Everything You Need to Know About the 93rd Academy Awards

Tomorrow, the long and windy road to the 93rd Academy Awards come to an end when the telecast airs live on ABC. The race has been impacted by the pandemic and profound and unprecedented ways and much remains unknown about how the ceremony will play out and who the winners of several categories will be. Here, I preview the telecast and provide predictions for who will win in all 23 categories.

Author’s Note: This article is about who I think will win the Academy Awards this year. To see who I think should win in the top 8 categories check out my articles on the acting races and the writing, directing, and Best Picture races.

THE ROAD TO THE 93RD ACADEMY AWARDS

Last year’s Oscar ceremony was a notable improvement over the prior year. First of all, there were more inspired winners. Sure, the quartet of acting winners (Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern, and Brad Pitt) was exceedingly predictable by the time Oscar night came along, but most were deserving. The Academy also went from awarding one of the worst Best Picture winners in recent history the prior year (Green Book) to one of the boldest and best (Parasite). In addition to a better slate of winners, I also found the second consecutive host-less telecast to be a significant step up over the first, with more inspired bits, better musical performances, and higher quality presenters. Interestingly, last year’s Oscars telecast was also notable for being the last major live telecast before the pandemic upended all live events as we know them for the foreseeable future.

So what should we expect for this year’s Oscar ceremony? Well it’s anyone’s guess given that COVID-19 resulted in unprecedented changes to nearly every aspect of awards season.

The pandemic’s massive impact on the movie industry forced the Academy to make numerous changes to eligibility. For the first time ever the eligibility period was expanded beyond one year (eligible films had to be released between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021) and movies that premiered on streaming were eligible (as long as they had a theatrical release plan before the pandemic onset). And numerous high-profile, presumed front-runners for this year’s ceremony were delayed to the point of ineligibility due to widespread movie theater closures.

The pandemic also made major changes to the way campaigning occurs. There is a complete lack of in-person “For Your Consideration” events (e.g., Academy screenings, fancy parties) and the greatest campaign events of them all — other awards shows like the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards — have been mostly conducted virtually.

Beyond COVID-19, there is also the Academy’s increasing commitment to inclusivity, which was codified in some controversial changes to future ceremonies announced last fall. This year’s Oscar nominees contain unprecedented diversity, as did their British equivalent (the BAFTAs). For the first time in history, the four SAG awards for individual performances in film all went to non-white actors. There is obviously increased attention to and support for diversity and inclusion among the nominees and winners.

All of these factors have contributed to a race that lacks clear front runners in multiple categories. For example, every major televised award for Best Actress has gone to a different nominee and only a handful of categories have true locks (Chloe Zhao for Best Director and Daniel Kaluuya look exceedingly hard to beat). That makes the races very exciting Sunday night, but it also makes it very hard to predict.

These factors also suggest we are going to get a telecast that will inevitably deviate from tradition in countless ways.

Check out my recap of this year’s Oscar nominations here.

PREVIEWING THE COVID-AFFLICTED CEREMONY

Much of the information about how Sunday’s ceremony will play out is a mystery, but there are several things we do know.

It will be produced by veteran awards show producer Jesse Collins (Grammys, Super Bowl Halftime Show), Oscar-nominated film producer Stacy Sher (Django Unchained, Erin Brockovich), and Oscar-winning filmmaker Steven Soderbergh (Traffic, Erin Brockovich).
Soderbergh has announced his intention for the ceremony to be produced and directed as if it were a film itself (which could be very, very cool or very, very pretentious — or both).
The Academy telecast will occur across multiple venues for the first time. In addition to the Dolby Theater, where the Oscars have been held for many years, L.A.’s historic Union Station will be heavily featured. There is also reportedly in excess of twenty remote venues around the world. This change is due to the fact that the producers were adamant that they didn’t want people videoconferencing into the Oscars, but there was extensive pushback to trying to force all the nominees to come to L.A. for the ceremony given the ongoing travel restrictions globally due to COVID.
For the third consecutive year, there will be no host.
Fifteen presenters (which they are calling the ensemble cast, in fitting with the Oscars-as-a-movie theme) have been confirmed: Angela Bassett, Halle Berry, Bong Joon Ho, Don Cheadle, Bryan Cranston, Laura Dern, Harrison Ford, Regina King, Marlee Matlin, Rita Moreno, Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, Reese Witherspoon, Renée Zellweger, and Zendaya.
All four of last year’s acting winners (Zellweger, Phoenix, Dern, and Pitt) are among the “ensemble,” meaning that the longstanding tradition of the previous year’s winners returning to present the acting awards is likely intact.
In a break with tradition, five songs nominated for Best Original Song will not be performed on the ceremony, but rather during the pre-show entitled Oscars: Into the Spotlight. Four will be performed from the terrace of the soon-to-open Academy Museum of Motion Pictures, while the other will be performed from Iceland (where it originated from).
In another break from tradition, three trailers for upcoming films will debut during the ceremony itself — Steven Spielberg’s remake of Best Picture winner West Side Story, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s big screen adaptation of his stage musical In the Heights, and QuestLove’s documentary about the Harlem Cultural Festival entitled Summer of Soul. To me, this is a strange and risky addition that I am curious to see play out.

Here’s another thing we know — the ratings will be abysmal. All awards shows have hit multi-year or all-time lows this year and there is no reason to suspect the Oscars will be any different. The combination of the excruciatingly long awards season, a nontraditional ceremony, and a relative lack of blockbusters and A-listers among the nominees make it virtually impossible that the show will buck the trend of recent awards shows. But I don’t really care. The Oscar ceremony and all that it stands for will continue to exist even if they substantially decline in viewership. I just care that it’s a good show and that, more importantly, they make wise choices. Speaking of which, now I will get to my predictions.

PREDICTING THE WINNERS IN ALL 23 CATEGORIES

Last year, I correctly predicted 19 of the 24 categories* (79%). My biggest mistakes were not predicting that the Academy would go for critical darling Parasite over industry darling 1917, but I have rarely been happier to be wrong given my love for Parasite. Normally, I would set the goal of improving my accuracy, but given how wildly unpredictable so many categories this year, I will be lucky to do as well as last year. (*Note: There is one less category this year due to the Academy’s decision to lump the two sound categories into one.)

Without further ado, here are my predictions in all 23 categories.

The Specialty Film Categories:

Best Animated Feature: Onward; Over the Moon; A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon; Soul; Wolfwalkers. There has been a recent swell of support for the inventive and moving Irish import Wolfwalkers, but it seems unlikely that it can topple the latest Pixar offering, which has a heavy and Academy friendly premise, strong reviews, and was widely seen due to its launch on Disney+. Will Win: Soul Possible Upset: Wolfwalkers

Best International Film: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina); Another Round (Denmark); Better Days (Hong Kong); Collective (Romania); The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia). Another Round has to be considered hte clear favorite as it is the only one of these nominees to get nominated elsewhere (and in Best Director, no less!). However, I strongly suspect the film will have a serious challenger in the late-breaking (and in my opinion, superior) Bosnian war drama Quo Vadis, Aida? I would not be surprised to see an upset here. Will Win: Another Round Possible Upset: Quo Vaids, Aida?

Best Documentary Feature: Collective; Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution; The Mole Agent; My Octopus Teacher; Time. The Netflix saga about a naturalist and filmmaker bonding with an octopus has the clear momentum for a win. If there’s an upset my guess is Time, which tells a powerful story of a fight for clemency. Will Win: My Octopus Teacher Possible Upset: Time

Best Documentary Short Subject: Colette; A Concerto Is a Conversation; Do Not Split; Hunger Ward; A Love Song for Latasha. The industry favorite seems to be A Concerto is a Conversation, but it would be unwise to count out Hunger Ward, a heartbreaking look at the famine in Yemen. Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation Possible Upset: Hunger Ward

Best Animated Short Film: Burrow; Genius Loci; If Anything Happens I Love You; Opera; Yes-People. The heavy subject matter of If Anything Happens I Love You seems likely to win out over the charming latest Pixar entry Burrow. Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You Possible Upset: Burrow

Best Live Action Short Film: Feeling Through; The Letter Room; The Present; Two Distant Strangers; White Eye. The Letter Room and Feeling Through have big stars attached (Star Wars actor Oscar Isaac stars in the former and Oscar winning actress Marlee Matlin produced the latter), but I suspect Two Distant Strangers to be too topical to ignore, as it covers police killings of black men. Will Win: Two Distant Strangers Possible Upset: The Letter Room

The Technical/Craft Categories:

Best Original Score: Da 5 Bloods; Mank; Minari; News of the World; Soul. The trio behind Soul’s memorable jazz score will and should win this award. If there’s an upset, I suspect it’s the lovely score for Minari, which richly enhanced the film. Will Win: Soul Possible Upset: Minari

Best Original Song: “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah; “Io Sì (Seen)” The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se); “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami; “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7. The smart money is probably on Leslie Odom Jr.’s original song for One Night in Miami, but I suspect that Dianne Warren will finally get her Oscar for the Italian song that was the theme to Sophia Loren’s comeback film The Life Ahead. It would be utterly delightful, however, to see the wacky “Husavik” upset in this weak lineup. Will Win: “Io Sì (Seen)” The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se) Possible Upset: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

Best Cinematography: Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; News of the World; Nomadland; The Trial of the Chicago 7. The effective use of black-and-white and overall rich visuals of Mank could result in an upset, but the stunning vistas, heartbreaking closeups, and memorable imagery of Nomadland seems hard to beat. Will Win: Nomadland Possible Upset: Mank

Best Costume Design: Emma; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; Mulan; Pinocchio. The late 1920s stylings of Ma Rainey seem like a lock for a win here, although the lush period detail of the Jane Austen adaptation Emma. and the Citizen Kane origin story Mank can’t be entirely counted out. Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Possible Upset: Emma.

Best Sound Design: Greyhound; Mank; News of the World; Soul; Sound of Metal. For many years this award was two separate categories — Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing. The Academy made the decision to lump them into one this year, meaning that this is technically the first time this award will ever be given out. So who will win it? The overwhelming favorite is — and should be — Sound of Metal, an entire film about sound that brilliantly brings the viewers into the protagonist’s experience with hearing loss. If there is an upset, my bet is on Soul, which also brilliantly and uniquely uses sound (particularly jazz music). Will Win: Sound of Metal Possible Upset: Soul

Best Production Design: The Father; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Tenet. All five of these films are worthy nominees. Despite its flaws, Tenet is a visual stunner. News of the World is a richly detailed Western. The remarkably nuances of The Father are integral to the film’s narrative. The 1920s Chicago created for Ma Rainey is immersive. Any of them could upset, but my money is on Mank, which recreated Old Hollywood elaborately and expansively. Will Win: Mank Possible Upset: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Film Editing: The Father; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago 7. Each of the five nominees has a corresponding Best Picture nomination and would arguably make a worthy winner. I suspect that this race will come down to The Trial of the Chicago 7, which was effectively cut to turn what could have been a dry legal drama into a political thriller, and Sound of Metal, which is a powerful, immersive, and inventive experience undoubtedly facilitated by its editing. Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 Possible Upset: Sound of Metal

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Emma; Hillbilly Elegy; Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Mank; Pinocchio. Personally, I didn’t find the makeup and hairstyling of Ma Rainey to be overwhelmingly impressive, but it appears to have widespread support in this category based on precursor awards and industry chatter. Some are saying that Pinocchio could upset and, while that is certainly possible I never count out the artists who make beautiful, recognizable A-listers look like ugly, unrecognizable common folk. Thus, I think Hillbilly Elegy is in the best position to spoil here. Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Possible Upset: Hillbilly Elegy

Best Visual Effects: Love and Monsters; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; The One and Only Ivan; Tenet. With so many high-profile blockbusters delayed due to the theater closures, this is a weaker lineup than usual. It appears to be a two-way race between George Clooney’s space saga The Midnight Sky and Christopher Nolan’s time-bending thriller Tenet. My money is on the latter. Will Win: Tenet Possible Upset: The Midnight Sky

The Top 8:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman and Lee Kern, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland; Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami; Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger. This is another two-way race. I suspect that The White Tiger is the film nominated in the top 8 categories that was least seen by Oscar voters. The Borat screenplay will offend many and be written off by others (perhaps unfairly) for the film’s reliance on improvisation. Kemp Powers should be a real player for One Night in Miami, but many voters will likely suspet (perhaps unfairly) that not much adaptation went in putting the stage play on screen. That leaves Christopher Hamptom and Florian Zeller’s spellbinding, labyrinthine script for The Father facing off against Zhao’s sensitive, lyrical script for Nomadland. I think the former could very well take it, but ultimately expect that Zhao will sweep her categories. Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland Possible Upset: Christopher Hamptom and Florian Zeller, The Father

Best Original Screenplay: Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah; Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman Darius Marder and Abraham Marder, Sound of Metal; Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7. All five of these nominated screenplays have corresponding Best Picture nominations and I suspect will get a decent share of votes. However, I suspect this is a two-way race between veteran screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (Emmy winner for The West Wing, Oscar winner for The Social Network) and up-and-comer Emerald Fennell. A second trophy for Sorkin is a very real possibility, but Fennell’s blisteringly original and highly divisive screenplay was one of the year’s unexpected highlights and her nomination in Best Director (for her feature film directorial debut, no less) shows that she has immense support. Will Win: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman Possible Upset: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal; LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah. This one seems pretty much locked up. Daniel Kaluuya has won virtually every major Best Supporting Actor award so far, he is a well-respected pervious nominee, and his film outperformed expectations in terms of Oscar nominations. The only possible detractor is that the surprise — and utterly bizarre — inclusion of his co-lead LaKeith Stanfield alongside him in this category could lead to vote splitting. If Kaluuya has a challenger, it’s Sacha Baron Cohen’s dramatic turn. He is well-respected and he had a hell of a year showing off his versatility with this and the sequel to Borat being released weeks apart. Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah Possible Upset: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The Father; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-jung Youn, Minari. This race is almost as wildly unpredictable as Best Actress. First, film legend Glenn Close seemed a lock to finally win after 7 losses, but the horrid reviews for her film and the fact that she lost every single precursor seemed to indicate she will be an also-ran (again). Then the focus shifted to Maria Bakalova, a virtual unknown whose unconventional turn in a very unconventional film swept the critics awards. Finally, the focus seems to have settled on Yuh-jung Youn, whose affecting and quirky performance was recently feted by SAG and BAFTA. My money is on Youn, with Bakalova as a possible spoiler. Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari Possible Upset: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Anthony Hopkins, The Father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari. Gary Oldman has virtually not shot, given that many were unimpressed with his turn and he so recently won in this category. And as astounding as Steven Yeun and Riz Ahmed were, I suspect that they don’t have the momentum to topple the heavyweights that are duking it out for first place. Up until a few weeks ago, Chadwick Boseman looked absolutely unbeatable for his blistering and brilliant final film performance. But then people started discovering Anthony Hopkins’ harrowing work in the late-breaking The Father and it became a real race (especially after Hopkins upset Boseman at the BAFTAs). I still think Boseman will come out on top, but this one unexpectedly — and excitingly — turned into a real race in the final stretch. Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Possible Upset: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Best Actress: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman. This year’s Best Actress race is the most competitive major Oscar category in years. Each of the four major awards so far have gone to a different nominee, with Davis taking SAG, McDormand taking BAFTA, Day taking the Globe, and Mulligan taking the Critics’ Choice. Any of the five women (even Kirby) could take this and each of them would be richly deserving. (It’s an all-time great lineup.) Ultimately, I suspect that the Academy will be hesitant to give McDormand the rare third acting Oscar and that voters will struggle to connect with Day and Kirby’s films. That leaves Carey Mulligan vs. Viola Davis. The former’s performance has passionate support among critics, pundits, and its fervent fan base, while the latter is a beloved veteran who has been campaigning hard and whose win would be historic (she would be only the second black actress to win this award in the ceremony’s 93-year history). The smart money is on Davis, but I suspect that she is vulnerable due to being overshadowed by Chadwick Boseman’s final role in the same film and the fact that the Academy failed to nominate the film in several key categories (including Best Picture). So I am going to go with my gut and predict Mulligan. Will Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman. Possible Upset: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

My predicted winners for the four acting categories

Best Director: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman; David Fincher, Mank; Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland. Chloe Zhao has won virtually every Best Director award in existence for her brilliant work on Nomadland and there do not seem to be any major challengers for an upset. Even those Oscar pundits who are predicting some huge surprises are all safely betting on Zhao. If anyone could upset, I suspect that it will be Emerald Fennell, whose blistering debut has its share of passionate industry support. Although one can never count out the Academy giving a long overdue trophy to David Fincher, especially when his film led hte nominations and is a tribute to Old Hollywood. Will Win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland. Possible Upset: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Best Picture: The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; Minari; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago 7. This appears to be a two-way race between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland is the heavy favorite given that it picked up the top award from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Golden GLobes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA Awards so far. It is also the best reviewed of this year’s nominees and appears to be a lock in Best Director (which tends to correspond with Best Picture, although decidedly less so in recent years). The Trial of the Chicago 7 has significant detractors — it missed a Best Director nomination that some thought was sure bet, it has to overcome the stigma of Netflix movies at the Oscars, and it has lost every single time it went head-to-head with Nomadland. However, it did win the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which has predicted Oscar upsets in the past (e.g., Shakespeare in Love, Crash, Parasite). It is also by far the most traditional of the nominees and the most appealing to older white voters, who — despite the Academy’s hard push toward diversity — still make up the lion’s share of the membership. If there is an out of left field upset, the only possibilities I can conceive of are Promising Young Woman and Minari. I suspect, however, that the former is too divisive and the latter lacks the passionate support to push it to the top. Will Win: Nomadland Possible Upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Check out who I think should win in the top 8 categories check out my articles on the acting races and the writing, directing, and Best Picture races.

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