpredictable — if not more so — than last year. Some clear frontrunners have emerged, but there seem to be precious few “locks,” especially in the crowded acting categories. I can’t help but expect that there will be at least a few gasps during Tuesday morning’s nomination announcement.

So why should you listen to me when it comes to Oscar predictions? Well, I have done pretty well in the past. Of the 43 nominees in the top eight categories last year, I correctly predicted 35 (81%). This is slightly down from the prior year (which ranged from 82%-86% accuracy), but still strong. Of the 8 I got wrong last year, I listed all of them as alternates to my predicted nominees.

Below I cover the main 8 races (Best Picture, Best Director, the four acting categories, and the two screenplay categories). I provide a brief analysis of the race followed by my predictions about who the likely nominees are in order of likelihood, with those in bold being my final set of predicted nominees. Because I am predicting more shocks than usual, I have been bolder in my predictions this year. I am predicting some presumed safe-bets to be snubbed and some out-of-left-field shockers. I may be wrong on a few, but what’s the fun in predicting only the safe bets?

I’ll be back on Tuesday morning with my reactions to the nominations.

BEST PICTURE

For the first time in over a decade, the Best Picture race is guaranteed to have 10 nominees. After expanding the number of nominees from 5 to 10 in 2009 and 2010, the Academy switched to a system where there were at least 5 and no more than 10 nominees and a relatively complex algorithm was used to determine the exact number. As of this year, they have reverted back to 10 nominees. The top 8 candidates here feel pretty locked in. Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast and Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog have been award season’s most consistent players; Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up overcame weak reviews to become a major industry favorite; Denis Villeneuve’s Dune and Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story combined a big budget and epic scope and were met with rapturous reviews; Marcus Reinaldo Green’s King Richard and Sian Heder’s CODA are touching family-oriented films that have had very strong awards season runs; and despite some initial uncertainty about how it would play with voters, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza has had a very strong run that all but assures it a spot in the top 10. My guess is that if the old rule was in place, this year’s Best Picture lineup would just be those 8 films. But what will fill the last two slots? There are numerous strong contenders including two biopics that got middling reviews but have been faring surprisingly well (Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci and Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos), two critically acclaimed prestige films that have fared inconsistently at the other awards (Guillermo Del Toro’s film noir Nightmare Alley and Joel Coen’s Shakespeare adaptation The Tragedy of Macbeth), two critically adored foreign films (Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car and Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers), and two blockbusters that some are holding out hope make a surprise appearance (Cary Joji Fukunaga’s No Time to Die and Jon Watts’s Spider-Man: No Way Home). It honestly could be any of them but my best guess is that voters will continue their love affair with Joel Coen and go gaga for Lady Gaga, resulting in Macbeth and Gucci taking the last two spots.

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don’t Look Up
4. Dune
5. King Richard
6. CODA
7. West Side Story
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. House of Gucci
11. Being the Ricardos
12. Drive My Car
13. Nightmare Alley
14. tick, tick…Boom!
15. The Lost Daughter
16. Passing
17. No Time to Die
18. Spider-Man: No Way Home
19. Parallel Mothers
20. The Worst Person in the World
21. C’mon C’mon

BEST DIRECTOR

Based on the way awards season has played out so far, it seems like we have a locked-in final five for Best Director. Jane Campion seems assured to become the first woman nominated twice in the category (it’s a true embarrassment for the Academy that it took 94 years to make this happen). Denis Villeneuve and Steven Spielberg seem very likely to be rewarded for adapting beloved properties with astonishing skill. Paul Thomas Anderson and Kenneth Brannagh also seem like shoo-ins for their well-liked coming-of-age period films. So why do I have a feeling that they won’t be the final 5? Well, because you would have to go back all the way to 1950 to find a Best Director lineup that didn’t include a first time-nominee and Campion, Villeneuve, Spielberg, Anderson, and Brannagh have all been nominated in this category before. When I also consider that this category has a history of omitting frontrunners better known as actors or writers (see Ben Affleck for Argo and Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7) and including an out-of-left-field art house nominee (see Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round), it makes me want to go out on a limb and predict that Brannagh gets a shocking snub and Ruyuske Hamaguchi gets in for the acclaimed Japanese film Drive My Car. Other first-time contenders that have a shot at replacing one of the seeming locks are CODA’s Sian Heder, King Richard’s Reinaldo Marcus Green, and The Lost Daughter’s Maggie Gyllenhaal.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
7. Sian Heder, CODA
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
12. Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
13. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
14. Julia Ducournau, Titane
15. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
16. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
17. Rebecca Hall, Passing
18. Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick…Boom!
19. Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
20. Joe Wright, Cyrano
21. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

BEST ACTRESS

This year’s most hotly contested and unpredictable race, Best Actress initially seemed to belong to Kristen Stewart early on in the race when she received raves for her turn as Princess Diana in Spencer. But then she was snubbed by SAG and BAFTA and her film failed to gain any awards traction in other categories. She could still make it in , but she’s iffy at best. After Stewart’s fall, the leading candidates seemed to be Nicole Kidman for her turn as legendary comedienne Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos and Olivia Colman’s wrenching turn as a guilt-stricken mother in The Lost Daughter. But, interestingly, both were snubbed by BAFTA next last week. The only actress who has shown up virtually everywhere is — surprisingly — Lady Gaga, who seems a shoo-in to get her 4th Oscar nomination (2nd for acting) with House of Gucci. Assuming Colman, Kidman, and Gaga are in, the last 2 spots are up for grabs and there are 7 actresses who have a reasonable shot at taking them. Jessica Chastain’s turn in The Eyes of Tammy Faye has been widely nominated but she has been surprisingly snubbed before by the Academy and her film isn’t particularly well-regarded. Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler made acclaimed film debuts in Licorice Pizza and West Side Story, respectively, but the Academy has been inconsistent in feting ingenues. Jennifer Hudson recently surprised with a SAG nomination for her turn as Aretha Franklin in Respect. And despite not receiving many major precursor nominations, the passion for Parallel Mothers’ Penelope Cruz and Passing’s Tessa Thompson peaked at the exact right time. I’m predicting Chastain and Stewart, but the category could really be any subset of the 10 performances I listed above. It’s rather exciting in its unpredictability.

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Tessa Thompson, Passing
11. Emilia Jones, CODA
12. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
13. Renate Reinseve, The Worst Person in the World
14. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

BEST ACTOR

The two locks here seem to be Benedict Cumberbatch’s sexually repressed cowboy in The Power of the Dog and Will Smith’s turn as Venus and Serena Williams’s determined father in King Richard. They have been included in virtually every Best Actor list this year. There are two other very strong candidates in Andrew Garfield’s turn as Rent composer Jonathan Larson in tick, tick…Boom! and Denzel Washington’s return to Shakespeare in The Tragedy of Macbeth. The final spot is up for grabs. Conventional wisdom says that it will go to a first-time nominee as the category is almost never comprised entirely of previous nominees. I originally thought the spot would go to Cyrano’s Peter Dinklage, but the botched campaign for the film has me thinking the Academy will give Leonardo DiCaprio his 7th acting nomination for his turn in Don’t Look Up.

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
2. Will Smith, King Richard
3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom!
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
7. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
8. Simon Rex, Red Rocket
9. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
10. Nicolas Cage, Pig
11. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
12. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is certainly the most stacked category in this year’s Oscar race. The actresses who have had the best run to date are Caitríona Balfe for her portrayal of a stubborn mother in Belfast and Ariana DeBose for her thrilling re-interpretation of the role of Anita in West Side Story (the role that won Rita Moreno an Oscar 61 years ago). They are likely to be joined by Kirsten Dunst, as a depressed mother in the American frontier in The Power of the Dog. The final two spots really seem up for grabs. My money is on Aunjanue Ellis as Venus and Serena Williams’s mother in King Richard and Ruth Negga as a light-skinned black woman passing as white in 1920s New York in Passing. Both are extraordinary and have had a strong run so far. But there are numerous actresses that could surprise by taking one of the last two spots. They include Cate Blanchett for Nightmare Alley (she was nominated for SAG and had a strong year with this and her role in Don’t Look Up), Ann Dowd for Mass, Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter, Judi Dench for Belfast, Marlee Matlin for CODA, and Rita Moreno herself (she took on the role of Doc in the remake of West Side Story and received great acclaim).

1. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Ruth Negga, Passing
6. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
7. Ann Dowd, Mass
8. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
9. Judi Dench, Belfast
10. Marlee Matlin, CODA
11. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
12. Martha Plimpton, Mass
13. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
14. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter
15. Cate Blanchett, Don’t Look Up
16. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
17. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
18. Gaby Hoffmann, C’mon C’mon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like the Supporting Actress race, this one has two seeming locks, one firm bet, and two spots up for grabs. The locks seem to be Kodi Smit-McPhee, who has dominated awards season for his role as a moody young man protecting his mother in The Power of the Dog, and Troy Kotsur, as a deaf fisherman struggling to keep his family together in CODA. I also suspect that Ciaran Hinds will score his 1st Oscar nomination for his role as the kindly grandfather in Belfast. But the other two spots are genuine head-scratchers. Mike Faist has his share of passionate supporters for his role in West Side Story. Bradley Cooper, Ben Affleck, and Jared Leto received SAG nominations for their turns in Licorice Pizza, The Tender Bar, and House of Gucci but each have their detractors. Cooper’s performance is a glorified cameo, Affleck received a wave of bad press for his comments about his marriage to ex-wife Jennifer Garner, and Leto’s wildly over the top role passionately divided viewers and critics. Jamie Dornan could show up for playing Hinds’s son in Belfast and Jesse Plemons could show up for playing Cumberbatch’s brother in The Power of the Dog, but I am not sure either film has quite the momentum to double up on nominations in this category. Ultimately, I expect Faist’s ambitious performance and the Academy’s sheer love of Bradley Cooper (who has 8 nominations to date and 0 wins) to carry them across the finish line.

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Mike Faist, West Side Story
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast
10. JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos
11. Jon Bernthal, King Richard
12. Jason Isaacs, Mass
13. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
14. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up
15. Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Interestingly, it looks like the Best Original Screenplay category is going to be the weakest of the major categories with 5 nominated screenplays that have notable flaws. Branagh’s screenplay was criticized for being too cutesy and unevenly paced, McKay and Sirota’s for being too heavy-handed and preachy, Anderson’s for glorifying statutory rape and racist humor, Baylin’s for failing to critically examine its flawed protagonist, and Sorkin’s for a number of anachronisms and other questionable choices. Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine any of them missing. However, I would love to see Pedro Almodovar or Fran Kranz surprise for their bold and searing screenplays for Parallel Mothers and Mass, respectively.

1. Kenneth Brannagh, Belfast
2. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Zach Baylin, King Richard
5. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
6. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
7. Fran Kranz, Mass
8. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
9. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
10. Ashgar Farahadi, A Hero
11. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A much stronger category than Best Original Screenplay, this one also has what appears to be 5 clear frontrunners. Campion seems well-poised to get her second nomination — and win — for writing (following 1993’s The Piano). Maggie Gyllenhaal’s psychologically complex adaptation of The Lost Daughter and Sian Heder’s heart-tugging adaptation of the French film La Famille Bélier also look like shoo-ins, which would result in the rarity of this traditionally male-dominated category being dominated by women. The last two spots seem likely to go to Tony Kushner, whose sensitive updating of West Side Story was met with raves, and the team who brought Frank Herbert’s sprawling and dense sci-fi novel Dune successfully to the big screen. In the unlikely event that one of them is snubbed, I suspect that the screenplays for Drive My Car, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, and Nightmare Alley are the next in line.

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Sian Heder, CODA
3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
4. Tony Kushner, West Side Story
5. Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, and Denis Villeneuve, Dune
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Rebecca Hall, Passing
9. Guillermo Del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley
10. Erica Schmidt, Cyrano

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Read recent articles about movies written by this author:

• The 28th Screen Actors Guild Awards
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